Seven Statistical Nuggets To Feel Good About
Random statistical thoughts and musings as I revel in the warm afterglow of the Atlanta game.
1. Stat of the Week:
Number of punts, kickoffs, passes or any other foreign objects to hit the Jerrytron in 3 home games: 0
2. Old Surehand.
With crazy offensive stats pouring in - Smiles Austin's record breaking two-game receiving spree, Romo officially entering the NFL record books at No. 3 all-time in career passer rating and No. 3 three all time in career yards per attempt (Fanshot here) - one little nugget went quietly unobserved.
Over the span of the last four games, Tony Romo has exactly one interception. This is only the second time he's done this (after games 8-11 in '06). It is also only the second time he has had two consecutive games without an INT. With four INT-free games so far this season, he has already matched his season best in his (admittedly short) career. Keep your fingers crossed.
3. Three-and-outs.
Because I am in a festive mood today, I will give you another little obscure stat to feel good about: 3-and outs. On 68 offensive drives this season, the Cowboys recorded a miserly 9 3-and-outs, or 13% of all drives. Rank in the NFL? No.1 of course.
Alas, while our defense recorded 19 on 70 drives (27%), that only ranks them 14th in the league.
Incredible factoid of the week: Oakland has the most 3-and-outs in the league on offense (31) and the least on defense (1).
4. "911 is experiencing technical difficulties, please call 919 for immediate help."
There's no denying that the Romo to Williams connection is experiencing technical difficulties. A 40% catch rate is just inacceptable, but it's not all on Roy. Sure he's dropped his share, but Romo also needs to throw it at him, not over him, and not in the dirt at his feet. But just imagine what a dominant offense we could have if this is fixed ...
| First 6 games 2009 |
Targets | Catches | % caught |
Yards |
| Austin | 35 | 21 | 60% | 502 |
| Witten | 40 | 33 | 83% | 312 |
| Crayton | 34 | 17 | 50% | 252 |
| Williams | 30 | 12 | 40% | 230 |
| Choice | 18 | 13 | 72% | 115 |
| Hurd | 9 | 5 | 56% | 79 |
| Bennett | 14 | 7 | 50% | 72 |
| Barber | 6 | 5 | 83% | 59 |
| Jones | 4 | 3 | 75% | 26 |
| Anderson | 2 | 1 | 50% | 5 |
| Total | 192 | 117 | 61% | 1.652 |
5. Power and Precision: Our Kickers aim for the NFL record books.
Exhibit A: David Buehler. Buehler has already amassed 13 Touchbacks on 35 Kickoffs in 6 games. His 13 touchbacks lead the NFL, despite a game in hand for the Cowboys. His TB rate of 37,1% is 4th in NFL.
Why is this number important? About 10% of all NFL kickoffs (excluding onside kicks) are touchbacks. The average starting position for all non-touchback kickoffs is the 32. The average difference between a touchback and a non-touchback is therefore 12 yards. Those 12 yards are one additional first down required for the opponent to score.
Those 13 TB's are more than the Cowboys had in 2006 (8), 2007 (4) and 2008 (0) combined. At this pace, he will have 35 touchbacks after 16 games. That would be 3 more than the Cowboys have scored in 8 consecutive seasons (32 TB's, '01-'08), and would be an NFL record!
Since the league started using the K-ball back in 1999, the record for most TB's is held by Rhys LLoyd (CAR, 2008) with 30. Lloyd's 30 touchbacks out of 88 attempts helped boost the Carolina special teams kickoff coverage from 19th place in '07 to 3rd in the league in '08.
Exhibit B: Mat McBriar: McBriar is currently ranked fourth in the NFL with a 41.3 Net Punting Average (calculated as Gross punting yards, minus Return Yards, minus 20 yards for every Touchback, divided by Total Punts).
Why is this number important? Because, since the NFL began keeping track 30 years ago, only 5 punters have achieved a NPA above 40 over an entire season (Lechler, OAK, 07 & 08 - Lee, SF, 07 - Player, CLE, 07 - Pulescu, DEN 07 - Jones, STL, 08). Also, because the number includes return yards, it is an effective measure of Special Teams' performance on punts - and the Cowboys shine on this one, thank you, Joe D.
If the Cowboys manage to keep the 41.3 through the end of the season, they would best Shane Lechler's NFL Record of 41.2 from last year.
McBriar's precision is also worth noting. The Cowboys are one of only five teams in the NFL that have not kicked a punt out of bounds, have recorded only one touchback on punts so far (that is good, because ideally you want to place the ball at the 1 yard line), and are second in the league in % of punts palced inside the red zone with 58% (15/26).
