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Parityville: It's a Billy Beane-esque Race in the NFC

The Cowboys rediscovered rush could give them an edge in the NFC playoff drive. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

More photos » LM Otero - AP

The Cowboys rediscovered rush could give them an edge in the NFC playoff drive. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

If you've read Michael Lewis' Moneyball, you'll recall a passage where Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane is planning his roster for the season.  He has a limited budget and needs to make his dollars count.  Beane has calculated the value of offense versus defense towards wins and concludes that offensive production costs less than top defensive talent.  He therefore decides to find value-priced hitters and take his chances with suspect fielders.

If you look at the NFC field seven weeks into the season -- or six if your team has received a bye -- you see the Billy Beane strategy in place.  I doubt it's by design, but the major contenders have thus far have found their wins by leaning on their offenses to outscore the opposition.  The Saints are the best example; their defense gives up over 21 points per game, but they're averaging almost 40 per contest, so they're a clean 6-0. 

Here's the NFC field:

Star-divide

Defensive points per game

Some of these teams are pretenders. Some are legitimate contenders.  All we can say at this stage of the season is that the conference does not have a dominant defense.  Only the Packers are below the 17.0 PPG average, which denotes an above average group.  None come close to the 14.0 ppg average, where the elite play. 

(It's worth noting that three teams, the Broncos, Colts and Patriots are all at or below 14.0 ppg.  The Broncos are giving up an impressive 11.0 thus far.)

If one or two defenses in this bunch finds themselves, their teams will have a clear advantage over their peers come playoff time. It's anybody's guess who that team or teams might be.

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Let's hope they keep getting better every week.

What does this say about the Seattle defense….
How worried should we be?
Anyone seen the spread yet?

Anomoly............Finally here.........

by goat3000 on Oct 27, 2009 11:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Their defense is pretty good but that whole team is banged up

Lofa Tatupu is out long term.
Patrick Kearney probably won’t play.
On the offense, Walter Jones has never come back from his knee injury and his backup Sean Locklear may not play.

I see Wade blitzing Matt Hasselback a lot.

by Rafael Vela on Oct 27, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats the way the NFL likes it...

They want alot of points scored. The rules are slanted to the offenses advantage. Thats why teams score alot more points now than they did in the old days.

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 11:18 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Seattle's D has 2 shut outs against the lowly Rams and Jags.

They have given up 23 to the 49ers, 34 to the Colts, and 27 to the Cards. I can see us putting up 30 points this week end.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Oct 27, 2009 11:30 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Every year Teams seem to run up the score board in Sept and Oct, but Nov and Dec points are harder to come across. This is my memory of it… I’ve not checked back over the weekly point totals to verify this.

The one that impresses me most is the Colts. Everyone knows that to win vs the Colts you have to pass and score, and yet they’re holding teams to14

by AustonianAggie on Oct 27, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If I were playing the Colts

I would run the ball instead of throw it. They are undersized upfront, and the more you hold the ball, the less Peyton gets it. Then on defense I would throw a good mix of blitzes and 4-man rushes and use a lot of changing zones similar to what we did to Matt Ryan this past week. Hopefully, this would make Peyton work a lot harder to decipher the defense and keep him off-balance.

If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.

by Cowboyfan729 on Oct 27, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

because Peyton can score in 45 sec and it took MIA 7-10 minutes

by SB2008 on Oct 27, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep...

And it is the closest Indy has come to losing this year. If Miami’s defense played better they would have won.

If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.

by Cowboyfan729 on Oct 27, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd do what Dallas

did the last time we beat the Colts. That seemed to work pretty well.

by Teacher on Oct 27, 2009 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Our D needs a dominating game this week

I’m a bit worried that Dallas may be looking slightly past this week to the big game in Philly next week. It would be huge for the defense to set the tone early and get to Hasselback. We don’t need a real flashy win, just put them away early with a heavy dose of our RB’s. They will all likely see increased carries, especially Choice of course. I wonder if they will bring out the razorback again or save it for Philly. I think that could be very dangerous with Choice and Felix in the back field.

"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."

-Ari Gold

by Young Wiz on Oct 27, 2009 11:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Cardinals got 5 sacks on Hasselback 2 weeks ago...

Seattle’s offensive line is in shambles. Our Defense should crush them

by BWareof94 on Oct 27, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had the exact same fear

They still need to have a “Win Now!” attitude every week. Let’s worry about Philly when we’re playing Philly.

by tkosmith on Oct 27, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Big 5

If they go 5 wide then it’s going to be a long day…we don’t have the personnel to match up..thats what happened when the patriots destroyed the titans

by Lone Star on Oct 27, 2009 11:48 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That's dangerous with Ware coming around

"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."

-Ari Gold

by Young Wiz on Oct 27, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If they go five wide Hasselbeck will be getting x-rays by the end of the 1st quarter

New England has a good pass blocking line. Seattle doesn’t have healthy OTs right now. And the Dallas rush just battered Matt Ryan, the best protected QB in football this year.

by Rafael Vela on Oct 27, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

HaHa....+1 Raf....

You'll never get in a traffic jam,while going the extra mile. -Roger staubach

by TrueBlue24 on Oct 27, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

no doubt

Even if Dallas sends only 5 rushers that means both Ware and Ratliff are being blocked one-on-one.

"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."

-Ari Gold

by Young Wiz on Oct 27, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

or 4 really

Can you double-team Ware on the outside with 2 lineman? I don’t see how that would work

"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."

-Ari Gold

by Young Wiz on Oct 27, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno

Not many teams have three really good starting corners. Plus Senei and Ham cover well too. I think Dallas is better suited to deal with 5 wides than most.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Oct 27, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunkman I saw your post on...

the Redskin blog. Do you really feel sorry for them or are you turning soft on us.hehe

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really do feel bad

it’s one thing when your team just stinks – that happens to all teams at some point. But man, that franchise has broken faith with their fans. It’s insanity.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Oct 27, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

They’re going to be bad for years, too. Bad situation over there.

by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 27, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know. That's what makes me empathize with their fans.

No fans deserve this. I don’t want them to win the East, but it bothers me as a fan of the game to see a proud franchise so mismanaged. It’s the east coast version of the Raiders.

I often wonder if Goodell will step in – even privately – and see if he can’t help them right those ships. They are an official embarrassment to the league.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Oct 27, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Little Danny put his stamp on this team.

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Off the subject...

Did the deadskins offense look like a deer in the headlights last night?

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 12:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Zorn should be mercy fired by Goodell after that game

…equally not impressive was McNabb and the Eagles

by BWareof94 on Oct 27, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah it was sad to watch

If the Redskins had any pulse at all they should have won that game. The Eagles were not real good outside of Jackson. Could have been a huge upset, but as luck would have it, I’m sure the offense will magically find it’s way when they play Dallas. Seems like that’s the kind of thing that happens to us.

"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."

-Ari Gold

by Young Wiz on Oct 27, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Danny Snyder sure makes Jerry look like a real football man.

I bet Jerry hopes Al Davis and Danny Snyder stay in the NFL forever. He looks like a genius compared to those morons.

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

sad? nope - I'm lovin' every minute of it

Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden

by BishopWest on Oct 27, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

they looked more like a dead deer in the ditch

Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden

by BishopWest on Oct 27, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chris Cooley is probably out for the season, minimum 6-8 weeks

And Haynesworth just called out his team’s “want-to”
 
And yet somehow they’ll play us close

by Joon on Oct 27, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ha ha

isn"t that the truth.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Oct 27, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The NFL has become an offensive league

It’s because the casual fan would be bored and lose interest in so many 10-6 or 17-14 ball games. The casual fan wants to see the scoreboards light up so the NFL changed the rules to allow that to happen.

Playing good defense is important but not like it was years ago. You need a good qb and offense to win in this league, it’s as simple as that and thank God Jerry made sure we have one of the very best.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Oct 27, 2009 12:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nothing wrong with that though

It not only helps create guys like Brees and Manning (ok they dont need that much help) but it brings attention to other more boring games. How about the Niners almost coming up with a huge upset on the Vikes and then a monster comeback on the Texans? The NFL: Where the Impossible Almost Becomes Possible (But Stays Impossible).

"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."

-Ari Gold

by Young Wiz on Oct 27, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

nice signature, Entourage is a great show

Hopefully Romo might land a cameo on it someday since he’s gone so Hollywood.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Oct 27, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tex, please sign out of Terry's account

"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time." -Max McGee

by BigDinSC on Oct 27, 2009 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude, that is a low blow - lol

Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden

by BishopWest on Oct 27, 2009 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was actually being serious

It would be cool to see him land a cameo spot someday just like Brady did this past season.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Oct 28, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess it works....

the NFL gets bigger every year. The NFL is run so much better than baseball or basketball. The small market teams have the same opportunity to win as the large market teams The playing field is level in football. I think thats why the American passtime is football now not baseball,and basketball doesn’t seem to interest most people all that much. The last two minutes in basketball is the game.

