Divisional Playoffs Pick'Em
by Rafael Vela on Jan 12, 2006 11:34 PM CST
in Dallas Cowboys Games
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PrintAh, 3-1 last week. Not bad, but boy was I wrong about the Giants and Panthers. Going for 4-0 this week.
AFC
New England over Denver
I saw big chunks of their regular season matchup. The Broncos race out to a 28-3 lead. The Patriots try a comeback and get within 28-20. The play that sticks with me comes at about the six minute mark. Tom Brady drops back on a third and long and finds one of his receivers running free in the deep middle. In the long past words of Keith Jackson, "he was so alone, he was lonesome." Brady leads him perfectly. It looks like the Pats will get new downs inside the 20 or a TD and a chance to tie the game.
The guy drops the ball. Pats punt. Game over.
That was then. That Pats defense was held together with tissue and paper clips. Richard Seymour -- out; Rodney Harrison -- out; Tedy Bruschi -- out; the Pats secondary -- putrid. New England still has a weak secondary but nobody can run on it of late. The front seven is healthy. The pass rush has returned.
On the other hand, the Broncos have looked a little soft down the stretch. The Cowboys should have beaten them. The Chiefs did. The Ravens took them to the final gun. They got two easy ones at the end against two teams, the Raiders and Chargers, who were done.
I don't know if Denver can flip a switch and turn it on again. Moreover, I don't know how they can switch on a pass rush they never had this year. Denver racked up just 28 sacks and needed strong production from its linebackers and SS John Lynch to even get that many. If Denver has to bring six and seven men to get heat on Tom Brady, it's playing into the master's hands. I see 28-20 again, but with the teams reversed.
Colts over the Steelers
I saw their regular season matchup too. Indy had too much speed for Pittsburgh, on both sides of the ball. The only way I see the Steelers winning is if they can control the ball for 36 to 38 minutes and get a little turnover help from Peyton Manning and his friends. Pittsburgh's defense looked shaky against the Bengals. They're playing a better offense and a better defense this week.
NFC
Seahawks over Redskins
I also watched their first game back in October. It was the week after Joe Gibbs' comeback against Dallas and his guys pulled one out here too. I've read a lot of reviews this week on the big sites. They all point to Washington's defensive dominance. What the reporters miss was that Washington played a reversal of the Cowboys game -- they controlled most of the game and let Seattle back in it late. Seattle ran a 14 play, 91 yard drive up Washington's gut to tie it late. They then intercepted Mark Brunell two plays after the kickoff and had first and ten just outside the Washington 30 with 49 seconds to go.
That's when Mike Holmgren went Marty Schottenheimer on us. Instead of trying a bootleg pass or some play that could get his offense within the 25, he hammered Shaun Alexander twice inside and tried to position the ball in the middle of the field.
You know the rest, right? Josh Brown clanked his kick off the left upright. The Redskins scored in overtime and went crazy again.
The stat lines were balanced then. I don't expect that to happen Saturday. Washington's offense has disappeared since Brunell injured his knee against the Giants. They had to sweat out a game against a backup Eagles team and were shut down completely by the Bucs. Monte Kiffin showed the world how to gameplan. Stack the line, shut down Clinton Portis, take away Chris Cooley's waggles, rotate your free safety to Santana Moss' side and wait for the punts.
Washington has won its last two games on turnovers. Gregg Williams is on an incredible steak of late, calling defenses that match his opponent perfectly. But injuries may finally have worn his margin for error away. DE Reynaldo Wynn was lost with a broken arm. The secondary is playing on fumes. You know the Seahawks will try to bait Sean Taylor after his spitting fine.
Let's put it this way: the Redskins can win by forcing more turnovers and scoring with their defense, but right now, it's the only way they can win. And it's asking a lot for them to do it three weeks in a row, all on the road.
Panthers over the Bears
Note to self -- if you pick a team to win the Super Bowl, don't pick against them come playoff time.
I picked the Panthers to win it all back in August. So I pick the Giants to take them out. Foolish me. The Bears handed the Panthers their worst beating in week 11. The score was only 13-3 but Chicago manhandled the Panthers line, sacking Jake Delhomme eight times. The pressure was all from Chicago's front four. That should favor Chicago again, right?
