Did we get fleeced?
by Leon on Oct 16, 2008 11:10 AM CDT
19 comments
Fans in Detroit and most sports writers seem to feel like Detroit got the better of the Roy Williams trade. General consensus among these types seems to be that three draft picks is too steep of a price to pay. I don't know if it's been done elsewhere, but this got me thinking about the occasionally vaunted draft trade value chart and I used that to analyze the value of the trade.
Roy Williams was the seventh selection in the 2004 draft, and Detroit selected him by trading with Cleveland to move up in the first round. The seventh overall selection, via the aforementioned draft value chart is worth 1500 points. Although Millen gave additional picks (and hence a greater point value) to move into the position to draft Williams, a number seven overall pick is a number seven overall pick.
We sent Detroit our 2009 first, third, and sixth rounders. In addition, we get a seventh in 2010. Assuming we draft at 22 in this draft (God forbid), the picks we send to Detroit are worth 780, 160, and 18.6 points respectively. The total value of those picks is 958.6 points, roughly the point value of the #17 overall pick. If we advance in the playoffs, those picks are worth less; while if we slide, those picks are worth more. We'd have to slide to the 15th pick in the draft in order to "break even", if we go by this draft chart and value Roy as the #7 pick.
So what is that lucky #7 pick really worth? The seventh overall pick in the drafts immediately before and after Roy was drafted were Troy Williamson and Byron Leftwich. Those are busts, dude; and the whole draft thing is a crap shoot.
We don't need to play dice with our roster. We are loading up for a playoff run, so a developed, talented WR is more valuable to us; and Detroit is rebuilding, so of course draft picks are worth more to them. At the trade deadline players are always worth more than picks; and at the draft, picks are always worth more than players. However, the fact is that any player we could have drafted with our 2009 first round pick would have trouble getting on the field with the squad we have, and we still have draft picks in every successive round of the 2009 draft to build our depth.
Football is a violent, chaotic sport, and anything can happen. I don't know if Roy is worth the seventh overall pick or the seventeenth, but I do believe he's the right player for us right now. I do know that he's been to a Pro Bowl and led the conference in receiving. He's a ready fit, having developed into a polished veteran receiver. I'd say the odds of him flourishing in Dallas, winning games, and perhaps helping the team advance are very good. I'm going to dodge the conventional wisdom on this one and call this acquisition a solid win.
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Yes, I think we win even if we just look at it from a points value.
But you also have to consider that RWII is worth more than his original Draft Day value because he is now a pro bowler, a proven player and has four years of experience under his belt. He also makes Witten, TO, Barber and Felix better by potentially taking away an extra safety that might otherwise be covering one of them. Yes, Dallas basically only traded for a half year of his services up front, but the team gained the right to be the sole negotiator for a new contract. Given that he was having a down year so far and that he wanted to come back home, I’d say Jerry pretty much knew he was getting a player for the long haul. To me, all of the above is worth what we gave up and more. If the offense takes off like they hope it will and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl, I don’t think there is anyone here who wouldn’t give up those picks for that scenario.
It's all a matter of perspective
It’s a win for Detroit because they got draft picks they desperately needed to up grade the talent of there team for the future, and if used wisely they can do just that. It’s a win for Dallas because they got thier Future #1 reciever and a complament to T.O. for the next couple years. ( wether T.O. will remain the #1 remains to be seen next year). But, this also allows for further growth of Austin Miles which the non moves involving him have led some to believe he may be the future #2.
The truth of it will only be evidenced by the fruits that are beared by the Draft picks and the production.
I agree
This deal was a win for both sides. Dallas is ready to win now, Detroit needs to rebuild. Draft picks are uncertain in general, and especially for WRs. Even a good WR often takes 2-3 years to really start contributing, and it is a big unknown whether even a WR in round 1 will be a bust. RW2 is a known value right now and going forward. Plus Jerry has so many draft picks stashed away he can still trade up into the first round if there’s someone else there they really want. But there is probably less risk going after other positions than WR high in the draft, so now that we have the WR position set, we can target other needs.
I think a lot of folks have tried to interpret this as a desperate move by Jerry given all the other bad news, but I just don’t see that. As Wade and Jerry have said, they have been scouting and discussing RW2 for a long time, evaluation how he could fit for the team. So this wasn’t just a rash decision. It was carefully considered for a long time and the timing just happened to coincide with all the other news, conveniently in terms of changing the news cycle and giving a needed boost to team morale.
Also, one could argue that what we really needed was another corner with Pac likely gone now, but the strategy of this seems to be to give the offense the big missing piece it needs to put up so many points that it can compensate for unexpected weakness in the secondary.
whose to say that RW is really a #7 overall pick?
Because he certainly hasn’t produced like an overall #7 pick. I know most people use the excuse that he played for the stinky Lions, but I don’t buy that argument because there are a lot of players who produce with stinky teams, Andre Johnson comes to mind.
I think if the 2004 draft were held over again, RW would be 1st rd pick, but not a high 1st rd pick and not even close to the overall #7 pick.
In Romo we Trust
By the number's
Andre doesn’t look too much better. Andre has played 15 more games, has more yards and receptions; however, Roy has 2 more TD’s and avergages1.5 yards more per reception.
by WestTxHornFan on Oct 16, 2008 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes sir
Roy Williams/RW2 is the only player drafted with 7th overall selection from 2000-2006 to go to the Pro-Bowl..
Pro-Bowl WR is well worth the picks..
"If you see me up in the mountains with a lion, I ain't lyin
don't help me, help the mountain lion"
I feel that
gettting a veteran WR to help our thinning out at that position, keeping him away from the iggles, and having a character player like Dan Campbell speak well of RWII is a good sign that this aquisition is worth what JJ gave up.
Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!
BORROW?
Barber, Owens, Romo, Roy, Offensive Line, Witten
by Baked Potato Soup on Oct 16, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions
nice write up LEON...I hope putting it in that perspective helps the pessimist get over it...
We pretty much traded up from the 25th spot or so in next years draft, to like the 18th pick to grab a polished veteran WR….IF this trade was done in this past draft, or in next years draft….NOBODY would be bitching…
A true diehard Cowboys fan since 1975.
"If you don’t take him off the field as a coach, he will just about die out there," Jerry Jones said. "That impacted my decision. It’s a Michael Irvin-type work ethic. That’s what we are talking about with Felix Jones."
- Owner/G.M of the Dallas Cowboys , Jerry Jones
Look at it this way...
If we had not made the trade, drafted a receiver next year, and that number one pick workded out like Ware, then the trade was BAD. If the number one pick produced like Carpenter, then the trade is GOOD. Same with the third round pick. If it works out like Witten, then its bad. If the pick produces like the lineman from BC that we drafted in the 3rd and is no longer on the team, then the trade is good.
MWB
Sheesh!
After this week, the trade is looking better and better for Detroit all the time…
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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