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A good game is hard hitting with good execution not basketball scores

I am getting to feel the trick to winning is having the last possession. When gave up the long pass to Brandon Marshall for a TD I was almost glad because it gave us enough time to answer.

Who doesnt like and 85 Bear, 93 Cowboy, 02 Ravens defensive ass stomping.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Oct 27, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"When we"

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Oct 27, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

real fans like those games

I was referring to the casual fan who can’t appreciate low scoring defensive games.

I doubt there are many casual fans on this blog.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Oct 27, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only issue I have with defensive struggles…

…is that the commercial breaks are relentless. Every 3 and out produces another time out and another 3 mins or so of ads. It’s hard to feel the flow of the game when you’re seeing more commercials than game.

The 2009 Dallas Cowboys: Talk to me in December.
The NFC East has won 11 Super Bowls; oddly none of those have come courtesy of the Eagles.

by gee-roj on Oct 27, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point. Does anyone hate those Bud Light infomercials as much as me.

I decided to never drink one again. I find them insulting. Like Im a moron. I have vowed that if I ever see that guy walking down the street Im gonna punch him.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Oct 27, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

me

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Light beer. For crying out loud.

Fat Tire, Eye of the Hawk, Sudwerks, Sierra Nevada, Sam Adams, Anchor. Those are beers.

Family, Friends, Cowboys, Beer & BBQ. Life is good!

by CowboyMan on Oct 27, 2009 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have read you guys raving about Flat Tire on here for a while

but i cant find it in South louisiana. I must be weak but I have always like Mexican beer.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Oct 27, 2009 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

DosXX Should have been on my list.

Family, Friends, Cowboys, Beer & BBQ. Life is good!

by CowboyMan on Oct 27, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

I don’t always blog about football, but when I do, I blog with BTB….

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Oct 27, 2009 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My bro in law handed me an ice cold Fat Tire after I drove 425 miles to his house.

It buckled my knees when I poured it down my throat. Wow. It was worth the drive.

Family, Friends, Cowboys, Beer & BBQ. Life is good!

by CowboyMan on Oct 27, 2009 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Green Bay's stats are inflated...

I’m here in Packer country. People were questioning us winning against bad teams. The Pack has barely beaten the Bears, struggled for a time with the Rams, and crushed the Lions and the Browns. Doesn’t get much softer than that, especially now that the Bears are looking very weak. Look for GB’s defense to give up a lot more points.

by Bluecheese on Oct 27, 2009 12:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My roommate is a Packer fan

and he thinks they’re are a better team than the Vikings. I predict them beating the Vikings this week, but the Vikings still winning the division. This game will be great though won’t it? But to what you said, I agree and don’t think the Packers will turn out to be contenders, but for one week I think their fanswill propell them past the boys in purple.

"I’m ready to go here, all right? It’s like R. Kelly at recess."
"You will come back stronger then ever. Like Lance Armstrong. But with two balls."

-Ari Gold

by Young Wiz on Oct 27, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Carp's Performance against Gonz

was praised by Phillips during a press conference. Saying that Gonz did not get off the line well and had no catches when Carp was covering him.

We are always so down on him, thought I’d give him some props.

by staubachfan on Oct 27, 2009 1:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

nobody is saying he isn't a good coverage LB

athletic ability is his strength, but the reason he doesn’t get any love from most fans is because as an ILB he isn’t physical enough at the point of attack to shed blocks which is an absolute necessity as a 3-4 ILB.

Watch him on running plays, he’s a joke.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Oct 27, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

as a first rd pick, he certainly is a bust

You don’t draft LBs in the first rd to become situational players. The only way Carp ever sees the starting lineup is if either Brooking or James goes down, and if that ever happens every team will be able to run on us like a hot knife through butter.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Oct 27, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Go watch Turner’s TD run near the goaline and keep your eyes on Carp. He doens’t even try to stand his ground. I really don’t know who would win a race going backwards, Carp or Proctor. Talk about soft.

by T Zig on Oct 27, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting Stats - Garbage Time Pts and other

I wonder how much garbage time points have elevated some of the averages. Like Dallas giving up 7 vs. TB and ATL respectively in garbage time. Also, Seattle pitched a shut-out vs. JAX where JAX simply didn’t show up. If you factor out that game, it ups their ppg given up over the 17pt barrier.

