Cowboys - Giants Preview, Round Two

by Rafael Vela on Dec 2, 2005 1:32 PM CST in Dallas Cowboys Games

The inside track to the NFC East title is on the line when the Cowboys travel to New Jersey to take on the Giants. A Cowboys win would give them a sweep over New York, giving the Cowboys all tiebreaker advantages.

When the Giants Have the Ball

The Cowboys are the only team to hold the powerful Giants offense to under 20 points this year. That came in week six, when Dallas earned a 16-13 overtime win. The extent to which the defense controlled New York is not clear in the score. Eli Manning and friends gained only 270 total yards. 173 of them came in the last ten minutes of regulation, when the Giants attempted to erase a 13-6 Dallas lead.

Dallas approached that game, and will certainly approach this game, with four objectives. First, keep Tiki Barber from establishing the run. Barber has been the best running back in the NFC not named Shaun Alexander this year. He's limited the fumbles that have troubled him in year's past and is still the pass catching threat he has always been.

This year, he's playing behind an improved offensive line that New York's front office has signed to long term deals, ensuring continuity, something very few salary-cap-era offensive lines enjoy. Barber's game has two glaring tendencies. He's a much more effective runner on the perimter, where he can use his speed. He also gains most of his yards running left, behind LT Luke Pettitgout and LG David Deihl. Barber had success running left in October, right at Cowboys' ROLB Demarcus Ware. Ware has been better against the run of late, but Dallas will have to guard against runs right, where Scott Fujita and Kevin Burnett have struggled.

The second objective is limited Giants featured wideout Plaxico Burress. Dallas matched up RCB Anthony Henry on Burress and Henry won decisively, holding the receiver to just 55 yards on five receptions. Henry conceded hooks, and shallow crosses, but prevented Burress from getting behind him.

Henry is questionable because of a strained groin that has sidelined him for the past month. Third CB Aaron Glenn will start again if Henry cannot play. Glenn had a solid game against Denver's Rod Smith last week and should be ready if Burress tests him. However, he is giving up eight inches to the 6'5" Burress, who will use his size to play post-up basketball. Burress might frustrate the Cowboys with third down conversions, but this is not the type of play that can beat you all by itself. So long as Glenn does not concede deep passes, or miss tackles on slants, turning seven yard gains into 20 yarders, he and the defense should be okay.

Where Henry will be missed is on running plays. He is powerful in run support and backed up Ware in the first match, limiting Barber's outside runs to Ware's side. Glenn is a gritty player, but he carries less weight and therefore is less willing to throw his body at oncoming runners. This could give the Giants a small edge they lacked the first time.

The third key is keeping TE Jeremy Shockey under wraps. He ignites the Giants' offensive engine. Terence Newman smothered him the first three quarters in Texas Stadium and New York's offense went nowhere. When Mike Zimmer began playing standard zones after getting a lead, Shockey ripped through linebacker coverage and amassed 101 of his 129 receiving yards. I expect that Shockey will get more attention from Newman again this week, in the hopes of preventing a fast start, by both Shockey and the Giants.

Pressuring Eli Manning is the fourth objective. The Dallas line won the matchup the last time, sacking Manning four times and forcing two turnovers. Pressure came from all angles; Ware had a vital sack in the fourth when the Giants were in the Dallas red zone. LaRoi Glover had another key first half sack that pushed the Giants out of field goal range.

The line woke up last week after a sleepy extended bye. The pass rush missing against Philadelphia and Detroit wore down the Broncos line. Rookie Chris Canty led the charge. He'll probably get a lot of playing time at right end, next to Ware. The two can play games with Pettitgout and Deihl, who are much better run blockers and pass protectors. Pettitgout had an embarrassing number of false starts last week against Seattle. The crowd noise will be on his side this week, but a strong early push could give him the jumps yet again.

When Dallas Has the Ball

Keep the ball. That's the lesson of game one, where Sean Payton tried to pass the Cowboys to an early lead, as he did against the Eagles the week before. His plans were undone by three turnovers in game's first 20 minutes. The Giants secondary has been beaten up all year and Dallas found some mismatches. The biggest was Keyshawn Johnson against CB Curtis Deloatch. Johnson had 8 catches for 120 yards. Dallas threw a lot of deep in and skinny posts to Johnson, as the New York safeties were playing deep to help against Terry Glenn. Deloach is still having trouble with big receives; Seattle's Joe Jurevicius caught 8 for 137 yards against him and his mates last week. Look for Keyshawn to gain be the centerpiece of the passing attack.

Glenn did not have a breakout day against the Giants, but they gave him constant attention. He was still able to get deep a couple of times but was underthrown by Drew Bledsoe, once for an interception when Glenn had his man clearly beaten. Glenn will draw rookie Corey Webster much of the time. Dallas won't wait very long to test him.

