Cowboys - Panthers Preview

by Rafael Vela on Dec 23, 2005 12:47 PM CST in Dallas Cowboys Games

The Panthers worst loss this year came against the Bears. In that game Chicago provided the blueprint for a Dallas win Saturday. It allowed Steve Smith to go crazy, as he caught 14 passes for 169 yards. But they kept him from the highlight play. He had no receptions behind the defense; he did not catch a quick hitch and then race 60 yards for a score. Chicago let him have 10 and 12 yards hooks and outs and then tackled him.

The Bears smothered everything else. No other Carolina receiver had more than 20 yards. DeShaun Foster was limited to 41 yards on the ground. Jake Delhomme was sacked eight times. When he got frustrated, he threw two crippling interceptions.

On the offensive side of the ball, Chicago ran stubbornly, if not effectively. Thomas Jones averaged 3.5 yards per carry, a familiar number to Dallas fans. But Chicago gave it to him 25 times, helping them win the time of possession battle. Kyle Orton threw for only 136 yards, but made only one mistake, beating Delhomme in picks 2 to 1.

What Chicago exposed, more than anything else, is that the '05 Panthers, in many ways, resemble the '05 Cowboys. Their offensive tackles have trouble protecting against strong rushers. Their much ballyhooed power running game has sputtered all year, with neither Stephen Davis nor Deshaun Foster averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry. Their passing game is Steve Smith and nothing else: he's got over 1,400 yards receiving and is more than 800 yards ahead of Carolina's second rated receiver.

John Fox has won games the way that Bill Parcells was winning them in the middle of the season. Lean on your defense, run the ball relentlessly, even if the opponent is stopping you much of the time. Take some well-chosen shots at Smith. Win the turnover and time of possession battles and grind out close, 20 to 14 or 20 to 17 wins.

Dallas can win this game. Terence Newman, with a little help, can contain Smith in the same way Chicago did. He can stop 40 to 60 yard breakouts. The long pass to Eddie Kennison was the only touchdown caught behind him this year and that was the safety's fault.

The bigger question is the front seven. Why have they regressed so much of late? They've suffered no major injuries, in the way the secondary has. Dat Nguyen's loss has been felt, but it has been weeks since he was healthy.

This game will turn on their pride and on d-line coach Kacey Rogers' rotation. Dallas needs Scott Fujita, Demarcus Ware and Kevin Burnett to play with abandon against the run. Rogers also needs to see that Greg Ellis is on the field as much as possible on passing downs. His reps have declined recently, especially on passing downs, but he's been the spark for the pass rush when he's been in.

If Dallas can put Carolina in second and third and long sitations and get Ellis, Chris Canty, Ware and LaRoi Glover on the field in those situations, they can pressure Delhomme. Watch first down carefully. The Panthers like to hammer it on first down too. If Foster can be held to two to three yard gains, this game will be available. If he starts ripping off seven, eight and nine yard gains on toss plays, we're looking at another long afternoon.

Dallas will have to win those run-down matchups because the offense won't have the luxury of a Kansas City-style game plan. The Panthers defense is much closer to the Redskins in philosophy and performance, which means Dallas will need to protect Drew Bledsoe as much as possible. Carolina's ends are the best Dallas has faced since the Giants game, and we know what Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan did. In fact, we know what lesser ends like Philip Daniels can do if Dallas leaves its tackles in solo protection schemes. If Torrin Tucker and Rob Petitti are left alone against Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker, this game will be over by halftime.

Look for Dallas to slam the ball inside, no matter how erratic and ugly the results might be. The line does rip open holes from time to time. And Carolina lacks some ballast in the middle, since DT Kris Benson was lost early in the season to a leg injury.

If Bledsoe can get some time, he can make some throws downfield. The Panthers weakness is its secondary, especially right corner Chris Gamble. Dallas will have matchup advantages and should get receivers open. The bigger question is whether Bledsoe will have to time to locate them.

If the game plan goes to form the kickers will play a much more important role this week, especially Mat McBriar. His weak punts contributed to Dallas last first half collapse, giving the Redskins very short fields. Dallas needs him to return to form, since field position will be criticial if Dallas hopes to win.

Prediction:
A win over Carolina is possible. As banged up as they are, Dallas nevertheless has the talent on the field to win the game. The bigger question is whether a win is probable? In order for the plan to work, the OLBs, the secondary, McBriar, the offensive line and Bledsoe will all have to work at a high level.

I can see, in fact I expect to see, the team rebound from last week's humiliation. I expect to see desperation and heart. The kids have been in 13 of their 14 games, something I didn't expect and I imagine few others expected at the beginning of the year. However, I also expect to see mistakes. All the units I named have been error prone and somewhere along the line, I think more penalties or turnovers will pop up to plague them.

I hate writing this, but I see another hard-fought game that comes up short.

Carolina 17, Dallas 13

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Comments

Het Cowboy Fans,

Raf:

You have to keep the faith brother.

Yeas I could see that score also except:
Dallas 17
Carolina 13

I think this team will rebound with their best defensive effort of the year. Offensively they will have problems but I look for the defense to give them good field position all afternoon. Don`t get me wrong, this team will not go far in the playoffs if they get in. There is not enough consistency on either side of the ball. But this one Saturday afternoon in Carolina the Dallas “D” will stop the not so explosive Panthers.

I wish all viewers & their families
A HAPPY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
And yes I will say it : MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL !!!

by Jesse NY on Dec 23, 2005 1:12 PM CST reply actions

I agree Raf. We “can” win this one. But will we? Call me hard headed but I still put it on the o-line. I think they will be better than last week…could they be much worse? If they are servicable…adequate…not treadful, then we win by less than a touchdown. If they aren’t good enough then we lose by 10 to 14 due to our defense being worn down by being on the field too much.

