Playoff Chances (Updated after Thanksgiving games)

by ender0887 on Nov 28, 2008 6:48 PM CST Comment 14 comments

So last week I did a post about this program I wrote to simulate the remaining games in the regular season in the NFL, then decide the playoff contenders. After the Thanksgiving Day games were completed, I ran this simulation 1,000,000 times to see how much better our chances were to make the playoffs. Looks like they have improved a bit.

Below are the chances that each team in the NFL has to make the playoffs...

Playoff Chances

NFC EAST

Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.1657%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.384%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.7817%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 97.796%
Chance to win the division           -- 89.8986%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 7.8974%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 10.6554%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.2629%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.3925%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 39.2828%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.4545%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 34.8283%

NFC NORTH

Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.3231%
Chance to win the division           -- 45.5433%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.7798%

Lions
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.482%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2751%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.2069%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 37.0527%
Chance to win the division           -- 35.1816%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.8711%

NFC SOUTH

Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 40.6384%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.2316%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 27.4068%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.0414%
Chance to win the division           -- 32.9943%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 36.0471%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 14.2789%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.7921%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.4868%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.2836%
Chance to win the division           -- 47.982%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.3016%

NFC WEST

Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8034%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.8034%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Rams
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.1966%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.1966%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Seahawks
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

AFC EAST

Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.3156%
Chance to win the division           -- 6.0228%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.2928%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.7205%
Chance to win the division           -- 8.8674%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.8531%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 50.9946%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.3767%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.6179%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 83.6189%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.7331%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.8858%

AFC NORTH

Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 64.1863%
Chance to win the division           -- 25.1835%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.0028%

Bengals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 1.0224%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0113%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.0111%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.8446%
Chance to win the division           -- 74.8052%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 16.0394%

AFC SOUTH

Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.3155%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.3155%

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.1832%
Chance to win the division           -- 2.3255%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 66.8577%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.5978%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.5978%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.9937%
Chance to win the division           -- 97.6745%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 2.3192%

AFC WEST

Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.0914%
Chance to win the division           -- 79.0173%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0741%

Cheifs
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0836%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0836%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 3.7033%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.6712%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0321%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.3286%
Chance to win the division           -- 17.2279%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.1007%

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Comments

Impressive

What values do you use to determine the odds of winning an individual game? Do you make any adjustments for road or home, or key injuries?

How do you sort out the tiebreaking logic for each iteration? What software do you use to run the simulation? Do you use Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube, or some other iterative technique?

I’d bet you’d never guess I’m working on my master’s degree in operations research.

by kindablue on Nov 28, 2008 8:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I made it as simple as possible...

The statistics of each game is completely random. A 50% chance for each team to win.

The tiebreaking logic is done mostly with long nested if elseif statements.

The simulation is just iterative.

And I’m sure you could do a much better job writing this than I could, but it’s the best I could do with just an almost complete bachelor’s degree in computer science.

by ender0887 on Nov 29, 2008 12:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I Like It

Even more impressive you cooked it up on your own. Choosing a random victory probability isn’t a bad assumption, either. The temptation of many is to assume an 11-1 team like the Giants have a 91% chance of future victories, but reality it’s much lower. So 50-50 isn’t a poor choice at all.

What language are you using?

by kindablue on Nov 29, 2008 8:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs