7 Statistical Nuggets To Drive You Nuts

by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 13, 2009 7:15 AM CDT

Random statistical thoughts and musings that make me tear my hair out and shout for joy - often at the same time.

1. Who invented the two-minute warning, and why?

The Dallas Cowboys so far have been formidable - if you watched only the 1st and 3rd quarters. In the 1st and 3rd quarters, the Boys have outscored their opponents 54-13, while allowing only 1 touchdown (NYG).

Unfortunately, this stat carries weight only with the mathematically impaired, as in the combined 2nd and 4th quarters (+OT) we were outscored 68-85. Now, as if that weren't bad enough, 38 of those 85 points were scored against us after the 2-minute warning in each half.

2. ScarletO weighs in with this nugget on our talent level

After five weeks, the running game is ranked 3rd, and the passing game is 8th in yards gained per game. Comparitively, the defense is ranked 16th against the run and 28th versus the pass in yards per game.

The offense has four former first round picks playing, with Felix Jones being the only first round pick used by the Cowboys in the draft: Roy Williams, Marc Colombo, and Leonard Davis are the other former first rounders. Conversely, Dallas has used six first round picks on defense (Terrence Newman, Mike Jenkins, DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Marcus Spears, and Bobby Carpenter). In addition, Keith Brooking was a former first round pick (12th in 1998).

This team has a defensive problem, and it does not appear to be completely due to talent.

3. Blitz all you want

After the stellar 2007 season, DC's across the league were trying to figure out how to slow down the Dallas offensive juggernaut. One plan (among many!) that seems to have caught on and that we're seeing continued this season is to blitz Romo heavily. In Romo's first 8 starts last year, he was blitzed an average of 8 times. Mike Holmgren then wrote a two word Memo, "Blitz Him", to his fellow headcoaches and for the remaining 5 games Romo was blitzed an average of 16 times per game.

Sadly, the scheme worked. In 2008, Romo's passer rating in blitzing situations was 83.4, down from 95.4 in non-blitzing situations.

[Updates from KC game in bold]

This year, opposing defenses are continuing to pile on the pressure with an average of 18 pass blitzes per game. Romo's rating when blitzed remains stable at 93.6, but drops significantly in non-blitzing situations to 81.5. So for now, keep bringing those blitzes!

Note: Blitzes are always gambles, and most QB’s actually increase their rating in such situations. Romo was an exception last year.

Blitz pressure in games with Romo as starter, 2008-2009

	2008													2009
	CLE	PHI	GB	WAS	CIN	ARI	WAS	SF	SEA	PIT	NYG	BAL	PHI	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC
Dropbacks	32	29	33	48	26	42	27	40	35	40	37	48	43	47	38	29	29	36
Blitz	8	8	6	10	11	9	8	8	18	11	17	12	22	17	14	8	13	22

4. Wade vs. the Secondary

To date, on a yards per game passing basis, we have played the No. 9 (NYG), 15 (DEN), 23 (TB), 24 (CAR) and 29 (KC) passing offenses in the league. Not really the most impressive bunch. Yet almost all of those teams posted 2009 season high numbers against us. Leftwich and Orton had their best passer rating of the season (89.1 and 117.5) against us, Manning and Cassel had season high passing yards (330 and 253), and Delhomme (220) had his second best passing yards game against us.

Our defensive passer rating is 94.6, 24th in the league. ProFootballFocus.com have compiled defensive passer ratings for our secondary through 4 games (I'll update the numbers with the 5th game once available). Bear in mind that the base for this analysis is very small, especially for the Safeties - one play can still swing the numbers significantly - but early indications are that Sensabaugh and Jenkins are playing fairly strong, while Newman, Hamlin and Scandrick have struggled. This stat is confirmed by my highly scientific eye-ball-test!

Defensive Passer Ratings through week 4

Position	Player	Thrown At	Rec	% caught	Yds	Yrds/TA	TD	INT	Def. Rating
Safeties	Sensabaugh	6	3	50%	30	5.0	0	0	64.6
	Hamlin	3	2	67%	32	10.7	0	0	102.1
	Watkins	4	3	75%	15	3.8	1	0	119.8
Cornerbacks	Jenkins	28	17	61%	203	7.3	1	1	79.9
	Newman	28	17	61%	274	9.8	2	1	102.4
	Scandrick	20	16	80%	175	8.8	1	0	119.8

* WE INTERRUPT THIS STAT FEST FOR SOME VISUAL RELIEF *

The following picture has nothing to do with this fanpost, but it's a lot nicer to look at than all of the numbers - and helps maintain a cheery season outlook. Enjoy.

Back to business now.

