Let's Talk Numbers: How much better are the Niners with Shaun Hill?
This week the San Francisco 49ers head to Texas Stadium in a game that a few weeks ago looked like a sure win on the schedule. Now, the Niners have a new head coach in Mike Singletary that has the team playing with confidence following a big win over the St. Louis Rams. The biggest difference in this team is how the offense has played behind Shaun Hill after J.T. O'Sullivan was benched late in the first half in Singletary's first game as coach. A team that turning over the ball at an incredible rate has learned to protect the ball and scored 35 first half points last week.
But just how much better are they? Just how much better has the offense performed with Shaun Hill and is their defense good enough to subdue the Dallas Cowboys offense? What are the big difference makers in the game? All of these questions we will attempt to answer in this week's edition of Let's Talk Numbers.
Follow the jump for a stats analysis that that will make KC Joyner grin. Maybe.

San Francisco pass offense vs. Dallas pass defense
The 49ers don't put up big numbers in the passing game, but things have subtly changed for the better now that Shaun Hill has stepped under center.
| Rank | Pct. | Yds/g | Avg. | TD/G | INT/G | Sacks/G | Rating | TOP | |
| S.F. w/ O'Sullivan | 19th | 58.4 | 205.9 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1.38 | 4.0 | 73.6 | 29:00 |
| S.F. w/ Hill | 17th | 59.0 | 201.0 | 7.3 | 1.66 | 0.66 | 1.33 | 91.6 | 30:14 |
| Dallas pass defense | 7th | 62.2 | 188.0 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.90 | 88.9 |
There is an obvious difference with Shaun Hill in two areas: sacks and turnovers. From what I have seen in my limited footage Hill he almost like a Tony Romo lite; he feels the pressure and moves in the pocket effectively and he is somewhat accurate throwing on the run. He also doesn't take a whole lot of chances downfield and just isn't that explosive. He will give you a conservative, no risk game that relies on ball control and the running game to open things up.
So how did the Niners explode for 35 first half points last game? I'm not totally content with the answer being that they played the Rams, after all the Cowboys didn't do very well against them. So I decided to take a look at each of the 49ers drives last game, between the first half and the second half.
First Half:
| Start | Plays | Yards | TOP | Result |
| Own 38 | 2 | 41 | 0:44 | Fumble |
| STL 34 | 5 | 34 | 1:54 | TD |
| Own 31 | 5 | 69 | 2:48 | TD |
| STL 16 | 4 | 16 | 2:01 | TD |
| Own 40 | 7 | 60 | 3:14 | TD |
| Own 44 | 7 | 56 | 1:15 | TD |
Second Half:
| Start | Plays | Yards | TOP | Result |
| Own 32 | 5 | 13 | 3:23 | Punt |
| Own 18 | 5 | 4 | 2:41 | Punt |
| Own 25 | 3 | 1 | 1:18 | Punt |
| Own 9 | 3 | 2 | 1:31 | Punt |
| Own 4 | 6 | 45 | 4:05 | Fumble |
| Own 7 | 3 | 4 | 1:25 | Punt |
A quick note: the 49ers fourth drive in the second half started with three straight false start penalties on first down. Yikes.
In breaking down what happened that allowed for such a burst in scoring the first thing that stands out is that San Francisco took every advantage of excellent field position in the first half. Every time their defense forced a turnover or they got a good return in the kicking game the offense made the Rams pay, and they did it fast. Their longest possession in the entire game was just over three minutes long.
The lack of offense in the second half is puzzling. It may be due to the fact that they had a big lead and stopped pressing as hard but you never want to let up against any NFL team, especially one with Marc Bulger. The Niners didn't enjoy the field position they did in the first half and were constantly backed up against their own end zone, and even with Frank Gore weren't able to dig themselves out. The rams brought more pressure in the second half and when Hill did drop back to pass wasn't able to replicate his first half magic.
