Season Simulation: Week 12
Let me preface this entry by stating that I am a computer science undergrad student in college right now. After this past weekend I was kind of wondering, exactly what are the chances that the Cowboys will make it to the playoffs.
So I decided to write a program that simulates the remaining games in this season's schedule and then determine which teams would make the playoffs in those situations.
I ran the simulation several thousand times and then calculated, for each team, the percentage of times they win the division or get a wild card seed. So the results of the simulation are below. Perhaps I will run it again after the Thanksgiving games are complete to see exactly how our chances have changed (hopefully increased).
I hope you all enjoy this bit of information, I thought it was very interesting.

Playoff Chances
AFC EAST
Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.396%
Chance to win the division -- 6.0746%
Chance to get wildcard -- 13.3214%
Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.7162%
Chance to win the division -- 8.8682%
Chance to get wildcard -- 10.848%
Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 50.9784%
Chance to win the division -- 19.2864%
Chance to get wildcard -- 31.692%
Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 83.6148%
Chance to win the division -- 65.7708%
Chance to get wildcard -- 17.844%
AFC NORTH
Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 64.2332%
Chance to win the division -- 25.11%
Chance to get wildcard -- 39.1232%
Bengals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED
Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 1.0214%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0124%
Chance to get wildcard -- 1.009%
Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.9302%
Chance to win the division -- 74.8776%
Chance to get wildcard -- 16.0526%
AFC SOUTH
Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.3242
Chance to win the division -- 0.0
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.3242
Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.1696%
Chance to win the division -- 4.6972%
Chance to get wildcard -- 64.4724%
Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.5768%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.5768%
Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8344%
Chance to win the division -- 95.3028%
Chance to get wildcard -- 4.5316%
AFC WEST
Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.1786%
Chance to win the division -- 79.1036%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.075%
Cheifs
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0934%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0934%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0%
Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 3.6844%
Chance to win the division -- 3.6528%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0316%
Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.2484%
Chance to win the division -- 17.1502%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0982%
NFC EAST
Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 31.75%
Chance to win the division -- 3.3452%
Chance to get wildcard -- 28.4048%
Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 98.255%
Chance to win the division -- 91.5576%
Chance to get wildcard -- 6.6974%
Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 7.1664%
Chance to win the division -- 0.1444%
Chance to get wildcard -- 7.022%
Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 42.8968%
Chance to win the division -- 4.9528%
Chance to get wildcard -- 37.944%
NFC NORTH
Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.7508%
Chance to win the division -- 45.594%
Chance to get wildcard -- 1.1568%
Lions
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED
Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.6136%
Chance to win the division -- 19.2564%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.3572%
Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 37.8252%
Chance to win the division -- 35.1496%
Chance to get wildcard -- 2.6756%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 44.9376%
Chance to win the division -- 13.201%
Chance to get wildcard -- 31.7366%
Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 72.3594%
Chance to win the division -- 33.0228%
Chance to get wildcard -- 39.3366%
Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 16.2792%
Chance to win the division -- 5.7848%
Chance to get wildcard -- 10.4944%
Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 82.166%
Chance to win the division -- 47.9914%
Chance to get wildcard -- 34.1746%
NFC WEST
Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8312%
Chance to win the division -- 99.8312%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0%
Rams
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED
49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0956%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0956%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0%
Seahawks
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0732%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0732%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0%
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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12 comments
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weighting
I assume you are just taking the number of combinations and projecting them right? Are you weighting the likelihood of upsets less or are you factoring in strength of remaining schedule in any way? Also, speaking as a Comp Sci grad, what language did you use?
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on
Nov 25, 2008 4:59 PM CST
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good question...
I ran this simulation 500,000 times. It probably would be more accurate if I ran it more times, but I was anxious to find out the results. Next time I will probably run it more times.
And no, I do not figure in strength of schedule or weight the games in any manner. Each game is considered a truly random event between the two teams.
I did this in a relatively new programming language that I have been playing with called Python. It is very similar to Java and C.
by ender0887 on
Nov 25, 2008 5:15 PM CST
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python
Interesting. I’ve experimented a bit with python myself. I like it but I haven’t found a reason to use it yet.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on
Nov 25, 2008 8:15 PM CST
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Well
It looks like Dallas has no chance since it seems that the other 7-4 teams have a higher % than Dallas.
~Texas Massacre 08~
by TheHeat on
Nov 25, 2008 5:07 PM CST
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not necessarily...
That is not exactly what you should take out of this.
The fact is that there is a 31.75% chance that Dallas will make the playoffs.
by ender0887 on
Nov 25, 2008 5:20 PM CST
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A very interesting study
I was thinking of something similar with less sophistication. Just predicting winners of each key matchup between a potential playoff contender in the NFC. I think for it to be more meaningful there would need to be a factor in each game to consider likelihood to win for each team.
by Kansas Cowboy on
Nov 25, 2008 7:49 PM CST
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Football Outsiders has something like this I think.
by houseofprime on
Nov 25, 2008 8:19 PM CST
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oh I didn't know...
I was just playing around with my computer, I wasn’t trying to compete with them or anything.
This is just an amateur approach to the problem.
by ender0887 on
Nov 25, 2008 8:46 PM CST
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That's why I hate math, it's all facts and no heart...
Sorry that was a Stephen Colbert quote and I just think it works really well considering the numbers put out by this…
by AikmanNailedMySis on
Nov 25, 2008 8:41 PM CST
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That's no reason to hate math...
If we have the heart to win then it will happen anyway…
These are just the statistics involved. If he can win, then our chances will improve.
by ender0887 on
Nov 25, 2008 8:51 PM CST
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