Fun with Numbers, Round Two -- Who Could Dance with Dallas on Draft Day?

by Rafael Vela on Apr 6, 2005 12:12 AM CDT in Dallas Cowboys News

Jerry Jones has an itchy trigger finger.

The Cowboys owner loves wheeling and dealing on draft day. So much so that he sometimes gets more caught up in getting value on his draft card than in getting value with the players he selects. Jerry is already dropping hints that he might pull one or more deals this year.

Two types of deals are being suggested. The first is a drop down from the 20th pick in order to get extra selections in the second round and/or reclaim a third round selection after sending Dallas' to Houston for Drew Henson. The other option is to repeat 2004, and trade out of the first round to gather an extra first rounder in 2006. Jones recently said, "that's a very real consideration because usually the opportunity is there, and I may do it." Since this draft is considered weak at the top, with no must-have quarterbacks, pass rushers, defensive tackles or offensive tackles, a top pick next year might be more valuable than one now.

The question is what type of deal might Jones find, and what teams are likely to trade with him? The second question is almost impossible to determine before the clock starts on April 24th. Nobody, for example, could have predicted last year that Buffalo would be such a strong suitor for J.P. Losman until the deal occurred. Since this draft is so uneven, with the value of players varying wildly, it is hard to know what players might fall in the first round, generating instant desire among some mysterious team and an equally instant deal.

What we can determine is the relative value of the Cowboys' second pick. Let's assume that Dallas will use the 11th pick and put the 20th up for bid. What type of deal might we see? I'll consider same day trades -- trading for picks this year, or a futures trade, where a 2006 pick is part of Jerry's bargain.

Same day trade value The Cowboys 20th pick is worth 850 points. There is always the possibility that a team at the bottom of the round, somebody like the Eagles, the Patriots, the Steelers or the Falcons could jump up a few spots, leaving Dallas in the late first, but giving them points value equal to a third rounder. Let's take the Falcons as a hypothetical. If they called Dallas on draft day and offered to swap their 27th pick for Dallas 20th (lets say, for argument's sake, that they wanted Mark Clayton), Dallas would be due 170 points. That is the equivalent of a late third round pick, and perhaps a sixth or seventh rounder. Any trades with teams picking after Atlanta in the first round would generate similar value.

Another option is trading out of the first round, as the Cowboys did last year in the Julius Jones trade. There are two teams with two second rounders, the Eagles and the Packers. If Dallas were to deal with Green Bay, the Cowboys could drop from 20 to 51 and also pick up the Packers 59th pick and a fourth rounder, leaving the Pokes with three second rounders and two fourths.

A similar swap with the Eagles would likely yield both of Philly's seconds, the 35th and 63rd overall, as well as a fifth rounder. This would give Dallas picks at the top, middle and end of the second round, something to consider in a year where round two is not that much different from the end of round one. (Philadelphia has also been an active trader in recent years, moving up to obtain DE Jerome McDougle in '03 and OT Shawn Andrews last year.)

The value of a futures trade Let's look at the Julius Jones trade for insight into how another futures trade would work. Last year, Dallas had the 22nd pick, which is valued at 780 points. Buffalo offered its second rounder, the 43rd overall, which is worth 470 points. The difference is 310 points, or the value of a late second round pick. As I pointed out in part two of the draft series, futures picks are upgraded one round. Buffalo could either have given Dallas a second 2004 second rounder or a 2005 first. Not having an extra second rounder, they chose the latter.

This is the type of deal we would expect from teams in the middle of the first round that feel they are only a player or two away from making a deep playoff run. Teams like Minnesota, Kansas City, Baltimore or Seattle fit this profile. On the other hand, it is also the type of deal a rebuilding team would make if that key player starts to fall. Imagine that on draft day, Alex Smith gets out of the top 10 and starts to slide. Teams like the Dolphins, Browns, Cardinals or Packers, who desperately need a future QB, could ring the phone at Valley Ranch and make it deja vu all over again for Cowboys fans.

Judging from Jerry Jones' tone, it is clear that his phone has already been ringing and the offers are starting to sound tempting. Unless a top 12 rated player falls to the 20th spot, I'll bet that Trader Jerry will emerge yet again this year to fill day one with intrigue.

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Comments

Rafael,

I have a hard time accepting the future trade value formula, where the upgrade is a full round. If that is the case, the trader should always accept the trade (and is why the trade with Buffalo was a very good deal for Dallas).

Consider the following example. Take the Dallas #20 pick, worth 850 points. Jerry trades it for the #35 pick, worth 550, leaving 300 points which is the value of a late 2nd rounder or a 2006 1st rounder, which he takes. Now he trades the #35 pick for the number #68 pick, worth 250 points, with another 300 points left over and thus another 2006 1st rounder. He then trades the #68 pick for the #97 pick (worth 112 points), leaving 138 points – which is the value of a late 3rd rounder, so he takes a 2006 2nd rounder. He then trades the #97 pick for the #114 pick (worth 56 points) and converts the remaining 56 points for a 2006 3rd rounder. Finally, the #114 pick is trader for the #202 pick, worth 10 points, yielding another 2006 3rd rounder.

In summary that 2005 #20 pick yields a 2005 7th round pick, plus from 2006, two picks from the first round, one from the second round and two more from the third.

If I had all those picks to trade from 2006, I don’t think I would give them up for the 2005 1st overall pick, much less the 20th overall pick. That tells me that the futures valuation of downgrading a full round is not a fair valuation.

by Cly on Apr 6, 2005 11:26 AM CDT reply actions

i may not understand everything about the points system, but the only way that i trade the 20th pick is for a later 1st rounder and a 3rd, or 2 2nd rounders. As far as picking up a 2006 pick. i would accept a 2nd rounder, and a fourth this year, and a first rounder next year. Just like the bills trade was. i thought that was a good trade. “but that is just my opinion”

by Darrell on Apr 6, 2005 12:01 PM CDT reply actions

Cly,

I first heard the futures concept explained by Jimmy Johnson himself. Now, understand,
despite what Jerry is saying, I think very few teams are willing to trade futures picks.
Especially future #1s. They would rather take those 300 points and either give you
the 2nd now or a 3rd and a 5th….

I think what Jerry is banking on is the fact that in any given year there will be at
least ONE team willing to give you next year’s #1. And really that’s all it takes.

by Rafael Vela on Apr 6, 2005 12:09 PM CDT reply actions

I like the idea of trading down this year to acquire more/recoup first day picks, but not so keen on futures trading. I absolutely loved the deal the ‘Boys made last year (especially considering Julius’ performance), but the idea of trading away today for the sake of tomorrow indefinitely is not very appealing to me. If the deal is too good to pass on I’d have to take it, but I’m not interested in anything remotely close to ‘equal’ value. I’m talking Herschel Walker part deux… :)

And FWIW, the draft value chart is a valuable reference, but is not the same from year to year from what I understand. Some draft classes are stronger/weaker than others, and what a top ten player is worth one year may not be considered equal value the next.

by Paul on Apr 6, 2005 12:14 PM CDT reply actions

esspecially a team like the eagles that think that they may be only player or two from winning it all. and they have a lot of drafts to play with. why not trade some of their drafts to upgrade on the board. i can see their point. i wished dallas have their problems.

by Darrell on Apr 6, 2005 12:17 PM CDT reply actions

Paul,

You might be right, but I think the value only changes in the top ten or dozen or so. The charts only work if there is some standard in play. Otherwise, teams would disagree and keep their picks. I also know teams use slightly different charts, but they don’t vary by much.

by Rafael Vela on Apr 6, 2005 1:29 PM CDT reply actions

I FEEL LIKE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS THE COWBOYS HAVE NOT USED THE DRAFT PROPERLY. I BELIEVE YOUR FIRST ROUND PICKS SHOULD BE USED TO POWER YOUR OFFENCE FOR THE MOST PART. SINCE WE`RE IN THE DELIMA THAT WE`RE IN, WE NOW NEED THE NUMBER 11 PICK TO GRAB THE BEST DEEP SAFTY WE CAN GET OUR HANDS ON. AND SINCE WE`RE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO ALSO HAVE THE NUMBER 20 PICK, YOU CAN POSIBLY GRAB THAT WORLD CLASS SPRINTER THAT CAN STRETCH THE FIELD. IF YOU WANT TO TAKE RISKS? DO IT WITH NUMBERS UNDER 500 ON YOUR DRAFT CHART.

by SCOTT MEADOWS on Apr 6, 2005 2:41 PM CDT reply actions

Scott,

There is no safety in the draft worth the 11th pick.

by Tony on Apr 6, 2005 10:21 PM CDT reply actions

I understand the whole reasoning behind trading picks. I’m still tire of trading though, especially for future picks. Let’s just get some good players with our picks and get a good team together. At the rate we’re going, that would happen, but when…2010. How much trading for future picks were when we rebuilt for the Superbowls in the 90’s? (honestly, i don’t know)?

by chris on Apr 7, 2005 1:44 PM CDT reply actions

Chris,

One big trade, Herschel for a whole boat load of picks from the Vikings.

Best Trade ever for the Cowboys……..Johnson had put Herschel up and did one hech of a job selling him. He had a pretty good run with the Cowboys, and his College and USFL numbers were fresh in the minds of Minnesota fans that saw him as the missing piece to their puzzle.

At first some fans balked, Herschel had become our best player. All hope seemed lost, but ole Jimmy had a plan. He stockpiled the team with young talent at every position. He missed on plenty, and he hit home runs on some dirt balls………but he went with youth and speed and transformed a Cowboys Offense and Defense.

And as they say……..you know the rest of the story.

by Jon on Apr 7, 2005 1:59 PM CDT reply actions