Bottom line: The Cowboys defense has minimized the big play this season and despite what it may seem on a game to game basis they do have a top ten pass defense. The biggest difference that Shaun Hill brings is an ability to protect the ball and not turn it over at inopportune times, which doesn't bode well for a Cowboys defense that has not forced many turnovers this year. However, the defense has started to become more disruptive as of late and if the 49ers find themselves behind and forced to throw, Shaun Hill's lack of explosiveness can be exploited if he pressed. The Niners' offensive line isn't the greatest but are playing better in front of Shaun Hill; the Cowboys should still be able to apply some decent pressure and force Hill out of his comfort level.
Dallas pass offense vs. San Francisco pass defense
This will be Tony Romo's second game back from injury and it was evident that he became much more comfortable last week as the game progressed. Wade Phillips has reported that Romo is throwing much better than last week with the splint on his hand and Romo should be pretty close to his old self this weekend against the 49ers. This will also be his second game throwing to Roy Williams and this could be a breakout game for the offense.
| Rank | Pct | Yds/G | Avg | Td/G | INT/G | Sacks/G | Rating | |
| Dallas pass offense | 10th | 61.2 | 226.3 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 85.6 |
| San Fran pass defense | 25th | 61.8 | 234.9 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 84.9 |
The San Francisco pass defense is the biggest weakness of the team. They do not generate much of a pass rush and are allowing an alarming seven yards per pass attempt, compared to 6.4 yards per attempt the Cowboys defense allows. The Niners have a tough time keeping recievers in front of them and are prone to the big play, giving up eight passing plays over forty yards this season. They have a very good cornerback in Nate Clements but as Cowboys fans we have seen what happens to pass coverage when their is no pressure on the cornerback.
Bottom line: If the Dallas Cowboys offensive continues to play at the level they did against the Redskins, Tony Romo is poised to have a HUGE day against the defense. We have seen what happens when Romo has time in the pocket and if given time the Cowboys receivers will get open and Romo will find them. We should also see some actual downfield passing attacks this game because the Cowboys are deadly when facing soft zone coverage, which is the primary scheme the 49ers run.
Team scoring:
Once again we look at the only numbers that really count, how a team scores against an opponent compared to how that those team fare against the rest of their schedule. To do this, we look at the 49ers points for and points against for the season and calculate what their opponents have allowed and scored when not facing the 49ers. These numbers will tell us just where the team lies when it comes to what counts the most, points.
| S.F. points scored | Opponents points allowed when not facing S.F. | S.F. points allowed | Opponents points scored when not facing S.F. | |
| Average | 23.0 | 24.11 | 27.5 | 22.19 |
The team is near average when it comes to scoring based on the opponents season average but it's obvious the problems are on the defensive side of the ball. When teams face San Francisco, they score more than five more points on average than they do against the rest of their schedule. That is tough for any offense to overcome, much less one that has changed quarterbacks and is learning a new system under Mike Martz.
Difference maker: Special Teams
It's amazing that the Dallas special teams have become so bad that we would rather our coach go for it on fourth and two rather than kick the field goal and risk another big kickoff return. But just how bad is the Cowboys' kickoff coverage and how does it stack up against the 49ers, whose special teams is without a doubt it's biggest strength?
Kickoff Coverage:
| Yds/Ret | Net | T.B. | |
| Dallas | 22.4 | 59.3 | 0 |
| San Fran | 23.5 | 65.5 | 7 |
The Cowboys are actually allowing fewer yards per return this year than they did in 2007, which is amazing considering how porous the coverage has been. It's obvious the biggest issue has actually been with the kicking itself. The Cowboys have 0 touchbacks this season but even more concerning is the net average per kick, which is dead last in the league. That means that while the kickoff coverage itself is not the worst, Nick Folk's distance has hampered the coverage unit's ability to pin opponents inside the 20. Folk is a great field goal kicker who is money when it counts, but for some reason he is just not able to kick it well off the tee.
Kick Returns:
| Yds/Ret | TD | 20+ | Ret/G | |
| Dallas | 22.2 | 1 | 25 | 4.2 |
| San Fran | 24.3 | 1 | 36 | 5.4 |
Allen Rossum has become a legitimate threat in the return game and is ranked sixth in the league with 27.2 yards per return.
Punt Coverage:
| Avg | Net | Yds/Ret | Inside 20 | Punts/G | |
| Dallas | 44.4 | 36.6 | 9.7 | 9 | 4.6 |
| San Fran | 47.0 | 39.2 | 9.0 | 7 | 4.0 |
Punt Returns:
| Avg | TD | Ret/G | 20+ | |
| Dallas | 6.9 | 0 | 2.3 | 1 |
| San Fran | 12.7 | 0 | 1.5 | 2 |
This is where is can turn dangerous for the Cowboys. Rossum is averaging a staggering 16.9 yards per punt return and the Cowboys are 22nd in the league in net punt average.
Bottom line: Special teams can be the difference in a bad team beating a good team and can turn the tide of a game in a heartbeat. The Cowboys know first hand what it is like to have poor kick coverage ruin a ballgame and there is more than a good possibility that could happen this weekend. Other than the first half of the Rams game, the 49ers offense does not generate much yardage or points and relies on their special teams to turn tilt field position in their favor. If the Cowboy allow Rossum any sort of room to get a big return the Cowboys could find themselves in dire straits against an offense that is confident when they get near the goalline.
For the Cowboys to secure a convicing win against a sub-par team, they must find a way to fix their special teams issues. There is no excuse to allow a down and out team back into the game due to poor coverage and too many times in the past two season have the Cowboys paid dearly because of special teams. The 49ers will feed off a good return and the Cowboys will find that momentum has shifted in a heartbeat if Rossum is allowed to run free.
Comments
I pray our special teams show up thats..
where we can blow this game. I think TO is speaking up out of frustration and the SF secondary may be exactly what he needs to stfu and get his numbers. Our defense needs to take this as a personal challenge i want to see a shutout this week.
Don't believe everything you think.
by stoproyce on
Nov 21, 2008 11:49 AM CST
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Good job Brandon,
As far as stopping their offense is concerned, it looks like we need to force turnovers and limit field position with disciplined coverage on kickoffs…uh oh…
by AikmanNailedMySis on
Nov 21, 2008 11:49 AM CST
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Newman misses practice
We spotted Terence Newman at Valley Ranch before practice, but the Pro Bowl cornerback wasn’t on the field during the portion open to the media.
Newman, of course, shut down Santana Moss in his return from sports hernia surgery last Sunday. Head coach Wade Phillips made no mention of Newman in his pre-practice press conference.
Newman has practiced with full participation all week. We’ll get an update on the reason for his absence soon.
Look up... get up...Don't ever, ever give up!!
by Boyzfan94 on
Nov 21, 2008 12:06 PM CST
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probably something non football related
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on
Nov 21, 2008 12:51 PM CST
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Newman Suffered Another Groin Injury...
He injured it during practice yesterday, he looks doubtful for this Sunday. These players are SO soft, Felix goes on IR by just rehabbing and now this…LOL!!!
~Texas Massacre 08~
by TheHeat on
Nov 21, 2008 2:10 PM CST
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Should be banned for lying and posting false links...
by DieSlowKeyshawn on
Nov 21, 2008 2:49 PM CST
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Why Don't You Go To DMN.com
It’s not my fault that the link doesn’t work. You should be banned for calling me a liar…
~Texas Massacre 08~
by TheHeat on
Nov 21, 2008 4:41 PM CST
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Folk vs Crosby?
After 25+ games how do they compare? Does Folk’s accuracy make up for his lack of distance?
by birdness on
Nov 21, 2008 12:47 PM CST
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I'd take Folk over Crosby in a heatbeat
Folk is clutch, Crosby isn’t…end of story
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on
Nov 21, 2008 12:52 PM CST
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I just have a hard time understanding
how you can be such an ace field goal kicker, not just accurate but long, and be such a lousy kicker offer.
by scottmaui on
Nov 21, 2008 12:55 PM CST
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I agree weird
bang a 56 yarder, but can’t get the ball in to the end zone on kick off?
"If you see me up in the mountains with a lion, I ain't lyin
don't help me, help the mountain lion"
by Wmillion on
Nov 22, 2008 1:35 AM CST
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kicker offer?
we’re making up football vernacular now?
I commented. You're welcome.
another transplant from The Blue & Silver Report
by bulldog jeeper on
Nov 22, 2008 10:12 AM CST
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Crosby is alitlle better, has a stronger leg
Crosby gets touchbacks on kickoffs where Folk doesn’t… Folk has some advantage since he essentually kicking 8 games in Dallas which is pretty much a dome for the most part and Crosby kicks 9 games in greenbay and chicago outdoors in windy swirling stadiums.
I was hoping the cowboys would of taken Crosby over Folk, but I’m just happy the cowboys finally addressed the kicking game through the draft for the first time in decades. I just never understood why this organization never addresseed such an important position especially when alot of these games come down to a late field goal.
by Deke on
Nov 21, 2008 1:37 PM CST
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Crosby isn't better
Folk makes FGs when they can’t, Crosby doesn’t and thats how you judge kickers, not by how far they kick off.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on
Nov 21, 2008 2:35 PM CST
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+1 I agree with Deke...I'm not dissing Folk, cuz I'm sure glad we got him....BUT
Crosby has the bigger leg (26 TB compared to Folk’s 4)
Is just as accurate with FG’s (career 80.6 to Folk’s 83.3)
We had a chance to draft Crosby, but took Folk…..the rest is history…..why people are debating this is beyond me….
btw Terry….If Folk hits an easy FG going into halftime against Arizona (domed stadium), we have momentum, a 3 point lead, and get the ball to start the second half (in which we scored a TD and would have been up 10 points) ….not saying his miss cost us that game, but we did have to go to OT because of those missed points.
A true diehard Cowboys fan since 1975.
"If you don’t take him off the field as a coach, he will just about die out there," Jerry Jones said. "That impacted my decision. It’s a Michael Irvin-type work ethic. That’s what we are talking about with Felix Jones."
- Owner/G.M of the Dallas Cowboys , Jerry Jones
by BoyzRback on
Nov 21, 2008 4:27 PM CST
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0.4
Zero point four INTs a game? That’s wretched.
by Joey2zs on
Nov 21, 2008 1:51 PM CST
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T. New, at least he's consistent ,ugh
just in time to kill some momentum
Don't believe everything you think.
by stoproyce on
Nov 21, 2008 2:34 PM CST
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is this a practical joke?
is he made out of papier mache’? Did he strain his uterus last Sunday?
by Joey2zs on
Nov 21, 2008 3:11 PM CST
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You're right about momentum killer
Good Lord I hate this season. Newman looked great the other night, too. Guess I’m glad Jerry loaded up on CB’s and aquired Pacrat.
by illcowboy on
Nov 21, 2008 3:52 PM CST
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I agree that
kicking in GB is more challenging because of the winds, but remember that a ball in cold weather travels further. Also, it isn’t as if Folk’s kickoffs have led to a below average starting field position for other teams.
by Kansas on
Nov 21, 2008 2:48 PM CST
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Newman, most likely done for the year. Lets go Jenkins and Scandrick, c'mon back Pacman!
by DieSlowKeyshawn on
Nov 21, 2008 3:06 PM CST
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why do you say done for the year?
or is that just hyperbole? it doesn’t sound that serious, but one can never tell with this coaching crew…
by scottmaui on
Nov 21, 2008 3:22 PM CST
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he isn't done for the year
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on
Nov 21, 2008 3:33 PM CST
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You can't go by ANYTHING that this coaching staff or head coach jerry jones says. Just yesterday they were saying Felix looked and felt good in practice, but had other stuff going on not related to the hammy.
They said he was questionable for Sunday, then 15 minutes later he was on IR. Do you honestly believe that Newman won’t be placed on IR in the next 2 days? If not next two weeks, definitely by the time Pacman gets back to open up his roster spot. Newman is done, his career is in jeopardy.
by DieSlowKeyshawn on
Nov 21, 2008 3:43 PM CST
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yes, I honestly believe that
there is a huge difference between a torn ligament or tendon and a strained groin, which is a different muscle than he had the surgery on.
You’re severely overreacting.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on
Nov 21, 2008 3:52 PM CST
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I'm just making an observation regarding this staff and how they discuss injuries.
