Remember where our team was headed before Tony got rolling vs. Carolina in 2006? Remember where our team was headed before Austin got rolling in Kansas City in 2009? The parallels are eerie, and there are reasons for optimism that the success will be sustained.

1)  Just as Romo changed the team’s fortunes by dramatically upgrading a key position in early ’06, Austin might well do the same in ’09.

Our Wide Receiver corps (pre-Austin breakout) reminds me a lot of our QB play with Bledsoe. It was OK in some games, but never playoff caliber, and had weaknesses (lack of explosiveness) that were magnified by top competition. Remember the pre-heart throb Romo in ’06? His girlfriend had just broken up with him, and he was just a goofy kid with a huge “aw shucks” grin…kind of like Austin’s grin after every play now. Both were un-drafted free agents with a few years in the league, both had shown flashed of promise meriting a slight pay raise in the offseason, both were (initially) Parcells favorites, and both broke out right as the team was headed for a 7-9 season.  You watch: Austin is a handsome guy with bad teeth. If he goes to the Pro Bowl, he’ll get his teeth fixed and start dating actresses.

 2)       Wide Receivers who Break Out in their 4th year and stay good are quite common.

Look at the career arcs of great receivers in our era, and there’s a similar pattern: the first “breakout year” is either Year 4 or Age 25. Part of the reason Jerry doesn’t like drafting WR’s high is because, unlike RB’s, they usually don’t star until their 4th year. Marvin Harrison didn’t have his first 1,000 yard season until year 4. Same for Michael Irvin and Reggie Wayne. T.O. broke out in Year 3, when he was 25. Rod Smith and Donald Driver, the two small school guys to whom we might compare Austin, also didn’t break out until their fourth year. Other than the true super-freaks (Moss, Galloway, Glenn, DeSean Jackson) who can “out athlete” even NFL corners, it takes about 3-4 years for athleticism and skill to come together for NFL wide outs.  

 3)       Austin has the rare ability to make plays even when “covered.”  

Austin’s TD against Tampa and his 2nd TD this week were on back shoulder throws where Austin wasn’t wide open. Tony’s confidence to make those throws is something he has with only one other receiving target (Witten). If you watch the slow motion replays of some of his catches, Austin is excelling at the hand fighting and subtle body movements that happen at the top of routes. Then, he’s not only making the catch, he’s immediately able to make a “football move” and get up field. In playoff football, and against higher level defenses, receivers will rarely get huge separation. That’s why TO (who relied on getting big separation to compensate for so-so ball skills) mostly underperformed in his career in playoff football, and guys like Irvin and Fitzgerald were their same bad selves. Not that Austin is in the Irvin-Fitz category, and he’ll likely never be as good as TO at his peak, but he has qualities that augur well for when he faces elite defenses.  

4)       Austin runs the 10 yard dash incredibly quickly and powerfully.

I don’t know what Austin’s 40 time would be these days, but what he does in the first few steps after the catch demonstrates why 40 times don’t tell the full truth about a receiver’s big play abilities. Some receivers (TO, Rice) come out of their breaks so quickly that they always seem to slip the first tackle. It seems like every time Austin catches the ball, he’s slipping out of a tackle. That’s not a coincidence, it’s a rare ability, and Austin seems to have it.