Parityville: It's a Billy Beane-esque Race in the NFC
by Rafael Vela on Oct 27, 2009 11:00 AM CDT
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PrintIf you've read Michael Lewis' Moneyball, you'll recall a passage where Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane is planning his roster for the season. He has a limited budget and needs to make his dollars count. Beane has calculated the value of offense versus defense towards wins and concludes that offensive production costs less than top defensive talent. He therefore decides to find value-priced hitters and take his chances with suspect fielders.
If you look at the NFC field seven weeks into the season -- or six if your team has received a bye -- you see the Billy Beane strategy in place. I doubt it's by design, but the major contenders have thus far have found their wins by leaning on their offenses to outscore the opposition. The Saints are the best example; their defense gives up over 21 points per game, but they're averaging almost 40 per contest, so they're a clean 6-0.
Here's the NFC field:
Defensive points per game
- Packers 16.0
- Cardinals 18.2
- Seahawks 18.2
- Falcons 19.0
- Eagles 19.3
- Cowboys 19.8
- 49ers 20.3
- Giants 20.4
- Vikings 21.1
- Saints 21.4
- Bears 24.0
Some of these teams are pretenders. Some are legitimate contenders. All we can say at this stage of the season is that the conference does not have a dominant defense. Only the Packers are below the 17.0 PPG average, which denotes an above average group. None come close to the 14.0 ppg average, where the elite play.
(It's worth noting that three teams, the Broncos, Colts and Patriots are all at or below 14.0 ppg. The Broncos are giving up an impressive 11.0 thus far.)
If one or two defenses in this bunch finds themselves, their teams will have a clear advantage over their peers come playoff time. It's anybody's guess who that team or teams might be.
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Let's hope they keep getting better every week.
What does this say about the Seattle defense….
How worried should we be?
Anyone seen the spread yet?
Anomoly............Finally here.........
Their defense is pretty good but that whole team is banged up
Lofa Tatupu is out long term.
Patrick Kearney probably won’t play.
On the offense, Walter Jones has never come back from his knee injury and his backup Sean Locklear may not play.
I see Wade blitzing Matt Hasselback a lot.
by Rafael Vela on Oct 27, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Thats the way the NFL likes it...
They want alot of points scored. The rules are slanted to the offenses advantage. Thats why teams score alot more points now than they did in the old days.
Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.
Seattle's D has 2 shut outs against the lowly Rams and Jags.
They have given up 23 to the 49ers, 34 to the Colts, and 27 to the Cards. I can see us putting up 30 points this week end.
KICK ASS every day!!!
Every year Teams seem to run up the score board in Sept and Oct, but Nov and Dec points are harder to come across. This is my memory of it… I’ve not checked back over the weekly point totals to verify this.
The one that impresses me most is the Colts. Everyone knows that to win vs the Colts you have to pass and score, and yet they’re holding teams to14
by AustonianAggie on Oct 27, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions
If I were playing the Colts
I would run the ball instead of throw it. They are undersized upfront, and the more you hold the ball, the less Peyton gets it. Then on defense I would throw a good mix of blitzes and 4-man rushes and use a lot of changing zones similar to what we did to Matt Ryan this past week. Hopefully, this would make Peyton work a lot harder to decipher the defense and keep him off-balance.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Oct 27, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep...
And it is the closest Indy has come to losing this year. If Miami’s defense played better they would have won.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Oct 27, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd do what Dallas
did the last time we beat the Colts. That seemed to work pretty well.
Our D needs a dominating game this week
I’m a bit worried that Dallas may be looking slightly past this week to the big game in Philly next week. It would be huge for the defense to set the tone early and get to Hasselback. We don’t need a real flashy win, just put them away early with a heavy dose of our RB’s. They will all likely see increased carries, especially Choice of course. I wonder if they will bring out the razorback again or save it for Philly. I think that could be very dangerous with Choice and Felix in the back field.
"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."
-Ari Gold
The Cardinals got 5 sacks on Hasselback 2 weeks ago...
Seattle’s offensive line is in shambles. Our Defense should crush them
I had the exact same fear
They still need to have a “Win Now!” attitude every week. Let’s worry about Philly when we’re playing Philly.
Big 5
If they go 5 wide then it’s going to be a long day…we don’t have the personnel to match up..thats what happened when the patriots destroyed the titans
That's dangerous with Ware coming around
"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."
