Cowboys - Lions Preview

by Rafael Vela on Nov 19, 2005 11:10 AM CST in Dallas Cowboys Games

The Cowboys will try to build on the momentum of their unlikely comeback win against the Eagles when they face Detroit this Sunday. The Lions will also be working on a winning streak, having beaten the Cardinals convincingly at home.

When the Lions Have the Ball

Did the light finally go on for Joey Harrington last week? The young quarterback had his best game of the year, riddling the Cardinals for three touchdowns in an impressive 29-21 win. Or was the game just a will-o-the-wisp, courtesy of the weak Arizona secondary? Most evidence suggests that it was an aberration. Consider Harrington's last six starts:

Arizona, 29-21 win, 102.3 QB rating

Minnesota, 27-14 loss, 63.1 QB rating

Carolina, 21-20 loss, 67.7 QB rating

Baltimore, 35-17 win, 34.1 QB rating

Tampa Bay, 17-13 loss, 69.5 rating

Chicago, 38-6 loss, 36.4 QB rating

That's an unimpressive 2-4 win-loss record, with a 62.2 average rating. The Cardinals game was the only one in which Harrington topped the 70.0 mark, better known around here as the Quincy Carter line. His worst performance came in Detroit's biggest win this year, a thrashing of the Ravens.

Harrington is not the only sub-par member of the Lions' offense. Second year RB Kevin Jones, for all his talent, has a meager 3.2 yards-per-carry average, suggesting that the Lions' line is struggling even more the Dallas'.

The Cowboys were outmuscled last week by an Eagles' offense that cannot run the ball effectively. Dallas played most of the game rushing four and playing in zones, trying to contain the Eagles' passing game. Their passivity was induced by Donovan McNabb's running ability; the Cowboys rarely blitzed, as the wounded McNabb still has above average rushing skills.

There will be no such concern with Harrington. He has a reputation for being one of the most skittish QBs in the game. In addition, his accuracy has always been questionable. Expect Dallas to crowd the line and pressure Harrington early, mid-game and late. If CB Anthony Henry is back from his groin injury the Cowboys will likely blitz more than they have all year. And that will make Roy Williams a happy man. He was unleashed in the Arizona game and rattled Cards' QB Josh McCown. McCown is a big tough guy, however, and he stood in and took the abuse, hurling a long TD pass in the process. Harrington is not the gunslinger McCown is. If Williams and his friends can hit him early, he could make like Santa and hand the secondary some early Christmas gifts.

Harrington has not been helped by his coaches' play calling. When he was at San Francisco, Steve Mariucci outlined his philosophy as a merger of the West Coast offense's passing game with an offset-I formation power running attack, with lots of screens mixed in. (In fact, this reads a lot like the offense Dallas is running right now.) Mariucci had some of the best running attacks in the NFL his first years with the 49ers, when Garrison Hearst was his back. Mariucci has Kevin Jones in his backfield now, but his play calling of late shows a definite case of Andy Reid disease. Mariucci has been quick to give up on the run if it does not succeed out of the box. The first two to three series of the game will be key for the Cowboys; if they can keep Jones from breaking any long runs and gaining a rhythm, they can spook Mariucci into going heavy towards the pass.

When Harrington does throw, he will have WR Roy Williams as his best weapon. Williams has been injured some, but has big play ability. He has been erratic, however, piling up impressive stats one game and looking pedestrian the next. This probably has more to do with Harrington and the 0-line's suspect play than it does with his game.

When Dallas has the Ball

The Cowboys had a horrible time trying to run last week against and inspired Philadelphia front that stacked eight and nine men at the line regularly. The Cowboys might have more trouble getting untracked this week, at least if they try to hammer inside. The heart of the Lions good young defense is its massive tackles Shaun Rogers and Dan Wilkinson. A disappointment at all his previous stops, the Big Daddy Wilkinson has found a niche at the noseguard in Detroits over and undershifting 4-3. He will give C Al Johnson a handful. Do not be surprised if bigger C Andre Gurode gets some rotations against the Big Daddy. Wilkinson's nose play allows the 345 lb. Rogers single blocking. It will be fun to watch Rogers go head on against the Cowboys guards, especially LG Larry Allen.

I think Dallas will attack Detroit the same way it did Arizona. The Cardinals stacked their line, hoping to slow the Cowboys inside running game and Dallas outflanked them, with tosses, sweeps and quick screens to the running backs. Julius Jones is listed as the starter this week and that makes sense, as Dallas will need more speed to probe the flanks of Detroits' line. The Cowboys will have size matchups on the edges; Lions ends Cory Reddins and James Hall are both bulked up rush ends in college. Redding, for example is listed at 290, but he played at 265 while at Texas. Even in his puffed up state he gives up 40 lbs. to LT Torrin Tucker. Hall gives up 55 to RT Rob Petitti.

The Lions could try to blitz Drew Bledsoe, but their secondary lacks the size and depth of Philadelphia's. Lions' corners Dre Bly and Antonio Bryant are 5'9" and 5'10" respectively and stays away from extensive press coverage. Look for Keyshawn Johnson to get a lot of work on crossing routes, where he can use his size to box out his smallish opponents.

Also look for Jason Witten to get back into the mix. His play has been erratic, part because he blocks more to protect OTs Tucker and Petitti. But he has also been slowed by consistent double teams. He should have more space to run this week, he will finally play a team that uses a lot of zone coverage.

The Cowboys will also have to consider some changes in the way they use Terry Glenn. The Lions corners are small, but they are also fast. They tend to play softer coverage to prevent the long ball. Glenn has become a bellwehter for the Cowboys offense. When he gets off to quick starts, the offense does too. When he disappears for two and a half to three quarters, so do the Cowboys' points. I look for Sean Payton to use Glenn on more timing routes, the skinny posts, quick hithes, flanker screens and deep ins that can beat loose coverage.

Prediction: There have been speculation in the threads that this represents a trap game, with the Broncos lurking next Thursday. I'm not convinced. For starters, the Cowboys have no business being complacent. They were outplayed for much of the Eagles game and their coach will certainly let them know it. Second, they have only strung two subpar games together once this year, when they played the Giants and the Seahawks. Both of those teams had something to do with Dallas' performaces.

I think the Cowboys will play better Sunday. They've been a good home team, going 3-1 in Texas Stadium. The Lions, on the other hand, have been a poor road team, posting a 1-3 record. Detroit's lone road win was a 13-10 squeaker against Cleveland. What's more, Detroit has not fared well against good teams. The Lions four wins have come over Green Bay, Baltimore, Arizona and Cleveland. The Packers, Ravens and Cardinals are all 2-7. The Browns are 3-6. Steve Mariucci's guys are 0-4 against teams with winning records.

I think they're just a few hours from 0-5. The Lions defense is good and could give the Cowboys offense some trouble. But if they don't hold Dallas under 14 points they won't be able to win the game, as the Lions rank 26th in scoring. We're likely to be reminded tomorrow that the Cardinals can make any team look good.

Dallas 27, Detroit 14

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Comments

Add to the Lions defensive woes – both CB Dre’ Bly and LB Earl Holmes are out for this Sunday’s game.

by Raul on Nov 19, 2005 2:44 PM CST reply actions

This is like the Cardinals game-for this team to set a tone and believe in themselves as contenders, they need to dominate! A win by less than 10 pts. will be disappointing, esp. with one of the best teams coming in a few days. So when I get out of church and flick that radio on to hear the scores, I want to hear 28-7 or something! Also, that would provide a chance to rest some people for Thursday in the 4th………..

by larry on Nov 19, 2005 4:12 PM CST reply actions

Raf said:

..And that will make Roy Williams a happy man. He was unleashed in the Arizona game and rattled CardsÃ¢â‚¬â"¢ QB Josh McCown.

BUt when he was laying back he did manage to pick six in Philly! If mariucci is going to abandon the run, why not pick the QB?

And won’t Hall’s speed give Pettitti fits?

by AlanTdot on Nov 19, 2005 4:31 PM CST reply actions

Cundiff is Back!!!

