Playoff Chances (Updated after Week 13)

by ender0887 on Dec 2, 2008 9:17 AM CST Comment 17 comments

Okay, well we won our game... but so did just about everyone else that we are competing with for a wild card spot. That did not hurt our chances that much though.

Below are the chances that each team will make the playoffs this year...

Playoff Chances

NFC EAST
Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 42.0151333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 1.51036666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.5047666667%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8257%
Chance to win the division           -- 98.4896333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.33606666667%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 8.32943333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.32943333333%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.7816666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.7816666667%

NFC NORTH
Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 24.8387%
Chance to win the division           -- 23.9715666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.867133333333%

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 10.0701%
Chance to win the division           -- 10.0405%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0296%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 66.5333%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.9879333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.545366666667%

NFC SOUTH
Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 51.4987666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 11.4459%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.0528666667%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 84.3858666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 33.5837333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 50.8021333333%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 4.0315%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0269%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 4.0046%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.6898333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 54.9434666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 35.7463666667%

NFC WEST
Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.6077333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.6077333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.392266666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.392266666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

AFC EAST
Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 9.0982%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.16446666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 3.93373333333%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 28.4637%
Chance to win the division           -- 20.4486666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.01503333333%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 26.4199333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.4054%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.0145333333%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 70.2213666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 60.9814666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 9.2399%

AFC NORTH
Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 82.9370666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 26.9917%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 55.9453666667%

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.00146666666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.00146666666667%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 97.498%
Chance to win the division           -- 73.0083%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 24.4897%

AFC SOUTH
Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.264633333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.264633333333%

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 85.0879333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.91933333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 81.1686%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- .0000333333333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- .0000333333333333%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.9961333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 96.0806666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 3.91546666667%

AFC WEST
Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 94.2685666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 94.2685666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.292433333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.292433333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 5.45053333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.439%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0115333333333%

Eliminated Teams: Bengals, Cheifs, Lions, Rams, Seahawks

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Comments

Interesting...

Falcons have a better chance to make the playoffs, but Cowboys are a few hundreths of a percentage point ahead of them to get a wild card birth, basically a dead heat. Come on New Orleans!

by Cosby Sweater on Dec 2, 2008 10:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

These doesn't take in to account

The nfc south teams playing each other..

"If you see me up in the mountains with a lion, I ain't lyin
don't help me, help the mountain lion"

by Wmillion on Dec 2, 2008 10:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually it does...

Because I simulated the remaining games in the regular season so it takes into account that those teams have to play each other.

Assuming that there is a 50% chance for each team to win a specific game, and over 3 million simulations, this data is the percentage of those simulations that end with the team in the playoffs.

by ender0887 on Dec 2, 2008 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So far this season, home teams win about 60% of the time

What would the odds look like if you took that into account?

Just a few million more runs, right?

How Bout Them Cowboys!

by sprprsnmn on Dec 2, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Greedy bastid!

Duane Thomas, Calvin Hill, Tony Dorsett, Emmitt Smith ... and now BOTH Marion Barber and Felix Jones

by DalaiLuke on Dec 3, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If we win out we only need Atlanta to lose 1 game.

by houseofprime on Dec 2, 2008 11:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

so

Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs – .0151333333%
Chance to win the division – 1.51036666667%
Chance to get wildcard – 40.5047666667%

so can we drop the whole “cowboys can still win the division” talk yet? the wildcard’s still a possibility, but division title is a pipe dream this year

I commented. You're welcome.

another transplant from The Blue & Silver Report

by bulldog jeeper on Dec 3, 2008 6:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Before the last week it was a slight posssibility

but after the GMen beat the Skins, its pretty much impossible, GMen would have to lose every game which isn’t going to happen.

If the GMen would have lost to Skins, Eagles and us, it was possible though.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Dec 3, 2008 9:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Play out your own scenario

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario
addicting.

by mlibbey on Dec 3, 2008 7:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

thanks a lot

that can eat up a lot of my time! It is pretty cool though. I know it won’t happen but there’s even a scenario whereby the Cowboys can be the #1 seed…requires the Giants to finish 0-4 and 1 more loss by the Bucs, Panthers and 2 by the Falcons. Reality is we’re in a fierce battle for the 5th or 6th seed and this tool makes you aware just how challenging it is. We can lose 1 game but if we lose 2 they have to be to the Ravens and Steelers and we need some help from others.

by Kansas Cowboy on Dec 5, 2008 9:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Theres

also a playoff simulator on SportingNews.com. Check it out. Tons of fun.-

by ProudYankee on Dec 8, 2008 5:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

FO: 20.9% chance Cowboys in playoffs

FWIW, DMN blog has 5 questions with Football Outsiders…

5) OK, let’s revisit a topic that always gets the masses riled up. The Cowboys’ playoff odds, as calculated by your site, have soared to 20.9 percent. Would you bet on the Cowboys catching one of the NFC South squads?

It’s going to be really, really difficult. We have the Cowboys with the most difficult schedule, by far, in the league over the final four weeks. The good news is that Carolina has the second-most difficult schedule, but Carolina’s closer to the 13th-ranked schedule of Chicago than they are to Dallas.

Over the final four weeks, the Cowboys will have to play four of the top five teams in the league by DVOA, two of them on the road. They won’t get to play Week 17 against a team resting its players. Carolina has to play the Giants, but by Week 16, they’ll likely have clinched home-field advantage and be scaling back things. Tampa gets to play San Diego and Oakland the final two weeks of the season. Those are gimmes. Atlanta has the Rams in Week 17. That’s a gimme. Even Philly (Cleveland) and Washington (Cincinnati, San Francisco) have games that they’re going to be significantly favored in.

Pretty much everything is going to have to go right for the Cowboys to make the playoffs. It can happen — everything went right for the Giants in the playoffs last year — but what you’re looking at is a scenario where Washington and Philly each lose, Atlanta and Tampa lose to New Orleans and they end up with three teams in the division at 10-6 and 9-7, and the Cowboys win at least two of their four games. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? Not really. That’s why we have them at 20 percent, and even with the non-quantitative data that we know and the system doesn’t, I wouldn’t put them much higher than that.

by scottmaui on Dec 6, 2008 2:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs