Let's Talk Numbers Part II: Just how good is the Steeler's defense?
Its the game of the week: the Dallas Cowboys versus the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup of classic rivals in poor conditions. There are many storylines surrounding the game between field conditions, DeMarcus Ware's and Marion Barber's status, the weather.....field conditions. Rafael has a excellent piece below detailing the under appreciated matchup of the Cowboys' defense and the Steeler's very vanilla offense. Yet the main storyline heading into the game has centered around whether the Cowboys' offense can solve this all-time great Steelers defense, led by James Harrison and Troy Polamalu.
But just how good is this vaunted Steelers defense? Are their incredible numbers a result of great play or just not playing good offenses? How do they rank historically?
Follow the jump to find out.
When I set out on this endeavor of analysing the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense, I was unsure of what I would find. I am always skeptical when the media really gets behind a certain team's defense or offense, especially when I hear the same stat over and over and over again. Is there only one stat that proves just how great an offense or defense can be? If it's so great, why aren't their a whole bunch of numbers to back up everyone's point? We all know what they say about stats and numbers: lies, dang lies and statistics. Numbers can be used in any way to prove a point, skewed in the direction you want them to go. That's why when I present stats here in this forum I do my best to show the whole story, and then decide what those numbers have helped prove.
In this case, the media has not stopped bringing up the fact that the Steelers defense has not allowed over 300 total yards yet this season. At first glance, this is an amazing stat and leaves you wondering just how in the heck can Dallas crack such a tough shell. I see those numbers and it makes me think about what factors have led to such an incredible stat. Does the defense cause a whole bunch of turnovers that cuts drives short? Does the offense do a great job of controlling the clock to keep the defense off the field, maximizing the performance when they are? Does the defense focus on shutting down one aspect of an offense and then dare to be beat with the other? All of these questions I wanted answers to when I started my statistical journey into the vortex that is the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
The Steelers defense wins games, not the offense. Right?
The Pittsburgh offense ranks 24th in the league. They aren't explosive and they give up way too many sacks (although they have become better at protecting Roethlisberger lately). Yet despite having a very simple offense the team is 9-3 and is poised to win the AFC North.
So that leads us to believe that the defense has a high rate of turnovers, scores defensive points and helps the offense by putting additional points on the board. Right?
| Avg. Pts margin | Turnovers/G | Avg. Pts off TO | Total def pts | Sacks/G |
| + 9.7 | 1.66 | 5.6/Game | 9 | 3.5 |
A couple of things surprised me about these numbers. First of all was the low defensive points. Usually when a team has a top ranked, highly touted defense you a high number of purely defensive touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles returned for a touchdown. For the season the Steelers have a safety and a fumble return and that is it. Now, that is certainly not bad but over half the teams in the league have returned an interception for a touchdown. Very interesting for the league's best pass defense.
The second thing that stood out to me was points the offense scored that came directly from turnovers. By listening to the media, and fans alike, you would think that the Pittsburgh defense is a turnover machine. A lot of that hype has stemmed recently from all of the turnovers forced against New England. Yet the Steelers average 1.66 turnovers forced per game (the Cowboys average 1.33), putting them somewhere in the middle of the pack league wide. The bad news for the Cowboys is that the Steelers offense makes use of every single turnover; only once this season have the Steelers failed to score following an interception or a fumble. In games they have won, the Steelers average nearly seven points off turnovers a game. Conversely, in games they lost they averaged just two.
So the Steelers' defense doesn't score often and doesn't force a ton of turnovers. So what is that makes them so great?
The Steelers pass defense is the best in the league.