I hope he is healthy. Do we keep Suisham for the PR?

by AlanTdot on Nov 19, 2005 4:34 PM CST reply actions

Rafael:
“LionsÃ¢â‚¬â"¢ corners Dre Bly and Antonio Bryant are 5Ã¢â‚¬Â²9Ã¢â‚¬Â³ and 5Ã¢â‚¬Â²10Ã¢â‚¬Â³ respectively”

Good analysis, but Dre Bly has been listed as ‘out’ with his wrist injury, and you may have meant to type Andre Goodman, instead of Antonio Bryant.
Lions starting corners should be Goodman and R.W. McQuarters, with Stanley Wilson as the nickel corner.
Billy Cundiff should help on kickoffs to limit Drummond’s returns.
This is a trap game, but Cowboys will win.

by Lee on Nov 19, 2005 4:41 PM CST reply actions

NFL.com has a story saying Dallas will be the most likely, and really the only team likely to pick up TO, your thoughts?

by Mike on Nov 19, 2005 4:47 PM CST reply actions

After that pathetic performance by the Cowboys Monday night,where the O-line and D-lines were dominated, there’s no way this is a trap game. The cowboys would be better served to run some toss sweeps outside as running inside with Rogers and wilkerson manning the middle will be hard sledding.If we are going to have any success in the final seven games and/if we get to the playoffs, we’ve got to get the running game going.
I think a heavy run oriented game plan this week by the cowboys,

Dallas 27 Detroit 16

by Derrick on Nov 19, 2005 4:57 PM CST reply actions

T.O will not be released this year,he might have his suspension reduced a game, but he will be deactivated for the rest of the year and their’s not one thing the union or his loud mouth agent can do about it. LOOKS GOOD ON HIM. I dont want him anywhere near this team.

by Derrick on Nov 19, 2005 5:01 PM CST reply actions

For all of y’all that doubt the incredible insight and intuition you’ll find on this blog that no mediot ever even mentioned the possibility of Cundiff coming back…yet.

A few weeks back, during the game blog after Seattle, when everyone was deservedly dogging Cortez, I told you guys I had a secret.

Cundiff is back. Right on schedule.

I’m not bragging as much as pointing out how incredible this blog is to really find some great analysis and comment by a lot of very loyal fans.

Once again, Rafael, great analysis on the game. As most are pointing out, the OL is now our main concern about this team’s ability to take it to the next level.

This game SHOULD be a warm up. A scrimmage to tune up and test. Dallas is clearly the better team. But it’s time for them to kick it up a notch.

The Defense should really dominate this game. I don’t care how potentially good their three receivers are, as long as Harrington is throwing the ball, they don’t stand a chance. I too expect to see a very aggressive game. If we’re gonna get beat, it’ll be swinging. Just too much of a talent deficit.

The leviathans at tackle (Rogers & Big Daddy) will be a good test for Allen, Al and Rivera. But the matchup at the ends should be OK. The ability of Tucker and Pettiti to handle their guys one-on-one will determine how “open” this offense can be. Expect to see some three WR sets and fewer max protection schemes. If the youngins can handle their own, we’ll see the best performance since Philly I.

by Fighter15 on Nov 19, 2005 5:56 PM CST reply actions

Dallas 27 Lions 3

by Lou on Nov 19, 2005 7:23 PM CST reply actions

Dallas 27 Detroit 10

by Len on Nov 19, 2005 8:00 PM CST reply actions

fighter15,
If anybody thought Billy Cundiff wouldn’t be signed back would have to be blind, it was mentioned earlier in the season by all the mediots that their was no doubt that Cundiff would be signed back to the team, after all cortez was horrible, suisham was a rookie with no leg for kickoff duty, no way bill was going down the stretch and/if in the playoffs with a rookie as a kicker. So I think it was a given.You know the old saying, you dont know what you got till its gone, or grass isn’t alway greener on the other side.If cundiff wasn’t injured during the last weekend of preseason, he would of been our kicker to start the season.

by Derrick on Nov 19, 2005 8:17 PM CST reply actions

There were 6 weeks where Cundiff could have signed for another team. That’s 6 paychecks.

Now, he started working out in earnest in late Sept, and may not have been ready, but you got to think he would have been courted by someone. I mean, 3-4 weeks, even at the vet min is some cha-ching.

Methinks Jerry worked a deal. Maybe future promises.

by Fighter15 on Nov 19, 2005 8:45 PM CST reply actions

F-15:

The O line is only one worry. The strongside linebacker may turn out to be a bigger one. Fujita/Burnett/Caver are going to have to step it up a huge notch over what they did in the last game, not to get past Detroit, but to get the team where the rest of them deserve to be in the end, given what we have seen thus far.

by cowboy bert on Nov 19, 2005 8:55 PM CST reply actions

AARGH! My DirectTV receiver just went out today! They will send me one in 2-5 business days. I informed the lady that that doesn’t help me for tomorrow’s game. No body around me pays any attention to the NFL. Its college football only way out here so no Sunday Tickets! Guys…where can I at least hear the game on the net? Help.

by Michael on Nov 19, 2005 9:01 PM CST reply actions

Cowboy Bert,

Good point on the SOLB. Fujita had a LONG night in Philly this past Monday.

