Cowboys vs. Falcons: When Stats Lie
I've only watched a complete Atlanta Falcons game once this year, which was last week against the Chicago Bears. Watching that game, I came to some conclusions about the team from the Dirty South, but I wanted to get a fuller picture of them. So I started diving into their year-to-date stats and found this team an interesting study.
I think of the Falcons as a team that can score, and they can. They average just about the same amount of points per game as Dallas does, a little over 24 points a game. So I thought they would be one of the top offenses statistically in the league. Not the case. They are 18th in yards per game, 15th in passing, and 24th in rushing. With numbers like that, you would think they would struggle to score. The key - when these guys get into the redzone they convert. Plain and simple.
They have twice the number of ‘3 and out' drives as the Cowboys do on the year, so they aren't a team that is just moving the ball up and down the field on people. They will give you an opportunity to take control of the game, but their defense has held (more on them below), and then Atlanta will get a drive or two going, and they'll put seven on the board. Michael Turner's stats are way down this year (3.5 YPC); the Falcons are struggling to run the ball. But Turner has six TDs because when they get to the redzone they convert. Suddenly, they can run the ball. Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White are their main weapons in the passing game, and they utilize Gonzalez well in the redzone.
Here's a few more things the Falcons have going for them on offense. Matt Ryan has been sacked twice this year. Yeah, you read that right, twice. They do an excellent job in pass protection, and Ryan is very good about getting to his reads and getting the ball out of there. The Cowboys will have a real challenge in creating pressure on Ryan. Also, Atlanta is +5 in turnovers, so even though they have turned it over some, their defense is making up for it.
Speaking of their defense, it's very similar stats-wise to their offense. They're #24 overall in yards against per game. #21 in passing and #23 against the rush. You look at that and you'd think their defense stinks. But they don't, because they are #4 in points against. Look at that jump from the yardage stats to the scoring stats. They are making teams kick FGs or they are getting turnovers in the redzone. The game against the Bears was probably instructive, as Cutler slung it to the Falcons a couple of times. You can move the ball on this defense, but you better take advantage of the opportunities given, or else they'll make you pay in the end.
For a 4-1 record, the Falcons statistically look shaky. Or, another way of looking at it - they come through when it counts. They don't make mistakes at the important times in a football game. They sound like the opposite of us. We can move the ball up and down the field all day, but when it comes to scoring, well, we've spent the past few weeks documenting those woes. Penalties, dropped passes, questionable play-calling, if you can think of it and it's bad - we've probably done it. On defense, the Cowboys can play well for 55 minutes, then fall apart at the end. Just when they're needed most, they have played their worst. (In truth, our defense is also a better scoring defense than yards allowed defense, we have done well for the most part in defending the endzone.)
The Cowboys need to take a lesson from the Falcons, they're a team that closes the deal when they get opportunities.
They don't shoot themselves in the foot. We like to take a 12-guage shotgun to ours.
1 recs |
64 comments
|
Comments
IT NEVER GETS OLD!!!
Ich bin ein Berliner--JFK
by HudBaby on Oct 22, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great walk-through Grizz
This should be quite the game…
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
by dunkman on Oct 22, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats shows stats can be deceiving...
The stats say this is not that good of a team,but good coaching and not making the mistakes makes all the difference. Take notes Dallas.
by DIRE WOLF on Oct 22, 2009 1:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Stats are amazing
You can look at the stats and interprete them to say Atlanta is a good team because they somehow lock teams down in the redzone. Or you can look at the stats and say they are an average team that has benefited from the fact that they’ve had some very good luck in the redzone.
by staubachfan on Oct 22, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stats or just that,numbers no more no less.
by DIRE WOLF on Oct 22, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
all though numbers can’t lace them up and take the field. They do show how if you play within yourself, protect the ball an play a bend don’t break defense you can be successful.