Excellent column as always, Mr. Vela.

by egtuna on Oct 27, 2009 1:28 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I wondered about that too

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Oct 27, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have heard said that Carp would be better in the 4-3.

When Bill drafted Carp people were saying he’s not good fit in the3-4. I guess Bill did his dad a favor drafting him in the 1st round.

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 1:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Carp was drafted as an OLB

and that’s the position he played at OSU. Whoever decided to move him inside made a huge mistake, he’s definitely not an inside backer.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Oct 27, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

he played in a 4-3 there

it’s not that easy for a 4-3 OLB to have a place in the 3-4. Probably easier for a 4-3 MLB to be a 3-4 MLB than for a quick, rangy, small 4-3 OLB to be anything at all.

by blee on Oct 27, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No he is not...

Bill spent a 1st round pick on a nickel LB

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 1:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I noticed while watching my tape of the Atlanta game

that Ryan Diehl totally plowed over Bobbie Carpenter on Atlanta’s 2nd TD.

In Carpenter’s Defense, I believe Ryan Diehl to be really fantastic at guard

by AustonianAggie on Oct 27, 2009 1:40 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

that was the whole Atlanta scored through

by AustonianAggie on Oct 27, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

if you watch closely

you’ll notice Carp gets pancaked by every OL, TE or RB that blocks him, it’s common place every game.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Oct 27, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Giants...

20.4 per game… Shocking. Never saw that coming.

by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 27, 2009 1:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The 2 decent offenses they have played so far have run roughshod over them.

Their running game isnt as potent in years past. Unless they get it together, they may pull one of our stunts and fold in Dec.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Oct 27, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

love to see that happen

Sheli will show his true colors when he has to throw a bunch

Ich bin ein Berliner--JFK

by HudBaby on Oct 27, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brandon Jacobs...

He’s just a different player this year. It reminds me a lot of guys like Natrone Means, Barry Foster, Ironhead Heyward, Christian Okoye, etc., that were great backs for a few years, but saw their production fall off sharply early in their careers. There are very few examples of big backs that are able sustain a high level of play for a long time. (Jerome Bettis comes to mind). But the reality is that really big RB’s that run hard and absorb a lot of hits simply don’t have long shelf lives.

I’m not saying that’s what’s happening with Jacobs… yet. But the Giants will struggle winning games this year if the 2007 and 2008 versions of Jacobs don’t show up soon.

by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 27, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What does that say for Barber then?

Although MBIII may absorb less hits because he’s always injured, he’s pretty small and certainly small for a “power” back…

by blee on Oct 27, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Barber looked faster than last year coming out of camp but their is no doubt

his quad has slowed him down. I think this is why we are up in arms about Him getting the carries ahead of Choice.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Oct 27, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have always heard that when a RB cant make it to the hole before it closes,

he is done. (lose a step) I guess these big guys just lose their step quicker.
Or is it because he is a big guy he needs to get and extra step to get moving and the Giants Oline isnt as good as the previous 3 years. I know if you can get to him early you have much more success.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Oct 27, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who was it that put the big hit on Okoye...

I remember he was never the same after the hit.

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Steve Atwater

by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 27, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, thanks

They say the memory is the second thing to go.

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know how many here

saw Earl Cambell play but he was a monster.The LBs were not near as big as they are now and he would pancake them.

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And now the guy can't walk

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Oct 27, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats right and it's very sad

Tom Landry=the greatest football mind ever.

by DIRE WOLF on Oct 27, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Funny

their offense seems a little better this year, but their D seems like it’s dropped at about the same rate.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Oct 27, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't totally buy those defensive numbers

Take us for example. We’ve had by all accounts 1 bad defensive game (Bucs). We gave up 33 to the giants with 4 turnovers and something like 20-24 points off them. We held the Pathers to 7. We gave up 17 to denver and 7 of those were practically gift wrapped. We gave up 20 to the chiefs but again, 10 of those were off turnovers. This isn’t totally reasonable, but take those points off turnovers out, and we’re a top 10 scoring D easy maybe top 5.

I think a lot of teams (Saints) have give up points in garbage time too, maybe I’m wrong. WE’ve let up at least 14.

by foyesboys on Oct 27, 2009 2:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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