One area where the Giants are vastly improved is run defense. They held Dallas to a 2.4 yard per attempt average last time. Last week, Shaun Alexander averaged a so-so 3.5 yards a carry. The key for both Dallas and Seattle wins was to keep pounding at New York's front. Alexander got 31 carries. Dallas, despite its poor running, had 38 runs. It's not pretty, but it's highly effective; Dallas was able to keep the ball for over 40 minutes in the early win. Expect more of the same. The best way to keep Eli Manning and friends off the scoreboard is to keep them off the field. Dallas has struggled throughout 2005 to put up big rushing numbers, but that won't dissuade them from running Sunday. Look for Marion Barber and Julius Jones to get a lot of ugly runs.

The tale of the game will be told on the line of scrimmage, where Dallas has two key matchups it must either win or draw if it wants to win. The more obvious has RT Rob Petitti facing New York LE Michael Strahan. Petitti received TE and RB help on almost every play of the first half last time. Dallas tried letting Petitti go one-on-one a few times, but sacks by Strahan pushed them back to a more conservative approach. Petitti will again get a lot of help.

The more open duel will feature LT TorrinTucker against N.Y. RE Osi Umenyiora. Umenyiora had a breakout game in October against Flozell Adams, though it seems clear from the tape that Adams probably injured his knee in the first quarter and played on it until he was forced from the game in the third quarter. Tucker had to leave the bench cold and had a shaky start but finished the game respectably. He has slowly gained in confidence and is getting a lot less chip help since the bye. If Tucker can hold his own, Dallas will be able to field more three WR sets and attack the soft Giants secondary. If he loses out to Umenyioua, I have a hard time seeing how Dallas can get to the 20 point mark.

Prediction:

This one is hard to call. You've go the Giants 3rd-ranked scoring offense against the Cowboys' 4th ranked scoring defense. On the other side of the ball, you have the Giants 12th ranked scoring defense against Dallas' 13th ranked scoring offense. The matchups on both sides of the ball look fairly even. Each team has a weakness on offense the defense can exploit. Conversely, each team has a weakness on defense the offense will attack.

There are no invincible factors. The Giants looked unbeatable at home, then lost an ugly game to the Vikings at the Meadowlands. They are 4-3 the last seven weeks, including the Dallas loss. The Cowboys are 4-2 in that span, with three point losses to Denver and Seattle haunting them.

It's hard to know where to turn. This game is a rematch, which I rate above all other factors. Rematches after close first games tend not to be close. One team takes advantage of its second chance to show it is better. I see the winner taking this by seven to ten points. But which winner? The Dallas defense wore down the Denver offense before giving up a big play in overtime. The Giants dominated yardage against Seattle, but trailed for much of the game.

This game would be much easier to call if Anthony Henry was available, but he's not. A secondary of Newman, Glenn and Jacques Reeves handled Denver, however, so I can see them again keeping Dallas in the game, if not dominating.

The key, yet again, comes down to the offense. Dallas, quietly, has managed over 20 points per game the last month. They're not pretty, but they've been consistent in their inconsistency this year. Dallas has responded every time it has lost a close, painful game, which shows me mental toughness. I see them responding again.

Dallas 21, New York 14

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Comments

Why is Henry not back yet?? This is killing me. Wasn’t this supposed to be a two-week injury, tops? It’s starting to sound like he shares a groin with Fred Taylor.

by Tim on Dec 2, 2005 2:20 PM CST reply actions

He re injured it in practice before denver. That was dumb- should have been kept out and allowed to heal longer. We needed him more now then then.

by Burmafrd on Dec 2, 2005 2:31 PM CST reply actions

Nice work Raf,

I say cowboys 30-20 going away.

by AlanTdot on Dec 2, 2005 2:39 PM CST reply actions

I would rather they lined up Newman on Plax. He scares me more than Shockey.

V. interested to see how much blitzing Zimmer orders. Rattling Eli early is key, he will throw a lot of picks when he’s out of sync.

by Rob in NYC on Dec 2, 2005 2:44 PM CST reply actions

i honestly dont see the giants beating the cowboys. unless of course bledsoe makes some bad mistakes and or gets sacked more than 3 times. the cowboys have dominated every game they have played except for the raider game, maybe not convincingly on every game but they have dominated every game with the exception of last minute mistakes. if the last minute mistakes are corrected the boys can beat anyone in the nfc.

by golden on Dec 2, 2005 3:26 PM CST reply actions

Rob,

I don’t know how much blitzing he will need. If the front four plays the way they did against Denver, four men may do the job. Ware, Glover and Ellis had strong games first time around against the Giants. Canty is on fire right now. I’d get him on the field as soon as possible.

by Rafael Vela on Dec 2, 2005 3:48 PM CST reply actions

Don’t discount the extra days Dallas has (since Thanksgiving), that could offset the homefield.

