Drafting a Running Back

by Dachs on Apr 16, 2008 8:48 AM CDT Comment 11 comments

Very interesting article from the Football Outsider guys on ESPN.com, http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/s...

They basically say that of all the combine measurables, for running backs it's the 40-time that has the highest correlation with NFL success. They created a formula (200XWeight/40-Time to the 4th power) which for the most part would have nailed every bust or sleeper in the last 10 drafts. The average adjusted 40 score of all running backs is 98.5; for all drafted running backs, it's 102.4; for all running backs selected in the first round, it's 112.1.

Here's a list of this year's prospects I found http://forum.signonsandiego.com/show...

Player 40 time weight result ranking
Chris Johnson 4.24 197 121.91 5
Darren McFadden 4.33 211 120.05 1
Jon Stewart 4.48 235 116.68 2
R. Mendenhall 4.45 225 114.76 3
Chad Simpson 4.42 216 113.19 18
Kevin Smith 4.43 217 112.69 8
Jalen Parmele 4.47 224 112.21 17
Matt Forte 4.46 217 109.69 7
Jamaal Charles 4.38 200 108.68 9
Felix Jones 4.47 207 103.7 4
Tashard Choice 4.52 215 103.02 10
Cory Boyd 4.51 213 102.97 13
Xavier Omon 4.59 228 102.73 22
Ray Rice 4.44 199 102.41 6
Steve Slaton 4.44 197 101.38 11
Ryan Torain 4.64 222 95.79 19
BJ Green-Ellis 4.63 219 95.31 27
Thomas Brown 4.55 204 95.2 14
Marcus Thomas 4.6 213 95.14 24
Anthony Alridge 4.36 170 94.09 20
Dantrell Savage 4.5 187 91.21 26
Mike Hart 4.67 206 86.62 15

What I take out of this is what I was thinking all along. Felix Jones may not be worth a 1st-round pick, we'd be better off with Johnson or Smith in round 2 or 3, and would be better served using #28 on a WR or even an OL if Alberts is available, unless Mendenhall or Stewart are still around.

Thoughts?

(jeterchrist.blogspot.com)

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Comments

thats a very interesting article

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Apr 16, 2008 9:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure why RB is such a priority.

I don't think we lost to the Giants because of our running back. We need a corner and a true #2 or future #1 receiver, since Crayton is a good #3, but a mediocre starter. We could use an inside linebacker that can play the pass, although I guess that's what Zach Thomas is supposed to do.

The problem is that the talent at those positions doesn't line up with where our picks are at. Because of the first round's salary structure, it's important to also get a good value, which probably won't be available at our need positions.

I think the best scenario is to draft a corner at 22 and use 28 to acquire a young veteran receiver, then pick up a RB and another WR later in the draft.

by Baked Potato Soup on Apr 16, 2008 9:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

maybe because we only have one

RB on the roster right now and it's very possible MB3 won't be resigned. That's why it's top priority. It's imperative we draft a RB capable of starting as insurance.

We could use an inside linebacker that can play the pass, although I guess that's what Zach Thomas is supposed to do

Did you see how many ILB's we have on the roster?? We are crowded at the position, the reason Ayodele could be traded or released. There is no chance we will be drafting a LB early in this draft, if at all.

by Cowboys81 on Apr 16, 2008 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Running backs are a dime a dozen.

If our line is as good as it was last year, and hopefully better at run blocking with Houck back, then it doesn't really matter who the back is as long as they are decent. Our offense is going to be centered on Romo, not Barber or whomever else. I'm sure they'll pick up a solid veteran backup and should get a good back in round 2 or 3, but they shouldn't reach in round 1. Especially since that player will probably never start for us if Barber is re-signed.

We have a ton of LBs, but they are awful at coverage in either the Cover 2 or man-to-man. It's not just Roy's fault that TEs and FBs kill us over the middle every year.

by Baked Potato Soup on Apr 16, 2008 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not drafting a ILB

Just forget about it. Burnett is an excellent cover ILB. So is Carpenter.

by Cowboys81 on Apr 17, 2008 12:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting concept. . .

But there are other things than forty times that make RBs successful. Vision, feel for the game, etc. . .all are components to success. Walter wasn't blazing fast, but he's the best to ever play the game. Emmitt is renowned for his lack of 40 time but who wouldn't draft him if he were coming out today?

There is no one indicator regardless of how complex the algorhythm is/was to determine/project the impact each player will have on the game.

Just my opinion.

Bum's Boy Boyz

by JerrodWheeler on Apr 16, 2008 10:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

It seemed rather convenient that they only used backs in the last few years, which eliminates a ton of historically great backs, including guys like Emmitt, Payton, Jerome Bettis, Curtis Martin, etc. Also, I find that when a formula is that complex, it is usually because the formula was manipulated to fit the desired result.

by Baked Potato Soup on Apr 16, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Felix Jones

I have my doubts about this guy too. I really don't see how he's much of an upgrade over Tyson Thompson. They both run too high, and both mostly have straight line speed wiith poor lateral movement. Worst of all, Felix Jones has terrible leg strength.

When I take all that into consideration, I think Jamaal Charles is a much better choice. However, if we're really just looking for speed to complement Barber, wouldn't the logical move be to draft Chris Johnson? I know both Charles and johnson are second rounders, so I hope to God we trade out of the first with our 28th pick.

by datplaya42 on Apr 16, 2008 12:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think its all about the value.

Outside the big three, none of the backs would be worth our 22nd pick. So think at that point, if the big three corners are gone as well then we gotta think about moving down to early to mid second round (if we can find a dancing partner).

Hopefully if Atlanta and Baltimore pass on Ryan with their initial picks they would maybe be enticed to get back up for Brohm, or Flacco.

I just dont want to see us take a player earlier than we have to and miss out on some value. Right now we are slated to select 3 of the top sixty one players. If we were able to turn that into say 4 of the top 75, that would be huge. We could fill all of the obvious needs plus maybe add another body to the d-line or something.

by Carl Shelton (GloryDayz88) on Apr 16, 2008 12:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to get Ray Rice in the 2nd round

My second choice would be Matt Forte in the 2nd.

T-New, shutting down WR's for Dallas since 2003.

by APerfectStar on Apr 16, 2008 6:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

In a perfect world

Talib or Jenkins would fall to us at 22, we'd trade 28 for Roy Williams or Boldin, pick up anyone of the Smith/Johnson/Charles/Rice group in Round 2 or 3, and then find out we traded our 5th rounder for Pac Man. That would be a sweet draft day.

Like Giant fans would still rather have Eli than Romo.

by Dachs on Apr 16, 2008 11:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs