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Let's Talk Numbers: It's all about stopping the run

The Dallas Cowboys look to extend their winning streak tomorrow against the 2-9 Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks, thought to be a lock for the NFC West division title, are struggling to find their way in a season mired by injury. At one point they were having open tryouts for wide receiver and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has struggled this season while dealing with an ailing back. Yet the team is getting healthier and have become much more competitive in the past few weeks.

How do the numbers stack up? What do the Cowboys do differently on defense that is key to winning games? Follow the jump to find out.

Star-divide

Seattle offense vs Dallas defense

Since the season began the Seattle offense has been besieged by injury to its skill positions. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has missed significant time with a nagging back injury that left the team struggling with Seneca Wallace and Charlie Frye playing in his place. The team also had to deal with their top four receivers all missing significant time at some point of the season.

Pct. Yds/G Avg TD/G Int/G Sacks/G Rating
Seattle pass offense 51.7 140.4 5.3 1.09 1.09 2.18 64.3
Dallas pass defense 62.4 196.2 6.7 1.36 0.45 3.00 90.0

To sat the Seattle passing attack has been anemic is an understatement. The quarterbacks aren't turning the ball over at a high rate, yet they aren't getting the ball downfield either. Averaging just over 5 yards per pass will allow opposing defenses to focus on stopping Seattles lone bright spot, the running game. Seattle boast a respectable 111 yards per game with 4.4 yards per carry, good for about average in the NFL. Yet without an overwhelming passing attack that forces defenses to back off the running game, the offense has failed to produce the explosiveness that was there in the first month. After putting up impressive numbers in the first few weeks of the season, Seattle has just three rushing touchdowns in the past eight games, all coming from third string back T.J. Duckett on goalline plays.

Out of 315 pass attempts this year, the Seattle Seahawks have just 19 "explosive" plays, ones that go for longer than 20 yards. That's good for 6.0%, next to last in the league in ratio of big plays per pass attempt. Compare that to Dallas' offense, that has 45 explosive plays in 360 attempts, or 12.0%.

Yet the Seattle offensive skill plays have slowly started to return to the lineup the past few weeks and the games have come down to the final minutes. Yet the offense has still not put up good numbers, with Hasselbeck averaging just 136 yards passing in the past two games, throwing three touchdowns to five interceptions good for a QB rating of 51.0.

Bottom line: The Dallas Cowboys defense is primed to dominate a struggling Seattle offense. The Cowboys Achilles heel all season long has been giving up big numbers in the passing game,  allowing opposing  quarterbacks to post an average rating of 90.0. Yet they now face an offense that has problems with timing and accuracy and the Cowboys can do themselves a favor and not allow them any room to gain momentum. Look for the Cowboys to have a big day putting pressure on the quarterback because Dallas will want to take advantage of an immobile Hasselbeck who can be forced  into bad decisions.

Dallas offense vs Seattle defense.

Just a quick little tidbit before I get to the numbers: the Miami Dolphins passing attack is ranked ahead of Dallas, in both yards per game and QB rating.  Thanks a lot Brad Johnson.

Pct Yds/G Avg TD/G Int/G Sacks/G Rating
Dallas pass offense 60.9 236.1 7.5 2.33 1.18 1.63 88.6
Seattle pass defense 66.3 259.2 7.8 1.45 0.45 2.35 98.1

If you thought Dallas' pass defense was bad, you haven't seen anything. The Seattle rush defense isn't horrible, giving up just 4.0 yards per carry and 111 yards a game. Yet why rush the ball when you can throw it at will?

The Seattle defense has allowed 49 "explosive" passing plays this season, by far the most in the league. Opposing offense are picking up large chunks of yards at a time against the Seattle defense and while they have been playing teams tougher as of late, the defense still has yet to completely figure things out. In two of the last three games the defense focused on shutting down the pass and allowed just 5.5 yards per pass attempt. However while trying to stop the pass they forgot about the running backs, giving up 171 yards per game on the ground. Against the Cardinals Seattle was able to stop the run, but gave up nearly 400 yards through the air.

Bottom line: The Seahawks have yet to figure out how to make a team one dimensional and still win the game. While they have been competitive lately, an ailing Matt Hasselbeck has thrown game ending interceptions in each of the last two games.

If the Cowboys can force Seattle to abandon the run and do their best to win through the air, the defense's day will be become much, much easier. The Seahawks have also had trouble against teams with multiple offensive weapons; without enough players on defense to matchup against decent receivers the Seattle defense has been one of the worst in the league this season against the pass. Look for the Cowboys offense to have another big day through the air in what on paper should be an easy win.

Don't forget the intangibles, though. Mike Holmgren and Matt Hasslebeck are always capable of coming up big in games, and Julius Jones will be extra motivated to have a great day against his former team. But if the Cowboys come to play and execute like they have lately, the Seattle emotions will run thin and talent will win out in the end.

Bonus coverage: The Dallas Cowboys run defense

The Dallas Cowboys have four losses this season, two in close games and two in blowouts. Yet all four games have the same common denominator: the Cowboys' rushing defense was horrible.

We all know what the Cowboys are going to do against the pass. They'll sit back, keep everything in front of them and do their best not to allow big plays through the air. This type of defense gives up big numbers overall yet the Cowboys have done well stiffening up in the red zone. It's a perfect example of bend but don't break defense. Yet the key for this type of defense to work if that the front seven has to play well against the run.

Attempts Tot. Yds Yds/G Avg
In wins 138 481 68.0 3.4
In losses 120 604 151 5.0

The Cowboys are remarkably consistent against the pass, but stopping the run has to be the focus for the defense to have any success. The stark difference in numbers shows that when teams have success running the ball the Cowboys have yet to win. In the Giants game the Cowboys showed a small sliver of life after Brooks Bollinger led the team for a touchdown drive but the New York went on a demoralizing march down the field, running it down the Cowboys' throats and running out the clock as well.

 

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Martellus Bennett

Questionable for Tomorrows game.

by Prime-Time on Nov 26, 2008 4:53 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

yes, but he says he is definitely going to play

it’s not up to him obviously, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t play.

by scottmaui on Nov 26, 2008 5:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

upcoming draft picks

I was wondering what positions we have for the upcoming draft? I know we have lost some picks for RW and MH but don’t we get back a 5th rounder because of pacs suspension? What is concrete at this point?

by rdoubina on Nov 26, 2008 7:28 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I believe it looks like this off the top of my head

Dallas own picks -second, fourth, seventh round, plus:

a Third rounder from Cleveland

a Fourth and seventh rounder from Detroit

a fifth rounder from the titans

Sixth round from Miami for nose tackle Jason Ferguson

Two compensatory picks, Julius Jones and Jacgue Reeves..yet to be determined where those picks are, based on their performance and playing time

by Deke on Nov 26, 2008 8:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"If the Cowboys can force Seattle to abandon the run"

HAAHA!!!! Have you seen this team? Mike Holmgren is doing the job FOR you! This team is 24th in rushing attempts, meaning they have run more plays (about 50+ more I believe) with their 31st ranked passing offense than their rushing offense.

Good luck tomorrow, I’m predicting 51-10 Cowboys.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Seattle, the world's worst sports city.

by SSreporters on Nov 26, 2008 9:10 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

The Stats lead directly to the Safeties.

In my analysis,
If the guys up front stop the run, the safeties on our team can focus on the pass and not be exposed.
Force them to creep up and help out on the run, and our whole D falls like dominoes, as the safeties don’t have the ability/speed to reverse direction and cover when teams are 2-dimensional, and they have to think both pass and run.

by Realist Larry on Nov 26, 2008 9:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Seattle's played Wash. and Arizona tough

2 teams as good as the Cowboys and also playing for everything.

If we can avoid sleeping late and dozing through the 1st qtr., this game could be comfortable. Get a lead and our D could tee off.
Another bad 1st qtr. however, and another too-close game.
I’ll say 27-21 Dallas.

by Realist Larry on Nov 26, 2008 9:23 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

We need

Charlie Weiss in the middle. But he won’t be cheap.

by Elwood62 on Nov 26, 2008 10:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Weiss's front butt is the most epic in all of sports.

Why am I not surprised this guy wasn’t a varsity athlete at any level?

by MadMick on Nov 27, 2008 12:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I Say Different

Stopping the run is not the priority. Hasselbeck has been out a lot and Seneca Wallace did nothing to help them sustain their vaunted passing attack.

Don’t kid yourself, the Seachicks can throw the ball and they will do so early and often tomorrow, with the reckless abandon of a 3-8 team. I suggest we think about how to overwhem their o-line in obvious passing situations, because I saw Matt eat up a good Redskin secondary last week. Last time I checked, we had a gimpy Newman, Anthony (gulp) Henry and Orlando Scandrick, and thats it!!!

No, I say we should be VERY afraid of their passing game.

"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Nov 27, 2008 12:30 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

what makes me uneasy

The Cowboys just gave up 300 yards to a QB making his 5 NFL start. Throwing to a Rams cast off and a host of no names.

The 49ers had the ball inside the Cowboy 20 on three separate occasions and only came away with 6 points. Given the chance the Seahawks will not make the same mistakes.

 Brandon you have to throw out most of those numbers because the Seahawks have only been offensively healthy for the past two weeks

Seattle had their top 7 WR’s either start the season injured or get hurt in the first couple of games. Hasselbeck also missed several games due to a knee and back injury. Think back to last year when TO went down in the Panther game how far the Cowboy offense fell off. Well try taking Owens, Crayton, Austin, Hurd, and add 3 more to the list. It got so bad for Seattle they even moved their 2nd string Qb (Wallace) to WR and he got hurt as well. Those injuries did have one benefit, it forced the Hawks to rush to developed TE John Carlson and improve their running game.

While Hasselbeck is still playing injured, he still moves around well. He will tuck the ball and run if needed. They now have two of their starting WR’s back and Corin Roberson is playing well for them. With Branch back it moves Bobby Engram back to the slot where he is very effective.

They are a team built on timing and rhythm. When they are in sink they are in and out of the huddle in a hurry. If they get JJ going (and he will play with a chip on his shoulder) the Hawk receivers are all veterans who have played together in this offense for years. They will get open and Hasselbeck will find them.

On the defense side of the ball the Hawks are small and quick. They are built to play with and protect a lead. They only have one real injury and that is to DE Kearney. Their Linebacking crew is among the best in the league Peterson is quick and can cover and blitz. Hill is very athletic , and Tatupu is small but hits and makes plays from the middle. Their corners are good.. I think Trufant came out the same year as Tnew and like tnew only started to get the press last year. Josh Wilson is a playmaker. Both on the defensive side of the ball and on special teams. The Hawks thought so much of their safeties that they allowed Hamlin walk.

the Cowboys are missing RW1, Pacjones, Jenkins, Tnew is hobbled, Henry is hurt or just slow, and Watkins may not play. Things are so bad with the DB’s that the Cowboys brought in a 5’7" 175 lb guy from the Chargers practice squad

Add to all of that no Kosier, Fjones, Miles, Hurd and Witten’s ribs, Bennett’s ankle, Romos hand, and whatever is ailing Flow.

Brandon, don’t worry without Kosier the Cowboys become one dimensional. As they were on Sunday against the 49ers. Don’t expect the Seahawks to let TO run freely without bumping him at the line.

The team the Cowboys are playing on Thanksgiving is not the 2-9 Seahawks, they are playing a healthy Seattle team that has won five straight NFC West Titles. I hope the Cowboys play as though they know it. If the Cowboys lose on Thursday I see them finishing 8-8

by 082288 on Nov 27, 2008 1:12 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

The NFC West is the NFL equivalent to the Mountain West Conference.

Well, the Cardinals finally came around this year; about time, too.

I look at the Seahawks run of consecutive division crowns like this. Even with all those gimmes, the 5-time running NFC West champ only ever won enough regular season games to secure a playoff bye once. Big Cheeseburger in Suicide-Dise is a lame duck coach. Their starting receivers aren’t that much better than the 9ers receiving corps. Let’s not make these buzzards out to be more than they are. If the Cowboys haven’t figured out they can’t just show up and beat anybody they want by now, they never will; doesn’t make the Seahawks a fearsome opponent.

by MadMick on Nov 27, 2008 1:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This is what I wrote:
Yet the Seattle offensive skill plays have slowly started to return to the lineup the past few weeks and the games have come down to the final minutes. Yet the offense has still not put up good numbers, with Hasselbeck averaging just 136 yards passing in the past two games, throwing three touchdowns to five interceptions good for a QB rating of 51.0

I understand the offense is healthy again after being hurt most of the year, but they still didn’t put up great numbers the past few games. What was different was that the defense was able to hold opposing teams close enough to give Seattle a chance, which Hasselbeck quickly squandered away.

Seattle is better than their record, but this is about the numbers and how they stack up heading into the game. It’s cool to see and gives some perspective on your opponent, but it in no way is a definitive judgment on the team we’re facing. However, the past few games my micro-analysis of the opponent’s stats have been pretty close: Force Jason Campbell to have to throw it downfield and he’ll crumble (that worked), take Gore out of the game and make Shaun Hill beat you (He didn’t).

by Brandon Worley on Nov 27, 2008 2:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I hope you are right again

It is tough being a Cowboy fan living in Seattle

by 082288 on Nov 27, 2008 3:46 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

yea, but

it’s probably harder to be a seahawks fan in seattle…lol

I commented. You're welcome.

another transplant from The Blue & Silver Report

by bulldog jeeper on Nov 27, 2008 7:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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