Super Bowl Profile Offers No Help
Back in November, I created a metric to determine who the Super Bowl favorites might be. I went back to it today to see if it offered any help for predicting the conference title games this Sunday.
I looked at the 78 Super Bowl contestants and found that using only points scored and points allowed could help predict the eventual champion. I found that approximately 75% of NFL champs were ranked in the top ten in both scoring offense and defense.
The second point I found was that scoring defense was the better determinant than scoring offense. Only two NFL champs ever had a defense ranked lower than 11th in scoring.
What do this year's numbers show? Nothing but mud. Mull over these stats:
Scoring Offense
1. Seattle 28.2 points per game;
7. Denver 24.7 ppg;
8. Carolina 24.4 ppg;
9. Pittsburgh 24.3 ppg;
Scoring Defense
3. Pittsburgh 16.1 ppg;
3. Denver 16.1 ppg;
5. Carolina 16.2 ppg;
7. Seattle 16.9 ppg;
No edge that I can see, except that Seattle has a slight advantage in scoring offense. All four teams rank in the top ten in offense and defense. Their points allowed stats are amazingly similar, as are the offensive numbers of Denver, Pittsburgh and Carolina.
You can pull names out of hat and have as much luck as a fine-grained analysis of offense, defense and special teams. Playoff parity has worked. We have four clones fighting for the title.
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I remember when you originally posted this and I found it very interesting, but I think these results got to affirming something else I have been thinking about since Sunday. Specifically, I don’t see any of these 4 teams as being a dominant enough team (or franchise) to do anything more than win it this year. The way I look at it this season is kind of a transitional one where the Patriots “Dynasty” will be put to sleep and whichever team wins it this year will likely not be back for quite some time. This year reminds me of the years the Ravens and Bucs won it. The Ravens put an end to the Broncos run, and the Bucs were an interruption in the Patriots championship runs.
For most of the season the Colts looked like the kind of team that could have potentially strung together a few Super Bowl appearances, but now after Sunday who knows. I just don’t see a truly dominating team out of this lot. This is good though…it gives the Cowboys a more wide open field to navigate through.
by Sterling on Jan 17, 2006 4:32 PM CST reply actions
Actually the Rams put an end to the Broncos back to back championships, I always forget about that one. My point is just that I don’t sense that there is one or two or even three dominant franchises in the NFL at the moment like there was in previous decades. I know the Patriots are technically not done…but my sense is that they won’t be back for a long time. Just my gut instinct.
by Sterling on Jan 17, 2006 4:43 PM CST reply actions
Sean Payton is the new head coach of the Saints. At least that’s over with.
by Sterling on Jan 17, 2006 5:10 PM CST reply actions
SEAN PAYTON IS SIGNING WITH THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
dang it, why do we need to do this to our offense right NOW??
by mrwnt10 on Jan 17, 2006 5:10 PM CST reply actions
mrwnt10:
Why does who need to do what to whom? Are you seriously bothered that he’s leaving or are you joking around? He got offered a job that pays more and is what he wants to do with his career. JJ and Parcells can’t stop him from taking it, and I don’t see where Payton has done anything to deserve more money from JJ to be OC next year.
I doubt if anyone will even notice he’s gone by the way the offense plays.
by Sterling on Jan 17, 2006 5:16 PM CST reply actions
Sterling
The rams didn’t stop the Broncos. John stop that I don’t even think they made the playoffs the third year. NE stop the Rams from back to back super bowls. The year NE didn’t win it, they didn’t make the play offs.
by aw on Jan 17, 2006 5:46 PM CST reply actions
aw:
I didn’t mean they literally stopped them as in beat them in the playoffs. I meant that the Rams were a transitional team that went to the Super Bowl and won it but never became a dynasty or anything like that. They made it again a few years later (I think the Ravens won it the year after the Rams did) and lost to the Pats when they were pretty heavily favored going into it. My point was only that I don’t see any of these 4 remaining playoff teams as anything more than a team who will win one Super Bowl after the Patriots run was over and then likely drop off and not go back for awhile. I don’t see any of these 4 as dominating teams who will win multiple Super Bowls. That’s it.
by Sterling on Jan 17, 2006 6:13 PM CST reply actions

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