Cowboys' Playoff Chances, Based on Historical Similarities

The blog on ProFootballReference.com has been doing a "similarity score" breakdown on this year's teams through 6 games. Basically, they compare the 2009 teams to other historical teams based on a set of key stats (metrics listed at the bottom of this FanPost). This week, they looked at the teams that played their 6th game last week, and ranked them based on the likelihood they'll make the playoffs. The Cowboys did very well.

Six games is a small sample size to determine team similarity, and this stuff is not nearly as reliable as Baseball Prospectus player similarity scores, which have gotten to the point where they can predict a player's career arc with a decent degree of accuracy.

However, I thought it was interesting how high we were ranked, and that we compared favorably to a lot of teams that have gone on big second half winning streaks (one of the teams being the late-charging Super Bowl champion NY Giants). That, of course, would be a welcome change for Cowboys fans, as we've gotten used to fading down the stretch in recent years. Plus we're listed ahead of the Eagles, which I always like to see.

What makes me think a result like this is possible is Wade's defense-- it seems to be getting better with each game, and last year's model put on an absolute shut down clinic from Weeks 9-16 (with the obvious breakdown in the last 2 minutes of the Ravens game). So there is precedent for this crew achieving better and better defensive results as the season goes on.

What makes me think that a result like this is NOT possible is the mental mistakes (penalties, miscommunication, etc.), because those flaws have been around for 4+ years and are extremely unlikely to fix themselves within the course of one season without a change in personnel.

So I'm not putting aside money for playoff tickets yet. But I thought the statistical study was interesting.

For those interested, the metrics they used to determine team similarity:

1. Start with 1000 points;
2. Subtract 5 points for every 1 point difference in Points Scored;
3. Subtract 5 points for every 1 point difference in Points Allowed;
4. Subtract 5 points for every 1 point difference in Net Point Differential;
5. Subtract 1 point for every 10 yard difference in Net Passing Yards (that is, passing yards with sacks yards lost included) on offense;
6. Subtract 1 point for every 10 yard difference in Net Passing Yards Allowed on defense;
7. Subtract 1 point for every 10 yard difference in Rushing Yards on offense;
8. Subtract 1 point for every 10 yard difference in Rushing Yards Allowed on defense;
9. Subtract 1 point for every 10 yard difference in Net Passing Yards Differential (Offensive Yards minus Defensive Yards allowed);
10. Subtract 1 point for every 10 yard difference in Rushing Yards Differential (Offensive Yards minus Defensive Yards allowed); and
11. Subtract 100 points for every difference of 1 win.