Much has been said about how quarterbacks with great numbers and good ratings have gone up against Pittsburgh and come out of it with their stats hurting. The media is always quick to point out how Philip Rivers and Jason Campbell had league leading numbers before their games against Pittsburgh, yet had horrendous games. What they fail to mention is what happens when accurate, poised and experienced quarterbacks face the defense. What happens? They lose.
| Comp/G | Att/G | Pct. | Yards/G | Avg. | TD/G | Int/G | Sacks/G | Rating | |
| 9 Wins | 19.6 | 34.2 | 57% | 180.9 | 5.2 | 0.55 | 0.82 | 4.11 | 63.9 |
| 3 Losses | 21.3 | 35.6 | 60.0% | 211.7 | 5.9 | 1.66 | 0.33 | 1.66 | 87.9 |
Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb and Eli Manning all won against the Steelers and they did it by being as efficient as possible. While the Steelers do get a bunch of turnovers, where they are most succesful at hurting quarterbacks is through pressure in the pocket. We all know about Harrison and Woodley and that Pittsburgh has the most sacks in the league. The key for teams that have won has obviously been the fact that they were able to protect their QB. Even though these quarterbacks were more succesful than others, they still were unable to put up big numbers. The key was not allowing drive ending sacks or turnovers, which as we stated above puts their offense in prime position to advantage and score.
Scoring: The Steelers defense does not allow points, but how good are the teams theyve faced?
| Rec | Off rank | Off Avg | Off pts | Def rank | Def avg | Pts Alwd | Result | |
| Houston | 5-7 | 15th | 24.1 | 17 | 24th | 22.0 | 38 | W |
| Cleveland | 4-8 | 27th | 18.8 | 6 | 9th | 21.5 | 10 | W |
| Philladelphia | 6-5-1 | 6th | 27.6 | 15 | 10th | 23.0 | 6 | L |
| Baltimore | 8-4 | 10th | 27.5 | 20 | 3rd | 15.2 | 23 | W |
| Jacksonville | 4-8 | 24th | 20.0 | 21 | 20th | 22.2 | 26 | W |
| Cincinatti | 1-10-1 | 32nd | 15.1 | 10.0 | 24th | 24.7 | 32.5 | W, W |
| NY Giants | 11-1 | 1st | 30.0 | 21.0 | 5th | 20.2 | 14 | L |
| Washington | 7-5 | 28th | 23.8 | 6 | 6th | 18.1 | 23 | W |
| Indianapolis | 8-4 | 22nd | 21.2 | 24 | 11th | 20.1 | 20 | L |
| San Diego | 5-8 | 12th | 26.5 | 10 | 21st | 26.6 | 11 | W |
| New England | 7-5 | 18th | 24.3 | 10 | 12th | 20.2 | 33 | W |
Quick explanation of this table: the offensive and defensive scoring averages are the average score teams have scored and allowed when NOT facing Pittsburgh. This gives a good luck at how teams perform relative to what happens in the game against the Steelers.
There's no doubting that the defense's stength is not allowing teams to score, at all. Only twice this season has a team scored more points against the Steelers than they averaged against the rest of their schedule. More importantly however, is that while the Steelers offense may not be flashy, over half the time they score more points than opponents allow on average against other teams
The Steelers are 3-3 when facing teams with winning records. Two wins have come against bottom dwelling Cincinatti. More importantly though, the Steelers defense has faced just three offenses ranked in the top ten. They lost to two of them. This isn't to say that the Steelers should be sorry for playing in a division with two bad teams; you can only play who the NFL puts on your schedule. But the point remains that when facing successful teams with high ranked offenses and winning records, it isn't a given that the Steelers will win.
How do they rank historically?
This year the Steelers' defense is allowing 238.0 yards per game, with average of 3.9 yards per play. Most impressive is the fact they are allowing just 3.1 yards per rush. That type of run defense allows the team to focus on stopping the pass, without having to stack the box. But how do these numbers compare to some of the great defenses of the past?
The 1985 Bears allowed 4.4 per play, and over 6 yards per pass, yet just 12 points a game. The 2002 Bucs were stingy on the scoreboard as well, giving up 12.2 a game. Yet the only defense that comes close to this year's is the Steel Curtain defense of the 1976 Steelers: 3.8 yards per play, 5.8 per pass, 3.2 per run.
If the 2008 Steelers continue like they have so far, especially against the Cowboys, then they could go down as one of the greatest defenses ever. Allowing these numbers in a day and age when offenses are scoring at historical rates, allowing under four per play is...well....I don't what the word is......outstanding just doesn't seem to fit.
Bottom line: Can the Cowboys beat this all-time great defense?
Of course, any team can win on any given Sunday.
Yet these numbers show that the Cowboys have a GREAT chance of doing just enough to win. The Steelers have yet to face an offense as prolific as the Cowboys (I know the Giants rank No. 1 in the league, but Tony Romo trumps all), with as many weapons as the Cowboys have on their side of the ball. When the Steelers have faced a quarterback who throws accurately downfield and avoids the rush, then the team struggles to win.
This Steelers team relies on its' defense to set up the offense, to put them in good position to win. The offense itself won't score a bunch of points, but if the defense is able to constantly hold opponents back and turn field position, then the Steelers are adept at taking advantage.
They, like always is limiting mistakes and turnovers. Yet this is even more important playing against a defense like this. No bad penalties, no forced throws. If the Cowboys are able to consistently move the ball without turning it over, then anything more than 17 points should be more than enough to win this game.
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35 comments
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Comments
First!
I hope your point about facing quality,poised qb’s comes to fruition this weekend. They have only played three offenses that can come close to ours and all three have beaten them. Lets hear it for consistency.
Don't believe everything you think.
by stoproyce on Dec 5, 2008 10:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Accurate, poised, experienced. . .
A Cowboys fan’s description of Donovan McNabb? Wow. Steelers lost that game because they couldn’t move the ball on offense, plain and simple. The other two losses are attributed to costly turnovers and short fields for opposing offenses. Hell, the NYG game could’ve been the defenses BEST game of the year. New York could’ve put 40+ on the Steelers with the opportunities they had.
If you are looking for a common thread among Steeler losses, its bad play from Big Ben. Easily his worst 3 games of the year were the 3 losses. Get Ben out of rhythm and turning the ball over, and you can win this game.
by The IC Lion on Dec 5, 2008 10:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As a Cowboys fan, I have seen what Donovan McNabb can do when he is healthy and confident.
Despite his shortcomings in the Super Bowl, McNabb did lead his team to four straight NFC Championships. He is isn’t a Ryan Fitzpatrick.
And I do agree about the Giants game. The defense played tremendously, but Eli didn’t make the mistakes that the team has thrived on to win. That was one of the major differences as well.
by Brandon Worley on Dec 5, 2008 10:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cowboys REAL Key to Beating the Steeler D
Agreed about Eli. . . I just question the games you picked to prove the point that a good QB can solve this D. Who’s the second highest rated passer in the league and how’d he do? If you are trying to say that an experienced QB is the key, I’d argue that Rivers has more experience than Romo.
The key to this game for the ‘Boys offense (aside from pass protection, which is a necessity) isn’t Romo or Barber, its Witten. How do the Steelers cover him? They dont want to use Harrison or Woodley because they are the main pass rushers. Farrior and Foote are a step slower (and older) than Harr/Wood and may not keep up with Witten. If that’s the case, you pull Troy/Clark off of a double team and open up Owens/Williams. If Witten can find room in the Steelers zone pass D early, it could open up the whole passing attack.
by The IC Lion on Dec 5, 2008 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree about Witten...but don't forget about Bennett and Crayton.
Also, I didn’t leave any games out. I used every game in my numbers.
The biggest dropoff the Steelers forced was Rivers, correct. Jason Campbell also had a bad day. My point was that the Media does nothing but point out those two facts….yet there were three other quarterbacks that limited mistakes and were able manage the game enough to win.
I’m not saying its a foregone conclusion, I’m just saying it’s possible with a QB like Romo.
by Brandon Worley on Dec 5, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 IC Lion, THREE WORDS
Witten…Seam…Route
by AikmanNailedMySis on Dec 5, 2008 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wow
I really hope you are not a cowboy fan or i would have to give you credit for doing your research and knowing what you are talking about.
