Playoff Chances (Updated after Thanksgiving games)
by ender0887 on Nov 28, 2008 6:48 PM CST
14 comments
So last week I did a post about this program I wrote to simulate the remaining games in the regular season in the NFL, then decide the playoff contenders. After the Thanksgiving Day games were completed, I ran this simulation 1,000,000 times to see how much better our chances were to make the playoffs. Looks like they have improved a bit.
Below are the chances that each team in the NFL has to make the playoffs...
Playoff Chances
NFC EAST
Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.1657%
Chance to win the division -- 5.384%
Chance to get wildcard -- 40.7817%
Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 97.796%
Chance to win the division -- 89.8986%
Chance to get wildcard -- 7.8974%
Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 10.6554%
Chance to win the division -- 0.2629%
Chance to get wildcard -- 10.3925%
Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 39.2828%
Chance to win the division -- 4.4545%
Chance to get wildcard -- 34.8283%
NFC NORTH
Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.3231%
Chance to win the division -- 45.5433%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.7798%
Lions
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED
Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.482%
Chance to win the division -- 19.2751%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.2069%
Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 37.0527%
Chance to win the division -- 35.1816%
Chance to get wildcard -- 1.8711%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 40.6384%
Chance to win the division -- 13.2316%
Chance to get wildcard -- 27.4068%
Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.0414%
Chance to win the division -- 32.9943%
Chance to get wildcard -- 36.0471%
Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 14.2789%
Chance to win the division -- 5.7921%
Chance to get wildcard -- 8.4868%
Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.2836%
Chance to win the division -- 47.982%
Chance to get wildcard -- 31.3016%
NFC WEST
Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8034%
Chance to win the division -- 99.8034%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0%
Rams
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED
49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.1966%
Chance to win the division -- 0.1966%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0%
Seahawks
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED
AFC EAST
Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.3156%
Chance to win the division -- 6.0228%
Chance to get wildcard -- 13.2928%
Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.7205%
Chance to win the division -- 8.8674%
Chance to get wildcard -- 10.8531%
Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 50.9946%
Chance to win the division -- 19.3767%
Chance to get wildcard -- 31.6179%
Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 83.6189%
Chance to win the division -- 65.7331%
Chance to get wildcard -- 17.8858%
AFC NORTH
Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 64.1863%
Chance to win the division -- 25.1835%
Chance to get wildcard -- 39.0028%
Bengals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED
Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 1.0224%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0113%
Chance to get wildcard -- 1.0111%
Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.8446%
Chance to win the division -- 74.8052%
Chance to get wildcard -- 16.0394%
AFC SOUTH
Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.3155%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.3155%
Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.1832%
Chance to win the division -- 2.3255%
Chance to get wildcard -- 66.8577%
Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.5978%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.5978%
Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.9937%
Chance to win the division -- 97.6745%
Chance to get wildcard -- 2.3192%
AFC WEST
Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.0914%
Chance to win the division -- 79.0173%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0741%
Cheifs
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0836%
Chance to win the division -- 0.0836%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0%
Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 3.7033%
Chance to win the division -- 3.6712%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.0321%
Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.3286%
Chance to win the division -- 17.2279%
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.1007%
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Impressive
What values do you use to determine the odds of winning an individual game? Do you make any adjustments for road or home, or key injuries?
How do you sort out the tiebreaking logic for each iteration? What software do you use to run the simulation? Do you use Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube, or some other iterative technique?
I’d bet you’d never guess I’m working on my master’s degree in operations research.
by kindablue on Nov 28, 2008 8:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I made it as simple as possible...
The statistics of each game is completely random. A 50% chance for each team to win.
The tiebreaking logic is done mostly with long nested if elseif statements.
The simulation is just iterative.
And I’m sure you could do a much better job writing this than I could, but it’s the best I could do with just an almost complete bachelor’s degree in computer science.
by ender0887 on Nov 29, 2008 12:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I Like It
Even more impressive you cooked it up on your own. Choosing a random victory probability isn’t a bad assumption, either. The temptation of many is to assume an 11-1 team like the Giants have a 91% chance of future victories, but reality it’s much lower. So 50-50 isn’t a poor choice at all.
What language are you using?
by kindablue on Nov 29, 2008 8:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wrote it...
in a fairly new language I have been playing around with, called Python.
It is one of the easiest programming languages to learn…
by ender0887 on Nov 29, 2008 10:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's A Significant Jump From Last Week.
~Texas Massacre 08~
by TheHeat on Nov 28, 2008 8:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
i would be interesting to post these somewhere in a grid
so you can see the changes from week to week over the last games
by scottmaui on Nov 29, 2008 2:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
And just think...
…three weeks ago everyone was writing them off….
"The rumors of our demise have been greatly exaggerated." -Dallas Cowboys
by california fan on Nov 29, 2008 9:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
After Sunday
I’m sure these have changed…and not in the Cowboys’ favor.
by Cosby Sweater on Nov 30, 2008 11:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Umm, check the Eagles again
They have a zero % chance of winning the division. They can only go 10-5-1, while the Gmen are already at 11 wins. Giants then already have guaranteed higher winning percentage than the Iggles.
by mdlusk on Dec 4, 2008 5:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I like it otherwise
Thumbs up for crunching the numbers.
by mdlusk on Dec 4, 2008 5:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Check the other post...
These numbers were calculated after Thanksgiving, before the Giants won their game on Sunday.
I have another post up with the numbers after Week 13.
by ender0887 on Dec 4, 2008 9:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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