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Cowboys vs. Ravens -- The Makeup Exam

Dallas is certainly smarting over the 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago.  The fans certainly are.  Dallas took control of the game in the 3rd quarter and relinquished control in the 4th.  Big plays by Pittsburgh and equally big mistakes by the Cowboys, most notably Tony Romo, sealed the defeat.

Tonight game represents a do over, in that the Ravens are as close a carbon copy to the Steelers, in terms of personnel and strategy, as you will find.  Wonder how Dallas might have played the Steelers on a weather neutral field, where the cold and, most importantly, the wind was no factor?  You'll get your answer tonight.

 

 

Star-divide

The Ravens, like the Steelers, play a pressure 3-4.  Like Pittsburgh, they have a large, athletic nose tackle in Haloti Ngata, thought Ngata lines up a lot at DE -- more on this later.  They also have a big time edge rusher in OLB Terrell Suggs and they have a top notch secondary led by blue-chip safety Ed Reed. 

Their DC Rex Ryan, is Buddy Ryan's son, and like his dad, Rex loves to blitz, though he's not the bombs-away blitzer that Dick LeBeau and Steve Spangnuolo are.  Baltimore does not have the raw totals the Steelers and Giants have -- they have just 31 sacks and don't have a double digit sacker. 

They are every bit as effective as those other units;  they don't produce as many sacks but they have more interceptions.  They lead the NFL with 22, almost two per game.  They create confusion with their pressure and their coverage packages and harvest the mistakes.

In character, they are more like the Giants like the Steelers.  Like Spagnulo, Ryan calls a lot of corner and safety blitzes and plays a lot of zone packages behind them.  Romo was awful at finding and hitting open receivers -- and he had plently -- in the Pittsburgh cold.  He was much better last week.  He didn't always complete the pass, but his reads were sound.

Another game from the take-what's-there Romo should see Dallas move the ball and get points, though the Cowboys may rely on Nick Folk's foot more today than they have this year.  Here are some likely game keys:

When Dallas Has the Ball

-- Throw first, run later:  This is Jason Garrett's M.O.  Has been since he took over the offense.  He wants to attack downfield, get an early lead, wear out an opponents big runt DL with lots of early rushes and then hammer at them in the second half when they become winded. 

The Ravens are very, very good at stopping the run, so don't be surprised to see Dallas run only 8-10 rushes in the first half. That doesn't mean that Tashard Choice will be dormant.  He'll simply be used in different ways. 

-- Use the backs as receivers.  Zone blitzing means you rush five or six men and play a zone behind it.  Most four man rush packages play four across deep and three in the deep zone.  Zone blitzing coverages deploy in a 3-3 set.  There's a lot more space than normal in the short zones and the Cowboys have been very effective at throwing to Choice and Barber in these sets. 

If the Ravens play man-to-man, Choice will have opportunities for big plays.  He burned the Pittsburgh ILBs on simple circle routes.  He made some big catches last week cutting through New York's short zone.  Look for him to catch first and run late.

-- Attack Ray Lewis in zone coverage:  Ray Lewis is still performing at a high level against the run, and he has three interceptions this year.  But he's the weak link in Baltimore's zone schemes.  Romo passed up a lot of easy tosses to Jason Witten and expecially to Martellus Bennett in Pittsburgh.  He should have opportunities to both of them against Lewis tonight.

-- Go after Fabian Washington:  Washington replaced the injured Chris McAlister at LCB and has played at a mediocre level.  His YPA, according to KC Joyner is in the mid 9.0s.  Consider that Jacques Reeves, for all the abuse he took from fans last year, had a 7.9 YPA last year. 

Washington had a 9.2 YPA last year for Oakland and lost his Raiders job in August.  He's not playing any better for Baltimore, but he's got better people around him so the Ravens can tolerate his play.  With McAlister out, they have no choice. 

Baltimore doesn't give Washington that much safety help, so look for Dallas to attack him short, with comebacks and slants, and try to set him up for big plays later.  See if they match T.O. on him early, to learn if the Ravens will double him, as many other teams have. 

The more intriguing matchup for me will be Miles Austin against Washington.  Austin returned last week and made some big plays on deeper routes.  He seems a lot healthier than Roy Williams, who looks like a giant decoy right now with his injured heel. 

When Baltimore Has the Ball

-- Bend but don't break:  The Cowboys have been very, very good as stopping opponents in the red zone since the bye.  In fact, the Cowboys D has surrendered only three TDs since the Redskins scored on their opening drive of the rematch.  And two of those were garbage scores by the 49ers when the game was decided and the scrubs were in.

They'll need to do the same to a Ravens team that is averaging roughly the same points as Dallas.  There are three keys to the defense -- and to watching at home:

A.  Don't pull your hair out when the Ravens run.  They like to keep things simple for rookie QB Joe Flacco.  They will start in two TE sets and hammer RB Willis McGahee.  They also have the ageless FB Lorenzo Neal to lead him.  They are very capable of getting into a running rhythm and rolling 30 or 40 yards down the field. As long as Dallas can keep them from rolling into the end zone, the game will be there for the taking.