On a related note, my lead pipe cinch for the Cowboys #1 pick next April (I’m not entirely joking) SOLB Bobby Carpenter of Ohio St., broke his ankle on the first play from scrimmage today against Michigan.

Hmmmm. Maybe he’s now a second round option…..

Okay, okay, back to the season at hand.

by Rafael Vela on Nov 19, 2005 9:07 PM CST reply actions

Rafael:

I’m sorry for Carpenter, but that sounds good to me. Maybe a dynamic FS or some O line help near (or at!)the end of round 1?

I’m still not too sure what the Cowboys have as backups at guard or tackle—Peterman and Noll don’t play, and the tackles were just signed after Flozell went down. These guys may turn out OK by next year, with some additional coaching, or may all be washouts. Who knows?

The centers are substandard, but first round is usually early for center. Of course, it is also usually early for safety and guard, but there you have it.

But, first things first. Focus on Detroit, and end all suspense by the middle of the 3rd, then get ready for Denver.

by cowboy bert on Nov 19, 2005 9:28 PM CST reply actions

Do not look past Detroit, Boys. This could be the kind of game that inspired the “Any Given Sunday” quote.

by Maurice on Nov 19, 2005 10:16 PM CST reply actions

Here’s something to think about tomorrow. In 2001, when the boys were picking Quincy, Shaun Rogers was still sitting there. And when they picked Tony Dixon in the second round also, he was still there. I remember screaming at the tv about both of the picks, and I was right. Hopefully this year’s crop will make me forget about that big miss.

by BlueCheese on Nov 19, 2005 11:06 PM CST reply actions

Let’s all create good vibes that the game with the birds was a BIG wake up call for the ‘Boys. They got soundly beat and but by the grace of luck & circumstance, they came away with a 1-point win. ’Boys, don’t eat the “cheese”!!!

Has anyone heard or read anything about the intensity in the practices this week? My guess would be that BP got on their cases pretty well. At least, he did more than play with their psyche a bit.

by Digger O'Dell on Nov 19, 2005 11:08 PM CST reply actions

had Cundiff been our kicker all year do you realize we might well be 8-1…….and the talk of Seattle and Carolina would diminish.

Well I never thought I would be glad to have a K back……..always thought those guys were just walk on FAs that we could always find…..but after the Jose hangover it is a big relief to have Billy back! I don’t care that Billy the Kid can’t kick from 50 he was money from 45 in and that is really all you need in a kicker!

Allright boys lets put this one away early and let JJ,MB, TT and Polite rack up 20 carries each in a lopsided game that lets Ware, Spears, Ellis and Glover get some rest in the 2nd Half for TDay!

by Jon on Nov 19, 2005 11:14 PM CST reply actions

“Do not look past Detroit, Boys. This could be the kind of game that inspired the Ã¢â‚¬Å"Any Given SundayÃ¢â‚¬Â quote.”

I agree completely.

by Lee on Nov 19, 2005 11:38 PM CST reply actions

Rafael:

Detroit does has a Bryant at CB, he’s Fernando Bryant, but he’s on IR.

Also 2 starters and a regular in the LB’s corps are injured, one (Earl Holmes, MLB) is Doubtful, another (Boss Bailey, WLB)is Questionable and the regular (Teddy Lehman, SLB) is already out, leaving Detroit with just one starter (James Davis, which I hadn’t heard from) and Wali Rayner and Donte Curry. Oh, and things couldn’t go any wronger for Detroit, by friday Terrence Holt, the starter at FS came down with a back injury and is Questionable.

So, as an engineer and a good mathematician that leaves Detroit with 3 average LB’s, one safety and almost no depth…. JuiceJ must be licking his chops….

by Chandus on Nov 20, 2005 1:09 AM CST reply actions

I definitely agree that Harrington’s performance last week was a flash in the pan and not a sign of things to come from him. We gotta get to him early and often.