You took the words out of my mouth because it is the truth. All year we have played great defense and the statistics are actually worse because of the play of Big Ben. That’s just scary imagining those defensive numbers being any better.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 5, 2008 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you mean if they consistently move the ball
WITHOUT turning it over, they have a great chance to win.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Dec 5, 2008 10:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
What a great post
Brandon, good leg work. I will have to share these numbers with my Steeler fan neighbor before the game! We CAN and WILL win this game, it all starts on the line of scrimmage. Plus, we need it more than they do.
When I get worried is when I think the team is NOT under pressure to win.
I have noticed a new resurgence in Cowboy hating in 2007, which can only mean one thing- We're back.
by nspirals on Dec 5, 2008 10:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Great Article, Brandon
Man, the stuff cranked out by this staff is just superior. Grizz has his fantastic film analysis, Raf has excellent research pieces, your in depth statistical studies are outstanding, and Tuna Helper posts several excellent pieces as well.
It’s ironic how much the media hates the Cowboys, and how much their fans are derided, but you don’t see an enlightened discussion about the game anywhere else on the web.
And your point here is very well taken about success against the Steelers defense. The fact that three of the best QBs in the league had such good success can’t be overlooked. Romo is in the category, and barring turnovers, I think we’ll win. It won’t be easy, I expect it to be a hard hitting, scratch and claw game. But all things being equal, I think we will play well and have a very good chance to win.
by kindablue on Dec 5, 2008 11:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Jerry saying Anderson will be called up(perDMN).The question is
Who gets cut so he can come up? I am at a loss.
Don't believe everything you think.
by stoproyce on Dec 5, 2008 11:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Coleman?
And if you mean him, it has to be Butler.
by Mandmeisterx on Dec 5, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
god i am slow this morning i totally meant
Coleman. My bad.
Don't believe everything you think.
by stoproyce on Dec 5, 2008 12:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting...
so when the Steelers play a top-tier QB, they lose, even though they hold said QB relatively in check. When they play a 2nd-tier QB like Rivers, they win, but barely. And when they play teams with average QBs, they win decisively.
I like our chances even more. :)
by DannyWhite on Dec 5, 2008 1:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Flawed way of looking at it
The fact that you had to say “even though they hold said QB relatively in check” should tell you that this isn’t a very good way to look at it. Like I said, the common thread in the Steelers losses is Big Ben’s play, not the play of the opposing QB
by The IC Lion on Dec 5, 2008 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
The Steelers are able to force lesser QBs into fatal mistakes, which enables them to win games. Against the elite QBs, they haven’t been able to do that, even though they have been able to hold those QBs to below-average performances.
The Steelers D is good. Maybe all-time good. But that offense looks to be the weak link. Apparently, it needs the D to give it a short field (due to sacks/turnovers) for it to have any chance of being effective. Against the bad teams/lesser QBs, the D is able to put the O into consistently good position. Against the better QBs, it isn’t able to do so as often.
We saw it last week – the Steelers O did absolutely nothing until the D/ST gifted it with short field after short field. And even then it could only score TDs about half the time against a Pats D that is really suffering.
by DannyWhite on Dec 5, 2008 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha. . .I think its the complete opposite (or inverse??)
Against bad teams, the Steelers O doesn’t put the defense in bad situations. Against good teams they’ve lost to, the Steelers O has put the defense in bad situations. Opposing QB play hasn’t been the difference. The Steelers 3 losses include 12 scoring drives from the opposing team. 6 of those drives (HALF) have started inside the Steelers 32 yd line. That’s the Steelers O screwing over its defense.
Cassel aside, there hasnt been “fatal mistakes” from all opposing QBs against the Steelers. Flacco and Garrad both had OK games and Pittsburgh only scored 3 points off of Rivers turnovers. Teams just haven’t been able to move the ball the length of the field consistently against the D.