B.  Keep TE Todd Heap under control:  The Cowboys passing defensive strategy has been to take away the opponents wide receivers and concede plays to the tight ends.  The Ravens don't throw to TE Todd Heap much -- he has only 30 receptions this year -- but he will have a matchup edge against dinged up SS Keith Davis.  When the Ravens move inside the Dallas 35, look for seam routes to Davis, in an attempt for a quick score.

C.  Keep Terence Newman on WR Derrick Mason.  Mark Clayton has a larger YPR, but Mason is the team's big play guy.  Flacco looks for him on deep fades, comebacks and outs.  And he's been destroying teams for 18-20 yard chunks.  Newman has been his shutdown self when he's healthy.  He locked down Santana Moss in November and made Domenik Hixon look ordinary last week.  Wade Phillips says he needs to "challenge" Newman to get his best.  Matching him on the Ravens best will likely be this week's challenge.

Prediction:  Two good defenses, but the Cowboys have been hotter.  Only Pittsburgh can claim better stats down the stretch.  The defense played better than the Steelers' D when the two teams met and they outplayed New York last week.

This score might seem extreme, but I think this is the week the defense wins the game outright.  I see a tight game for much of the afternoon, but I also think its time for the D to score.  I don't know if Ware forces a fumble for a score or Newman or one of his mates gets a pick six, but the defense is overdue a score or two of their own.

Dallas 27, Baltimore 10.

 

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Comments

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the big difference obviously is the qb

Roethlisberger is obviously much better than Flacco.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Dec 20, 2008 4:54 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I cant help but think Martellus comes up withcouple of big plays.

Id like to see him score a long one on a screen. Id like to see some max protect anytime we get near mid field and send both TO and Austin on go routes. Throw deep to who ever Reed ignores. If its picked off its as good as a punt. That may help back them off some.

by squidlo97 on Dec 20, 2008 5:03 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No no no... I need Witten to score... Witten, Witten, Witten

My FF depends on Witten, Romo and the Cowboys D

My prediction for tonight: Cowboys D dominates, Romo goes OFF and hits Roy for a long one, TO adds another, Witten gets two (hey, I can dream), and the Cowboys DOMINATE a lesser team.

If we’re worthy of a Super Bowl, we don’t lose this game.

Cowboys 27-10

Duane Thomas, Calvin Hill, Tony Dorsett, Emmitt Smith ... and now BOTH Marion Barber and Felix Jones

by DalaiLuke on Dec 20, 2008 6:07 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL

oops… adding up my scoring – guess Folk finally misses an extra point … in garbage time?

Duane Thomas, Calvin Hill, Tony Dorsett, Emmitt Smith ... and now BOTH Marion Barber and Felix Jones

by DalaiLuke on Dec 20, 2008 6:08 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I read where the Ravens line up with 2-3 tackles on one side creating an unbalanced line

and grind you down. I hope we come out clicking on D. If Ware gets a sack early the crowd will lose it.

by squidlo97 on Dec 20, 2008 5:05 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Geez, hit Enter rather than tab...

This will be the game where the Dallas D no longer makes a nobody look like Dan Fouts? To me, that is one of the most frustrating aspects of our D for the last 5 years. Flacco is good or he wouldn’t be on the field but come on, this is the NFL were the defensive looks are 20 times the average college team defense.

by Keys80 on Dec 20, 2008 5:13 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

For me, this game comes down to two things

Just like the Pittsburgh game, The offensive line and tony Romo.

The Offensive line has to establish enough of a running game to slow up the pass rush, pick up the blitzes and Tony Romo has to be smart with the football, he can’t afford the turnovers giving the Ravens a short field to work with and take what the defense gives him. Look for screens and the backs coming out of the backfield. Be patient, control the clock…

by Deke on Dec 20, 2008 5:43 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What are you talking about, Dan Fouts?

This pass defense is allowing less than 10 yards per completion, which is practically unheard of (according to www.profootballreference.com). It certainly would be a team record if that trend continues. They are also allowing less than 200 yards per game, and that includes probably about 250 yards in garbage-time defense against Green Bay, San Francisco and Seattle.

by DavidH22 on Dec 20, 2008 5:44 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's great to see all the former Dallas players

At the Texas Stadium….

Cowboys fan since 1978.. I was 3 years old

by Mullin on Dec 20, 2008 5:53 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Except for when Emmitt always shows up and something completely stupid. How is he making a living in front of a microphone? I mean seriously.