Not really. The Bears got two early gifts from Delhomme. One pick let Chicago drive 8 yards for the game's only touchdown. A second Delhomme pick inside his 35 gave Chicago a field goal. That was the game. The Bears were able to tee off on Delhomme the rest of the way.
Their offense didn't do much either, amassing just over 250 yards. The Panthers just shut out an explosive Giants offense last week. Their job should be easier this week, against a one-dimensional Bears O.
Deshaun Foster, who ripped the Giants front seven last week, averaged 4.6 yards a carry back in November. But he only got nine carries, as his team was playing catchup. If Foster gets off to a decent start, look out. The Bears had no answer for Steve Smith then, as he caught 14 passes for 169 yards. If Carolina mounts any early rushing attack, we're looking at a replay of the Giants win, where play action to Smith broke New York's back.
That's my take. It's your turn.
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Comments
It’s the same in every game. Pats, Colts, Hawks and Cats. But after last week I’m off bets.
by Chandus on Jan 13, 2006 12:48 AM CST reply actions
These are going to be some very good hard hitting games. I would rather see the Cowboys playing, but I can appreciate a good ole smashmouth winter playoff game even if I am completely ambivalent about the outcome.
The game I am looking forward to seeing the most is the Steelers and Colts. There is so much under the surface in this one. The Steelers came out last weekend with more swagger and moxey than I think I have ever seen a Bill Cowher team have. They were downright mean and they clearly wanted to intimidate the Bengals from the outset. I really get the feeling that Cowher is fed up with making the postseason and losing in the playoffs. He hasn’t been to the Super Bowl in 10 years now!! Same as Cowboys, unfortunately, but he has been close quite a few times in that 10 years. I think he has the longest tenure of any active coach in the NFL (unless it’s Jeff Fisher, I forget exactly), so he’s got to be sick of being close but not close enough. The Colts are going to obviously be playing with a lot of emotion and passion after the month they’ve had and because of what’s at stake in their own Dome. I would think they are going to be anxious to get in there and knock the cobwebs off and get their mojo back. They know this season is the best chance they have had so far to win it all since they won’t have to go to Foxboro, and they also know the window is closing on what they’ve got. So much at stake for both teams in this game, I can hardly wait to see it. I think the Steelers punch them in the face early, rattle Peyton, control the clock and pull off the upset. I can’t help but think of that AFC Championship game in 1995.
The other games should be good too, except the Broncos and Patriots. I can’t stand either of them. It’s too bad one of them has to win. For me it’s about like choosing between death by drowning or being burned to death. Mile High is a tough place to win in the dead of winter, even if they call it Invesco Field. I have to pick the Patriots though, they are the champions (gag) until someone beats them.
Rain in Seattle…Redskins get all wet and lose. This should be comical. I hope they enjoyed last week all they possibly could because that will be the peak of their success for the next 5 or 6 years minimum. Have fun on draft day.
Panthers and Bears should be a real smashfest too. I don’t know what the over/under is, but I’d still take the under. I hope and think the Panthers win, but I think this will be a close one.
by Sterling on Jan 13, 2006 2:41 AM CST reply actions
Rafael,
I just want to point out that the Patriots-Broncos game will be in Denver, where the Broncos have a historic advantage, and where they have won all 8 of their games this year, including the one against the Patriots.
That is not to say that you might be right, and the Patriots will win. But that is one huge home-field advantage to pick against.
by Mr. Bill on Jan 13, 2006 2:44 AM CST reply actions
Washington is going to have a very rough time with an erratic and injured Brunell. Their defensive end is out, and with a ‘tired’ secondary, pretty old…well, Alexander has a career day, and finally puts an end to the ‘myth’ that Washington had the hardest schedule as well as the best defense in the ‘whole’ NFL…Seattle by 14
New England is coming fully alive at the wrong time of the year for Denver. Even with an offensive tackle by the name of Ashworth, the Patriots are executing very well…Even while playing at home, I have to doubt the ability of a defense that relies upon Michael Myers and Ekuban to bring the heat to stop a very talented Brady and a fair running back, Dillon…New England by 7.
Dallas showed that a team can shut down the Carolina offense, and I feel that Chicago, if anyone else can, will. Even with the Carolina defense seeming to get on track again…I think there is enough punch in the Chicago running game, to give them a touchdown and a couple of defense related field goals…and I don’t think that even Smith is able to keep them on their heels…giving Chicago the usual defensive win that it historically accustomed to….Bears by 3
Even with Indianapolis’ history of playoff exits…I think this is the year that the production of the Colts is just too intense, even with the sorrow of Dungy, the Colts are going to at the minimum, be in the AFC championship game… as James as a good day running…Colts by 10.
by CCBoy on Jan 13, 2006 3:51 AM CST reply actions
I don’t like the Steelers. I’m tired of the Patriots (Brady this and Brady that). End it, please, Jake. I hate the Redskins. I like Chicago because they’ve been down so long. Time to rise up.
by mlf on Jan 13, 2006 9:30 AM CST reply actions
I like the Bronco’s, the Patriots run is over. The Jaguars didn’t even put up a fight, and made the Pats look better than they are.
Colts over the Steelers, who knows what would have happened if Palmer didn’t get injured. People forget that even with Kitna in there, they were still up at half time. Wait another year Cowher.
Seahawks over the Redskins. This one won’t even be close. Too much Alexander, the passing game will flourish, Seattle in a rout.
The game that intigues me the most is the Panthers/Bears game. I’m going with the Panthers based on their ability to perorm at a high level, along with playoff experience. The Bears offense is anemic at times, if they get behind, they are done.
The wild card in this game is the weather. We all know how bad it can be to play a game there in january, and I think that may give the Bears the advantage. If they happen to get up early with a couple bad bounces, or a Delhomme interception, they can then turn the defense loose, and then who knows. I’m going to go with the Panthers though, I think they have the experience and will pull out a close one.
by bushpilot on Jan 13, 2006 10:37 AM CST reply actions
Mr. Bill,
I’m well aware of it. It’s always been a huge advantage to Denver. But I recall many playoff games they should have lost and won solely because some guy name Elway bailed them out. He’s gone. There is a guy with that star quality, but he’s playing on the other team.
by Rafael Vela on Jan 13, 2006 10:44 AM CST reply actions
Hello Cowboy fans,
Hey Raf:
I agree with you 3 of 4.
I think the Bears are for real. I think this team will be in the superbowl ! Who was the quaterback for the Bears when they beat Carolina ? Ort was handcuffed. He was told to go out & hand it off without making a mistake. Now that Grossman is back he is a definite upgrade & I believe he will be able to throw the ball effectively since the Bears will go all out to win these next few games.
Chicago 20
Carolina 10
by Jesse NY on Jan 13, 2006 12:14 PM CST reply actions
imagine 40 degrees in Chicago in January. The weather gods have shined on Carolina. Had the weather looked like it did for Vick on a night game I would say Chicago…..3-0 and that would be all it would take.
I think that game hinges more on Foster than Delhomme. But that Bears defense is been sitting there chewing on the bit for two weeks. They face a well coached team, but Defense wins out. Urlacher has silenced all Critics and shows incredible speed at LB. If he can run down Vick, he will kill Foster and Delhomme. If Stephen Davis and Foster were in the backfield…..well it might be a better ending for Carolina.
Besides it is the year of Chicago just ask the Southside Sox.
Bears 17 Carloina 7
Denver has long had that mile high advantage. Last time I checked Boston was squarely at sea level. This one is a toss up, and I hate to pick against Belichek. If it was the old Jake it would be easy…..but it ain’t jake it is the Offensive line and Running backs. Just like Elway lost til Shanahan improved th O Line and added TD as the beginning of the best continuous revolving door at running back in perhaps league history. Jake just has to manage……and that he is capable of. Hech they had Ruben Droughns, and Clinton Portis castoffs go over a grand this year…..and made Ron Dayne a highlight on our own beloved Cowboys. Denver’s front seven ain’t great but as we all remember Champ is not a chump….and Pryce required double teams……Brady and company lose to high altitude sickness…….and the Colts roll Denver next week.
Steelers are not as good on D as San Diego or Pats. They will not stop Peyton and Company. He will roll em up early and often and be sitting on the sidelines in the 4th. Whether you like it or not this is Peyton’s year. The pats would give Indy a better game, but I don’t think they get there. Did I really just say Belichek would not get there……I may regret that one. Brady and Belichek have ice in their veins……oh well.
by Jon Bartlett on Jan 13, 2006 12:30 PM CST reply actions
I’ll stick with the seeds:
AFC:
Donkies kick the Patsies
Colts roll over Steelers
NFC:
Seahawks blow the foreSkins
da Bears maul the Panthers
by Fighter15 on Jan 13, 2006 12:59 PM CST reply actions
Carolina was my only correct choice last week, but this time I’ve got them wired:
Seahawks over Redskins
Broncos over Pats
Steelers over Colts
Bears over Panthers
by Lee on Jan 13, 2006 1:15 PM CST reply actions
Even though the Broncos are hard to beat at home in the winter time, Keep in mind that Shanahan has yet to win a single playoff game since Elway retired. I can’t stand either team, so I could care less who wins…but that Belichick is a sneaky one, and they are still the Champions.
by Sterling on Jan 13, 2006 2:58 PM CST reply actions
i thought the Broncos were one of the better teams we faced all year. We beat em, and with a good kicker we win the game.
Our defense is better than new england. We might not have the LBs they do, but I say we got the DBs they don’t. I think Jake can do enough and that oline…….still Belichek will be ready and Brady looks like a man on a mission…..i think it should be the best game of the whole bunch. Jake also won a few of those shootouts even though he had nothing in Arizona to play with.
Other than the Skins losing…..i really don’t care who wins this year……Chicago and Seattle were lovable losers for years…..Colts are underachievers that Peyton does not want to be yet another Fouts or Marino in the hall with stats and no ring…….i think the other games will not be that close….Car and Chi will be a closer score than the game is close……Seattle is going to turn it up for their first home game and beat down the Redskins. I think they will roll all over Washington…….their D ain’t as good as DCs or Tampas but Alexander at home and Hasselback are going to finally live up to their expectations of what the last 3 years.
Colts beat Seahawks in Super Bowl…….
by Jon Bartlett on Jan 13, 2006 3:22 PM CST reply actions
Broncos – Brady will struggle on the road
Seahawks – the Hawks won’t lose to the Skins
Colts – Dome
Panthers – nice defensive matchup; neither team should be able to run the ball well so I’ll take my chances with a more experienced QB in a playoff game.
by Anna Maria on Jan 13, 2006 7:20 PM CST reply actions
I won’t make the same mistake as the host of the blog. I picked Pittsburgh to win it all in September, and I’ll stick with them. The Steelers defense tends to struggle against good passing teams, and probably will against the Colts. Again I say, Pittsburgh has 1 loss with a healthy Rothlisberger, and they will eat up chunks of time by running the football and using a short passing game. Thus keeping their defense off the field.
New England usually tries to take away what a team does best offensively. They have been very good against the run recently, but now have the #2 rushing team in the NFL to contend with. The Broncos have been erratic at times this year, but have always been a very good team at home (8-0). Denver played one of the toughest schedules, a much harder schedule than the Pats, and Denver came out with the better record. Champs don’t die easy, but I think its the Broncos here.
Carolina is primed for another Super Bowl run. They have saved their best play for the playoffs, the last two times they have made it. Can you imagine where they would be if they had ris Jenkins all year? The Bears are as good as anyone on the defensive side. It keeps them in this one for a long time. Enough time for the Bears to make a couple of plays offensively and win the game.
I believe in running the football and playing good defense. That is why if Clinton Portis is healthy, the Redskins have a whale of a chance to knock off the Seahawks. With Sean Taylor, the Skins D looked solid, and although I feel he shouldn’t be suiting up, he is. Washington will gain more than the 124 yards they had last week, but nothing to make this one pretty. Still they shut down Alexander and force Hassleback to beat them, which he doesn’t.
So there you have it, I was 3-1 last week, and pick Washington (although I will be happy if I get this 1 wrong), Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Denver to move on.
by Eric R on Jan 14, 2006 5:01 AM CST reply actions
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