Whether you think you can or you think you can't either way your right
by UnNessecsary Roughness on Oct 22, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you need stats to know that
Any team in the league can say that as the formula for success. I used to love the old stat with Tony Dossett. The cowboys had a very high percentage of wins when he gained more then 100 yards in a game. So many believed all we had to do was hand the ball of to him and we automatically win. However, that really wasn’t the case, running worked when the passing game worked and when you have a lead you then run more to run down the clock. In games they were behind they would pass more to try and score. Then people turn around and say, “well, if they would have run more they would have run.”
by staubachfan on Oct 22, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
But their RED ZONE stats are not deceiving
And their 2 SACKS all year stats, are not deceiving
And their +5 in TURNOVERS stats, are not deceiving
These stats are REVEALING not deceiving
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 22, 2009 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially the 2 sacks
that’s what makes NO so hard to beat – the ball is out before the pressure can get there.
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
by dunkman on Oct 23, 2009 7:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think their +5 TO ratio is what makes them hard to beat
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 23, 2009 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the real difference between the teams in turnover differential
Falcons protect the ball and get turnovers defensively, we have been the just the opposite.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 22, 2009 1:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The pass defense needs to step it up
and force Ryan to become shaky in the pocket. We need that great pass rush that helped the Cowboys a lot last year to force uncharacteristic mistakes.
Also, Austin and Williams producing would go a long way, as would a mix of Smash, Dash, and Tash.
by Rickyy. on Oct 22, 2009 2:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It is interesting that he has only been sacked twice yet they have twice as many 3 and outs
Does this mean they pick up a lot less yards per play?
by rioplayer7 on Oct 22, 2009 2:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
it means he throws the ball away a lot
and hasn’t been super accurate on a lot of his throws. You could see that clearly Sunday night.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 22, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Falcons playing N.O. for first in the south...
next week. Any chance the might be looking past Dallas?
by DIRE WOLF on Oct 22, 2009 2:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
lets hope so
even if its subconsciously, lol.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 22, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it.
Leaving here in ATL… My company even has a van of people driving to the game. Before M.Vick Dallas was the team to route for there is a large fan base here the buzz is huge. I doubt there will be any over looking going on.
Whether you think you can or you think you can't either way your right
by UnNessecsary Roughness on Oct 22, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant living....
there’s no spell check for stupidity…lol
Whether you think you can or you think you can't either way your right
by UnNessecsary Roughness on Oct 22, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is hard for Dallas to hide.
Everybody loves to beat Dallas.
by DIRE WOLF on Oct 22, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The stats will catch up to them or they'll catch up to the stats
Greetings from the Humungus, the Ruler of the Wasteland, the Ayatollah of Rock and Roll-A. I laugh at your puny plans.
by Lord Humungus on Oct 22, 2009 2:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking something similar
but not as well said.
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
by dunkman on Oct 22, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should be a good game
Nice to see Cowboys receivers and RB’s pretty healthy
Falcons D has endured injuries and bends but doesn;t break. Very clutch in the red zone
Atlanta Offense has a lot of weapons with Burner, White Ryan and Gonzalez. Jenkins has been off a bit and Ovie and Norwood hurtin.
Wonder who will have the better game – TG or Witten of the TE battle ?
by WarWolf on Oct 22, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
After this week the karma would say
Bennett. Wouldn’t that be something?
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
by dunkman on Oct 22, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What better showcase for his coming out party?
by Baked Potato Soup on Oct 23, 2009 3:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to see it
this team could only improve if they added another thing for defenses to worry about. Miles’ performance last game will probably open things up for RW and Witten this week.
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
by dunkman on Oct 23, 2009 7:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Read an article today
Said Roy W’s still hurting, but he said he’ll play.
by Joon on Oct 23, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The more I see and hear about Atlanta
The more I like our chances. If we can’t be up and focused for this game, well then we probably aren’t disciplined enough for a playoff run anyway. The record of their opponents is comparable to ours they don’t have a great offense or defense. We win this game.
by staubachfan on Oct 22, 2009 3:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's what I ALWAYS tell myself
if they can’t win these tougher games, then they just aren’t that good anyway and I shouldn’t expect so much..
It works best when my conversation partner is a beer.
