The Dangerous Lure of a Third Round Pick

by Rafael Vela on Apr 22, 2005 1:21 PM CDT

Back in 1996, the Cowboys received a gift from the football gods -- and promptly threw it back.

High off their third Super Bowl win in three years, the Cowboys had the 30th and last pick in the first round. Their top need was a defensive end, since Charles Haley's back was giving out and '94 first rounder Shante Carver was showing no signs of becoming an impact player, much less a good one.

As the first round wore on, Texas DE Tony Brackens began to slip. The second rated DE that year behind Illinois' Simeon Rice, Brackens was rated the 12th best player overall by Pro Football Weekly. When the Cowboys came on the clock, Brackens was at the top of the board. Jerry Jones even called Brackens, asking him if he was ready to become a Cowboy. Given that Brackens was not only a Longhorn, but a real life cowboy who competed in rodeos, selecting him would have been a PR coup.

But something funny happened on the way to a perfect fit. The Cowboys received a late offer from Washington. The Redskins' GM Charlie Casserley was desperate to draft Penn St. OT Andre Johnson, and was convinced he would not be around when Washington picked at 37. In exchange for moving down seven spots, Washington offered its high third round selection.

In the language of draft value charts, this was a steal. The difference between pick 30 and 37 is only 160 points, but Dallas got a pick from Washington that was worth 260 points. Jones left Brackens hanging and jumped at the deal. Washington got Johnson. Brackens lasted until pick 33, when Jacksonville scooped him up. Dallas, still needing an end, rolled the dice on McNeese St. end Kavika Pittman. With the extra third the Cowboys selected Florida St. center Clay Shiver.

The trade down caused an uproar. When he tried to defend the deal, Jones pointed to the value of the third rounder, saying without the trade there was no way Dallas could get a center like Shiver. And center was a need for the '96 Cowboys. Starting center Ray Donnaldson was old, and had suffered a serious ankle dislocation in the '95 Thanksgiving Day game against Kansas City.

The flaw in Jones' thinking is that he put the value of an extra third rounder above the value of his first. What's worse, he put the value of the points he got above the value of Brackens. If you are looking for the signature of Jerry's failed drafts this is it -- he seems to value getting a great deal on "points" more than getting quality athletes.

Points don't play on Sundays and Jones, in his giddiness to squeeze an extra hundred out of his rivals in Washington, failed to recognize the points he had been gifted; Brackens may have been available at pick 30, but his value was in the 12-16 range. The points difference between 16 and 30 is 280, something Jerry didn't take into account.

Jones paid a steep price for his fuzzy math. Brackens was a quality starter right out of the box for Jacksonville. Pittman and Shiver were both busts.

With all of Jones' talk of trading down and getting value in the later rounds, the Brackens' deal keeps flashing through my mind. Dallas scored in its trade down with Buffalo last year, but as long-time fans know, nobody is worse when he is on top than Jerry Jones. Nobody's gambling tendencies are more enabled by one good roll of the dice than our owner's.

Jerry is not alone in the war room anymore. He has Bill Parcells and new personnel man Jeff Ireland to act as buffers. It is my hope for tomorrow that Jerry and Co. do not get so obsessed with recovering a third round pick that they overlook value in the first. The Buffalo trade in effect allowed them to move up from the early third to the late first. Dallas has not "lost" anything. Let's all hope Jerry understands that this time.

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Comments

Yeah, thanks for reminding me about the Brackens mishap. Ever since I hoped that we would get a real GM, but I continue to wish.Jerry is too busy trying to be the noice maker of each draft instead of just getting the best player to help the team.

by Derrick on Apr 22, 2005 1:31 PM CDT reply actions

Bill Parcells knows how to pick players so we need to have faith in him. When he’s gone though we can go back and worry.

by Lou on Apr 22, 2005 1:42 PM CDT reply actions

If the Cowboys stay where they’re at with the 2 picks in the 1st round, they could have the top 2 defensive players in this draft. They may never have this opportunity ever again. So hopefully they don’t try to move down and take a chance of losing the player they want. Remember, defense wins championships!

by Dan on Apr 22, 2005 2:53 PM CDT reply actions

dan,

defense it is! i would say this…

11 johnson, if not there, then spears
20 poole or ware
42 tuck or mathis

by Ryan on Apr 22, 2005 3:29 PM CDT reply actions

Rafael: you highlight a stressful fact for any Cowboy’s fan.

In truth, the same exact thing happened in ‘96 as happended last year. Jerry called the Buffalo deal too good to pass up. He’s right about that. However, its also too good to pass up on the 5th or 10th or so best rated player in the draft when you’re picking at 22nd and its a need position. (I’m not complaining about the results, but let’s separate results from the decision. Sometimes bad decisions lead to good results) At some point, you do have to stop collecting estra picks and select the player you like / you love and didn’t expec to be there for you. Look at our performance in the 5th round and later over the past several drafts. How many deals has Jerry pulled to get us more 6th and 7th round picks by moving us back a few spots? Does that mean that when we’re on the clock on the 6th round there wasn’t ANY ONE single player we had rated highly who slipped to us and whom we can’t pass on?

bottom line, I fear our greed for more picks and our choice to place volume and value ahead of the player.

