Season Simulation: Week 12

by ender0887 on Nov 25, 2008 4:52 PM CST

Let me preface this entry by stating that I am a computer science undergrad student in college right now. After this past weekend I was kind of wondering, exactly what are the chances that the Cowboys will make it to the playoffs.

So I decided to write a program that simulates the remaining games in this season's schedule and then determine which teams would make the playoffs in those situations.

I ran the simulation several thousand times and then calculated, for each team, the percentage of times they win the division or get a wild card seed. So the results of the simulation are below. Perhaps I will run it again after the Thanksgiving games are complete to see exactly how our chances have changed (hopefully increased).

I hope you all enjoy this bit of information, I thought it was very interesting.

Playoff Chances

AFC EAST

Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.396%
Chance to win the division           -- 6.0746%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.3214%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.7162%
Chance to win the division           -- 8.8682%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.848%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 50.9784%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2864%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.692%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 83.6148%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.7708%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.844%

AFC NORTH

Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 64.2332%
Chance to win the division           -- 25.11%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.1232%

Bengals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 1.0214%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0124%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.009%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.9302%
Chance to win the division           -- 74.8776%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 16.0526%

AFC SOUTH

Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.3242
Chance to win the division -- 0.0
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.3242

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.1696%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.6972%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 64.4724%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.5768%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.5768%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8344%
Chance to win the division           -- 95.3028%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 4.5316%

AFC WEST

Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.1786%
Chance to win the division           -- 79.1036%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.075%

Cheifs
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0934%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0934%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 3.6844%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.6528%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0316%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.2484%
Chance to win the division           -- 17.1502%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0982%

NFC EAST

Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 31.75%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.3452%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 28.4048%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 98.255%
Chance to win the division           -- 91.5576%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 6.6974%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 7.1664%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.1444%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 7.022%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 42.8968%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.9528%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 37.944%

NFC NORTH

Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.7508%
Chance to win the division           -- 45.594%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.1568%

Lions
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.6136%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2564%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.3572%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 37.8252%
Chance to win the division           -- 35.1496%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 2.6756%

NFC SOUTH

Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 44.9376%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.201%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.7366%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 72.3594%
Chance to win the division           -- 33.0228%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.3366%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 16.2792%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.7848%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.4944%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 82.166%
Chance to win the division           -- 47.9914%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 34.1746%

NFC WEST

Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8312%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.8312%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Rams
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0956%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0956%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Seahawks
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0732%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0732%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Comments

weighting

I assume you are just taking the number of combinations and projecting them right? Are you weighting the likelihood of upsets less or are you factoring in strength of remaining schedule in any way? Also, speaking as a Comp Sci grad, what language did you use?

Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!

by DerekSTheRed on Nov 25, 2008 4:59 PM CST reply actions

good question...

I ran this simulation 500,000 times. It probably would be more accurate if I ran it more times, but I was anxious to find out the results. Next time I will probably run it more times.

And no, I do not figure in strength of schedule or weight the games in any manner. Each game is considered a truly random event between the two teams.

I did this in a relatively new programming language that I have been playing with called Python. It is very similar to Java and C.

by ender0887 on Nov 25, 2008 5:15 PM CST up reply actions

python

Interesting. I’ve experimented a bit with python myself. I like it but I haven’t found a reason to use it yet.

Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!

by DerekSTheRed on Nov 25, 2008 8:15 PM CST up reply actions

Well

It looks like Dallas has no chance since it seems that the other 7-4 teams have a higher % than Dallas.

~Texas Massacre 08~

by TheHeat on Nov 25, 2008 5:07 PM CST reply actions

not necessarily...

That is not exactly what you should take out of this.
The fact is that there is a 31.75% chance that Dallas will make the playoffs.

by ender0887 on Nov 25, 2008 5:20 PM CST up reply actions

You don't understand statistics and probability then

by Kansas Cowboy on Nov 25, 2008 7:35 PM CST up reply actions

that was meant for The Heat

by Kansas Cowboy on Nov 25, 2008 7:36 PM CST reply actions

A very interesting study

I was thinking of something similar with less sophistication. Just predicting winners of each key matchup between a potential playoff contender in the NFC. I think for it to be more meaningful there would need to be a factor in each game to consider likelihood to win for each team.

by Kansas Cowboy on Nov 25, 2008 7:49 PM CST reply actions