Is this news and the way they are reporting it to the public much different than what they did in 2006/2007? Is it much different than what they said in training camp? Is it much different than what they said regarding Felix?
by DieSlowKeyshawn on
Nov 21, 2008 3:56 PM CST
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Nice stats.
Just goes to show what the D-Line and Coverage Units will mean for this game. Shaun Hill can play—when he’s on, and he’s not always on the entire game. The 49er O-Line can be harrassed into absolutely rendering them ineffective.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see Dallas open up the vertical attack, only to have a quick TD nullified by an even quicker one by Rossom. T’Would just force Tony and the boys to come out and do it again.
Super sucky about Newman. This for real?
George Teague did it all.
by Aaron Novinger (Bigrigga31) on
Nov 21, 2008 3:08 PM CST
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Why hasn't there been a seperate blog post on BTB regarding Newman? Is the news not as serious as a Shaun Hill piece?
by DieSlowKeyshawn on
Nov 21, 2008 3:44 PM CST
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There is a fanshot up
Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!
by cowboy78 on
Nov 21, 2008 3:51 PM CST
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ONCE AGAIN - IF ANY of you guys think San Fran is just going to stroll into town and stink up the joint, roll over, and give us a victory....think again...
Any offensive unit that employs RB-Frank Gore, TE- Vernon Davis, WR-Ike Bruce, WR- Bryant Johnson, and OT- Joe Staley has the ability to put up 20-30 points against any defense, including ours. Add to that a defense that has the likes of LB’s Peter Willis, Takeo Spikes, and Manny Lawson…CB- Nate Clements, and DE- Justin Smith can certainly cause our offense problems…To top it all off, they have one of the premier KO returners in the NFL with Allan Rossum…….We are now without the services of Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Terrence Newman, Anthony Henry, and Pacman Jones, and no better than the team that’s lost 4 games already…Mike Singletary will have these guys playing like it’s their SB…I can assure you that…
cake walk….i sure hope so….But on any given Sunday……Any team can beat the other….This Sunday is no different………
A true diehard Cowboys fan since 1975.
"If you don’t take him off the field as a coach, he will just about die out there," Jerry Jones said. "That impacted my decision. It’s a Michael Irvin-type work ethic. That’s what we are talking about with Felix Jones."
- Owner/G.M of the Dallas Cowboys , Jerry Jones
by BoyzRback on
Nov 21, 2008 4:55 PM CST
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I agree...
hopefully we can play a nice clean game with little penalties and no turnovers. If we can limit the big mistakes (i.e. holding penalites to negate a 1st down, illegal hands to the face on 3rd down, etc etc) we should be able to hold the 49ers off… Dallas 27 San Fran 17
by commoncents on
Nov 21, 2008 5:13 PM CST
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The niners are a joke
Frank Gore a threat yes, but Bruce, Davis, and Johnson? Maybe Bruce of 5 years ago would scare me. Davis has been nothing but a bust since in the league, Johnson hasn’t done anything since SF signed him, and Staley gets owned every game. We can’t take them lightly would be a mistake, but to say that all of these underachievers are going to start playing like pro bowlers is a mistake. My gut tells me Singletary drops his pants by the 2nd quarter lol.
by NDCowboy8 on
Nov 21, 2008 5:50 PM CST
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Hello Newman...."Seinfeld"
I think Raf was advocating in an earlier post about just putting the kids out there and let them learn to swim.
At this point, I agree. They get game experience and should be ready to start when next year rolls around.
As fragile as Newman and Henry are, and as unreliable as Pac is, the three of them together only equal one body on the field for a season. Add CB to our growing list of draft needs next year.
So, we play the cards we are dealt. Let’s hear it for the kids.
"It is an odd thing, but everyone who disappears is said to be seen at San Francisco" Oscar Wilde
by Jim Vance on
Nov 21, 2008 6:13 PM CST
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good job Brandon W...
if I had a nickel for every injury we had this year ….
"They need security in the world, Craig!"
by Tuna Helper on
Nov 22, 2008 11:02 AM CST
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