****
A little something to look forward to:
****
6. Where are we after 6 weeks?
The obvious answer is, who knows? We're 4-2. Last year, we started 4-2 and ended up 9-7. In 07 we started 5-1 and ended up 13-3. Below are some stats that help put this year into perspective.
We're passing about as well as we were in 2007, so that looks promising. Unfortunately, our secondary remains as challenged against the pass as it was last year, a far cry from the fairly dominant performance in 07.
On points differential, we're about where we were in 2007. Our defense has given up slightly less points, our offense is scoring about two points per game less, cue grumbling about our red zone performance this year.
Passer Rating and Points Differential through first six games, 07-09
| |
Offensive Passer Rating |
Defensive Passer Rating |
Rating Differential |
Points Scored |
Points Allowed |
Points Differential |
|||||
| Rating |
NFL Rank | Rating |
NFL Rank | Points |
NFL Rank | Points |
NFL Rank | ||||
| 2009 | 94.7 |
10th |
90.0 |
21st | +4.7 |
26.5 |
10th |
19.8 |
14th | +6.7 |
|
| 2008 | 84.9 |
13th | 86.2 |
20th | -1.3 |
22.6 |
18th |
22.8 |
20th | -0.2 | |
| 2007 | 97.1 |
4th | 75.1 | 5th | +22.0 |
28.4 |
2nd |
20.3 |
13th | +8.1 |
|
7. Whither goest thou, NFC East?
- NFC BEAST: With a .576 win percentage, our division is the winningest in the NFL. It is the only division with three teams with a .500+ winning record, and has a points differential of + 112, overshadowed only by the AFC East with 117, but these numbers are bloated by the 'unclassiest team of the decade' which likes to continue running up points on their opponents even when ahead by more than 30 points.
- NFC LEAST: Through week seven our whole division has managed only two wins against a quality opponent (better than .500 record through wk 7). Ironically, one was an intradivision game (NYG vs DAL). The other was our win over Atlanta. The division in total is 2-6 vs. quality opponents. Except for the NFC North, also with 2 wins, all other divisions have more wins against quality opponents.
- Tough Schedule still to come: The NFC East has by far the toughest remaining schedule of any division. Based on the W-L records through week 7, Washington has the toughest schedule in the NFL, with an opponent winning percentage of .679, Giants are No. 3 with .629, Eagles No.4 with .619 and the Cowboys are No. 10 with .531. I would not like to be Jim Zorn right now.
- Smooth sailing ahead: By the same measure of opponent winning percentages so far in 2009, the softest schedules are held by Arizona (.333) and New Orleans (.354). Can you spell Division Winner?
| NFC | OPP Win Percentage (Week 7 09) |
OPP Point Differential (Week 7 09) |
AFC | OPP Win Percentage (Week 7 09) |
OPP Point Differential (Week 7 09) |
|
| WAS | .679 | +280 | BAL | .585 | +23 | |
| CAR | .646 | +424 | KC | .576 | -49 | |
| NYG | .629 | +246 | NE | .561 | +155 | |
| PHI | .619 | +278 | IND | .538 | +117 | |
| TB | .618 | +347 | NYJ | .517 | +51 | |
| DAL | .531 | +180 | OAK | .508 | +37 | |
| MIN | .518 | +22 | BUF | .500 | +66 | |
| CHI | .500 | -48 | DEN | .485 | +2 | |
| GB | .492 | +15 | TEN | .476 | -33 | |
| STL | .491 | -20 | HOU | .474 | -10 | |
| ATL | .485 | +52 | PIT | .466 | -59 | |
| DET | .484 | -29 | MIA | .463 | -29 | |
| SF | .443 | -152 | SD | .455 | -198 | |
| SEA | .406 | -247 | CLE | .448 | -188 | |
| NO | .354 | -284 | JAC | .439 | -58 | |
| ARI | .333 | -424 | CIN | .433 | -182 |
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Comments
Rec'd before even reading
this series is one of my faves- going back to read and comment
Coach Winters: Mississippi State's offensive set. 2nd & 2 on our own 24, what defensive set might we call?
Alvin Mack: Eagle Zipper Hero, unless the setback shifts into the I.
Coach Winters: Good..[clicks to next slide], third and seven?
Alvin Mack: Oakie Thunder Lion. {What's your assignment?}
Alvin Mack: Kill the quarterback. {{Coach Winters clicks to next slide}}
Alvin Mack: Hit the tight end so hard his girlfriend dies. {{Coach Winters clicks to next slide}}
Alvin Mack: Kill everybody.
by KDP on Oct 27, 2009 4:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles...
http://twitter.com/BloggingTheBoys
by Aaron Novinger on Oct 27, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
What has happened with the punting rules that in the past 2-3 years all those Net Punting Avereage records have been made?
I think about 3 of Bennett’s incompletions have been failed end zone fade/jump ball routes.
by DavidH22 on Oct 27, 2009 4:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Skins schedule
was the easiest in league for the first half, yesterday’s game against the Eagles the first team they have played with a win! Of course they had the Giants week 1, but after that, they had a who’s who of suckiness with the Rams, Lions, Bucs, Panthers and Chiefs and managed to go only 2-3 through that mess. Now they’re faced with the toughest schedule in the league for the rest of the way, with only Oakland as a reasonably winnable game. Overall they will end up facing 6 of the 7 worst teams in the league, with only the Browns not on their schedule, and they will be lucky to end up with 3 wins.
LOL!!!
Schadenfreude!
by scottmaui on Oct 27, 2009 4:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I love reading
your stuff.
Ich bin ein Berliner--JFK
by HudBaby on Oct 27, 2009 4:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Love the girls
Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
by Seanrude on Oct 27, 2009 4:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Man! Analysis, stats AND cheerleader pics!
Awesome stuff. Don’t stop!
by Benthere on Oct 27, 2009 5:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow please tell me u came up with this yourself because I am impressed
911 is experiencing technical difficulties, please call 919 for immediate help
by rioplayer7 on Oct 27, 2009 9:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Roy himself did refer to 9-11 last week
meaning the Romo to Roy connection,…
but still a clever twist lol
by scottmaui on Oct 27, 2009 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
911 isn’t mine – I probably picked it up in the open game thread or somewhere else on this board – the headline is.
by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 28, 2009 1:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Plus I like the “Smiles Austin” tag, lmao. Hilarious… =D
God 1st, Family Always & Dallas Cowboys 4 Life!!!!!
by CodeNamedG on Oct 28, 2009 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OCC
Man, you brought your “A Game” on this post!
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 27, 2009 10:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad Romo is in the record book now
it should help to “shut up” some of the nay-sayers
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 27, 2009 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did I mess this up?
“With four INT-free games so far this season, he has already matched his season best in his (admittedly short) career.”
Last week I posted on your post that since Romo entered at halftime against the Giants, the most games Tony has had during one season without throwing nary an interception is three.
2006: @ Wash (loss 19-22), @ Ariz (win 27-10), and Tampa Bay (win 38-10)
2007: @ Miami (win 37-20), Minnesota (win 24-14), @ Detroit (win 28-27)
2008: @ Arizona (loss 24-30), San Francisco (win 35-22), NY Giants (win 20-8)
I did not find another game since Romo came on the scene against the Giants where Tony did not throw an interception before the 2009 season.
I was actually going to write a post regarding how pundits criticizing Romo and stating that he has regressed are really off. In fact, Romo’s current quarterback rating, 94.7, matches his overall career rating.
If anything, Romo has demonstrated that he has accelerated his learning curve these last few weeks and has begun to take smart chances. In addition, I find it odd that people criticize Tony without comparing him to his peers:
Rank Quarterback Rating
1 Peyton Manning, QB 114.5
2 Aaron Rodgers, QB 110.8
3 Drew Brees, QB 106.9
4 Matt Schaub, QB 104.4
5 Ben Roethlisberger, QB 102.6
6 Brett Favre, QB 102.2
7 Kyle Orton, QB 100.1
8 Tom Brady, QB 99.9
9 Philip Rivers, QB 96.1
10 Tony Romo, QB 94.7
11 Joe Flacco, QB 93.8
12 Donovan McNabb, QB 93.3
13 Eli Manning, QB 92.2
14 Matt Ryan, QB 90.2
15 Carson Palmer, QB 89.2
16 Kurt Warner, QB 89.1
17 Kevin Kolb, QB 88.9
18 Jason Campbell, QB 85.8
According to these statistics, Tony is the best quarterback in the NFC East. He ranks fourth in the NFC.
by ScarletO on Oct 27, 2009 11:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So that means that Romo is having his best season ever in regards to protecting the ball.
