"Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs. Are you kidding me? Playoffs?"

At the start of the season I had DC pegged at a 10-6 season and a WC berth.  But I had us at 3-1 at this point, the Broncos being the difference.  But as Raf has shown season after season, there are always big swings so you never quite know who is going to be good or not – Broncos being Exhibit A.    

Of concern that, prior to the Broncos game, the Football Outsiders had DC with the most difficult schedule in the League by a significant margin, based on their DVOA metric. Furthermore, the NFC North is looking strong this year so I don’t believe a 9-7 season will cut it this year, we will need to be at least 10-6.  Not wanting to get too depressed, I decided to break it down further to see what the team needs to do to make it.  

Beat the “easy-beats”

There are no easy-beats in the NFL, but one thing this team has shown an ability to do is beat the teams they should beat (excluding the Brad Johnson “era”).  If they do this they get to 5 wins – KC, Oak, Sea. 

Split the “challengers” 

The challengers for the WC spots are likely Philly, GB, Chi, and Atlanta.  They play both Atlanta and GB – if they win both they give themselves a huge boost, lose both and we would be a long shot.  However, can’t count on both but need at least 1, probably Atlanta at home.  Up to 6 wins. 

Split the “others”

That leaves NO and SD.  SD looks the easier of the two, particularly at home, but they have a nasty habit of starting slow and finishing the season strong.  We need 1 of these to get to 7. 

Break-even in the NFC East

Assuming the Giants win the division, Philly is primary competition for a WC spot.  So the 'Boys need to at least split with them.  But for their conference record to hold up they need to be at least 3-3 in the Beast.  So also need to sweep the Redskins or beat the Giants at home.  If they sweep the Eagles that would again be a huge boost but certainly can’t count on that.  That gets to 10 wins and a probably Playoff berth. 

So if you boil it all down, the Cowboys need to beat the “easy-beats” and split their games against tougher opponents to give themselves a shot.  But the final piece is potentially the toughest – they are down a game in the NFC East – they need to get it back.