Two More Draft Opinions

by Rafael Vela on Jan 20, 2006 1:12 PM CST in Dallas Cowboys General

Here's the relevant section of Mel Kiper's much-discussed first list. I've only included Dallas' section of the NFL lineup, since his list is subscription only:

15. Atlanta -- Michael Huff, FS/CB, Texas;
16. Miami -- Winston Justice, RT, USC;
17. Minnesota -- LenDale White, RB, USC;
18. Dallas -- Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech;
19. San Diego -- Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina;
20. Kansas City -- Ashton Youboty, CB, Ohio State;
21. New England -- Bobby Carpenter, OLB, Ohio State;

Here's a second opinion from Scott Wright's excellent, recommended and free Draft Countdown:

13. Baltimore -- Michael Huff, S, Texas
14. Philadelphia -- Chad Greenway, OLB, Iowa
15. Atlanta -- Tamba Hali, DE, Penn St.
16. Miami -- Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
17. Minnesota -- DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis St;
18. Dallas -- Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.;
19. San Diego -- Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina;
20. Kansas City -- Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech;
21. New England -- Ashton Youboty, CB, Ohio St.;

I must admit I don't like the Dallas predictions on either list. The Cowboys don't need another CB, certainly not with their #1 pick. And Williams projects as a corner, so he would be an angry holdout candidate if he was drafted to play safety, since those guys make less money.

Holmes may be the top rated WR, but I find Wright's logic a bit mystifying. He says Glenn is not a deep threat and that Holmes would be. Glenn had one of the best yards-per-reception averages in the NFL last year. What's more, he's the exact same size as Holmes. You're in effect getting a younger Glenn clone with Holmes.

The last time a Parcells team took a speedy wideout in the first round (Glenn, coincidentally, back in '95) he quit over the selection. He's never put top priority on this position and while Dallas could use another young threat outside, I don't think they'll take him in round one. There's no history to suggest it.

The guy who jumps out to me from these lists is safety Ko Simpson. He was a late applicant for the draft, so he hasn't gotten a lot of ink.

He's also the only sophomore to declare early. That's because Simpson sat out a year before playing, so it's been three years since his high school class graduated, making him eligible. He'll be a 23 year old rookie, but that shouldn't faze Dallas, which drafted Terence Newman as a 25 year old rookie.

Simpson nullifies everything I wrote yesterday about Michael Huff. It seems Huff is not the only top-tier safety available in the 11-20 range.

Tweet Comment 39 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Rafael,

I agree with you that these picks don’t make much sense for Dallas. I have found that many mock drafts fail to consider Parcells’ draft history. Namely, that he sees OTs and WRs as high risk picks and seldom or never drafts them in the first. I have found few, if any, mocks that go beyond what appears to be the team’s needs and consider what Parcells actually is likely to do.

by Ridgelake on Jan 20, 2006 1:55 PM CST reply actions

Raf
I don’t agree with Wright logic about Holmes but I would love the pick. We need a playmaker at WR. I would like a wr at about 6-2 with speed but moss and smith have been big time this year. Glenn had a high avg but he was or is not a playmaker period. We need one badly. I think we can get a FS in the second round or get a big corner to move to safety. Everything really depends on what we do with FA market.

by aw on Jan 20, 2006 2:07 PM CST reply actions

aw,

I don’t rule out a WR in rounds two or three. But this is one of the thinnest WR drafts in years, so I doubt they’ll force the pick. They also put up some highly respectable passing numbers last year and imagine they could do even better if the running game and pass protection were improved.

by Rafael Vela on Jan 20, 2006 2:24 PM CST reply actions

I’ll agree with the Holmes pick if three things happen:
1) If Chad Greenway is gone at OLB.
2) If Justice and Winston are gone at OT.
3) And if Dallas can’t find a partner for a trade down to the middle to late 20s.
There Holmes would have the most value, I’ve seen him blocking and there’re few players at his size that take the time to do it in the NFL and even less in College. Just like I was up for Clayton last year, I’m up for Holmes if there’s no other recourse.

by Chandus on Jan 20, 2006 2:27 PM CST reply actions

We should also all do well to remember JJ’s history of trading up or down in the draft, along with the strong likelihood that teams above or below us may trade up, down, or out of the first round entirely. There are almost guaranteed to be many twists and turns this year because of the quality and depth of this draft class and the level of parity in the league.

There are a lot of teams this year that feel (perhaps mistakenly) that they are only a key player or two away from being capable of making a title run. Last year there seemed to be more seperation and disparity, particularly at the divisional level. This year going into the final few games there was at least 3 divisions with 3 possible division winners in each of those divisions. Consider teams like the Chargers, Falcons, and Chiefs that are playoff contending teams that just missed, and then add in the other playoff teams who didn’t make it all the way, and then teams like the Dolphins, Vikings, and Ravens who could be (or think they are) only a few key players away. That parity makes for a fertile trading and dealmaking environment.

Last year the Randy Moss trade alone threw all the early mock drafts into total disarray. I had actually seen mock drafts last year with the Cowboys drafting Troy Williamson. I am sure Green Bay never guessed Aaron Rodgers would still be on the board, and the Randy Moss trade indirectly affected that as well as the rest of the whole 1st round.

by Sterling on Jan 20, 2006 2:28 PM CST reply actions

If he is still there Lendale White might
be a good choice assuming they can’t trade down.

by BECKER2 on Jan 20, 2006 2:36 PM CST reply actions

You guys know college ball much better than I do…is there no stud olb or o-lineman in the 10-20 range for Dallas? I would be much more excited about that than another cb which seems superfluous. I assume we might deal with some o-line issues in free agency but what is the college outlook at those two spots?

by Rev. Michael on Jan 20, 2006 2:37 PM CST reply actions

Becker,

LenDale White is rising. For a long time the mocks were saying he was Pittsburgh bound, since he had a late 1st grade and looks like Jerome Bettis’ friendly Frankenstein monster.

Since the Rose Bowl, he risen as fast as Vince Young. I’ve seen White going as high as Green Bay or Arizona in the top 10. Backs tend to fall, but he has sure thing written all over him.

by Rafael Vela on Jan 20, 2006 2:39 PM CST reply actions

aw:

You would like to draft a 6’2" playmaking wide receiver in the 1st round who can run a 4.3 in the 40?

Remember this name:

YATIL GREEN

WR’s in the 1st round are such a gamble. Unless you have a guy like Irvin on the board that was widely considered a can’t miss prospect at the time you can really get burned. Keep in mind that Landry had wasted a pick on Mike Sherrard a few years before he took Irvin.

We already have two good receivers and Crayton looks like he could be really good too. We don’t need to get a 1st round WR this year.

by Sterling on Jan 20, 2006 2:48 PM CST reply actions

Sterling
I would love a wr 6-2 with speed but like I said with moss and smith doing what they did this year smaller can be just as good. As of right now we don’t have a playmaker on this team. I have been on Crayton side since before the season stated. He is the only guy that can take a hit and make a play. You can bet on Glenn making it another full season( not saying he can’t). White would be a great pick too, he could carry the ball 25-30 times. Every player is a gamble in the first round. Holmes is the best WR in the draft.

Raf
I wouldnt mind getting a wr in the second round.

by aw on Jan 20, 2006 3:22 PM CST reply actions

If Holmes falls to #18 (which is far fetched, as he is the ONLY polished product out there with major league speed), I would also see the Cowboys passing.

I remember last year’s near revolt by many bloggers here about MUST have WR. Well, boys, your gonna be disappointed again.

The OLB corps is thin but very good at the top. Thus it could be in the plan, because anything below round 3 is scrub material.

However, there are a few really good OL that can be had in rounds 2 & 3 as well. But there is only one consensus #1 “The Brick”.

I’m lost…what do we need?

Oh yea, FS. And that’s where I disagree, Rafael. If Huff falls (or we package Ellis to move up a few spots), no brainer.

But Williams played FS in college and many scouting services project him there as well. Roy Williams, Polamalu, Taylor, etc., have redefined and closed the gaps on the perception and payscale. Jimmy Williams would, and will if drafted by Dalls, play FS…well.

But Simpson does intrigue. Just can’t imagine a 23 year old with enough physical maturity to handle the NFL. But if he can….

by Fighter15 on Jan 20, 2006 3:28 PM CST reply actions

Sterling-You brought up Mike Sherrard…Wasn’t he the guy that broke his own leg. I saw it on film. The guy is taking off from a WR stance, somehow gets his legs tangled up and kicks himself in the back of the calf, breaking the leg, which was about as big around as a broom handle. Was that him?

by Sean on Jan 20, 2006 3:37 PM CST reply actions

Like I said before, all it takes is one trade involving one of the 17 teams above us and the whole thing gets scrambled beyond recognition. The team needs will remain the same, but if a guy like LenDale White or some of the other top 15 players takes a tumble to 18 then anything can happen. If nothing else than to cut a deal to trade down for more picks, or perhaps think about taking him and trading either JJ or MBIII. You just never know what madness could unfold. I never ever ever thought Derrick Johnson would drop as far as he did last year.

aw:

We agree about the need for a playmaker. Just not a 1st round WR.

by Sterling on Jan 20, 2006 3:43 PM CST reply actions

Sean:

Mike Sherrard had so many injuries I can’t keep track of all of them. I just remember thinking when we got him that he was going to be the next Tony Hill. I think he once injured his ankle jogging at the beach during the offseason. The guy was made of glass. Another UCLA WR bust like Stokes and Mitchell. He’s best forgotten to me.

Still not as big a bust as Yatil Green was though.

by Sterling on Jan 20, 2006 3:53 PM CST reply actions

Sterling
You can find bust at every position in the first round. Every time a player is picked in the first round he is a sure thing or we wouldnt be picked that high. If Holmes is there at 18 I have no problem taking him, I don’t think he will be there.

by aw on Jan 20, 2006 4:21 PM CST reply actions

18. DALLAS COWBOYS
SANTONIO HOLMES
WR | Ohio St. | Scouting Report Most assume that Dallas will use this pick to upgrade at right tackle or free safety and while that is very possible it might be hard to pass on the consensus top wide receiver in the draft if he fell into their laps. Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn are still solid and relatively productive but provide little in the way of a big play threat, which is where Santonio Holmes comes in. While he isn’t the type of physically impressive receiver prospect we have seen in recent years like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald Holmes is very fast and explosive while also a good route runner and blocker. The Cowboys really need an upgrade over Rob Petitti along the offensive line and if Winston Justice were to somehow fall this far that would be a no-brainer with Marcus McNeill a strong possibility as well. Visions of that late collapse against Washington still probably keep Bill Parcells up at night so don’t rule out a safety to team with Roy Williams either, with Ko Simpson being a good fit. You can easily make a case for them looking elsewhere but Santonio Holmes would seem to be the perfect marriage of value and need for this team and with a deep class of offensive tackles and safeties in this draft they could address those positions a little later so they bring in a top offensive weapon to improve their passing game.

by aw on Jan 20, 2006 5:04 PM CST reply actions

By Mike McCollom, football.com Staff Writer

15. Atlanta Falcons- Tamba Hali DE Penn State
16. Miami Dolphins- Michael Huff S Texas
17. Minnesota Vikings- Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota
18. Dallas Cowboys- Jon Scott OT Texas
19. San Diego Chargers- Ko Simpson S South Carolina
20. Kansas City Chiefs- Rodrique Wright DT Texas

46. Philadelphia Eagles- Derek Hagan WR Arizona State
47. Atlanta Falcons- DeMario Minter CB Georgia
48. Miami Dolphins- Davin Joseph G/T Oklahoma
49. Minnesota Vikings- Greg Blue S Georgia
50. Dallas Cowboys- Kai Parham LB Virginia
51. San Diego Chargers- Ryan O’Callaghan T/G California
52. Kansas City Chiefs- Martin Nance WR Miami of Ohio
79. Atlanta Falcons- Anthony Smith S Syracuse
80. Miami Dolphins- Kelly Jennings CB Miami (FL)
81. Minnesota Vikings- Mike Degory C Florida
82. Dallas Cowboys- Sinorice Moss WR Miami (FL)
83. San Diego Chargers- Jarrett Hicks WR Texas Tech
I dont know about this one, what do you guys think?

by aw on Jan 20, 2006 5:09 PM CST reply actions

aw:

There are 1st round busts at every position. It is like everything else in life though: playing the probabilities. It seems like defensive front 7 players are less likely to be bust outs, at least mid-1st round ones. For a playmaker I am still on the Devin Hester bandwagon, he could be around in the 3rd. If we get an extra first day pick he would be a great value pick up IMO.

I like the Kai Parham at #50 pick on that mock list. Hope that works out!!

by Sterling on Jan 20, 2006 5:23 PM CST reply actions

Fighter 15,

I agree with you. Huff would be a no brainer. But I’ve seen him going as high as 9, so I’m highly skeptical that he’ll last to 18.

by Rafael Vela on Jan 20, 2006 6:09 PM CST reply actions

aw how about a quaterback?

by biz is winning on Jan 20, 2006 6:47 PM CST reply actions

aw,

Holmes isn’t even the best WR prospect on Ohio State. When Ginn comes out he’ll be highly regarded. In my opinion you can’t use 1st round draft choices for players who aren’t the #1 options on their college teams.

by Eric R on Jan 20, 2006 7:43 PM CST reply actions

I believe there are 3 scenarios with our 1st choice, that would really work out nicely.

1.) We trade up into the top 5 to get D’Brickshaw Ferguson. Possibly using Ellis or Glover as bait.

2.) Dallas trades right in front of Philly to draft Chad Greenway.

3.) The Cowboys stay put and selects either Bobby Carpenter or Ko Simpson.

With our 2nd selection, I still believe that Gabe Watson is a definate possibility. Jonathan Scott is another option here.

by Eric R on Jan 20, 2006 8:33 PM CST reply actions

Eric R:

I like Bobby Carpenter too. My other choice would be Kamerion Wimbley because I want to see us get another pass rusher.