Since he has not thrown an interception against four different teams so far this season: Tampa Bay, Carolina, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Hopefully Seattle will be the fifth team to walk away empty.
by ScarletO on Oct 27, 2009 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that Romo is playing great and I like your stats
but in his first 16 games his QB rating was 95.4
in his 2nd 16 games his rating went up to 99.4
and his last 13 games, his rating dropped to 89.4
last 13 games (can’t count 16, because he was injured for 3 of them)
1) @ WAS – 72.8
2) SF – 113.3
3) SEA – 113.7
4) @ PIT – 44.9
5) NYG – 113.7
6) BAL – 66.2
7) @ PHI – 55.8
8) @ TB – 140.6
9) NYG – 29.6
10) CAR – 89.8
11) @ DEN – 67.0
12) @ KC – 113.7
13) ATL – 141.6
Last 13 game average QB rating is 89.4
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 27, 2009 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
7 of those games are last year's games
6 are this year’s games
Some really low ratings pulls his numbers way down:
Last year
44.9
66.2
55.2
This year
29.6 was just horrible
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 27, 2009 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks. Nice analysis.
This does not surprise me (that Romo has a lower rating over the last year) due to several factors. Rafael Vela actually wrote about one of the reasons in his most recent post: with Owens’ deterioration, Romo lacked a true vertical threat downfield. At the beginning of this season, Tony once again found himself without an established deep threat. Now that Miles has emerged, Romo will have the throws he excels at delivering once again available.
In addition, I believe (through observation and paying attention to what Romo has been saying) that Romo has been trying to improve his game by being more judicious with his passes. This change in Tony’s theoretical framework from which he bases his play is a major shift in philosophy.
Those changes generally take time and a great deal of effort. Tony has expanded his game to improve the Cowboys’ chances to win a Super Bowl in the next few seasons. If I am right, Tony’s numbers will continue to improve as he becomes more comfortable with his new role.
by ScarletO on Oct 28, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep - I agree
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 28, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you hit the nail on the head
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 28, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was erring on the cautious side
Nice pick-up ScarletO, I believe we are both right in a way. I included his two passes thrown for two completions without an INT in his first ever appearance in game 5, 2006 against Houston (win 34-6), but he did not start that game obviously.
by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 28, 2009 1:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hilarious!
4. “911 is experiencing technical difficulties, please call 919 for immediate help.”
Keep up the good work OCC!
by Boyz4Life on Oct 28, 2009 1:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
These are awesome.
This and the weekly power rankings are pretty much the first thing I read when I get here. Good job, sir.
Epic Fail since 1985
by the red scare on Oct 28, 2009 1:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Washington is SCREWED
and the Saints are a virtual lock for 12-13 or more wins and a bye. Their tough remaining games are atlanta twice, us once and new england. Thats it. Thats seriously it. Otherwise they have the Bills, crappy interdivision teams and washington. Maybe they play Green Bay or something.
I would call AZ a lock but they an be kinda on and off and warner is kinda injury prone.
The widespread remaining SOS in the nfc compared to the afc is kinda interesting.
by foyesboys on Oct 28, 2009 3:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Whoa....
….you just blew my mind. Let me read all of that again, so it sinks in… lol. GREAT STUFF!
Superbowl, or BUST.
by .FRoST.USAF on Oct 28, 2009 5:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Digging this...
Over the span of the last four games, Tony Romo has exactly one interception. This is only the second time he’s done this (after games 8-11 in ’06). It is also only the second time he has had two consecutive games without an INT. With four INT-free games so far this season, he has already matched his season best in his (admittedly short) career. Keep your fingers crossed.

I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles...
http://twitter.com/BloggingTheBoys
by Aaron Novinger on Oct 28, 2009 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Suggestion
In addition to a shot of the upcoming opponents’ cheerleaders, can we get a shot of a Cowboys cheerleader? Maybe do that after wins only
Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
by Seanrude on Oct 28, 2009 2:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, we're actually not looking forward to Seagals
because this is a home game and pro cheerleaders don’t travel to road games.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Oct 28, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent Post
The numbers show what we all have been seeing. This team is starting to come on. Looking forward to seeing how they sit after the next three games.
by oldboysfan on Oct 28, 2009 3:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
I’m back for another lesson in statistical realities. I for one love the work you do OCC. Seldom does your statistical analyses delve into the minutia to make a point.
But I thought this game was a perfect example of how statistics lie. Having been stuck in NFL Siberia (aka Denver) during the game that somehow inexplicably showed the complete Cincy game instead of the national game, I had to depend on the highlights, mediots, and of course this blog to relive the game.
