Cowboys - Redskins Preview

by Rafael Vela on Dec 16, 2005 3:26 PM CST in Dallas Cowboys Games

The rivalry that is again revs up Sunday when Dallas visits Fed Ex Field to play the Redskins. Playoff slots are on the line as both teams seek to keep pace with a large and compact NFC field.

When the Redksins Have the Ball
They're a tough bunch to figure out. When you scan Washington's results this season, the only consistent factor is their offensive inconsistency. They were shut out in Giants Stadium and held to less than 100 total yards. Yet two games later they put 35 points on the board against a tough Tampa Bay D.

Mostly, they've stuggled of late, topping the 20 point mark only twice in the last six games. Gibbs' game plans are conservative. He likes running Clinton Portis hard at opponents to set up play action passing. Washington has mobile guards in Derrick Dockery and Randy Thomas, so expect them to run sweeps and their famed counter OT at both Cowboys OLBs, especially rookie Demarcus Ware, who appears to be wearing out late in his rookie campaign.

Mike Zimmer had a lot of success blitzing Washington QB Mark Brunell in September, getting him five times. Roy Williams spent most of the day in the Redskins backfield on safety blitzes. Washington had its bye the week following the Cowboys win and spent a lot of time working on protection. Gibbs now gives Brunell much more seven man pockets and on semi rollouts to escape blitz pressure. Brunell is not the mad scrambler of years past, but he still has good speed and can run for first downs if you don't account for him.

I expect Zimmer to be more sparing with his pressure. He won't give it up completely, since the Dallas front four has had some difficulty getting a four man push lately, but I think Zimmer will pick his spots, since I expect Washington to be much better prepared for his blitz packages. One matchup that favors Dallas when it plays 4-2-5 will be rookie DT/DE Chris Canty on LG Dockery. Dockery is Washington's best run blocker but has trouble with skilled inside rushers. Canty has stepped ahead of fellow rookie Ware and Marcus Spears and has taken a lot of reps from Greg Ellis lately.

When Washington passes it has two primary options. The shorter weapon is H-back Chris Cooley, who Gibbs throws to on first down deep outs and on bootlegs. The deeper weapon, as all Cowboys fans know, is Santana Moss. The former Jet has blossomed in Gibbs offense, making his first formal announcement against the Cowboys, catching two long TD passes in the last five minutes of September's game.

Gibbs succeeded in matching Moss against nickel WR Aaron Glenn. Dallas' coverage was stictly by side then, with Glenn on the left, Anthony Henry on the right and Terence Newman in the slot. Gibbs used a three receiver set with slot receivers left and Moss as the flanker right. This put Moss alone against Glenn with Roy Williams over the top. On Sunday, don't be surprised if the Cowboys do a lot more matchup with Newman following Moss everywhere. Newman has been Dallas' most steady corner all year. He's also the fastest and healthiest CB.

When Dallas has the Ball
Will the Cowboys again be aggressive, or won't they be aggressive? I guess that depends on what you mean by aggressive. To some being aggressive means throwing the ball deep down field, to stretch a secondary's coverage. By this definition, Dallas has been aggressive all year. They have not shied away from the deep attempts to Terry Glenn in any game this year.

Another definition refers to the amount of numerical pressure you apply to a defense. In this regard, the Cowboys have been conservative at times and aggressive at others. Last week, when Bill Parcells mentioned he was opening up the defense, he meant the team would call a lot more plays that sent five receivers out on routes. In the weeks since Flozell Adams was lost with a knee injury, the Cowboys had cut back dramatically on four and five receiver plays, keeping a tight end and a back in to help backup Torrin Tucker and rookie RT Rob Petitti.

Parcells may have been playing a cat and mouse game with Redskins DC Gregg Williams when he mentioned the team will back off its pressure. Parcells as snookered in week two by Williams, who spent most of the week talking up his pressure schemes. Parcells and OC Sean Payton expected a lot of blitzing and installed a game plan with lots of max protect schemes and some deeper throws. They were stymied when Washington feigned blitz, stacking the line before the snap, and backed off, clogging the Cowboys passing lanes.