This isn’t a defense that thrives off turnovers
by The IC Lion on Dec 5, 2008 2:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
thank you
People, if you do not know watch the games then you have no idea how good the steelers D is. The patriots did nothing on offense really the whole game. The only touchdown came off of an INT and is exactly what The IC Lion has been trying to tell you. Rivers is a great QB not a 2nd tier. He is probably on the same level as Romo is about now. He is putting up great numbers on an underachieving team.
This Defense is FOR REAL. there is no trend in the quarterbacks who are playing against Pittsburgh in the losses except Big Ben. He threw 2+ INTS in all of those losses, and they avg. 3.67 turnovers a game in those losses (including safeties) so maybe you can say when you give a good QB about 4 extra possessions on a short field then yeah they do can do good and score and possibly win the game. But the fact is that Big Ben took away 3 possessions on average in those 3 losses.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 5, 2008 5:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ben is ben
So there is a good chance he will turn the ball over..
"If you see me up in the mountains with a lion, I ain't lyin
don't help me, help the mountain lion"
by Wmillion on Dec 5, 2008 5:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rivers 2nd tier?
I’ll admit the guy has always struck me as sort of a dumb hick but the guy’s having an excellent season (6 3-TD pass games) and for his career has exactly twice as many TD’s as INT’s. While that team as a whole has pathetically underachieved, you can’t put that entirely on Rivers as LT has hit a brick wall resulting in the Chargers ranking 26th in rushing. Indeed that 2004 1st round class of QB’s is turning out to be the rare quality group of passers and we still have no idea who will be the best out of Eli, Big Ben, and Rivers. You could put Rivers on the Giants right now and they wouldn’t skip a beat. The guy is an elite QB despite the abysmal failure of a season the Chargers are having.
Also, I put the Steelers/Eagles game under the category of the Steelers being so pathetic offensively that they had about as much chance of winning against an elite team as the Cowboys did with Brad Johnson at the helm. McNabb really wasn’t as much of a factor as the Steelers offensive line being pushed around like punks.
Interesting finds nonetheless, BW. The game really hinges on three things (in no particular order):
A.) The weather (and a snowy surface might even make Romo more slippery and harder to corral)
B.) Flozell not playing like a cheap motel, and
C.) Forcing Big Ben into mistakes.
It goes without saying, of course, that Romo can’t get goofy with the football either.
I’m every bit as hyped for this one as the games against the Colts and Patsies the last two seasons. Hurry up and get here already, Sunday.
by MadMick on Dec 5, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Butler cut Coleman active.
Don't believe everything you think.
by stoproyce on Dec 5, 2008 1:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's all about Romo
Great piece.
As always with Dallas games, the key will be Romo. If he is fumbling, throwing picks and in general not taking care of the ball, then yes, Pitt wins. However, if he is on his game, then I think the Dallas offense goes for 350 yards and 28-31 points. I know it sounds homerish, but I truly believe that. This Pitt defense is very good and I have a healthy respect for it, but the Dallas offense is unstoppable when Romo is on. I don’t even think the Pitt defense is necessarily the key: I’ve watched Romo play spectacularly when under enormous pressure and also play inexplicably like crap when he isn’t.
If the Pitt defense brings its A game and the Dallas offense brings its A game, advantage Dallas. Good receivers can carve up the Pitt secondary and we have the best set in the league. Nobody back there for Pitt can cover TO or RW and for that matter, nobody on that defense can cover Witten. Romo simply needs to get them the ball consistently and it will be off to the races. Absent a wintry mix of sleet, wind, etc I see a Dallas offense with an opportunity to challenge league-wide perceptions about this Pitt defense.
And before the Pitt fans jump down my throat, be advised of two things: (1) this is just my opinion (you know, everyone’s got one) and (2) Pitt is my second favorite team. I watch nearly all their games and have traveled from WI to attended seven – five in cold weather, including the Jets playoff game a few years back. So I understand the impact of cold weather at Heinz Field.