He said earlier that the Cowboys franchise has been around for 30 something years. Umm Emmitt, Landray damn near coached this franchise for 30 years. Good to know that you know the history of the franchise you spent your career with.

by Chris Hanes on Dec 20, 2008 6:08 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

pacman pick

or a scandrick pick
im calling it

Superbowl or Bust?

by MrMinority on Dec 20, 2008 6:05 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Roger...

doesn’t look very happy about having make-up applied to his face.

by jkdallas on Dec 20, 2008 6:07 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I really want to see the Cowboys jump on with a quick score..or even two

If we can get up on this Baltimore team early, the atmosphere will take over and the rookie QB will have a hard time getting back into it. Not to mention…if our D has a chance to pin their ears back…look out.

by DorneyDave on Dec 20, 2008 6:10 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

totally agree...

We need to send off Texas Stadium with a party – type game… I want the announcers to be saying things like “wow, we haven’t seen the Cowboys put it all together like this …”

Duane Thomas, Calvin Hill, Tony Dorsett, Emmitt Smith ... and now BOTH Marion Barber and Felix Jones

by DalaiLuke on Dec 20, 2008 6:15 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we just need to not make big mistakes...

our D will hold their offense in check.. we need to play the field position game and make them pay..

A Cowboy fan from Dallas residing in enemy terretory since 1990..

by Jtiner09 on Dec 20, 2008 6:19 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And yes, me being in this game thread is my way of checking on the game. ;-)

Wish me safety, the Seattle Area could get 3-8 inches of snow and freezing rain.

Good luck to the Cowboys, I think they will win this game.

Here is what concerns me though….

Romo is already hurt and the Ravens D is great. Cory Proctor is a turnstile and Romo will basically be running for his life…..UNLESS (!!!) Jason Garrett counters the blitz with a heavy dose of Tashard Choice screen passes and draw plays. The defense should eat up Joe Flacco, but the Ravens may end up eating Romo…..

I disagree with Terry, I think the running game will be the difference in this game and the Cowboys have a better weapon.

Cowboys 17 Ravens 6

Seattle, the world's worst sports city.

by SSreporters on Dec 20, 2008 6:22 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Schefter just brought up the possibility of Ray Lewis going to the Cowboys.

If that actually came to pass, what’s the over/under on how long it would take BSPN to run one of those nifty little fannation polls on whether or not Ray Lewis will shank T.O. in the shower?

by MadMick on Dec 20, 2008 6:24 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Where can I see the game on-line free?

Anyone know where I can see the game on-line free. Working late tonight with no tv access. This is killing me!!!

by foladeka on Dec 20, 2008 6:27 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A hard fought one like the last two...

I expect this to be a defensive struggle for the first half, much like the last 2 games we’ve played. In the 3rd Q, we’ll pull ahead by double digits and seal the deal in the 4th. Balt is game, but they don;t have the horses to keep up.

Dallas 24 – 13.

The caveat is that the Ravens don’t get a defensive or ST TD. This game gets real tight real fast under those circumstances.

by Ridgelake on Dec 20, 2008 6:27 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we're so close

to gametime
i need to suspend drinking until the game actually starts

Superbowl or Bust?

by MrMinority on Dec 20, 2008 6:30 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A Julius Jones Update

He’s essentially been benched for reasons unknown, likely because Mo Morris is playing for a contract, but his 1,000 yard season he was on pace for took a dramatic nosedive.

In the Rams game he completely got destroyed trying to block a blitzing player and Seneca Wallace fumbled.

I am patient though, if he can’t perform well next year though I think “I told you so” quotes are due. ;-)

Seattle, the world's worst sports city.

by SSreporters on Dec 20, 2008 6:34 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Romo's ablility

To take hits will be key tonight.. I know the Ravens are going to try to tear that back up..

"If you see me up in the mountains with a lion, I ain't lyin
don't help me, help the mountain lion"

by Wmillion on Dec 20, 2008 6:37 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

haha

i know
it’ll be weird, either annoying or cool
lets just hope we go up early and get t. choice involved and crayton/austin some passes to open things up for t.o. and roy e
also a pacman good return would be nice, maybe even a pick
but im calling a scandrick pick for this game
its overdue

Superbowl or Bust?

by MrMinority on Dec 20, 2008 6:40 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

also

holland is out and procter is in
that could be huge if we end up losing

Superbowl or Bust?

by MrMinority on Dec 20, 2008 6:42 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

haha

You’ve been calling a scandrick pick for a while.

by AirforceBat on Dec 20, 2008 6:51 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fact of the matter is they're 9-5, same record as the Cowboys

So obviously it’s more than Flacco they need to stop. Flacco seems pretty easy to stop.

Seattle, the world's worst sports city.

by SSreporters on Dec 20, 2008 6:53 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here's a hint; their defense is really good.

Flacco’s had a couple of brilliant games and Mason and Clayton are infinitely better than some of the jabronie receiving corps out there. But I don’t see the dominant running back or receiver that can overcome a stinker from Flacco unless Romo is just as horrible.

by MadMick on Dec 20, 2008 7:01 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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