Ginn is amazing. I’d take him over Holmes too. Holmes really reminds of a poor man’s Joey Galloway.

by Sterling on Jan 20, 2006 10:55 PM CST reply actions

AW:
As an observation, 6-1 and fast players can be obtained in FA, at least one is going to be let go in Houston, those are Corey Bradford and Jabar Gaffney, production and age makes me think that Houston will try to keep Gaffney, but he’s expected to become an UFA just to get the idea of his market value, I would jump at him in hopes of giving Crayton a pretty good competition for the 3rd WR spot.

by Chandus on Jan 21, 2006 2:27 AM CST reply actions

Other guys in FA that you could have an eye on are: David Givens (NE, 6-0), Dez White (Atl, 6-1) and Randy Hymes (Balt, 6-3). I wouldn’t mess with Reggie Wayne, he’s been productive, but how much of that has been part of Manning’s passes between the 8 and 7 is something that makes me think that he might never live up to what he’s going to get paid based on his past production.

by Chandus on Jan 21, 2006 2:40 AM CST reply actions

how about fs slay from texas tech he did win the award for best defensive back this year

by jeff24 on Jan 21, 2006 9:42 AM CST reply actions

dez white i sure hope not. i saw to much of him watching the bears when he actully catches the ball watch out for the fumbles. i said reggie wayne a week ago but hell probably want some good money.

by mike on Jan 21, 2006 9:51 AM CST reply actions

FS Dwayne Slay — Rose from a backup role into the Big 12 defensive player of the year after setting a conference record by forcing eight fumbles. The impact Slay brings as a hitter should earn him some looks, especially since he’s 6-3, 215.

He played free safety and runs a 4.5, maybe a good second day pick

by jeff24 on Jan 21, 2006 9:52 AM CST reply actions

source from foxsports.com

by jeff24 on Jan 21, 2006 9:53 AM CST reply actions

check this video: http://media.putfile.com/DwayneSlay

by jeff24 on Jan 21, 2006 10:15 AM CST reply actions

Its a pretty safe bet that we WON’t pick a QB, RB, WR in the first. QB and RB for obvious reasons, and also there are no sure fire WR’s either.
BP is reluctant to pick OT in the first as well- one rookie OT starting I think was enough for him. Obviously there are no OG or Centers worth a first. We certainly will not pick a TE. SO by process of elimination I say look at D for the first rd. That means either FS or LB. And if there is nothing worth it as we get close we will trade down for more picks.
Now if Nagata were to somehow fall, he would be a possibility. If we keep Glover I think not; if he is gone then NT becomes a need as well.

by burmafrd on Jan 21, 2006 2:55 PM CST reply actions

If Huff’s on the board he should be a Cowboy next season. I’ll be disappointed if he’s there and BP doesn’t grab him. I doubt he’ll be there though.

Otherwise I am guessing LB of some sort.

Parcells drafting acumen seem to be more evident on the second day and in the mid/late rounds. That’s where I trust him to find a great player that other teams have overlooked. It’s better to have a very solid and complete draft than only a few big name first day picks.

by Sterling on Jan 21, 2006 3:15 PM CST reply actions

Sterling:
As far as I can see, there’s depth at Safety and at Corners that look like tweeners. There’s little to no depth at 3-4 OLB, there’s some kind of depth in the DE/OLB tweeners but there’s no Ware or Pollack which were no brainers. I’ve to go OLB or ILB in the 1st.

by Chandus on Jan 21, 2006 3:50 PM CST reply actions

How about Texas A&M’s QB in the 3rd or 4th?

by joey2zs on Jan 21, 2006 4:16 PM CST reply actions

Chandus:

I’m OLB or ILB 1st round all the way. FS will most likely be sorted out prior to the draft anyway through FA. If Greenway’s off the board and Huff falls to #18 that’s the only way I see us going with Huff. Odds are he’ll be long gone, and so will Greeenway.

I’d take Huff over Carpenter, unless we’ve already signed a FA FS.

by Sterling on Jan 21, 2006 4:36 PM CST reply actions

joey2zs:

Are you watching the Shrine Game? Schlegel is really impressing me today. I didn’t know he was from Highland Park too.

Slay looks really good too. I bet he goes up on a lot of draft boards after the way he played today. The secret is out…darn.

by Sterling on Jan 21, 2006 5:51 PM CST reply actions

joey2zs:

That QB from A&M is amazing, at least in this game. Wow!! I am very impressed with this guy. Reggie McNeill is his name. Looks like the 2nd best college QB in the state of Texas to me.

by Sterling on Jan 21, 2006 6:06 PM CST reply actions