Cowboys @ Redskins Preview
The rematch is upon us. Will the Cowboys regain their equilibrium? Will the Redskins get the sweep? Will the earth swallow up Wade Phillips if the Cowboys lose? Here is an abbreviated list of things to watch tonight.
When the Redskins Have the Ball
The Cowboys dominated the first fifteen minutes in the first game, sacking Jason Campbell twice and keeping the Redskins on their side of the field. The game turned in the second quarter when Washington discovered that Terence Newman could not run. Santana Moss beat him short. James Thrash beat him for a touchdown on a simple out from motion, and then Moss got behind him twice to set up ten more Redskins points.
The Cowboys stayed with Newman but had to back both safeties off the ball, which opened up the Washington running game. Add some awful tackling by the Dallas safeties and we saw a last 20 minutes dominated by Washington's running game.
Key Players
-- Jay Ratliff and Tank Johnson: the Cowboys run defense depends on the nose tackles and backside ends to make plays, especially when it runs its base sets. Washington used a lot of three receiver sets to pull a linebacker or safey into space and then ran stretch plays and tosses to the strong side behind Chris Cooley.
When Jay Ratliff was able to get free and penetrate plays blew up. When he was engaged, or just missed tackles, Clinton Portis broke free for big gains.
He's going to need another big game. He's also going to need help from Johnson, who has been erratic. Johnson's best game of the season came against Tampa Bay. Not surprisingly, it was Dallas' best defensive game the last month. The Cowboys will also be helped if the ends can slip their blocks and crash from the backside. They were terrible at this in week four and Portis found huge cutback lanes when Chris Canty and Jason Hatcher were buried.
-- Terence Newman: He was a sieve first time around. If he's healthy the Cowboys can play a safety up to slow the running game down. Forcing Campbell to hold the ball an extra count will be important because
-- Anthony Spencer: the Cowboys rush pressured Campbell all game. They got to him early and just missed several sacks later in the game. He was able to beat the pressure because he's crafty and because he kept finding Moss wide open at the last moment. Spencer finally played a healthy game against New York and was very disruptive. He's had the bye to give his injured knee more time to heal. A bigger rush from him will help Demarcus Ware.
When Dallas Has the Ball
Key Players
Kyle Kosier: In the Thursday chat, KC Joyner noted that when it comes to o-line performance, a line with five average guys will do better than one with two or three outstanding players and one stiff.
Kosier is a steady player. His replacement, Cory Proctor, has been a major disappointment. He was overwhelmed in the first Washington game. Dallas couldn't run draws and traps early because he was pushed into the backfield and he was a major liability in the second half because Redskins rushers kept pushing him into the pocket. This prevented Tony Romo from stepping up on several key throws to open receivers.
With Kosier back the Cowboys should be able to give Romo a more stable pocket. They should also gain some balance in their run attack. They've been very right handed this year, while they were a more left handed team last year.
Terrell Owens: Seems odd to to place him on a key players list but Owens had a horrible game in the last Redskins match. He dropped passes. He mistimed jumps. He cut off routes and committed more than his fair share of mistakes. Washington pressed him and the Redskins' DBs mugged him repeatedly. He didn't get the flags he was looking for and seemed to lose focus.
Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton: Washington's game plan was to press short and rotate safey help over the top to the corner playing Owens, while bracketing Jason Witten with a linebacker.
It took Jason Garrett a while to find the soft areas in the Redskins coverage. Nearly all of Dallas big plays came to Austin and Crayton running short and intermediate routes in the middle of the field.
Overall
Time and more losses have seemingly increased the Redskins' margin in that game. The final was 26-24 and the margin was due to slow adjustments by the Dallas staff and poor execution by the Cowboys offense. Romo missed several open receiver and the receivers in turn dropped several catchable balls.
That said, Romo still made some magical plays, scrambing free and finding targets.
Look for Dallas to play an inside-out passing game if Washington tries the same pressure packages they did in game one. Look for Roy Williams and Miles Austin to press deep outside to create more space in the middle of the field. Look for Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett to run more deep seams up the hashes.