5. Bend but don't break

For all the gloom and doom about our defense, there are a couple of things that give hope (and that Wade might right now be highlighting on his resume).

While opposing defenses seem to be marching up and down the field on us, they actually have to do a lot of marching to score a point, 18.3 yards to be exact. With 18.3 yards per point allowed, Dallas ranks 6th in the NFL.

On a related happy note, the Eagles are giving it up like the cheerleaders at my high school: 12.7 yards per point allowed ranks them 29th in the league.

6. Stop'em on 3rd

The Cowboys defense has allowed a remarkably low third down conversion rate of 30.2% this year, ranked fourth in the NFL behind only the mighty Giants, Saints and Broncos. Not bad at all. Then again, with 10 defensive penalties resulting in 1st downs (28th in the league) we also like to shoot ourselves in the foot a lot.

7. A stat worth yakking about: yards after catch

There are two key elements to high YAC totals - the ability to run and elude tacklers after the catch, and the QB delivering an accurate ball that gives the receiver a chance to get upfield. The Cowboys lead the league in YAC with 790 yards, a whooping 59% of the 1.341 total passing yards.

Now if only we could get our completion rate up from the abyssmal 58.2%, I might be able to take off my rose colored glasses and boldly go where no Cowboy fan has gone in 13 years.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Comments

Nice post...

…despite including a reference to me.

Even though the Dallas defense is permitting a low percentage of conversions on third down, the Kansas City Chiefs converted significantly more than than their previous average of 17.6%. Kansas City went 5 for 17 (29.4%), raising the Chiefs’ season third down conversion percentage to 20.6%.

In my opinion, this further reinforces the point that the Dallas defense is wildly inconsistent.

by ScarletO on Oct 13, 2009 7:40 AM CDT reply actions

How apropos that you would be the first to write a comment :-)

and yes, the Cowboys so far have a knack for making any opposing QBs look good.

by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 13, 2009 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions

How do I rec your post?

by ScarletO on Oct 13, 2009 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions

Never mind, I found the button.

Say what you will about Tony Romo struggling with this new passing game, but Romo has had three games without throwing an interception this season. Had Austin cut his pattern off at 11 yards in Denver, as he did in Kansas City, Tony probably would have four games without throwing an interception.

But here’s the kicker…

In 2008, Tony Romo only had three games all season where he did not throw an interception. Romo only played in 13 games last season, but threw interceptions in 10 of them.

During the 2007 season, Tony threw at least one interception in 13 games, meaning that he did not throw a pick in only three games. This was the first season Romo started all 16 games.

Tony started his first game in week 8 against Carolina. From week 7 (when he came in at halftime against the Giants) through week 17, Romo had three games in which he did not throw an interception.

Tony Romo has a career record of 10-2 in those games in which he has not thrown an interception. His two losses were the game at Washington in 2006 where Owens dropped a long touchdown, and the special teams got a field goal blocked that led to a last second Redskins field goal after a 15-yard facemask personal foul; and the loss to Arizona last season where he fractured his hand and again saw the special teams melt down.

(Sunday the special teams missed a field goal, lost a muffed punt, and fumbled another punt and a kickoff. Ratliff blocked a field goal, and the Cowboys won.)

Some other points of interest regarding Tony’s games sans an interception:

- Romo had two games with QB ratings under 100 (his overall rating is 115.8).
- Tony has 27 touchdown passes in those games with a yard per attempt of 8.66.
- Romo was sacked 22 times in those games.
- Tony averaged 294 yards per game in those contests.

by ScarletO on Oct 13, 2009 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Romo does look safer with the ball

Aside from that giants game, hes been good in that regard.

But honestly, my problem with him last year had nothing to do with interceptions – he fumbled the ball A LOT. But again, he looks like hes holding it much better this year.

The one negative this year has been his accuracy – by my count, hes been rather innacurate for 2.5 of our 5 games (Giants, Broncos, first half of TB) and very solid the other 2.5. But this is a problem going back ot last year – Romo’s had accuracy struggles against the really good defenses for a while now.

by foyesboys on Oct 18, 2009 3:58 AM CDT up reply actions

Great post - rec'd

by BishopWest on Oct 13, 2009 9:02 AM CDT reply actions

All posts should include gratuitous cheerleader shots

Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey

by Seanrude on Oct 13, 2009 10:06 AM CDT reply actions

seconded

by mdlusk on Oct 13, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions

3rd

"No matter where you go, you are what you are playa"-Jay Z
Twitter Account

by Wmillion on Oct 13, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Grizz, can we make this BTB policy

Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey

by Seanrude on Oct 13, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions

BTB Beauty of the Week? Or Month?

