A Thin Line

This was a rough day to be a Cowboys fan, and it's understandable that people need to blow off some steam, but I'm here to suggest that this team is not terrible, there do not need to be wholesale firings and the season is not over yet. A lot of people like to use the fact that this team finished 13-3 last season as a predictor for future success, but the fact of the matter is that in today's NFL, the difference between 13-3 and 9-7 comes down to this: 4 or 5 key injuries and 4 or 5 key plays. That's it. That's the difference between a great year and a bad year. Consider the following:

KEY INJURIES

On the injury front, the Cowboys managed to stay reasonably healthy last year. Glenn and Ferguson missed the year, Owens sprained his ankle, Gurode's knee gave him some problems, Cricket got Hurt, and Pat Watkins was a little dinged up, but overall, this was a relatively healthy team in 2007. On December 18, 2007, Todd Archer wrote in the DMN, "The Cowboys have been relatively healthy all season with two players on injured reserve (Jason Ferguson and Deon Anderson)." Contrast that with a 2008 season that has seen key players in all phases of the game out of the lineup including Tony Romo, Terence Newman, Kyle Kosier,  Felix Jones, Pat Watkins, Adam Jones, Roy Williams, Matt McBriar, Miles Austin, Sam Hurd, Deon Anderson, Anthony Spencer, Kevin Burnett, and now Bradie James. Having all that talent on the sidelines makes a big difference in a season.

KEY PLAYS

Few other sports have outcomes that hinge on a few key plays like football. We consider it as gospel that this was a "13-3 team" last year, thereby entitleing them to more of the same this year, but when you stop and think about it, how far was this team from 9-7 last year? Here are a few key moments that could have gone the other way:

Week 5, Buffalo: What if Tony Curtis doesn't recover the onside kick that gave the team a chance at a miraculous 25-24 victory? The Cowboys are a 12-4 team.

Week 7, Minnesota: What if Pat Watkins doesn't return a blocked kick 68 yards for a touchdown, turning the tide of the game against the Vikings? The Cowboys are an 11-5 team.

Week 11, Washington: What if Terence Newman doesn't intercept Jason Campbell with less than two minutes left and the Redskins go on to score the winning touchdown? The Cowboys are a 10-6 team.

Week 14, Detroit: What if Jason Witten doesn't make the catch that gave the Cowboys an improbable, final-second 28-27 win over the Lions? The Cowboys are  a 9-7 team.

It's that close, and if your injury situation prevents you from making the key plays that determine the outcome of games, you're going to have a long year. Now, I don't know if the Cowboys will be able to recover and make the playoffs this year, but I certainly think it's possible. The team could get healthier as the season goes on, get on a roll and finish 11-5 or 10-6. They could also continue to implode and finish 5-11, but it won't mean they suck. It's just that close in the NFL these days. Let's hope for the best!