My prediction:
Without weather as a factor: Dallas 31, Pitt 24
With weather as a factor: Pitt 17, Dallas 13
OK, now jump down my throat.
by Cowboy Louie on Dec 5, 2008 2:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Romo's TD/INT ratio is very close to 3/1 this season.
His big lapses were his fumble fest against the Cards and his mini-breakdown against the Eagles where he single-handedly let them back in the game. Purely from a standpoint of throwing the ball, Romo hasn’t had a real stinker this season; which actually might be a red flag considering this will be his first game against a LeBeau defense and that the weather and playing surface will most likely suck to boot.
I agree with you about the weather. I don’t know what the without weather prediction really means though because weather is definitely going to be at least somewhat of a factor. Even with fair early December northeast weather, I wouldn’t go quite as high as 31-27; I’d still peg the score as being somewhere around 24-17, Cowboys.
The Steelers are your 2nd favorite team? That’s like a Celtics fans whose 2nd favorite team is the Lakers. That’s all kinds of sacreligious, bra.
by MadMick on Dec 5, 2008 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no wonder why you think their fans are cool
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Dec 5, 2008 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Same weather
on both teams. Same field, same wind, same temperature. It is a myth to think the Steelers get a huge advantage because of the weather. Romo said cold weather is no big deal to a Wisconsin kid anyhow. Our RBs have to run on the same field as theirs. Our WRs and kickers deal with the same wind as theirs.
Crowd noise will be a bigger factor than weather, and the Terrible Towel wavers might just pump up the Boys.
Keep doing what you been doing, keep getting what you been getting.
by OskieOskie on Dec 5, 2008 4:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It it an advantage for the Steelers
because they don’t need a passing game to win games, actually its the weakest part of their game.
Cowboys, however, need their pasing game to be effective to win games.
If the wind is bad, its a huge Pittsburgh advantage.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Dec 5, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
actually
the passing isn’t the weakest part. The running game is not the same as it has been and actually the passing game i believe is what has been helping us win games. This offense does not get credit for being good and the fact is, is that they are damn good. We don’t like to put up big numbers. When we have any kind of lead in the second half we usually just sit on it and get conservative for a little bit. We just recently got FWP back and got the offensive line playing good and have been scoring a lot more. Of course, we had a lot of turnovers in the NE game and played Cin, but i mean its the same for you guys who have beaten SF, Seattle recently.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 5, 2008 5:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The difference is....
As recently as three weeks ago, the Steelers’ offense only managed 9 points against a very average and inconsistent Chargers defense that has given up some huge point totals this season. On the other hand, with Romo in the line-up, the Cowboys have only been held under 24 points once all season.
I’m certainly not saying the Cowboys are going to roll the ball out and put up 24 points at will against the Steelers hellacious defense, but to compare a struggling Steelers offense to the Cowboys offense is a joke. The Cowboys offense has only struggled with that elderly hump Brad Johnson at the helm. Ask yourself how would the Steelers offense do with present day Terry Bradshaw at the helm because I assure you he’s got just as much juice left in his arm as Brad Johnson.
by MadMick on Dec 5, 2008 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
actually
it should have been 13 but they called a td back that they later said was a bad call
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 5, 2008 9:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That Settles It
It’s unanimous among the Steelers fans: They are a really good team. I know those 13 points they might have scored against a mediocre San Diego defense has convinced me they are “damn good”.
Steelers have struggled against good pass rush teams. Dallas has the second most sacks in the league. We’ll see how good they are tomorrow afternoon.
by kindablue on Dec 6, 2008 8:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
what?
how can you be a steeler and cowboy fan? That equation is not balanced and DNE. Personally if the steelers do not commit more than 2 turnovers, they will beat anyone. ANYONE. This Defense has been THAT good, and i think the offense is starting to bond and is putting up more points now.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 5, 2008 5:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what I like more
Your username or your avatar
In-YOUR-endo
by accidental innuendo on Dec 6, 2008 9:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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