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Jerry Jones the Smoke Machine

NFL mediots and Cowboys fans alike look to Valley Ranch for draft signals in the same way Vatican watchers looked for white smoke to signal the selection of a new pope. And Jerry Jones is all too happy to provide his own smoke, even if its of an amorphous variety.

Yesterday, he told a crowd at an American Diabetes Association fundraiser that Dallas is getting lots of offers for their two first rounders and might trade down from picks 11 and 20. Jones suggested that a trade down from the top pick might be a small one, allowing the Cowboys to acquire another pick(s) and still be in range for one of their top targets.

Later, he told the same crowd that the Cowboys might also consider moving up with either the 11th or 20th picks. The more likely of these scenarios would have Dallas moving up a little from pick 20.

These hints suggest to me that Dallas has the draft strategy predicted by Sports Illustrated's Paul Zimmerman in his mock. He has Dallas picking Demarcus Ware at 11, but then says,

The Cowboys' A-list of outside pass rushers includes Ware, Merriman and Marcus Spears. They want two of them. The problem is which one goes first -- how they can position themselves to have a shot at another one at pick No. 20?

I've wondered the same thing. I've been running mock scenarios on paper and find it hard to get one of that trio to pick 20. The last one always drops off the board somewhere around Cincinnati's 17th pick or Minnesota's 18th pick. Zimmerman apparently agrees. When he awards Spears to Dallas at pick 20, he writes,

Do I think he'll still be on the board? Frankly, no. But I do believe Dallas will wind up with him somehow, and I get a hit on the chart if they get him at some juncture.

I think Jones' mention that Dallas could trade up from 20 is his way of addressing that "somehow" about Spears that Zimmerman mentions.

What trade options are available at both 11 and 20 that could still satisfy the Cowboys need for a top level rusher?

At pick 11 you could see a slight drop down for teams like the Chiefs and Saints. Both of these organizations apparently love Georgia S Thomas Davis. I can only see this happening if a running back like Cedric Benson or a WR like Troy Williamson falls to pick 11. The Chargers and Texans pick immediately after Dallas and have exactly the same needs on defense, finding 3-4 ends and OLBs. Unless there are other options for them, Dallas could get too cute by trading down and leaving players they really like for the Chargers and Texans.

At pick 20 Dallas might find it necessary to move up two to three spaces to grab the last of the top-tier rushing prospects. The most likely trade target is Cincy at 17. The cost of moving up is 150 points, or a mid third rounder. The cost of moving to 18 is only 50 points, or a fifth rounder. But this move seems unlikely, since the Vikings and Cowboys would probably be targeting the same player.

In the meantime, try not to choke on the heavy smoke Jerry is floating and take some comfort in the fact that he sounds confident entering Saturday.

Star-divide

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This is right on, I think we may very well be looking to trade up from the 20 spot. The value of this draft seems to peak around 18 or so, and drops sharply after that especially for defensive players.

I would add that their assesment of Pollack is the additional variable. I do think he will be there at 20, so the part of the question is do you draft Spears at 11 and hope that Ware/Merriman/Pollack is still there at 20, knowing that you might have to trade up for Ware or Merriman.

Problem of course is we don’t have a third. I am little hesitant about giving up next years second, what it would probably take to move up 3 or 3 spots. Giving up next years 3rd and 5th goes over a lot easier.

by Rob on Apr 22, 2005 11:43 AM CDT reply actions  

Reading this post, my only concern is that Dallas WILL get too cute and try to do too much in order to get extra pick. Hey, we’ve got 2 first rounders. I say we use them on players that can come in and have an impact.

by Rob2 on Apr 22, 2005 11:59 AM CDT reply actions  

I would love to end up with Merriman and Ware, but wouldnt complain with Spears. I like the potential of both Merriman and Ware, they both look like beasts on the field. I think the only way this plan doesnt fold out is if Mike Williams for some reason drops. I don’t think Jerry and Bill could pass him up, being considered the best player in the draft by some guru’s such as Mel Kiper. Spears is the best bet for being there at 20. Merriman def wont last that long, and I think Ware goes anywhere from 15-18 range.

by Lou on Apr 22, 2005 12:02 PM CDT reply actions  

From FoxSports:

The Panthers worked out LSU defensive end Marcus Spears and he could be their No. 1 pick.