"No matter where you go, you are what you are playa"-Jay Z
Twitter Account

by Wmillion on Oct 13, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions

You are thinking too small

No reason it can’t be every day, and twice on sunday

Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey

by Seanrude on Oct 13, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions

I enjoyed it

But you’re still in high school?

by JBell523 on Oct 13, 2009 11:12 AM CDT reply actions

I think the poor DB Stats

reflects the weakness of the pass rush so far. Good news is it has improved over the last couple of games. Couple of other considerations:

- Are we blitzing less? Especially those packages where we overload one side. Just doesn’t seem that prominent..
- Why do our CB"s play so far off Receivers ? Again?

I’m willing to accept a higher risk/higher reward scheme, which is what I thought we had last year. But our current scheme reminds me of the BP defenses that drove me nuts with their passiveness.

Impressive work on compiling these with the analysis. Gratuitous cheerleader pic always welcome.

Note: No trees were killed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced

by tdships on Oct 13, 2009 11:18 AM CDT reply actions

“Why do our CB”s play so far off Receivers ? Again?"

you answered it. It’s the weakness of our pass rush.
Playing the coverage game is the hardest strategy to implement in a defense. You can’t cover all that ground. So the “coverage” windows are only affective within the amount of time you can continue to put pressure on the QB. That’s why seams exist in any defensive coverage, etc.

It is a prime reason why Romo is so good outside the pocket. When the pressure gets tough, Romo squeezes out and by that time the coverage scheme has started to lose its affectiveness. When general protection is good, that’s an indictment on our WRs. The only time they get open is when the coverage degrades. They aren’t getting themselves open. At that point – you lose the intent of their routes and the general strategy. It’s just sand-lot pitch and catch.

Also, its a bit of a strategy game with the QBs. You try to mess with them by showing them certain coverages – that you can get away with – to get him to react a certain way with his reads.

Also, you play off because you fear your CBs aren’t winning the man-to-man battles. So you give them a cushion. We’re not winning those battles.

by rotovibe on Oct 13, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions

That's only part of the reason...

Also, you play off because you fear your CBs aren’t winning the man-to-man battles. So you give them a cushion. We’re not winning those battles.

One of the first things that Campo said when he was hired was that “Wade likes to play the CBs 5 or 10 yards off the LOS because he wants the CBs looking at what is in front of them as much as possible in order to maximize the potential of making plays”.

The problem is that Newman and Scandrick are as much of a ball hawks as Anthony Spencer is, which as we’ve seen isn’t. Jenkins seems to have more ball instincts, but he’s hardly a ball hawk too.

Viva México! Go Cowboys!

by Chandus on Oct 13, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions

Get it, thanks

Do you think that’s why we’re apparently blitzing less, to put more defenders in the defensive backfield?

Look at what DEN did to us, blitz to get the ball out of the QB’s hands quickly, but press on the WR"s to cut off hot routes.

Note: No trees were killed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced

by tdships on Oct 13, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Sure it is. It's an inherent benefit of playing "off". Not anything revolutionary.

But when you play man and someone like marshall swims past you with relative ease to catch a game winning TD. It makes you nervous as a DC.
We started the KC game playing off. In the 2nd half we changed that a bit.

by rotovibe on Oct 13, 2009 1:17 PM CDT reply actions

Great Post and Rec'd

However I dont like the use of defensive passer rating against individual players. TDs throw that stat off way too much, and the low number of passes attempted towards each also leads to a somewhat misleading number.

The Knights season may have just ended, but the Cowboys year is just begining!

by aussie_cowboy on Oct 13, 2009 7:48 PM CDT reply actions

Wade may like them playing off.

Any quarterback worthwhile is going to make a living out of the cushion being given. Outs and curls all day long until they get to the red zone where they can’t get beat deep. No matter what , the defensive pass stats seem to indicate thay improvement is needed.

by oldboysfan on Oct 13, 2009 9:21 PM CDT reply actions

Nice post

I thought the DBs playing off the WRs would stop this year, but they continue to do it. That really burns my a** watching every week. When is Mr Fix-it gonna fix it?

by Boyz4Life on Oct 15, 2009 1:45 AM CDT reply actions

Wade wants the DBs playing off to keep them from getting burned deep

it is corrective in nature to solve last year’s problem. He brought in a new S in Sensi, and pulled the CBs off of the line to keep the play in front of them. That was the idea, so it might not change. In Wade’s thinking, this is the fix to last year’s issues. Plus, he may be waiting for more pressure on the qb by Spencer.

by BishopWest on Oct 15, 2009 2:00 AM CDT up reply actions