FanPost

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 11

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 80 pass attempts.

After last week's impressive connections with Terrell Owens, Romo's value finally separated from Favre.  For the last three weeks, their values had been virtually identical.  Speaking of separation, Tom Brady continues to pull away from the second highest-rated QB.  If he maintains this pace for the remainder of the year, he'll surpass Peyton Manning's 2004 season (0.73) as the best season in my database.  And speaking of Manning, we're discovering that as great a quarterback as he is, he's dependent on his teammates around him.  Injuries to the offensive line and receivers have definitely limited his effectiveness the last couple of weeks.  And despite the hand-wringing over what Campbell did to our defense last week, his value hardly moved.  He piled up a ton of yards, only threw one pick and was only sacked once; but needed close to 60 attempts to get there.  His yards per attempt weren't particularly good last week, and that's the engine that drives the success of a passing game.

Bring on the Jets.  Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

I've been using a passing offense metric for many years now to gauge how well a QB is doing.  Inspired by baseball SABRmetrician Bill James, I performed linear regressions of NFL statistics and concluded from a big picture point of view, only two statistics mattered:  Yards gained from scrimmage, and turnovers.  The best fit to matching points scored came when assuming the following coefficients:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Simply put, teams that score points rack up yardage and don't commit turnovers.  Note how powerful turnovers are:  A team can, for example, gain 55 yards of offense, but if they turn it over the next play, they actually ended up hurting their team.

With that in mind, I created the points per pass metric, which calculates the effectiveness of quarterbacks.  The above two coefficients are used to determine, on average, how many points a quarterback (and his offensive teammates, since everyone else contributes to his success or failure) creates with each passing attempt.  It takes the simple yards per attempt metric we're all familiar with, adjusts it for sacks, and further adjusts it for turnovers.  One interception equates to minus six points; one fumble equates to minus three points.  I treat fumbles as half a turnover, since there's essentially a 50/50 chance of recovering or losing a fumble.  The results will probably be unsurprising for the most part, but sometimes they can appear odd.  One of the things that may cause these oddities are fumbles.  Most people, when looking over a QB's stat line, don't think about fumbles; they just look at yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions, and maybe sacks.  But fumbles are very important, since they are essentially half a turnover.

Brady, NE                                        0.76
Garrard, Jax                                    0.64
Garcia, TB                                       0.61
Romo, Dal                                       0.57
Favre, GB                                        0.55
Hasselbeck, Sea                             0.52
Anderson, Cle                                 0.51
Schaub, Hou                                   0.47
Manning, Ind                                  0.46
McNabb, Phi                                    0.46
Harrington, Atl                                0.46
Cutler, Den                                     0.45
Palmer, Cin                                     0.44
Roethlisberger, Pit                          0.44
Warner, Ari                                     0.43
Brees, NO                                       0.39
Kitna, Det                                       0.38
Campbell, Was                               0.37
Losman, Buf                                   0.36
Pennington, NYJ                             0.36
Manning, NYG                                 0.35
Leinart, Ari                                      0.33
Boller, Bal                                       0.33
Testaverde, Car                              0.32
Bulger, StL                                      0.32
Green, Mia                                      0.31
Lemon, Mia                                     0.31
Rivers, SD                                       0.30
Edwards, Buf                                  0.30
Huard, KC                                       0.30
Griese, Chi                                      0.27
Culpepper, Oak                              0.26
Jackson, Min                                   0.25
McNair, Bal                                      0.25
Clements, NYJ                                 0.25
Carr, Car                                        0.21
Grossman, Chi                                0.19
Young, Ten                                     0.18
Smith, SF                                        0.18
Dilfer, SF                                        -0.02
McCown, Oak                                -0.08

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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