-Ari Gold
If they go five wide Hasselbeck will be getting x-rays by the end of the 1st quarter
New England has a good pass blocking line. Seattle doesn’t have healthy OTs right now. And the Dallas rush just battered Matt Ryan, the best protected QB in football this year.
by Rafael Vela on Oct 27, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions
no doubt
Even if Dallas sends only 5 rushers that means both Ware and Ratliff are being blocked one-on-one.
"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."
-Ari Gold
or 4 really
Can you double-team Ware on the outside with 2 lineman? I don’t see how that would work
"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."
-Ari Gold
I dunno
Not many teams have three really good starting corners. Plus Senei and Ham cover well too. I think Dallas is better suited to deal with 5 wides than most.
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
Dunkman I saw your post on...
the Redskin blog. Do you really feel sorry for them or are you turning soft on us.hehe
Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.
I really do feel bad
it’s one thing when your team just stinks – that happens to all teams at some point. But man, that franchise has broken faith with their fans. It’s insanity.
Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.
Off the subject...
Did the deadskins offense look like a deer in the headlights last night?
Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.
Zorn should be mercy fired by Goodell after that game
…equally not impressive was McNabb and the Eagles
Yeah it was sad to watch
If the Redskins had any pulse at all they should have won that game. The Eagles were not real good outside of Jackson. Could have been a huge upset, but as luck would have it, I’m sure the offense will magically find it’s way when they play Dallas. Seems like that’s the kind of thing that happens to us.
"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."
-Ari Gold
Danny Snyder sure makes Jerry look like a real football man.
I bet Jerry hopes Al Davis and Danny Snyder stay in the NFL forever. He looks like a genius compared to those morons.
Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.
sad? nope - I'm lovin' every minute of it
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
they looked more like a dead deer in the ditch
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
Chris Cooley is probably out for the season, minimum 6-8 weeks
And Haynesworth just called out his team’s “want-to”
And yet somehow they’ll play us close
The NFL has become an offensive league
It’s because the casual fan would be bored and lose interest in so many 10-6 or 17-14 ball games. The casual fan wants to see the scoreboards light up so the NFL changed the rules to allow that to happen.
Playing good defense is important but not like it was years ago. You need a good qb and offense to win in this league, it’s as simple as that and thank God Jerry made sure we have one of the very best.
In Romo we Trust
Nothing wrong with that though
It not only helps create guys like Brees and Manning (ok they dont need that much help) but it brings attention to other more boring games. How about the Niners almost coming up with a huge upset on the Vikes and then a monster comeback on the Texans? The NFL: Where the Impossible Almost Becomes Possible (But Stays Impossible).
"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."
-Ari Gold
nice signature, Entourage is a great show
Hopefully Romo might land a cameo on it someday since he’s gone so Hollywood.
In Romo we Trust
Tex, please sign out of Terry's account
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time." -Max McGee
I was actually being serious
It would be cool to see him land a cameo spot someday just like Brady did this past season.
In Romo we Trust
I guess it works....
the NFL gets bigger every year. The NFL is run so much better than baseball or basketball. The small market teams have the same opportunity to win as the large market teams The playing field is level in football. I think thats why the American passtime is football now not baseball,and basketball doesn’t seem to interest most people all that much. The last two minutes in basketball is the game.
Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.
A good game is hard hitting with good execution not basketball scores
I am getting to feel the trick to winning is having the last possession. When gave up the long pass to Brandon Marshall for a TD I was almost glad because it gave us enough time to answer.
Who doesnt like and 85 Bear, 93 Cowboy, 02 Ravens defensive ass stomping.
KICK ASS every day!!!
real fans like those games
I was referring to the casual fan who can’t appreciate low scoring defensive games.
I doubt there are many casual fans on this blog.
In Romo we Trust
The only issue I have with defensive struggles…
…is that the commercial breaks are relentless. Every 3 and out produces another time out and another 3 mins or so of ads. It’s hard to feel the flow of the game when you’re seeing more commercials than game.
The 2009 Dallas Cowboys: Talk to me in December.
The NFC East has won 11 Super Bowls; oddly none of those have come courtesy of the Eagles.
Good point. Does anyone hate those Bud Light infomercials as much as me.
I decided to never drink one again. I find them insulting. Like Im a moron. I have vowed that if I ever see that guy walking down the street Im gonna punch him.