What I found so shocking is the boxscore.
- Atlanta had significantly more 1st Downs.
- Atlanta had more running yards
- Dallas had more penalties
- Equal fumbles lost
- ATL had better 3rd down %
- most shocking, Atlanta had more Time of Possession
In fact, except for passing yards, the Falcons look like they dominated the game.
Oh, except on the scoreboard.
Having finally watched the full game on NFL Replay, I can understand the giddiness. It was a complete performance by the ‘Boys…though you couldn’t tell by the stats.
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
by Fighter15 on Oct 29, 2009 7:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lessons from the prom
Either you nailed the prom queen or you didn’t :-)
But for an even more statistically lopsided game, look at the DEN-MIA game in wk 2:
………………….IND……MIA
First downs……14 …… 27
Total yards…….356 ….. 403
3rd. D. Eff………42% …. 71%
TOP…………….14:53 … 45:07
Score………….. 27 …… 23
At the end of the day, it’s usually a couple of big plays in a game that determine the end result.
In the ATL game is was a 59 yrd TD pass and a 73 yrd punt return for a TD that decided the game.
by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 29, 2009 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Luckily, I did...oh to re-live THAT day
I was going to use that as an example as well. I’ve never understood the facination in the NFL about statistical rankings. There are simply too many variables and intangibles that cannot be measured to glean anything meaningful out of stats.
To wit, the Cowboys rank in the low 20’s on Defense and #2 of Offense. Yet the eyeball test clearly shows that our Offense has not yet hit it’s stride and our Defense is becoming one of the best units in football.
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
by Fighter15 on Oct 29, 2009 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
when we take two steps forward and one step back
with penalties, we can end up going like 80 yards on a drive but actually getting 100 yards of total offense, going over the same territory twice to make up the penalty yards. That combined with poor red zone execution in the last few games = lopsided yardage vs. scoring stats. We’re 2nd in total yards but 13th in scoring.
by scottmaui on Oct 29, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep
@ 159 total points, Dallas is only slightly behind….
the Defending Super Bowl Champs (PIT), 167 total points (about 1 point per game difference)
And the Cowboys’ total points per game compared to the undefeated Colts is basically 3 points less per game (a Field Goal)
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 29, 2009 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if you're being sarcastic, but
I agree in principle that scoring is the best indicator of true ranking. That’s not to say it’s perfect.
One thing I wish they would do is to remove defensive and ST points from offensive totals and vice versa.
For example, Tony’s pick-sixes skew our defensive rankings (down), just like Chicago’s offense did not score the 14 points against the Vikes needed to win that game.
The other factor keeping scoring from being a tell-all stat is that one-sided teams will almost always lead in one category and serve as a statistical outlier (curve busters). Offensive-heavy Teams like NO gets into shootouts because they have to. Defensive stalwarts like Pitts & Balt will use their offenses conservatively keeping other teams from having opportunities to score, thus increasing their defensive rankings.
Balanced teams, like the 90’s Cowboys never led the league in either category, but were always top-5/10 in both. When I do my rankings after Thanksgiving, I look at the teams that have top-15 in both categories and usually those combined rankings (very much like OCC does) are usually dead on.
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
by Fighter15 on Oct 30, 2009 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not being sarcastic
and I do agree with your arguments
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden
by BishopWest on Oct 30, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And one to feel not so good about...
According to FO analysis – defence apparently is 31st in the league on 3rd down performance. Anecdotally I can relate to this – seems we often put teams in bad positions on 3rd down and then let them convert anyway…
"Where's Woody? - We need another Darren Woodson
by BoyfromOz on Oct 31, 2009 8:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's strange
The official NFL stats rank the Cowboys 6th with 33% 3rd down conversions allowed (25/75). Do you have a link to the FO data?
by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 1, 2009 4:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Football Outsiders weights their stats.
I think the Cowboys suffer with them for allowing such long conversions and allowing them to bad teams. It’s actually odd that I usually feel better about a 3rd and 5 than a 3rd and 15. That also might be why teams shred us at the end of games and halves.
by Baked Potato Soup on Nov 1, 2009 10:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately it was in their week 7 previews
Which they provide through ESPN insider – so a premium server. (which I really only have for their syndicated content from FO and Scouts inc)
I went back to cut and paste the short segment they refered to but their login services were “undergoing maintenance”.
"Where's Woody? - We need another Darren Woodson
by BoyfromOz on Nov 4, 2009 6:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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