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Let's Talk Numbers Part I: Wade Phillips' defense

Leading up to the heavyweight fight against Pittsburgh, Let's Talk Numbers will be presented in two parts this week. Part II will be up Friday morning.

In this week's first installment of Let's Talk Numbers, we determine if the Dallas Cowboys' defense has improved after the debacle in St. Louis. Since Wade Phillips took a more "active" role in the defensive playcalling against Tampa Bay, the Cowboys are 4-1 and the defense has started to show signs of just how good they could be.

Are things as good as they seem, or is the defense performing at the same level as they were to start the season? Follow the jump to find out.

Star-divide

 

The Dallas Cowboys' defense is an enigma.

Since having the league's number one defense in 2003, the Cowboys have ranked 16th, 10th, 13th and 9th in the years since. When Bill Parcells was hired as head coach he immediately started to mold the defense into his version of the 3-4 defense, and the transition has not gone as smoothly as hoped. Teams that run successful 3-4 defenses (such as Pittsburgh) have had years to build around the scheme and determine personnel decisions to best fit their goals. The Cowboys are on just their fifth season as a 3-4 defense and despite having some of the top defensive players in the league, have consistently underperformed.

When Wade Phillips was hired prior to the 2007 season, a big part of his allure was his track record with the 3-4 defense. His defenses in San Diego were some the most aggressive in the league, helping propel the Chargers to a 14-2 record in 2006. As coach of the Cowboys, it was hoped that he would be able to fix an ailing 3-4 defense that had been a disappointment the past few seasons. He promised a more aggressive, "one-gap" style of defense that would better utilize the playmakers on the team. More importantly, his defenses would cut down on the big plays that plagued the Cowboys' defenses of the past.

For the most part, the changes in 2007 worked. After a transitional period to start the season, the Cowboys defense allowed less big plays and half as many 40+ yard pass plays as they did in 2006. The Cowboys also raised their sack total from 34 to 46. Yet things still weren't as good as hoped, with the Cowboys finishing with the 9th ranked defense in the league. Most concerning was how the Cowboys were susceptible to quick scoring drives with big chunks of yards allowed in the passing game at a time.

In 2008 came more promises of an improved pass defense, with the Cowboys drafting two ranked cornerbacks in Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick and trading for Adam Jones. The Cowboys also added All-Pro linebacker Zach Thomas and nose tackle Jay Ratliff was poised to anchor a dominant defense.

Unfortunately things didn't go as planned. Injuries to key players were a major factor, but at times the defense seemed to play without emotion or intensity. A Cowboys defense built on aggressiveness had lost it's punch. The whole thing threatened to fall completely apart following a 34-14 loss to St. Louis. Players were frustrated with the schemes and playcalling of defensive coordinator Brian Stewart, and something needed to be done to avoid complete disaster.

Following the loss to the Rams Wade Phillips announced he would be taking a more personal involvement in the defense, in particular the playcalling throughout the game. That week the Cowboys beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-9 on the back of the Cowboys best defensive effort in years. Since Wade Phillips stepped in, the team is 4-1 and playing with a newfound level of intensity and emotion. But how much have things changed? Let's take a look at the defensive numbers before and after Wade's intervention:

T.O.P. Pass Att/G Net Pass Yds/G Avg Rush Att/G Rush Yds/G Avg Sacks/G TO/G R.Z. %
First 7 games 29:39 34.14 204.5 5.9 25.2 102.1 4.03 3.0 1.0 54%
Last 5 games 29:54 39.0 197.6 5.07 22.0 89.4 4.06 4.0 1.8 42%

At first glance the numbers seem fairly similar, but with a closer look there are several small differences that really stand out and show just how different the Cowboys defense has been playing lately.

Pass defense: I decided to use net yards passing and average yards allowed per dropback to truly gauge the newly aggressive defense and how it has improved the pass defense. Despite teams throwing five more times per game, the Cowboys are allowing less yards passing and nearly a full yard less per pass play. They are also averaging four sacks per game and while the number itself is not much higher than it was, the difference is in who is getting the sacks. Bradie James has four sacks in the past five games, while having just 5.5 sacks in his career prior to 2008.

James hasn't been blitzing more since Wade stepped in, but the type of blitzes he's been involved in has changed as well as when he blitzes. This has allowed him to come free to the quarterback more often than in the past, and with the offense already accounting for DeMarcus Ware and company, James has made the most of his opportunity.

The chief complaint earlier in the season was how far off receivers the Cowboys' cornerbacks were playing, as well as the amount of zone coverage the defense was running. This was allowing teams to consistently find holes in the zone,and while the Cowboys weren't giving up big plays, offenses were gashing the Cowboys with intermediate and short routes.

After Wade Phillips' intervention the Cowboys started playing more press coverage, especially after Terence Newman returned from injury. This was a direct result of the Cowboys' pass rush stepping up, allowing the coaches to have more faith in the secondary. This combined to give the team a newfound self-confidence, and it showed on the field.

Turnovers and red zone efficiency. The most alarming part of the Cowboys' defensive play to start the season was the lack of turnovers, most notably interceptions. Since Wade Phillips aggressive defense stepped up, the Cowboys have nearly doubled the amount of turnovers forced per game. The team still only has one defensive touchdown this season, but if the cowboys continue to force two turnovers a game then the path to the playoffs will be just a bit easier.

The biggest change has been in the Cowboys play in the red zone. Despite a 5/5 debacle against the Giants, the Cowboys have improved their red zone efficiency by 12%. Goal line stands have come at the most important times as well, not allowing the team to get behind early when things could have gotten out of hand in a hurry.

Bottom line: The final numbers aren't perfect and are affected by factors outside the defense. When Romo was out the offense consistently put the defense in a bad position. With the return of the star quarterback the entire team was infused with a newfound energy and emotion, not just the offense. It's tough to tell just how much Wade Phillips' influence has changed the play of the defense or if the return of Romo sparked the play.

Here are the numbers that matter most. Before the Tampa Bay game the Cowboys defense was allowing 22 points per game. Since then the defense has given up 17 a game, a five point swing. That is what is most significant and the only numbers that count. Whatever Wade Phillips has done, no matter how much or how little, he needs to continue doing it.

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments |

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I'm defintely a lot happier with the D

But I’m staying out of this one until I see a good performance against a really good team. Like this weekend.

by sublimezg on Dec 3, 2008 8:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

The defense hasn't changed that much

the reason they seem to be playing better is that they aren’t on the filed 90% of the time like they were when Romo was out. If the defense only plays half of the game, they can be very effective.

Romo is the difference, he makes all aspects of the team much better, including the defense. The guys want to play hard for him, the same can’t be said about Johnson who they had no faith in. Why should a defensive player bust his azz every single minute of the game when he knows the offense can’t score and constantly puts them in bad field position.

With Romo, they know they will be in every game and he’ll give them a chance to win each game and thats something to play really hard for.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Dec 3, 2008 8:53 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

4 games other than the Giants...

The Giants game is the anomaly during Wade’s 5 games. I don’t know if the D tried any less hard during that game, but the O never gave them a chance constantly turning the ball over, putting the D on the field in bad positions and for extended period. After the first drive in which the Giants scored a TD, the D put up a good fight for a while, but they were just not able to keep it up with the O not holding up their end at all.

But with the Bucs, the difference was that Brad was able to avoid turnovers and at least move the ball enough to give the D a chance to rest.

I think it would be interesting to see the stats from those 4 games without the Giants game in the mix. If you just look at the other four games, I think you see a huge improvement from earlier in the season. I know that’s kind of cherry picking the data, but it’s hard to get a true measure of the D when the O puts them in bad positions over and over in a game.

by scottmaui on Dec 3, 2008 9:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I disgaree

I think it was crystal clear in the Giants game that the defense was simply on the field way too long and just wore out as a result.

There is no possible way any defense in the league can continuously stop GMen’s offense, when the offense goes 3 and out every single series.

Romo plays in that game, the defense plays better and we’re very competitive.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Dec 3, 2008 9:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

uhhh

that is what I said…

by scottmaui on Dec 3, 2008 11:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The defense gets off the field on 3rd down a lot better now and that’s not just because of Romo.