by Tedia Naidu on Apr 22, 2005 3:36 PM CDT reply actions

Tedia,

I think that if we are sitting on the clock, and 2,3, maybe even more players are there that we like, and they are rated equally, then trading down some isn’t such a bad idea. If we are there at 11 or 20 and we have one player rated far above everyone else, then keep it and make the selection. The biggest difference from now and 1996 is the man calling the shots. …. That’s why last year’s trade made a lot of sense. Maybe your best rated player was there at 22, but was Parcells’? If you ask me Parcells’ saw Jones big games two years ago playing for Notre Dame. Julius kept a way overmatched Irish team in the game against USC, all by his lonesome. A 1st and a 5th to drop 21 spots, and take a chance that “your guy” will still be there is a little risky, but not so risky when “your guy” isn’t being rated that high by other “experts” and other teams. Good risk, and it paid off. In 96 we took a bad calculated risk, as Rafael stated Brackens had fallen already, he was rated high and the odds were he would be gone by the 37th pick.

by Eric on Apr 22, 2005 5:31 PM CDT reply actions

tedia,

i agree with you. you put in a good way.

as much as i want to get another 1st next year, so that we can get a top tier WR for once, i want to get the good players now in this draft, we have to not get too greedy because i know that one of these times its gonna make something bad happen

at least jerry has bill now to help out and bill will help out, i know it. because before he had gailey and campo, they sucked at drafts im sorry but they did. BP is much better.

enough of it, I CANT WAIT FOR TOMORROW!!!! ITS SUCH AN ADRENALINE RUSH…..

i also cant wait for september and our season to the bowl to begin (dont worry im not getting overly confident i just want to be able to have THE MOST SB’s in the nfl. besides, i dont think SF will get one in the near future, so we have the lead way!)

by Ryan on Apr 22, 2005 5:33 PM CDT reply actions

jerry sucks, well not that much… he should quit with the wheeling and dealing and just draft..

and another thing… if i hear anything about how much bill is a genious i’m gonna snap lol.. no not parcells, bellchick… everytime i watch espn.. goto websites… ‘oh bellichick is such a genious… did u here? bellichick is making tom brady play safety… such a genious..’ yeah… for what? putting troy brown as a DB and making Seymour play fullback? c’mon… once either of those guys gets injured playing a position they shouldnt how much of a genious is here after? honestly its like they dont give any credit to any of the players playing on the team… remember when they held the great Colts to 3 points in the playoffs? all i heard was how great his playcalling was… which it is… but at the same time he’s not on the field makin plays..

yea sorry i went into my spat… go cowboys!! lol…

signed,
the boobity

by boobity barns on Apr 22, 2005 6:03 PM CDT reply actions

I have total confidence that Jerry will make me say what the crap are they doing since I’ve said that every year, even when he got Roy. I thought they had let him slide as well. I hope Bill sends Jerry out forPizza around 2:00 Sat. then we may get the players we need to start winning. Go Cowboys!

by Corey on Apr 22, 2005 7:15 PM CDT reply actions

Good points all around. And sure, I want to agree with Eric. If there’s one key player on our board and he’s there for us, Jerry will do the right thing. And we’d be lucky to slip a few picks if we’re equally happy with 3-4 players at #11 and someone is offering #14 or 15 to us. But as Corey wrote — every freakin’ year I have to buy a new TV because I’ve thrown a brick at the Commish as he announces yet another surprise trade by the wheeling and dealing Cowboys.

By the way, are others rooting for the redskins and 49ers and eagles to screw up? I hate it when I like their moves. I do hope the 9ers take the Cal guy (I’m a Stanford grad) so I can hate them even more and laugh at them for picking the cheaper guy. And besides, Rodgers is going to suck (I hope — unless we draft him #11 — then I’ll be his biggest fan). If the Redskins are after Campbell, I’d like nothing more than to see him dissappear one pick ahead of their 2nd 1st rounder.

by Tedia Naidu on Apr 22, 2005 7:38 PM CDT reply actions

Not sure if this is what you’re suggesting in the article but what would be intriguing would be to take the points for each spot in a draft and match them up to the players you have slotted on your board. That shows the value of that spot for a given player that would factor in to a deal

For example, if Brackens was the 12th rated player on the board then you assign him points that the 12th spot has you must get that value in trade or else you pass. Unlikely to be the case that year. My guess is you’d have to adjust the points because there are drop offs in talent so you’d have to account for that in your point system.

by Don S. on Apr 22, 2005 8:27 PM CDT reply actions

Don S.,

Nice points about the value of your own board. On the flip side, I think part of the draft that people never seem to understand enough is where other teams value your targeted players. Parcells and Dallas probably targeted Jones with their own pick at 53, and Shawn Andrews in the 1st round. Dallas was sitting and waiting at 21 for Andrews to fall to them. Philly had a hunch Dallas had Andrews high on their board and pulled the trigger to leap frog Dallas. Once Andrews was off the board, plan B went into effect. The Cowboys assured themselves of “their guy” by aquiring the 43rd selection, not going to sit and wait again. Parcells and Jones also landed a huge deal with Buffalo, so plan B was almost just as good as the original plan, but if Dallas had to select from 21 now, with Andrews gone, the options were minimal. Just look at the players taken at or after the 21st selection last year. I’d say 6 made impacts with their teams, the biggest by none other than Julius Jones.

by Eric on Apr 22, 2005 9:49 PM CDT reply actions

A 3rd round pick would be good to have in this draft because of the depth but i would prefer an extra 2nd. I think there will be more value in the 2nd round than any other.

by LaMonte on Apr 22, 2005 9:52 PM CDT reply actions