Quarterly Report: Dallas by the Numbers

The following is my analysis, however my stats are all obtained from www.coldhardfootballfacts.com .The CHFF team terms these stats "Quality Statistics" because they have shown the greatest congruency with regular and post season success.

Perhaps the most telling stat is the Defensive Hog Index. The DHI attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of each team’s defensive fronts by amalgamating opponent’s Yards Per Rushing Attempt, Negative Pass Play% (Percentage of times that a play ends in either a sack or interception) and the third down success rate.

Overall, the Dallas defence is ranked 17th. This comprises a YPA figure of 4.69 (20th best), NPP% of 5.41 (27th) and a third down success rate of 30.43 (5th). The high ranking in terms of 3rd down% is curious, due to the obvious deficiencies in the other two measures which contribute to the DHI. However what is promising is the marked improvement in the first two categories. After two weeks, Dallas was ranked in the bottom three in each, after struggling against the run in Tampa and playing two games without either a sack or interception. The trend improvement is a very positive sign, as the team with the best DHI has won the Superbowl in each of the three previous years.

Conversely, the Offensive Hog Indexattempts to rank the league’s offensive lines. Dallas ranks at 12th overall, after a 5.95 Yards Per Rushing Attempt figure (league best), 8.63 NPP% (17th) and 35.42 3rd Down% (19th). The strong rushing game has resulted in Dallas averaging more than half a yard per carry than any other team in the league (Tennessee is second). However the offense still has a problem with negative plays, throwing interceptions and enduring sacks which has contributed to the poor third down success rate.

The Bendability and Scoreability Indexescorrelate yardage and points. For example, in terms of Bendability, Denver leads the league by a large margin, having given up 959 yards, and 26 points. This results in a bendability score of 36.88 Yards  per point against. Dallas is ranked 7th in the league in Bendability, with a YPPA of 19.04. After four weeks of play, Dallas is ranked 20th in scoreability, with a 16.71 yards per point scored total.

The two preceding statistics are particularly valuable, as they take into account more than simply points scored, and therefore are reflective in part of field position, and the play of offense, defence and special teams. Dallas’ Bendability score is very promising, and related to their high 3rd down success rate, while our low Scoreability rank suggests improvements need to be made in the red zone and in sustaining drives.

Finally, the Passer Rating Differential Index is simply comprised of offensive Passer Rating subtracted by Defensive Passer Rating. In this Dallas ranks 24th, and is the only NFC East team with a negative differential, which is -16.28 (79.37 on offense and 95.66 on defence).