Although I know it’d make for a nonspectacular game, I’d really like to see the Boys run-run-run until they get it right.

Poke

by Poke on Nov 20, 2005 1:14 AM CST reply actions

Oh and I am defintiely glad we wont be needing to hold our breath on twenty yard FGs for the remainder of the season.

Poke

by Poke on Nov 20, 2005 1:40 AM CST reply actions

Digger,

Good point. The stories last week all said the team was sloppy and unfocused during some of their practices. Played that way too, no? Yeah, I wonder too how they worked the last few days.

by Rafael Vela on Nov 20, 2005 1:56 AM CST reply actions

Fighter15,
You hit the nail on the head. Cundiff could have signed with someone else, but I bet Jerry made a deal with him not to.

Against the Lions, we’ll pick on their depleted secondary with lots of throws to Witten and Keyshawn, then knock ’em out with bombs to Price and Glenn. Price will add to the 58 yarder he had against Philly. Really nice to see him catch a long one!

JJ will have a huge game, and we’ll win handily, 28-13, maybe more.

by onepaniolo on Nov 20, 2005 2:10 AM CST reply actions

This thing with billy cundiff returning is big to me. I now feel relief that i won’t be praying for a come back or hoping we could hold on for the last minute. we should have a good day wit detroit but we got to see if billy is back to play.

by dml that cowboy on Nov 20, 2005 3:35 AM CST reply actions

I truly believe that we’ll be OK on the OL with one, maybe two new additions.

OL usually take 2-3 years to blossom. Peterman is only in his second year, and how the heck is he going to crack the lineup with Allen and Rivera in front of him. Our centers are very good, not subpar. Al Johnson is in his second year and is doing very well. Gurode’s a good backup.

As far as the tackles…OK, we need some help. But Tucker & Pettiti are doing OK. Let’s see how they progress, but there should be a conserted effort next offseason to add a stud or two. My guess is 3 draft picks and the premier FA, although we DO have Flozell coming back.

by Fighter15 on Nov 20, 2005 7:07 AM CST reply actions

As far as OLB, I’m a Fujita/Burnett fan. I think they will both make significant improvement over the next few weeks.

Burnett was hurt the first half of the season (and on a side note, why the heck didn’t we hear that before) with knee and groin injuries. He says he’s healthy now, and given Fujita’s struggles last week, look for Burnett to get some serious looks.

Given these two, why would we want another rookie? I like our LBs. Don’t see a need to waste another pick, unless it’s a sure-fire stud. Been awhile since one’s come out.

by Fighter15 on Nov 20, 2005 7:11 AM CST reply actions

Well, I’m just walking out the door to head to irving. I hope to bring better luck than I did against the skins. Go Cowboys!

by j on Nov 20, 2005 7:58 AM CST reply actions

EricR,

I must first apologize for the extreme lateness of this post. However, I was without any computer access since last Monday morning.

You were right. I was wrong. Even though Julius Jones was healthy enough to play, Bill Parcells awarded Marion Barber the start.

Good call.

Although neither one distinguished himself, overall, on at least one outstanding blitz pickup, Barber demonstrated why Parcells had placed his trust in the rookie.

by Mr. Bill on Nov 20, 2005 8:37 AM CST reply actions

He also made a critical mistake that nearly cost the game.

The reason he started is because he’s healthier. Jones will take a more prominent role once he gets closer to 100%. I look for it to start today.

by Fighter15 on Nov 20, 2005 9:25 AM CST reply actions

All aboard!!!! The philly bandwagon has just pulled up and I’m getting on. I will be hoping for a Philly win over the Giants today, should I make some room for you guys, this week only though. What’s their starving chant,
E-A-G-L-E-S———————eagles!!!!

by Derrick on Nov 20, 2005 10:15 AM CST reply actions

Derrick,
Make room for me! I hate both teams, but I want NY to lose more!I’ll root for the Beagles today.

by onepaniolo on Nov 20, 2005 10:43 AM CST reply actions

dont worry about a trap game, Parcells has been hanging mousetraps all over the locker rooms and practice facility, he wont let that happen, neither will Bledsoe, we know we have to win this one, especially with the Giants playing a even weaker philly team today…
d-a-l-l-a-s——DALLAS!!!!

by nflcowboys on Nov 20, 2005 11:36 AM CST reply actions