It will be likely be decided by a turnover. Whoever will be patient in a close low scoring game will win as that more patient QB will not force it into coverage and the more patient RB will not get stood up going extra and get stripped.

by rha on Dec 2, 2005 4:38 PM CST reply actions

If I’m not mistaken the Cowoboys are 8-7 in the last 15 years the week after the thanksgiving day game.
On a side note, the Giants will be wearing their RED jerseys Sunday, so the Cowboys will be wearing their white jerseys, so if you’re superstitious, then Advantage dallas.
I’m still sticking with my previous thread pick,but I’m hoping I’m wrong
Giants 20 Cowboys 17

by Derrick on Dec 2, 2005 5:38 PM CST reply actions

I Think Dallas will come out fired up, and ready to play….They will open up the Offence more this game, much like they did the first Philly game, and try to prove that thire the team to beat in the NFC East……Dallas 31 N.Y 10

by NW on Dec 2, 2005 6:02 PM CST reply actions

Raf, Board,

If TNew covered shockey last game for 3 quarters, and Henry covered Plex, then who covered the suddenly resurgent Amani Toomer??? Glenn? Davis?

Does that mean that Reeves will cover him on Sunday?

What defense were they playing then? 3/4/1/3??

by AlanTdot on Dec 2, 2005 6:04 PM CST reply actions

I hope the Cowboys dont come out flat. They should be fired up, just about everyone is picking the Giants in this game. Hopefully our RB and OL can have a good start.

by Lou on Dec 2, 2005 6:31 PM CST reply actions

Oh they will be flat. But the worse thing will be if they fly down and score on the first series. They usually lose after that, and I’ve been watching them for a long time.

by Maurice on Dec 2, 2005 8:33 PM CST reply actions

I am still a STRONG believer in the “forgotten man”, Julius Jones. Could there be a more opportune time or better stage for his first 100 yard game of the season, with a couple of sharp-cutting, break-out runs? I feel it…watch out for Julius this week. The Giants will play Cover 2 and 3 to keep KJ, TG and Crayton from going deep, and Julius will exploit the 7-man front. Mark Mando’s words!

by Mando on Dec 2, 2005 8:57 PM CST reply actions

i think if we come ready for sixty minutes or more of hard playin then we have this. about coverage roy and newman on plex, aaron on amani, and if he plays henry on shocky. then know it seems crazy but i think our d-line can handle eli and tiki with blitzes. if henry does not play then put roy or another cb on shocky.
on offense put crayton in. have johnson stay in the middle or on the outside terry go for short and crayton goes out. terry goes out to. use witten to block right on runs and i think marion will get alot of snaps and jones will run more outside while marion runs inside and near goal. we absolutely need balance and this is our game. o-line needs to keep pressure off drew.

by darronlambert on Dec 2, 2005 10:45 PM CST reply actions

I am tired of hearing ESPN say that the Giants need this game. They are so biased toward east coast teams. First it was Washington. Then Philly. Now the Giants. The only decent analyst on that station is Tom Jackson, and now he thinks the Bears are better than Dallas. What a joke.

The Boys need this game. Their remaining schedule isn’t a cakewalk. Parcells needs JJ to run 30 plus times in order to get 2 or 3 long runs, possibly touchdowns. JJ needs to find his groove, and he aint gonna do it watching Barber from the sideline. I see Keyshawn playing a pivotal role in the game. He needs 8 or 9 catches for 100 plus yards. And Drew can’t get overanxious if he faces a stiff rush. I want to see BP going for it on 4 and 1. He didn’t do it in the Denver game on a key set of downs, and it cost them the game. Run the QB sneak. Drew is a big guy, he can take the punishment. That’s why you have a guy like Larry Allen. Punch it in!

My prediction: Dallas 24 NY 20

by psychocowboysfan on Dec 2, 2005 11:37 PM CST reply actions

If NY plays it tight, by trying to exploit the running game, this could be a close game.

If they try to come out swinging, Cowboys win going away.

By running consistently and using a field position mentality, Coughlin would be playing into Parcells hands. No way BP would “risk” opening up the game as long as it’s basically a stalemate. It’s the Cowboys M.O. all year.

But it’s also the only way to keep one of the most oportunist D’s around from making a big, game changing play.

I know everyone thinks Eli is the next coming of his brother, but he really is not that good. Maybe he will be, but for now, he’s good only when playing inferior competition. Great D’s have shut him down and forced a lot of turnovers.

I think NY, whom no one outside Strahan has played in a big game, gets nervous (aka choke) and impatient. BP won’t blink first and most of you guys will be whining over him being too conservative.

First Qtr – Each team is shut down. NY gets one long drive for a FG and are up 3-0.

Second Qtr – Eli throws a pick while driving deep in Dallas territory that begins the inevitable Dallas turnaround. Cowboys control the rest of the half and take a 17-10 lead into the locker room.

3rd Qtr – is more of the first. NY gets another FG, while Bledsoe has his normal post meal slumber. I mean really, what’s he doin’ during halftime this year? Eating turkey? 17-13 Cowboys

4th Qtr – I have no freakin’ idea. Heads or tails. That’s been the season.

Get the Pepto handy. Weezie…this is the big one! I’m coming to see you!

by Fighter15 on Dec 3, 2005 1:27 AM CST reply actions

Canty, Ware, Ellis, and Glover have been rested enough all season to now expect a little more playing time down the stretch run. They need to put Eli on his back a few times, which they should.

On the other side of the ball, I see Dallas taking advantage of a good but over-agressive young player in Uminera. He is an emerging star, no doubt, but expect some well executed screens to his side on 3rd and mediums. Also expect a trick play to his side of the field. If he looses contain, Dallas could have a big day out there.

by EricR on Dec 3, 2005 5:25 AM CST reply actions

The Henry situation is a big concern, and if I read Parcells moods correctly on the basis of his press conference tone, he’s very worried about this game—not because of the significance in the standings—but because the matchups don’t favor him. Parcells hierarchy of importance is first matchups and then scheme. Without Henry, the matchups are skewed in favor of the Giants.

As Rafael mentioned, Anthony Henry’s contribution comes not only from matching up well on Plaxico Burress (allowing Newman to focus on Shockey, though I do think the pokes will play sides tomorrow and not follow Burress around) but also as a physical run-stopper who gravitates towards the ball. He reminds me of Dat Nguyen. He makes tackles by the bushel. Aarron Glenn doesn’t bring that kind of game, and until Jaques Reeves demonstrates what kind of player he is, I don’t count him as a difference maker. Seems to me that the Cowboys will be forced to keep Roy Williams back with Davis and/or Pile to help on coverage in the deep middle and this will play into Tiki Barber’s hands on play action. I also expect Burress to beat Glenn more than he beat Henry and have more than the five catches he made last time. In the Parcells book, I think, our schemes match up nicely when the Giants have the ball, but tomorrow we lose on matchups and matchups come first.

This imbalance could be negated by stellar play from our front four, but when is that not true? I like those guys and think they have an amazing future, but I donÃ¢â‚¬â"¢t yet count on them to tip the scales in a critical game.

On the other side of the ball, the problem with our tackles against their defensive ends has been beaten to death, but itÃ¢â‚¬â"¢s a worrisome point. When the Cowboys are in max-protect to assist Tucker and Pettiti, there arenÃ¢â‚¬â"¢t many people running routes to catch passes. You only get eleven guys. With only two (or three if weÃ¢â‚¬â"¢re lucky) pass-catchers out there, Bledsoe finds himself in a large, relatively secure pocket with nobody open. He holds the ball, and everybody at home yells at the TV: Ã¢â‚¬Å"THROW IT!!!Ã¢â‚¬Â Throw it to who? Maybe Crayton this week? I hope so.

But if the Cowboys run out four wide receiver sets or empty backfields, Bledsoe will get snapped in two. Parcells will never let that happen. He knows that without Bledsoe, this whole post-season dream is over and fast. The reality is that our offensive line, for all itÃ¢â‚¬â"¢s promise and young athleticism (thinking of Tucker and Pettiti here) is a handicap in tomorrowÃ¢â‚¬â"¢s ballgame. Again, our scheme is solid but these matchups favor the Giants. After eleven hard fought games which landed ten players on Injured Reserve (ten!), thatÃ¢â‚¬â"¢s what happens.

by AmosM on Dec 3, 2005 11:25 AM CST reply actions

Mando I agree JJ will have a big game out there. No better time to break out then now. He will consisntly follow LA and let him and Al Johnson create some holes to the left side.

Henry probably isnt going to play and that hurts alot, but we can manage. Just dont give up the big play, and in the 4th quarter if we’re up and got ball go for the kill, dont let them hang around. I live in Jersey and its cold and we’re expecting up to 3 inches tonight. I hope it doesnt snow, I dont think I would like Bledsoe in the snow.

by Lou on Dec 3, 2005 11:25 AM CST reply actions

Anthony Henry’s absence hurts, but I am more worried about our linebackers at this point. I hope Shanle’s healthy for this game. Not having Dat Nguyen in the Nickel D also hurts, and I fear Shockey torching us.

However, our D is very tough and resilient, and I think our running game will wake up in this game. JJ will finally break 100 yards, and we’ll dominate the time of possession. However, our red zone offense scares me. First and goal, from the 1, you better score! I predict another multi Alka Seltzer game!

Cowboys 17 Giants 14

by onepaniolo on Dec 4, 2005 3:12 AM CST reply actions