KICK ASS every day!!!
Light beer. For crying out loud.
Fat Tire, Eye of the Hawk, Sudwerks, Sierra Nevada, Sam Adams, Anchor. Those are beers.
Family, Friends, Cowboys, Beer & BBQ. Life is good!
I have read you guys raving about Flat Tire on here for a while
but i cant find it in South louisiana. I must be weak but I have always like Mexican beer.
KICK ASS every day!!!
My bro in law handed me an ice cold Fat Tire after I drove 425 miles to his house.
It buckled my knees when I poured it down my throat. Wow. It was worth the drive.
Family, Friends, Cowboys, Beer & BBQ. Life is good!
We have a section at my supermarket that has many Im not familar with.
I will look those up.
KICK ASS every day!!!
Green Bay's stats are inflated...
I’m here in Packer country. People were questioning us winning against bad teams. The Pack has barely beaten the Bears, struggled for a time with the Rams, and crushed the Lions and the Browns. Doesn’t get much softer than that, especially now that the Bears are looking very weak. Look for GB’s defense to give up a lot more points.
My roommate is a Packer fan
and he thinks they’re are a better team than the Vikings. I predict them beating the Vikings this week, but the Vikings still winning the division. This game will be great though won’t it? But to what you said, I agree and don’t think the Packers will turn out to be contenders, but for one week I think their fanswill propell them past the boys in purple.
"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."
-Ari Gold
Carp's Performance against Gonz
was praised by Phillips during a press conference. Saying that Gonz did not get off the line well and had no catches when Carp was covering him.
We are always so down on him, thought I’d give him some props.
nobody is saying he isn't a good coverage LB
athletic ability is his strength, but the reason he doesn’t get any love from most fans is because as an ILB he isn’t physical enough at the point of attack to shed blocks which is an absolute necessity as a 3-4 ILB.
Watch him on running plays, he’s a joke.
In Romo we Trust
as a first rd pick, he certainly is a bust
You don’t draft LBs in the first rd to become situational players. The only way Carp ever sees the starting lineup is if either Brooking or James goes down, and if that ever happens every team will be able to run on us like a hot knife through butter.
In Romo we Trust
Interesting Stats - Garbage Time Pts and other
I wonder how much garbage time points have elevated some of the averages. Like Dallas giving up 7 vs. TB and ATL respectively in garbage time. Also, Seattle pitched a shut-out vs. JAX where JAX simply didn’t show up. If you factor out that game, it ups their ppg given up over the 17pt barrier.
Excellent column as always, Mr. Vela.
They also shut out the Rams. Their D stats have been fluff by an easy schedule.
KICK ASS every day!!!
I have heard said that Carp would be better in the 4-3.
When Bill drafted Carp people were saying he’s not good fit in the3-4. I guess Bill did his dad a favor drafting him in the 1st round.
Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.
Carp was drafted as an OLB
and that’s the position he played at OSU. Whoever decided to move him inside made a huge mistake, he’s definitely not an inside backer.
In Romo we Trust
he played in a 4-3 there
it’s not that easy for a 4-3 OLB to have a place in the 3-4. Probably easier for a 4-3 MLB to be a 3-4 MLB than for a quick, rangy, small 4-3 OLB to be anything at all.
No he is not...
Bill spent a 1st round pick on a nickel LB
Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.
I noticed while watching my tape of the Atlanta game
that Ryan Diehl totally plowed over Bobbie Carpenter on Atlanta’s 2nd TD.
In Carpenter’s Defense, I believe Ryan Diehl to be really fantastic at guard
that was the whole Atlanta scored through
by AustonianAggie on Oct 27, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
if you watch closely
you’ll notice Carp gets pancaked by every OL, TE or RB that blocks him, it’s common place every game.
In Romo we Trust
I don't totally buy those defensive numbers
Take us for example. We’ve had by all accounts 1 bad defensive game (Bucs). We gave up 33 to the giants with 4 turnovers and something like 20-24 points off them. We held the Pathers to 7. We gave up 17 to denver and 7 of those were practically gift wrapped. We gave up 20 to the chiefs but again, 10 of those were off turnovers. This isn’t totally reasonable, but take those points off turnovers out, and we’re a top 10 scoring D easy maybe top 5.
I think a lot of teams (Saints) have give up points in garbage time too, maybe I’m wrong. WE’ve let up at least 14.
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