The Vikings are counting on taking David Pollack with their second first-round pick at No. 18.

by Rob on Apr 22, 2005 12:09 PM CDT reply actions  

I think at 11, our board should look like this:

1. Mike Williams
2. Shawne Merriman
3. DeMarcus Ware

At 20 it should look like this:

1. DeMarcus Ware
2. Marcus Spears
3. David Pollack
3b. Mark Clayton

I would rather have Mark Clayton and Justin Tuck than David Pollack and a WR in the 2nd.

by Lou on Apr 22, 2005 12:15 PM CDT reply actions  

If all goes as most of the mocks have it, I think you’ve got to try to get Merriman with that 11th pick if at all possible. I’d be happy to see Ware with that pick if Meriman is gone, but here’s a question for anyone willing to take a stab at it. What would you do if none of the top defensive guys are gone at 11? Do you go with Johnson, and pick up a DE at 20? That’s what I think I’d do.

by Rob2 on Apr 22, 2005 12:31 PM CDT reply actions  

Rob,

Johnson would be very hard to pass up! I think that I still would go Merriman or Ware. No question about it, I would hate to have to make that decision. I still think that we trade the 11th spot and pick up a later 1st and a mid to late 2nd!

One more quality body could make the diffrence..(still gettign two of the top 25!!!)

by Chadd on Apr 22, 2005 12:41 PM CDT reply actions  

Rob2,

I’m sticking with Spears at 11, only because there’s one guy like him and there are six of the other guys — Ware, Merriman, James, Pollack, Cody and Tuck — who can play the OLB role in a 3-4. There is a fair chance that one of the Ware, Merriman, Pollack, James bunch could be at 20. Cody will be there. From what I’ve read the past few days there is a decent chance Tuck is available at 42. The odds are much better taking the DE first and the OLB second. I’m not privy to their board, but unless they are convinced a guy like Ware is simply a cut above all the other guys, my first choice is Spears.

by Rafael Vela on Apr 22, 2005 12:41 PM CDT reply actions  

Rafael, Chadd, thanks for the opinions. I haven’t seen Spears play so I’ll trust your instincts on this one, so I won’t be pissed off if Spears is our guy, or if we trade down A FEW spots. I just want somebody who can make a difference. No, I want 2 guys who can make a difference. A good pick at 42 would be great too, but I just don’t think the boys will be able to pass up trading one of those picks.

by Rob2 on Apr 22, 2005 12:47 PM CDT reply actions  

Rafeal,

In saying that, is it fair to “assume” that you don’t see a DE trade w/ N.O or NYJ?

by Chadd on Apr 22, 2005 12:48 PM CDT reply actions  

I feel if we can make that trade(NYJ or N.O.) for the #42 pick, we do it and get a LB and S with what ever two 1st round picks we end up with…. thoughts?

Merriman
Poole
Howard

by Chadd on Apr 22, 2005 12:52 PM CDT reply actions  

You cant trade with the jets for abraham. He didn’t sign his franchise tender offer so he cant be traded. I would give the Saints our second round pick for Howard but thats it.

by Derrick on Apr 22, 2005 12:57 PM CDT reply actions  

I agree I would only give the 42nd for Howard. I don’t like what I’ve heard about Derrick Johnson though. It doesnt sound like he would be a good fit. If Merriman and Ware were somehow gone, I would take Spears. If the Howard deal goes through, take a OLB, Ware/Merriman at 11, and at 20 either Clayton or Pool, whoever is higher on the board

by Lou on Apr 22, 2005 1:11 PM CDT reply actions  

Any thoughts on Erasmus James or Darryl Blackstock?

by Rob2 on Apr 22, 2005 1:13 PM CDT reply actions  

James is definitely talented…….probably more of a 4-3 guy but has two issues……….failed a drug test to Marijuana(so did Warren Sapp but hey a lot of people missed on him……….and had that injury that kept him out of one season

the other thing is he was involved in a late hit that injured the other player…….some wonder if it changed him cuz he did not have the kind of season he was having after that……..

A talented football player though.

I see a lot of mocks have us getting Blackstock from UVA. Al Groh a Parcells prodigy also……..Chris Slade came out of UVA a long long time ago. Blackstock was higher rated last year than this. He seems to be pretty solid ball player. Had a few off field issues………but if everybody knew everything I did in college i never would have got a job either…….

by Jon on Apr 22, 2005 1:17 PM CDT reply actions  

Also, I’m hearing now that Parcells is talking to Maurice Clarett. Seems like a risk to me, but if he gets picked up in the late rounds, it shouldn’t be a wasted pick.

by Rob2 on Apr 22, 2005 1:25 PM CDT reply actions  

The only worry I have about James is the injuries. Blackstock looks ok but give me Ware over him any day. As for Clarett, I’m one of the few Cowboys fans that think we dont really need to pick up a runner. Julius will be fine and rush for 1500 yards next season. He proved he can carry the load.

by Lou on Apr 22, 2005 1:37 PM CDT reply actions  

Regarding James,

I wonder if he’s the guy hiding in plain sight? Who’s the one rusher who DIDN’T come to the Cowboys banquet? James. All the other guys on the rush list, save for Spears, did.

And he’s the one guy who keeps getting forgotten in the mocks. The draft book I have in front of me right now rates him the top DE and yet, most mocks have him going between 18 to Minnesota to one I saw that had him dropping to Green Bay at 24.

To my eyes, and I got to see him play five times last year, he’s the guy most able to step into a 4-3 scheme and play right away. Plus, I’ve read that he did 3-4 OLB drills at the combine and at Wisconsin’s pro day. I read he looked smooth. He’s the same size as Merriman, but has more time as a hand-down 4-3 end.

I don’t know where his ratings go, but if he were to fall to 20 because of his drug test (where did you read this Jon, I had not heard of it) I would not complain at all.

by Rafael Vela on Apr 22, 2005 1:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Well guys, I’m headed out. Great talking to you, and I’ll see you on the other side of the draft.

COWBOYS FOR LIFE!

by Rob2 on Apr 22, 2005 1:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Rob2,

Were did you get your Clarett info? Put aside the fact that he hasn’t played in forever and his off the field woes, oh lets not forget the 40 times.

On tape he is UNBELIEVABLE, he does all the little things.

My only knock on Jones is he was inconsistant. When we needed him to step up at the end of the year and beat N.O, he didn’t get it done. I can only hope he can average 100 yrds a game, because with out it, it doesn’t look good. He has to be the guy to get everybody else going…

by Chadd on Apr 22, 2005 1:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Julius won us our games last year. Inconsistent? He averaged 27 carries, 115 yards and a TD when he was healthy. Those are monster numbers, and now he has a better line to run in front AND Dan Campell is healthy. He can carry us next season if we needed him to.

by Lou on Apr 22, 2005 2:27 PM CDT reply actions  

I hope that Dallas takes Spears with their first pick, however what do you all think of then taking a wr with the 20th pick? Like Clayton or Williamson? Also, what do you think of the chances that Tuck will be available with the 42nd pick?

by Ashley on Apr 22, 2005 2:52 PM CDT reply actions  

Rafael,

Right on with James!! At first I wrote that I didn’t see enough of him, but the NFL network had player previews (about 10-15 min long for each player at the combine) and he looked smooth. It showed highlights of players during the season, stats on the player, and some of their workout at the combine. Considering James started playing football in his senior year of high school, his excellent hand technique and proper assignment discipline tells me he is a very good listener, a very good student. From what I saw he is the smoothest pass rusher. Shed blocks extremely well, and has explosive closing speed. A perfect fit with the rest of the D-line for the 4-3, as you said “ready to play right now”. If we take him with 11, there is a chance that Spears falls to 20, especially with the teams right behind Dallas looking for speed rushers, I wouldn’t call Spears a speed guy, a hybrid as scouts call ’em.

