Past Dallas Drafts Poor

In early April, Fred Jones of thehuddlereport.com performed an analysis of the 7 drafts from 2000 – 2006 for all 32 NFL teams.

The Cowboys didn’t fair well.  

The Cowboys have 20 players drafted during that time period still on the roster (37.0%; ranks 20th of the 32 teams).  There are an additional 11 players with other teams (20.4%; ranks 30th of the 32 teams).  There are 23 players drafted that are no longer in the NFL (42.6%; tied for WORST in the NFL).

In all fairness to the current scouting staff, 5 of the 7 drafts in this analysis were under scouting director Larry Lacewell.  The 2005 and 2006 drafts have been led by scouting director Jeff Ireland.

I went back and looked at the last two drafts.  Of the 16 players drafted in the last two years, 12 are on the current roster (75%; this includes Montavious Stanley, who was cut and re-signed).  There are 2 players on other teams (12.5%, Rob Petitti and Skyler Green).  There are 2 players no longer in the NFL (12.5%; Justin Beriault and EJ Whitley).

Drafting poorly results in (1) spending large amounts of Free Agent bucks to plug holes (2) eventually CAP HELL, and (3) massive cuts and a 5 year rebuilding plan (that never ends if you don’t draft well).

I wonder if NFL owners have done a cost-benefit analysis on increasing the size of their scouting staffs and background investigation services to the point were the team could be successful on 100% of its picks in rounds 1-4, and at least 50% for rounds 5-7.  In the long run, you save Mega-dollars not having to sign Free Agents.

Maybe thats not really the problem?  How often do you hear about a prospects "POTENTIAL" or "UPSIDE", yet if a team focused on evaluating past production, those same prospects may not grade so high.  Its nice for a prospect to have upside, but ONLY if their production warrants their high grade.  I think the Cowboys have often become so enamored with a prospects potential, they overlook a lack of production (or lack of production over a long period, ie "one year wonders").

Another interesting perspective discussed on NFL Network recently is a scouting staff will spend 3 or 4 years evaluating the prospects.  A coach or owner will see a highlight tape of player X and override the scouting staffs assessment that player Y is the best prospect.  A similar thing happens when a prospect has an incredible pro day or combine performance.  The prospects "resume" of game film should always be the primary analysis tool.  Workout data should only come in to play when you have otherwise equal grades on two prospects. The better workout should then be used to grade one above the other.

IMO, the key to sustained success in todays NFL is to consistently restock your roster via the draft and only occationally fill a hole with a UFA.  In fact the NFL rewards that philosophy.

The way the NFL compensatory draft pick system works, if you loose players to Free Agency, and don’t sign UFAs (or sign UFAs of "lower value"), then the league "compensates" you with additional draft picks.  So.....if you draft well, don’t need to sign UFAs, occasionally choose not to re-sign your own (because two years ago you drafted a backup just as good) and another team signs them, then the NFL rewards you for drafting well by giving you additional draft picks.  Think about that.

Lets hope this draft tops the 2005 class (the best Cowboys draft in a long time).