Let’s not forget that Romo was there earlier in the season when the defense could not stop the Eagles to save their lives. Romo was also there against Arizona, when the Cowboys were leading 14-7 and they had the Cardinals in a 3rd and 17 situation, deep in there own territory. They still gave up the 1st down and Cardinals sustained the drive to tie the game. And let’s not forget that Romo was not there when the defense held the Bucs to just 9 points.

Now while it’s true that the Romo helps to put the defense into better situations, the defense has improved itself by playing more press coverage and blitzing better. To win the next four games in a row the defense will have to play at there highest level; Romo alone will not be enough.

by gee-roj on Dec 3, 2008 10:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pittsburgh will be first test of 'improved' defense

I was surprised that the numbers did not show a bigger improvement, because watching the team you get the impression that they are playing a lot better, but I agree with Terry. Seems like Romo’s return alone could count for the difference in statistics. Let’s see against Pittsburgh

by Gibster121 on Dec 3, 2008 9:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Pittsburgh offense

Doesn’t really put up a lot of numbers either to tell you the truth. They’re much more ball control and they don’t normally score a lot unless they get some turnovers.

The real test for this defense will come from the Giants on 12/14. The Giants have the most balanced attack in football and can win by either airing it out, or grinding it out.

It’s the offense that will face its toughest challenge this weekend.

by gee-roj on Dec 3, 2008 10:14 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think those statistics tell the whole story.

The defense has been a lot more dominating than those numbers would lead you to believe, especially if you discount the Giants game. Most of the yardage given up over the last two games has been in garbage time. SF and SEA didn’t do much offensively until the game was already out of hand. As far as rushing yards, we held two of the best backs in the league, Portis and Gore, to 65 and 26 yards respectively. Our red zone defense has been unreal. We’ve been able to hold teams to FG’s instead of touchdowns, which has especially been huge early in games, because this team sometimes starts slow, and definitely plays better when they can get ahead early.

by Mandmeisterx on Dec 3, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Idk what to think about it, Basically it's just numbers!

I will say that I think the defense is playing better; But, like Terry I think the return of Romo has a lot to do with it. just look at the numbers: more passes, less rushes. Teams know they need to score more or catch up with Romo there. Also you have to look a the teams in that picture, other than the Giants they were pretty anemic offences. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great offense, but they do have a defense that can turn the ball over and win field position battles.

I don’t know how this game will play out, but I know it will be a great game!

by bad knees on Dec 3, 2008 10:18 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Pittsburg is the test of this team. If this Cowboys team is going to being playing for a Super Bowl, we’re going to see signs of it Sunday. If this team is going to get on a December roll for a change, we’ll see it against Pittsburg.

Roy Williams is still my pick for unexpected dominant offensive performance.

by AustonianAggie on Dec 3, 2008 10:42 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed totally...

I think Roy is going to have some very nice matchups.

by AirforceBat on Dec 3, 2008 11:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Seven sacks on Big Ben

I think our Dline will have a field day against the Steelers. One the other hand, Romo had better be very careful throwing in the middle of the field. If Romo can stay on target, and our D line does what I think it will, we win 31,17.

By the way NorCal Cowboy fans. KTXL Channel 40 has the Cowboys/Steelers, Sunday, at 1:00pm PST. Go Cowboys!!!!!!!!!!!!

by CowboyMan on Dec 3, 2008 12:00 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

They should

have a lot of sacks on Big Ben. This game is going to come down to the o-line play of both teams

by Burt88 on Dec 3, 2008 2:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

7

my thoughts exactly

Channeling my inner Pacman.

by Carl Shelton (GloryDayz88) on Dec 3, 2008 7:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

No statistical wrangling in the world helps explain the improvement like using your own two eyes…

This D has played tremendously better. More pressure. Fewer points. More turnovers. More wins.

When in doubt, just use the (Ellis) smell test…

Res firma mitescere nescit

by Fighter15 on Dec 3, 2008 5:16 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Brandon's not using it to explain the improvement

He’s showing you statistical proof that confirms what we’ve all been seeing. The defense has been playing a lot better.

T-New, shutting down WR's for Dallas since 2003

by APerfectStar on Dec 4, 2008 12:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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