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
by dunkman on Oct 22, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this game will tell a lot about which direction this team is heading
You’re right, coming off a bye week, at home, there can’t be any excuses not to play well.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 22, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes after the bye week teams come out flat it seems.
by DIRE WOLF on Oct 22, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not good teams that need wins
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 22, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well ,we'll see, won't we
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 22, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope they come out kicking ass...
don’t get me wrong,but sometimes timing is off and teams seem sluggish.
by DIRE WOLF on Oct 22, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't agree
NFC South isn’t very strong but Atlanta is a good team that will bring their A game
by AustonianAggie on Oct 22, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They could play well and still lose
Like they did in the Giants game. This game is so crazy, a few plays can determine the outcome. Perfection is hard to achieve fellas, or at least mistake free.
by torchindefenses on Oct 22, 2009 4:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they played well in the Giants game
Especially Romo. But the D let them down in the last few minutes of the game.
by staubachfan on Oct 22, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
3 facets
The Cowboys beat the giants in all but 3 phases of that game. QB, secondary..and the killer..Critical errors. Otherwise it could have been the saints game. 21 points off a +4 t.o. diff. Will win teams a lot of games.
Wade Phillips has never won a playoff game as a head coach..he has lost 4 home playoff games.
His longest tenure as head coach was 3 years.
Only once did his record as a HC improve from one year to the next (by 1 game)
Wade Phillips for DC
by SDTrueblue on Oct 22, 2009 5:23 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
And Lincoln really enjoyed the play
except for that little epesode with Booth. We didn’t win all three phases if QB and secondary were major factors for the loss.
by staubachfan on Oct 22, 2009 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
just sayin
They really outplayed the giants as a unit for most of the game. But, indeed the areas where they lost were more crucial than the many aspects of the game that they dominated. Was just pointing out that the team as a whole could outperform their opponent and still lose due to glaring mistakes.
Basically we are in agreement
Wade Phillips has never won a playoff game as a head coach..he has lost 4 home playoff games.
His longest tenure as head coach was 3 years.
Only once did his record as a HC improve from one year to the next (by 1 game)
Wade Phillips for DC
by SDTrueblue on Oct 22, 2009 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
I really hope that the mental mistakes are somehow addressed during the bye.
by staubachfan on Oct 22, 2009 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
correct but the offense played well except Romo
They put up 31 points on a good defense. We ran all over them. Romo had a bad game and the D didn’t fair too well at the end. The Giants are a very good football team. Dallas almost won, minus a few plays. Romo’s turnovers and the 2 minute defensive blunder.
by torchindefenses on Oct 22, 2009 5:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good data and analysis.
The theme I get is that some teams “play up” to 4-1 and others “down” to 3-2 based on redzone production (both offense and defense) and turnover ratio, not stats. Most of us would have to say if Cowboys had given up fewer turnovers and had more takeaways ourselves, we could be 4-1 or 5-0, too.
Matt Ryan looks like a pretty good QB. I saw him play the other night and the kid was smart. Like Peyton smart.
"We'll see." --Bill Parcells
by Uncle Angus on Oct 22, 2009 5:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Is it too early....
to call this an "ALL IN " game? Considering it may just take 10 wins to get in, with all the tie breakers and such, I don’t think it is.
A win would be huge to change the perception and overall outlook for this team the rest of the way!
Let’s go ,’Boys!!!
by fiverings37 on Oct 22, 2009 6:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Not an “all in” game as in if we lose this it’s over. However, it’s a great barometer for the rest of the season. Win and I’ll feel good about our chances to make the playoffs…..lose and I think we’ll be a .500 team this year.
by staubachfan on Oct 22, 2009 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
This is a huge game because Atlanta is going to be in the thick for the wildcard spot.
I almost think this game is bigger for Atlanta than Dallas, while I don’t really think that the Giants are that much better than the Boys, I do think that the Saints are heads and above better than the rest of the division, maybe even the entire NFC.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Oct 22, 2009 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
After losing
two games to quality opponents, don’t you think the Cowboys will see this game as important. Just showing that they can beat a team like Atlanta may convince them that they can play with anybody and win. This would be great emotionally for the rest of the season. They have a fairly tough road ahead.
by oldboysfan on Oct 22, 2009 8:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Giants game
In the Giants game the Cowboys scored 4 TD’s and one FG and the Giants had 3TD’s and 4 FG’s and a missed FG.
