It was a good guess

by Dave Halprin on Dec 28, 2006 6:09 PM CST in Dallas Cowboys News

I don't go for a lot of "patting myself on the back" when I get something right in a post. The reason being that I get plenty of things wrong. But yesterday, I wrote a post - found here - where I speculated on the Cowboys using a 4-3 defense against the Lions. I came to the conclusion immediately after Parcells press conference yesterday because of a few items that he revealed. I admit, I wasn't very secure in my theory, but I put it out there for all to see. And I took some ribbing for it in some quarters of the Internet. But, it looks like I got this one right.

Here are some excerpts from yesterday's post:

First, [Parcells] said something about changes on defense that may be necessary and that would be obvious at the game. This was after he was questioned about Jay Ratliff and what would happen if he didn't play. So that led me to think changes on the defensive line might be coming, since that was the subject of the question. For the record, Stephen Bowen is going to get some reps for Ratliff this week.

Next, Parcells mentioned possibly dressing more defensive linemen for the game. Then he finished up by saying they weren't getting a very good pass rush and that he was doing something about that this week.

Those were the clues I went on when I posted this theory:

If Parcells is going to change up something on the defensive line and try to get more pass rush and he is going to dress more defensive linemen, might he be thinking about playing some traditional 4-3 defense? That would be obvious enough for anyone to see at the game and it could create more pass rush because you could get Jason Hatcher in on a more consistent basis and not just in the nickel. I could imagine a front four of Hatcher and Ware on the outside, with Canty (or Spears) and Ferguson at defensive tackle. At linebacker, you keep Bradie James in the middle, move Akin Ayodele outside to Ware's side and let Singleton and Carpenter handle the other side. This way, you get your two best pass rushers in the game and rushing the passer on a regular basis. Coach said in earlier press conference that they had practiced Ayodele as a backup to Ware at various points this season.

Now, Todd Archer made mention of the 4-3 defense in an article today, found here.

And Matt Mosley posted this a couple of hours ago:

We're hearing rumblings about a pretty significant scheme change on defense. Bill has no interest in providing details, but after talking to a couple of players in the locker room today, it wouldn't surprise me to see the return of the 4-3 on Sunday. Look for a defensive line that includes DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Jason Ferguson and Jason Hatcher. The linebackers would be Bob Carpenter, Bradie James and Akin Ayodele.

I'm not sure how much the Cowboys will use the scheme, but it's obvious they are desperately wanting more of a pass rush. The Lions have thrown 69 percent of the time and given up 58 sacks, so generating a pass rush against them shouldn't be too difficult.

Not only did I guess the formation correctly, but I got the players correct too, with Ayodele being moved outside, James in the middle and Carpenter on the other side. Also, it was Ware and Hatcher on the ends with Spears and Ferguson in the middle. (OK, I admit I fudged by saying Singleton/Carpenter and saying Canty/Spears).

So I'm taking this moment to feel full of myself for scooping all the Cowboys beat writers. The moment won't last, because I'm sure I'll post something totally idiotic very soon. But I'm enjoying it for the time being.

P.S. - Is there anything worse than someone who gets something right, then tells you about it over and over? I'm ashamed of myself.

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Nice Job Grizz....

What are your thoughts on the move? I think it's a good idea. We need as many pressure players in there as possible.

by word smith on Dec 28, 2006 6:34 PM CST reply actions

My thoughts

First, I won't lie, I'm a huge fan of the 3-4 defense - when it's played correctly. Parcell's Giants, the Steelers, the Patriots, I loved those defenses. And Dallas was doing a pretty good job with it earlier in the year. But Greg Ellis was a major factor in making it work, and since he's been gone we've been going downhill.

So, I'm all for employing it on a part-time basis to finish out the season. It should allow us to get some of our better pressure players on the field and in position to make the opposing QB uncomfortable. We may be able to get Ware in some one-on-one situations and we might get a better push up the middle to flush out the QB. It will be interesting to watch if they actually use it in a significant way in the Lions game.

Basically, we need to do something to shake this defense out of its late-season slide.

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by Dave Halprin on Dec 28, 2006 7:40 PM CST up reply actions

I think losing Ellis was the main factor

but could there be be more to it? I wonder if our players aren't picking up the nuances as well, if it's because of the lack of performance from Canty and Spears, or if Zim ins't up enough on the 3-4 to teach it to his players...

by dunkman on Dec 29, 2006 10:05 AM CST up reply actions

Based on how well they played the 3-4

earlier in the year, I would think that Ellis was the main factor. Spears and Canty are playing around the same level they have been all year, and Zim is probably teaching the same way all year. The only thing that really changed was Ellis going down.

There could be other factors, maybe the players are wearing down, or offenses have discovered the correct way to attack them. But I'd lay my money on not having two effective pass rushers after the Ellis injury.

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by Dave Halprin on Dec 29, 2006 10:32 AM CST up reply actions

nice

Great analysis and anticipation, Grizz. Not only did you scoop the professional T.O.-poop scoopers, but I'd be surprised if they aren't regular visitors to this site. Good writing is good writing, sanctioned by the Belo Empire or not.

If Parcells makes this move, and it sounds likely, it reminds me of the quarterback and place kicker gambits in that it arrives with no time to spare. Hopefully he'll have the same luck.

The question my friends and I are asking is whether or not Bradie James has the size for middle linebacker in a 4-3. I'm also trying to remember what the Buckeyes played when Carpenter was outside of Hawk there last year.

by AmosM on Dec 28, 2006 6:43 PM CST reply actions

Good call Grizz

by Philosopher on Dec 28, 2006 6:59 PM CST reply actions

Looks like a good move and a good call Grizz

The Panthers play a 4-3. We know how the Tuna likes to copy John Fox.

by Jaxon on Dec 28, 2006 7:31 PM CST reply actions

If he was copying Fox

We'd be packing our bags after Sunday's game instead of heading to the playoffs.

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by Dave Halprin on Dec 28, 2006 7:40 PM CST up reply actions

OK

So your season will last one week longer.

by Jaxon on Dec 28, 2006 9:27 PM CST up reply actions

Unless the Redskins and Bears win

And the Panthers beat the Saints. OK, I'm dreaming.

by Jaxon on Dec 28, 2006 9:29 PM CST up reply actions

nice job Grizz

3-4 can't work effectively without Ellis, Parcells really had no choice but go back to the 4-3.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Dec 28, 2006 9:35 PM CST reply actions

Wow

That's amazing!

What numbers will hit in the Pennsylvania Powerball lottery this weekend? :)

by Rob Zuber on Dec 28, 2006 10:00 PM CST reply actions

U Rock, Grizz

Great analysis and deduction.

I'll still take you and this site over DMN and DFW any day of the week.

I, too, hope this D gets more of a consistent pass rush on a regular basis from here on out...

"WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!" - Ric Flair

by kcbrett5 on Dec 28, 2006 11:50 PM CST reply actions

Kudos were due

before Archer and Mosley copied your thoughts without attribution. However it does give me pause to hear Mosley jump in since he almost always gets it wrong (smile).

We come here for the excellent in-depth analysis that we cannot get anywhere else. Thanks.

by lee3022 on Dec 29, 2006 1:25 AM CST reply actions

I wonder why Spears and not Canty?

I would think Canty would get the nod at DT over Spears, especially since the Lions like to pass much more than run.

But good call Grizz, this move just makes sense. We can't blitz effectively out of the 3-4 and we'll still have the run stuffing Fergie in the middle. I like this move.

by APerfectStar on Dec 29, 2006 2:28 AM CST reply actions