Look for Dallas to come out in three wide and to play T.O. in the slot. He was deadly on Dallas' 3rd quarter TD drive running shallow crosses, which got him free from short and deep help.
When Owens is not running in the middle, look for Crayton and Austin to take their turns running the same patterns here.
Prediction: Dallas is 10-1 in prime time behind Romo. The pressure is on, the lights will be bright and Romo will be in his comfort zone. Dallas has closed its two biggest holes, at LCB, where a healthy Newman is replacing a staggering one and at left guard, where Proctors game kept deterioriaing with every passing week.
I look for a tight game early. The key for Dallas will be staying even with Washington or getting a lead. The Redskins didn't try pounding Portis until they had the ball with a lead early in the 4th. He won't be here tonight. Ladell Betts will be. He's good, but he lacks Portis' spark.
The Redskins have been a better road team than a home team. They've lost to the Rams at home and Pittsburgh drilled them there two weeks ago. They barely escaped the Browns 14-11 and had to sweat out tough wins over New Orleans and Arizona.
Nothing comes easy for them there. I don't think it will come easy this time either. Get your popcorn ready. Dallas wins the overwhelming majority of their prime time games but they're almost all shootouts. I look for a lot of points but a favorable outcome.
Dallas 28 Washington 24
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19 comments
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Comments
I dig it. It's go time!
Last game shouldn’t have been close if we would have taken care of ourselves. We shoulda hung 40 on TB and the Giants tried over and over to give us the game back.
Our biggest opponent this year has been the Cowboys on Sunday. No more excuses. Time to get it right, if ever we will.
38-17 Good guys in a statement of a Sunday Night. A little biased? You damn right!
by KaceOFbass on Nov 16, 2008 1:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Top Notch
Raf my man….what a pleasure it is to read a preview from the best there is!
"No room for toe dippers....."
by Lowdaddy on Nov 16, 2008 1:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone know
how well Romo has been able to grip and throw the ball? That might be the biggest key
by 082288 on Nov 16, 2008 2:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
In direct relation to that question, if whatever alleged ailments that have caused Flozell to play like a cheap fleabag Motel are healed, maybe he decide to actually earn his paycheck and shut down Jason Taylor similar to the way he did last year. After all, Zach’s former bro-in-law is one of the best in the business at stripping the ball.
by MadMick on Nov 16, 2008 2:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Romo's throwing...
… should be as crisp as it was at the beginning of the year. The whole time he was injured, he was still making all the throws. He would just start the snap/play with the ball already in his hand so he didn’t have to take a pouding on the injury from the center snapping the ball.
by commoncents on Nov 16, 2008 10:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
31-14
Although I’ll probably be wrong as I all too often am. As it turns out, them ole ‘Skins aren’t nearly as dreadful as they were opening night against the Giants……….
On the other hand, I don’t really think they’re as good as the run they went in the next month following that opening night stinker would indicate either. This is a team that has lost to the Rams (with their full compliment of talent as opposed to being lead by a geriatric QB whose throwing arm might as well have been amputated) and won an ugly 14-11 mess over the mighty Cleveland Browns. They even needed a special teams TD to be 8 points better than the lowly Lions. I wouldn’t necessarily call Zorn’s offensive philosophy “efficient” as much as I would call it “safe.”
If this Roy Williams is the real McCoy I don’t see how he wouldn’t be able to maximize his opportunities the way Jason Witten has been able to all year (well, with Romo in the line-up) because of all the attention T.O. demands. While the Giants certainly have a legitimate shot of repeating because of their superiority in the trenches, I’m still not really sold on the Eagles or ’Skins. If this team has any cajones at all, they should be able to edge out those teams for 2nd place in the division.