by Eric on Apr 22, 2005 3:08 PM CDT reply actions  

I would take Maurice Clarett as a WALK ON FA only. Maybe a late 6th rounder if we had picks to spare. Otherwise give a guy a chance who did not turn his back on his team, his school.

Having said that OSU does not win a National Title and go undefeated without him in the lineup. He was amazing for one year in the BIG 10 and in beating Miami for the National Title.

Rafael,

Might have been USA Today paper, Fox, ESPN, or NFL……that is what I read mostly. Not sure it was a character column on the DEs. Maybe it was the Pasquerelli article on DEs about a week ago or so.

He had a very productive year last year. My Wisconsin Badger Big 10 insider was telling me about him maybe having lost a little bit of fire over the injury to an opposing player. Not sure, but BIG 10 guys face a very competitive Offensive Line in Michigan, OSU, Michigan State and the many other power houses. Those schools have 5th year seniors just weighting(no pun intended) to start at O Line…..he faced as good as competition is out there on the LINE.

I think he is falling due to the injury as much as the marijuana thing. I ain’t even sure when that was could have been earlier in college. I like him, as far as Spears goes he offers more size and versatility as a LINEMAN in a 3-4 or 4-3………if James can play OLB why not Ellis, Glover, or anybody else in the league?

by Jon on Apr 22, 2005 6:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Plain and simply. If Spears is there at 11…take him and then feel in the wholes. Why hell even if they wanted to get cute and screw up we still have spears. Although, in my mind it would be next to impossible to past on Johnson.

by darrell w on Apr 22, 2005 6:16 PM CDT reply actions  

I’m with you Darrell take spears at 11. Shaun Cody is that same type of player who can play de and dt but I think Spears is way better. do what you like at 20. this draft is going to get a little crazy if smith doesn’t go to san francisco. A whole lot of players could fall and teams will be looking to catch a falling star.

by LaMonte on Apr 22, 2005 10:24 PM CDT reply actions  

i do not want a falling star……….i want a rising NEPTUNE

by Jon on Apr 23, 2005 1:29 AM CDT reply actions  

In case anyone is still interested…

Darryl Blackstock broke Lawrence Taylor’s ACC career sack record for a linebacker as a junior this past season and I would imagine that he pinged loudly on Parcells’ radar screen in doing so. Where that radar correlates on the Cowboys draft board remains to be seen however. Personally, as a UVA fan, I want nothing more than to find Darryl Blackstock earning his star in this year’s training camp. Check out this excerpt from an NFL.com article by Alan Hancock:

â€Å"Blackstock Set to Re-revolutionize Linebacking

So where is the next Derrick Thomas? The next Lawrence Taylor?

That role might fall to Darryl Blackstock, an outside linebacker from the University of Virginia. Blackstock, an early entrant into the draft, started all but one game (38 of 39) during his three-year career for the Cavaliers and finished with 27 career sacks, the second-highest total in school history (behind Chris Slade, another ping). His 11 sacks in 2004 were the most in the nation by a linebacker and earned him second-team All-ACC honors.”

I am also hoping the Cowboys take a shot on Chris Canty for depth in the fifth or sixth rounds if heâ€â"¢s still available. And Iâ€â"¢d make a small wager on Parcells (or Belichick or Crennel) signing DT Andrew Hoffman as a rookie free-agent soon after the draft. Al Groh loved this kid and would presumably lobby on his behalf with at least one of his NFL connections; Groh called him the anchor on his defensive line.

by StarStruck on Apr 23, 2005 2:42 AM CDT reply actions  

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