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Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 14

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 140 pass attempts.

Star-divide

Romo and Favre again switched positions this week, but are still interchangeable.  Peyton Manning's game against Jacksonville pushed him all the way up to sixth place, and Warner's five interceptions caused his his high value early in the season to tumble.

One of the things I'd like to do, if I had the time, is check the performance of QBs at certain venues.  One of the first I would look into would be Dallas QBs in Detroit.  I've called it our Temple of Doom, with bizarre losses there ever since the Lions moved indoors in 1976.  We've lost games there in 1981, 1985, 1987, 2001 and 2002 when we had significantly better teams than Detroit; and were blown out there twice in 1991 (including the divisional playoffs) when our record was about as good theirs'.  Before Sunday, we had won there three times since 1976, and all three were blowouts, with margins of victory of 24, 34 and 31 points.  Before Sunday, our road games against Detroit followed one of two distinct paths.  Either we jumped on the Lions with a couple of early scores, got them and the crowd discouraged, and cruised to an easy victory; or, as was usually the case, they won a tense nail-biter (the two 1991 games are in class by themselves, as the we were almost as good as them...so of course Detroit blew us out both times).  In particular, I recall time and again how crowd noise would lead to false starts...and to avoid the penalties, our offensive line was slow to get off the snap, which gave the Lions a strong pass rush...with sacks, fumbles and interceptions not far behind.  Yesterday was different.  Our defense fell to pieces, as it often does there, but the offense rallied and was able to largely avoid turnovers.

I have no idea why the Lions play like world beaters against us so often, but I've seen it so often that Sunday's game was almost expected.  The only thing that surprised me was the outcome, as we finally won a close one there, and now actually have a two game winning streak there.  Is the Curse of the Temple broken forever?  Let's hope so; nothing has been more frustrating for me over the years than to watch an inferior Detroit team beat us time after time.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

I've been using a passing offense metric for many years now to gauge how well a QB is doing.  Inspired by baseball SABRmetrician Bill James, I performed linear regressions of NFL statistics and concluded from a big picture point of view, only two statistics mattered:  Yards gained from scrimmage, and turnovers.  The best fit to matching points scored came when assuming the following coefficients:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Simply put, teams that score points rack up yardage and don't commit turnovers.  Note how powerful turnovers are:  A team can, for example, gain 55 yards of offense, but if they turn it over the next play, they actually ended up hurting their team.

With that in mind, I created the points per pass metric, which calculates the effectiveness of quarterbacks.  The above two coefficients are used to determine, on average, how many points a quarterback (and his offensive teammates, since everyone else contributes to his success or failure) creates with each passing attempt.  It takes the simple yards per attempt metric we're all familiar with, adjusts it for sacks, and further adjusts it for turnovers.  One interception equates to minus six points; one fumble equates to minus three points.  I treat fumbles as half a turnover, since there's essentially a 50/50 chance of recovering or losing a fumble.  The results will probably be unsurprising for the most part, but sometimes they can appear odd.  One of the things that may cause these oddities are fumbles.  Most people, when looking over a QB's stat line, don't think about fumbles; they just look at yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions, and maybe sacks.  But fumbles are very important, since they are essentially half a turnover.

Brady, NE                                        0.72
Garrard, Jax                                    0.64
Garcia, TB                                       0.60
Favre, GB                                        0.56
Romo, Dal                                       0.55
Manning, Ind                                   0.52
Schaub, Hou                                   0.51
Hasselbeck, Sea                             0.49
Anderson, Cle                                 0.49
Cutler, Den                                     0.47
McNabb, Phi                                    0.46
Brees, NO                                       0.44
Palmer, Cin                                     0.43
Edwards, Buf                                  0.41
Harrington, Atl                                0.41
Roethlisberger, Pit                         0.40
Kitna, Det                                       0.38
Warner, Ari                                     0.37
Jackson, Min                                   0.37
Pennington, NYJ                              0.36
Campbell, Was                               0.35
Rivers, SD                                       0.32
Manning, NYG                                 0.31
Losman, Buf                                   0.31
Green, Mia                                      0.31
Culpepper, Oak                              0.30
Bulger, StL                                      0.29
Griese, Chi                                      0.28
Clements, NYJ                                0.28
Boller, Bal                                       0.27
Huard, KC                                       0.26
McNair, Bal                                      0.25
Testaverde, Car                              0.25
Grossman, Chi                                0.25
Lemon, Mia                                     0.24
Young, Ten                                     0.22
Smith, SF                                        0.18
Frerotte, StL                                   0.10
Dilfer, SF                                         0.01
McCown, Oak                                 0.00

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments

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Good stuff

as always. Not many people are talking about David Garrard but they should be. With only 1 INT on the season he has the 3rd best passer rating (using the NFL system). He does not get as many opportunities at Jacksonville with an outstanding defense and a good running game. But he is playing good football. This is shown in your passer rating at #2 and it is no fluke.

Eli Manning and Rivers appear interchangeable as well and both are just-a-guy Qbs.

by lee3022 on Dec 11, 2007 10:46 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Garrard is a very underrated qb, however

the problem I have with him is that he doesn't make enough big plays. Now that might have something to do with the fact they are a running team and have less than exposive WRs, but the bottom line in this league, you have to produce big plays in the passing game to be a championship caliber team and qb.

This isn't your father's NFL anymore where you can win with a great running game, defense and a qb who is effecient. Doesn't work anymore. Thats why Pats, Cowboys, Colts and Packers are the best teams, their qbs make big plays.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Dec 12, 2007 7:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably true

I would say that I think Garrard has the ability to make plays, he just doesn't have the personnel and that's not his role.  Jacksonville is an unquestionably conservative, smash-mouth team.  I have a feeling that the #1 objective for Garrard is to not turn it over.  He deserves recognition for the job he is doing this season, and I have to give it to Del Rio for being absolutely right in keeping him over Leftwich.  I didn't see his talents before this year, but I sure do now.  They are one game-breaking WR away from having an explosive offense...if only they would learn how to pick WRs correctly (Matt Jones???).

by grapejoos on Dec 12, 2007 11:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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