This suggest that the Giants had more scoring opportunities and if they had converted 2 of the FG’s to TD’s would have won by a bigger margin.
The only stat that really counts is the W number at the end of the season.
I still expect the Cowboys to be pushing for a playoff place at the end of the season,
by G Fan in England on Oct 23, 2009 3:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
3 of their drives started in Dallas territory, though, so that’s going to give you some scoring opportunities.
by Baked Potato Soup on Oct 23, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Noted
But when you consider the Cowboys were 4 for 4 in the RZ and the Giants 0 for 5 it only takes a little more RZ success by the Giants or failure by the Cowboys to make a radical difference to the score.
Even allowing for where drives started the Giants put points on the board on more of their drives than the Cowboys did – this in my view refutes the comment that the Giants were outplayed.
by G Fan in England on Oct 23, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude we gave you that game. Spotted you points while taking points off of our board.
We ran for 250+ yards and shut you down on the run. Take away one 30 yard run and you were dismal rushing.
You won, and thats what counts but we kicked your asses. Your front line isnt playing up to hype and your DB injuries show against good Os. Fortunately, your team is smart and knows how to play while ours is dumb. Giants will be in it late because you guys know how to play but your injuries will catch up to you in late Dec. and Jan.
I have no idea if we have any heart or brains yet. We could go either way but history isnt on our side.
KICK ASS every day!!!
by squidlo97 on Oct 23, 2009 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Passing not rushing wins games
We beat you because we were the better passing team on the day.
We lost to the Saints because they were the better passing team on the day.
For you to make a deep playoff run you need Romo to play solid football for all of the games in Jan?feb. I have not seen him play so cannot comment if he is capable of that – but do you think he is?
Yes we have alot of injuries and Phillips was no doubt the major one. We are indeed hoping that Canty, Boley and Ross return after the bye week for the crucial run in to the end of the season. Whilst our D Line has not recorded alot of sacks this has been because we have not blitzed much and so 4 DL have been going against 6 or 7 blockers. What you will find that the Giants will blitz more as the season progresses which will make the D Line better as it gives them more one on one match ups.
All my concern is reaching the playoffs and going from there and I guess that is all you want from this season too.
by G Fan in England on Oct 23, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rushing wins in Dec and Jan.
You must be from England. You need balance but you have to run in bad weather. You have to be able to pick up 3 and 1. Our passing game has been one of the best but in bad weather it folds up.
P.S. Why is it the best passing team of all time got beat by you guys with the great running game.
KICK ASS every day!!!
by squidlo97 on Oct 25, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
The Giants beat the Pats by passing over them.
The Giants shut down the Pats passing game which you have to do to win games.
I agree you need to be able to convert 3rd and short in bad weather , but that is a staple of any team – good passing attacks are not possessed by every team.
by G Fan in England on Oct 25, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
NE just clobbered TEN in bad weather (snow)
with passing, not running.
Brady had 5 TD’s in 1 quarter of the game.
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 26, 2009 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Making plays
I’m a huge Cowboys fan, but a Falcon’s season ticket holder. I watch the Falcons every week. The Falcons make plays on defense. They have very average corners and they get beat on a regular basis. They just don’t give up big plays too often. When they do give up big plays, and the other team doesn’t score on the big play, and makes it into the redzone. Someone on the team always steps up and gets an interception or Abraham will get a sack. On offense, Roddy White is always open and is guaranteed at least one long pass…normally an out route. Dallas needs to run the ball and run it often. They should be able to pass on the Falcons too. They lost a starting corner and If I’m correct, they’re stuck w/ #20 who’s 5’9".
by Snatchandgrab on Oct 23, 2009 7:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Falcons VS Cowboys
This game is always a close game. I think this will go to the wire. Hopefully, Dallas won’t do what they always seem to do: shut an offense down all day and then give up one big play in the 4th qtr that seals the game.
by Snatchandgrab on Oct 23, 2009 7:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

by 





