Parcells and Payton will have to guess what type of schemes they will face the second time around. If they assume Williams will back off, we'll see a game plan similar to the Kansas City one, with more first down passes to the tight end and fullback and lots of delayed routes to the tight ends and backs. If Williams goes back to his aggressive tendencies running five man routes is a recipe for a lot of sacks.

Williams has a dilemma of his own. His starting corners and his nickel corner have all missed practice this week rehabbing injuries. Rookie Carlos Rogers has a bicep injury, which should not limit his play. However, CBs Walt Harris and Shawn Springs are nursing leg injuries. What will Williams do to protect them? Will he back off and play softer schemes? It's possible, but it's not his style. Or will he bring even more heat, trying to get to Drew Bledsoe before Bledsoe can pick on his guys?

My guess is that we'll see a bend but don't break scheme between the 20s, with Williams picking his times for heavy blitzing.

Dallas will, of course, continue its quest for a power running attack. The line has run hot and cold, mostly cold, but nonetheless keeps plugging away. Maintaining a heavy ratio of running attempts will be key to giving Bledsoe time.

Prediction:
Get ready for another close one. It's been the Cowboys receipe all year. What's more, it's been Washington's recipe as well. They're flawed, but they're a good team, and they'll keep your hand moving to the Tums dish all afternoon.

I think in the end the game will turn on Dallas' ability to stay close. The Cowboys have had a terrible time closing out games, but so has Washington, especially at home. I predict this their trend to take precedence.

Dallas 21, Washington 20

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Comments

My biggest concern is that Portis and the other Redskins backs have been running well the last few games and the Cowboys have been allowing over 4 yards a carry on the ground this season. I actually hope that BP and Zim play some 4-3 fronts out there on 1st down with Spears, Glover, Ferguson, and Ellis up front. Stopping their running game is the key to victory I think. If we can get them into 2nd/3rd and long situations all day they will be in trouble because their defense is so one dimensional of late.

Conversely, I really hope BP opens up the passing attack with a lot of play action deep passes on first down. I’d love to see another 70-yard flea flicker to TG like in the first meeting. They are going to be blitzing (unless they see that they can eat up Tucker and Pettiti without having to) like crazy because of their corners being injured, so quick outs, slants to Key/Witten, and screens are hopefully in the game plan. I am usually in favor of grinding it out on the ground, but given the injuries to their DB’s and the way Bledsoe played last week, I think passing is the way to go in this game.

by Sterling on Dec 16, 2005 4:23 PM CST reply actions

First time around we max protect with Flo so I see the same thing this time. Washington plays better at home. 17-13 Dallas.

by aw on Dec 16, 2005 4:59 PM CST reply actions

I think we’ll see something in between what we saw against KC and the 1st Redskins game. Some 3 receiver sets with Witten out in the pattern. That’ll give Bledsoe a chance to pick on these beatup corners, while still having the ability to run the ball and protect the QB. Look for a Dallas win 24-14.

by bushpilot on Dec 16, 2005 5:09 PM CST reply actions

Rafael,

Pardon the diatribe, but it’s been a very bad day.

1 – It’s the counter-trey. Believe it comes from the guard position number on the weak side, not the OT’s. Still the preferred trap play in every good running Pro Offense. Denver, Atlanta, etc. It’s also the Genesis of the cut block, cause it’s the only way it succeeds in the NFL.

2 – This game is about stopping the run. Period. We stop the run, our corners can cover anything they got.

3 – OK, You hit the nail on the head about our Offensive dilema. First analysis I’ve seen that correctly pointed out that Parcells was outfoxed by Williams. I think this will be a real boom/bust game. That easily gives us 2 easy and 4 opps from drives.

That leads me to the final point:

- No way…I mean no way should you be giving the Injuns that much credit. They’re barely a .500 team. They don’t even deserve that. Only way they’re in the game, is if the Cowboys fail to execute.

Cowboys – A lot, Redskins – A (very) little

by Fighter15 on Dec 16, 2005 5:48 PM CST reply actions

Fighter15,

1. The counter OT has the backside guard AND tackle pulling. It goes by several names, counter-trey, counter OT and counter gap. Take your pick.

by Rafael Vela on Dec 16, 2005 5:56 PM CST reply actions

I stand corrected. You’re right, it’s both guard and tackle.

Still, the Center and strong guard have to clip (i.e., cut block) to make the play work. I am a serious opponent of the rule.

Greco-Roman for me.

by Fighter15 on Dec 16, 2005 6:00 PM CST reply actions

Actually this is one of the cleaner plays around. The false step the runner takes gives the blockers and angle so nobody has to cut an opponent, unless they are dirty bastards.

You might be thinking about Denvers stretch plays, where the offside guys are allowed to hit the linemen on the backs of the legs.

by Rafael Vela on Dec 16, 2005 6:04 PM CST reply actions

Raf, just wanted you to know that this is a great site for Cowboy fans, I’m glad I found it. Keep up the good work and analysis of the games, I enjoy reading them.

by bushpilot on Dec 16, 2005 7:49 PM CST reply actions

Rafael,

I think Ware has struggled all year against the run. And not having Henry around at 100% has hurt him even more, because Henry plays run support very well. BUT, he looked amped up last week late in the game. Despite constant double teams in pass rushing situations, he forced Trent Green to step up in the pocket frequently. Unfortunately no one was there colapsing the pocket. I think that will change this week. Remember Marshall and Taylor worked hand in hand in that mid-80s Giants’ scheme. Ware is doing all right pass rushing, but getting turned inside by a TE is unexceptable. He has to do better.

On offense, Dallas has to take that 3 yard out to Cambell out of the play book. On turkey day Champ brought a Bledsoe INT to the house (which cost then the game) and last week it was almost lights out when Suratin mised an easy TD if he hauls in the INT late in the game. .. Bledsoe has been great working the middle of the field and taking a few shots deep each game. I believe Barber and Witten compliment each other well. If the teams top cover LB covers Witten, then Barber should have a mismatch, and vise versa. Keyshawn has been finding creases in zones, and of course Terry has been awesome running past everyone. If Crayton can return to his pre-injury form, this offense can be very efficient on 3rd downs and when they choose to pass it on 1st.

by Eric Richard on Dec 16, 2005 8:08 PM CST reply actions

Great analysis as usual.

The Cowboys have been involved in 10 close games this year, the most of any NFL team. They’re 5-5 in those games. In addition, they’ve have 3 “easy” victories.

I think this trend will continue through the end of the season, in this way:

Cowboys win close vs WAS, 21-17
Cowboys lose close vs CAR, 14-17
Cowboys blow out STL, 31-14
—
10-6

The Giants lose Sunday to Chiefs and win against Oakland. So whether or not the Cowboys take the division hinges on if Washington can beat the Giants next week. If not, they’re in as a wild card.

by Len on Dec 16, 2005 8:09 PM CST reply actions

Eric,

I agree with you on Ware. However, he was getting better in the second quarter of the season and seems to have hit a wall after the bye. He’s regressed.

by Rafael Vela on Dec 16, 2005 8:36 PM CST reply actions

You can guarantee they will be coming after our secondary, if we don’t get pressure on the old man. We will be in for a long game.

by PissedOffFan on Dec 16, 2005 8:42 PM CST reply actions

When was the last time Washington swept Dallas in the season? It has to be many many years ago.

by linus on Dec 16, 2005 9:33 PM CST reply actions

Linus…it was ’95…they stunk and we won the Super Bowl.

by Rev. Michael on Dec 16, 2005 9:58 PM CST reply actions

Just a thought about offense for this game:

Imagine the first Cowboys offensive play as being a 3 WR set with TG, Key, and Crayton, Witten at TE and MBIII in the backfield. Suddenly Bledsoe calls an audible and Witten splits out into a slot position. Joe Gibbs and Greg Williams feel a knot in the pit of their stomachs thinking about their cornerbacks who haven’t practiced all week. Bledsoe drops into a shotgun as the Redskins strong side linebacker shifts to cover Witten in the slot. The Skins middle and weakside linebackers and strong safety creep up closer to the line of scrimmage reading pass. Joe Gibbs and Greg Williams suddenly remember that Bledsoe actually has cannon and can bomb it deep. Bledsoe hikes it on a hard count with 1 second left on the play clock and the entire Redskins defense rushes into his face like a jailbreak. Bledsoe casually lobs it over the mayhem to MBIII on a screen right in the middle of the hashmarks while the 4 other Cowboys receivers/TE block the remaining defenders. The play only goes 28 yards…but the seed is planted.

Next play…1st and 10 from their own 48 yard line…Dallas lines up in the same 3 WR formation and Bledsoe audibles into shotgun again.

Gibbs and Williams suddenly realize this is going to be a long evening. Gibbs rasps increduously to Williams into his Motorola headset, “This is a Parcells offense?”

After three touchdowns and one incredibly long shotgun draw play later the Redskins realize they really aren’t a playoff team yet after all. ;)

by Sterling on Dec 17, 2005 1:04 AM CST reply actions

Sterling,
Such imagination my friend. I think this going to be a tough game.. since we have been in some strange games with the skins thought the years. Hopefully we will prevail by pressing the QB and double covering moss. On offense keep going deep, and creative screen passes to offset their blitz.

by Toast on Dec 17, 2005 2:56 AM CST reply actions

Rafael,

Yeah true it seems as if he has not found that natural instinctive play yet. It looks as if he is gathering so much information and he is thinking too much. But the longer he is in this system the better he will become.

.. A few of the rushes last week were as a 3-4 DE late in the game, and if he can take that instinctive nature and apply it to his LB postion, he will be special. .. Just looking at the kid his movements are at times so fluid. A very very good sign. And while others may have seen this before me, last week at the end of the game was really the first time it struck my eyes, well with some consistancy at least.

by Eric Richard on Dec 17, 2005 9:30 AM CST reply actions

Anybody been to Foxsports.com today? There’s an article on the front page about Parcells & Detroit. Just some guy probably attempting to start a story out of nothing. He does however say that Jerry Jones has offered a contract extension to BP for after next year, but he hasn’t signed it.

by Dave on Dec 17, 2005 9:48 AM CST reply actions

Raf,
You’re right on again. This will indeed be another close one, and I will have the Alka Seltzer ready. The Redskins, like our Cowboys, have been an up and down team, but with much wider swings.

They blow out San Francisco one week, then lay an egg the following week against the Giants. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense has been more consistent, not allowing any team to blow us out, while the offense is either lighting it up, or staying close enough to either win or lose close games.

I see a hotly contested game, with the weather preventing a lot of scoring. As a result, turnovers will be a key in this one.

The biggest task for the Dallas D will be stopping Clinton Portis. We will see a lot of him, especially because of our inability to stop the run, the last few games. I don’t think Moss will be a big factor Sunday.

Not to be overlooked, is the injuries to their secondary. As a result I expect to see us exploiting that a few times, weather permitting.

I think BP will give the Skins a “Dose Pack” of JJ and MBIII. Come on, you don’t really expect to see a lot of passing two weeks in a row now do you? Could this be the game JJ runs for 100 yards?

I believe BP trusts JJ more than MBIII if the weather turns ugly, much to aw’s dismay, since he’s more surehanded. However, MBIII has certainly improved in that area, so it may be a moot point, who gets the carry, as long as they get solid blocking up front.

We’ll control the clock, if our o-line can play another solid game, otherwise it will be another long day for Bledsoe.I think we’ll to see Crayton come up big in a key situation, and we’ll win another close nailbiter.

Cowboys 17 Redskins 14

by onepaniolo on Dec 17, 2005 10:39 AM CST reply actions

Dave,

I checked them out and saw nothing. You never say never, cause Parcells has walked on a team before and Jerry hasn’t always had the best relationships with domineering egos. That said, Parcells is under contract for 2006. Any move, hypothetical or real, will yield Dallas at minimum Detroits’ #1. When Parcells went to New York, I think the Pats got several top picks, including a first.

by Rafael Vela on Dec 17, 2005 3:25 PM CST reply actions