I have decided this week to be positive about the Boys though. I am donning Sean’s rose-colored glasses though I am not partaking of his kool-aid. I am not expecting or looking for a playoff run but I am searching for positive and ignoring (until the offseason) the negative. We are MUCH better than last year! I can’t believe how our secondary has turned around. We have some very young and very promising players in our front seven. When is the last time we could say that? Crayton has me pumped about his potential in the coming years…a slightly more talented K-Mart? I am watching for progress, not greatness, from young o-linemen and visualizing their competence as solid, game-hardened back-ups. I love Marion and Julius. I will not choose a favorite but root for whoever will carry the rock hard! And I will enjoy watching the Redskins and Eagles miss the playoffs as well as the Giants be crushed in the first round due to 6 Eli interceptions.

Merry CHRISTmas all!

by Rev. Michael on Dec 23, 2005 1:21 PM CST reply actions

Rev. Michael-That Kool-Aid character just burst through my wall so I’m taking a big swig. I don’t imagine there will be many takers. I think this team will focus and redeem themselves for the showing last week by taking control of the running game.

I was a huge K-mart fan in the day but I see Crayton as much more talented. K-Mart was great at finding the voids in the zone and sitting down for Troy to get teh ball to him. Not much of a deep threat or run after catch as I remember. Kinda small too. Crayton has the size, speed and ability to be an occasional game breaker. Crayton reminds of K-Mart from a hands perspective, both have great hands.

by Sean on Dec 23, 2005 2:15 PM CST reply actions

Rafael:

I also think that they can win the game, still with Bledsoe getting thrown to the ground as much as he’s going to. That’s why I think it’s going to be closer, something like 13-10…

by Chandus on Dec 23, 2005 2:18 PM CST reply actions

Some other guys are saying that Dallas can win the game, I’ll name 2 that I respect: King of SI and Clayton of ESPN. They place light into the fact that Parcells is a dangerous coach to be faced in desperate times and right now Dallas needs to win with despair.

by Chandus on Dec 23, 2005 3:36 PM CST reply actions

It’s on Bledsoe guys. Obviously we need everyone to play well, but he’s the main guy here. If he manages the game and doesn’t turn it over, Dallas wins. And that includes fumbling snaps and handoffs. Even if protection breaks down, he needs to take sacks or throw it away, so we can punt and play defense. 0 turnovers by Bledoe = W. 2+ turnovers = L. 1 turnover = a really close game.

by mando on Dec 23, 2005 4:13 PM CST reply actions

In all respect mando, Aikman in his prime couldn’t have won with that protection last week. Bledsoe can’t play like an idiot…he has to show up but it all rides on the o-line play.

by Rev. Michael on Dec 23, 2005 5:12 PM CST reply actions

GOD, IF YOU GIVE ME THIS CHRISTMAS PRESENT. I WILL GO TO MASS AND CONFESSION ALL THE TIME

(some restrictions apply)

by mrwnt10 on Dec 23, 2005 5:31 PM CST reply actions

Of all the games this year, this will be the most important for previewing the future of our team. How well can this young team come back and play after the debacle of last week? Yes, talent is very important but football is so much a game of emotion and the will to win-what does the team have at this point in their development? Let’s hope BP and the coaching staff have lit a fire and the team comes out and plays with emotion. I’m predicting we win the game 21-17.
Merry Christmas to all!

by NorthStar on Dec 23, 2005 5:46 PM CST reply actions

Parcells says he isn’t saying much to the team. He says he is allowing the “veteran” players to handle the younger players’ focus and drive. What do y’all think of that?

by Rev. Michael on Dec 23, 2005 5:59 PM CST reply actions

By the way…we are presently behind the Giants blog 203-199.

by Rev. Michael on Dec 23, 2005 6:03 PM CST reply actions

Rev. Michael:

I think BP knows that being a great coach isn’t leaving things to just the vets. I’m guessing that he will justifiably point to the preparation and game day execution as a culmination of effort for the whole season. If he can’t motivate the team for this game (and the players don’t execute) it will be long off-season, indeed.

by NorthStar on Dec 23, 2005 6:06 PM CST reply actions

hopefully we do come out with some heart and walk away with a W. carolina is a real good team and i see a defense battle brewing, prediction is low scoring 17-20 tops either way.

MERRY CHRISTMAS

by mike on Dec 23, 2005 6:26 PM CST reply actions

Both teams run often for low yardage, and I’d like to see 2005 Julius Jones look like 2004 Julius Jones for one game.
I’m hoping for a win but, realistically, will be happy if the Cowboys get out of Carolina with no contagions from the Panthers’ cheerleaders.

by Lee on Dec 23, 2005 8:28 PM CST reply actions

I think the Carolina game presents a real opportunity for Parcells to outcoach the other team. And I am talking schemes, game plan, and motivating his team. I certainly think Parcells will create a plan by which the team can win — this is one of Parcells strong suit. So there is hope

by linus on Dec 23, 2005 9:38 PM CST reply actions

If it is true that BP isn’t saying much to his team this could be a good way to see how much internal heart they have. He might also be starting the tryouts for next year. If anybody shows up gutless BP could cut them(if we lose) and sign away some hidden treasure from some practice squad for the last game and their rights for next year.

by Sean on Dec 23, 2005 9:52 PM CST reply actions

Happy Holidays, folks. Best wishes to y’all and to DeMarcus Ware wreaking havoc on Jake DelHomme’s trachea.

Jake is terribly unimpressive. If he’s got just a hint of pressure, he folds like a… um… like an accordion. I watched him play two weeks ago, and I was amazed at how bad he can be. He owes Muhsin Muhammed and Steve Smith quite a lot.

by joey2zs on Dec 23, 2005 10:03 PM CST reply actions