Given that Clinton Portis is either a no-go and in extremely gimpy condition if he does go; if the Cowboys still can’t win with those favorable circumstances I’m afraid it’s confirmed once and for all that they have no soul. How shameful would it be to get run on by that gap toothed contract year He-Man punk Shaun Alexander?
by MadMick on Nov 16, 2008 2:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I see us taking an early lead and not giving them a chance like when we were at Philly last year.
by nicholas.rodriguez on Nov 16, 2008 3:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The big if...
in your post is the cojones part…..do we hav ethem? have we shown this season that we have them? I don’t think so.
by ManTab on Nov 16, 2008 8:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Damn, I wish I hadn't read this...
Now, the ultimate pesimist (me) who was already expecting a loss and getting ready to give up on the season and move on……..has a hope. I wish I could share the enthusiasm but I just can’t see this deffense stopping anybody and penalties will kill us again.
by ManTab on Nov 16, 2008 8:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Is it bye-bye following the bye?
I think it’s safe to say that this is a pivotal game. The ’Boys either put up or shut up. I for one see them getting on a serious roll should they win this game (even a squeaker). On the other hand, the psyche of this team seems so fragile that a loss might tank the rest of the season. My key to the game is TO/RW2 opening the middle for JW and PC. Crayton is a terrific 3 and should rampage the Skins tonight . Was it me or did this bye period seem more like a month than two weeks….
by Keys80 on Nov 16, 2008 9:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm actually going to be at the game with my sons.
I really, really hope you’re right. Great analysis as always, Raf. I tried making many of these points – like the line being puahwd back into the QB and closing up passing lanes. If only I had said it as well.
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
by dunkman on Nov 16, 2008 9:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Fingers crossed
This game will go as the offensive and defensive lines go.
The Cowboys will have to earn my confidence back before I can believe they’ll win.
by Urinal Mint on Nov 16, 2008 9:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
As the Lines go
is correct. Not the skill players. Kosier’s been out, Spencer’s never proven much of a long haul, and the Skins dominated us physically last time. Moss burning Newman was bad, but they literally beat us up last game. That will need to change, and I’m not sure our team can do be more physical.
Also, Weather will be a factor, it will be cold and there will be some winds. Romo may have a tough time with that, with any remaining pain being amplified, on top of being out so long. Skins 24-13.
And talk about earning confidence, Mr. TO has lost all of mine. He disappears in big games, has disappeared when we’ve really needed him the last few weeks, and I don’t think we’ll see much from him the rest of this year.
by Realist Larry on Nov 16, 2008 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The return of the Jedi
will be the difference and the Cowboys will make a statement….that they are back.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Nov 16, 2008 9:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Very Good Analysis
I’ve believed for some time we would win this game. We haven’t won in DC since 2004, but then again, we have one of the best records in the league coming off a bye, we’re playing on prime time and the Redskins have been struggling since they beat the Eagles a month ago.
Of course, we get Romo, Kosier and Newman back, and Portis will be limited, at best.. I don’t think Moss will have as big a day this time around.
I’m normally very cautious, but I will go with a 24-16 Dallas win.
Don’t prove me wrong guys, if we lose this one, the season gets very dicey.
by kindablue on Nov 16, 2008 10:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
i've predicted a cowboy victory in every game this season...
…and look how that’s turned out!
let’s see: playing on the road, against a team that beat them in dallas, romo’s hand still not completely well, wade likes henry in the secondary more than trusting the rooks… doesn’t look too good. maybe that’ll mean a big cowboys win!
by g8tgod on Nov 16, 2008 11:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Excellent analysis Rafael....
….and a belated welcome to BTB.
Come and whisper in my ear, give us dirty laundry - ESPN
by Nelson... on Nov 16, 2008 12:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
we’re over estimating the redskins;
Cowboys, 43-7
by AustonianAggie on Nov 16, 2008 5:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Reserved Hope
Another great analysis Raf. I want to believe that the Cowboys finally understand that the NFL is not just going to give them the Super Bowl Trophy. I’ll feel a lot better after the 1st Qtr and I see some real heart from my Cowboys.
by staubachfan on Nov 16, 2008 7:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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