7 Statistical Nuggets To Think About

Random statistical thoughts and musings after four weeks.

1. Stuck In A Moment And Now You Can't Get Out Of It

Carolina. Leading 13-7 early in the fourth, 2nd and 1 on the Carolina 1, you have the chance to put away the game. The right right thing to do is to call a post pattern where your receivers have to jump to catch the ball - and miss. Not once. Twice.

Denver. Two plays left to try to score a touchdown to tie the game. The right call is to throw the ball to your number-four receiver covered by Champ Bailey. Twice.

2. Solid As A Rock

Hats off to Old Faithful, Jason Witten. Jason has caught 24 of 27 passes thrown at him so far this year. That's a reception percentage of 85%. No one in the NFL last year had a higher percentage. Marion Barber led the league last year with 85% (52 of 61).

3. Running To Stand Still

"We want to be a top 5 rushing offense" Wade declared publicly in the pre-season. Too bad he forgot to send the Memo to Garrett.

Over the first four games, the Cowboys still favor the pass 54% vs. the rush. That is down from the 58% of last season, but not by much. Granted, both Barber and Jones have missed a game so far, but YPA is up from 4.3 last to 6.0 this year. I can't really see a big reason not to run the ball a little more.

The first four games this year saw the Boys rushing 110 times for 665 yards. Last year they rushed 101 times in the first four games, for a less filling 496 yards.

Against Denver, Romo was asked to throw the ball 42 times. When we air the ball more than 40 times, we are usually in trouble. We lost both games in 2008 (WAS, BAL) where Romo threw more than 40 times. And while we won all three 40+ games in 2007 (BUF, DET, CAR) the combined margin of victory in those three games was 9 points.

A healthy Marion Barber had only one carry for two yards in the second half. Wade said he 'didn't know why Barber didn't touch the ball more.' Cool Hand Luke summarizes the situation best: 'What we've got here is failure to communicate.' [Edit: I may have been suckered into this one, see ScarletO's post below]

4. Don't You (Forget About Me)

Oh, how I loved the talk in the off-season about 'spreading the ball around'. Now, as you well know, stats don't lie, so here's a look at how well we've spread the ball so far this year vs. the first four weeks last year.

Couple of points to ponder:

This year, the top three receivers were targeted with 59% of all throws, down from 69% last year. So yes, the ball is being spread around a little more.

However, the 4 wide receivers this year have a combined reception rate of 46%, down from 57% last year. Perhaps this is due to Romo throwing to 'imaginary 7' 6" wide receivers' as Grizz so eloquently put it, perhaps the route running is sloppy, perhaps it's something else altogether. Whatever it is, it is high time for Romo and his WRs to get on the same page. And that goes for Bennett as well.

And here's the thing: Witten is showing everybody that it can be done! Man, 6 weeks ago I talked about the 2 TE set to anybody who couldn't get away fast enough, now I kind of hunker down in corners and avoid eye contact.

5. Here Comes The Rain Again

Without significant improvements, the passing game after four games (990 yards) is on track for a 3.960 yard season. That is so close to last years' 3.988 effort (which included three games by the formidable Brad Johnson), it's not even funny anymore, and has a distinctly 8-8, non-playoff-ish smell.

6. Do They Know It's Christmas Time

Romo has now gone two consecutive games without a touchdown pass for the first time since he took over the starting job in 2006. The good news about this: It looks like Christmas is really early this year, and we should expect sunshine in December!

7. The Long And Winding Road

Next week, we're facing the 0-4 Chiefs. With a little luck we'll be heading into the bye 3-2 and can then hunker down and fix what needs a-fixin', because our schedule will only get more difficult after that. Here's a look at the NFL Strength Of Schedule based on all teams' 2009 record for the remaining 12 (in some cases 13) games.

Note that the 4-0 Saints will play a total of 5 games against teams that haven't won a single game yet this season (2x CAR, 2xTB, 1x STL). Incredible.

Interesting thoughts from foyesboys:

The combined record of the teams the NFC East is playing this weekend is….1-14….one and fourteen!!! Taking out the giants division wins, the combined record of all the teams the East has beat is….0-30……thats CRAZY.

The NFC east could sweep this weekend, have all its teams over .500…and the only team with a win over a team with a win will be the Giants over the Raiders….the combined opponent win total would be 1-44.

This is the most bizarre early season scheduling I’ve ever seen.