Playoff Chances: Week 9
by ender0887 on Nov 10, 2009 3:53 PM CST
Email
PrintSome of you may remember me from last year. I am now back again to give you a little information on where we stand on making the playoffs this season. I understand it is still very early in the season, so take this information with a grain of salt. But I thought it would be interesting enough to post.
Let me start by giving you a little background information on the program. The main idea behind it is the "any given sunday" mentality, where every game is a random event in which anything can happen. Games are not decided one way or another based on previous record, home/away status, injuries, or any other intangibles. Every game is considered with a 50% chance of going either way.
Also, last year when I posted these stats there was confusion over what exactly the percentages meant, and I think I now have a better way of explaining it. So at the moment there are 8 weeks remaining, and each week has 16 games (except for this coming one, which has 15) for a grand total of 127 remaining games. This means that there are exactly 2^127 or 1.7 x 10^38 ways the remainder of the season could play out. I am giving you a pretty accurate estimation of what percentage of those possibilities will put each team in the playoffs. Without further ado... the data as of week 9.
For each team, the outcome of their week nine contest, their total chance to make the playoffs, their chance to win their division, and their chance to get a wild card spot.
| Team | Outcome | Total | Division | Wild Card |
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Bills | Bye | 8.92% | 5.78% | 3.14% |
| Dolphins | L Div | 12.85% | 5.82% | 7.04% |
| Patriots | W Div | 78.01% | 70.31% | 7.70% |
| Jets | Bye | 31.08% | 18.09% | 12.99% |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Ravens | L Div | 25.91% | 5.86% | 20.06% |
| Bengals | W Div | 73.73% | 54.06% | 19.67% |
| Browns | Bye | 0.62% | 0.04% | 0.58% |
| Steelers | W Conf | 73.98% | 40.04% | 33.93% |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Texans | L Div | 35.12% | 3.93% | 31.19% |
| Colts | W Div | 97.05% | 93.38% | 3.66% |
| Jaguars | W Conf | 28.36% | 2.58% | 25.78% |
| Titans | W | 0.94% | 0.11% | 0.83% |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Broncos | L Conf | 79.76% | 67.33% | 12.43% |
| Cheifs | L Conf | 0.72% | 0.32% | 0.40% |
| Raiders | Bye | 1.59% | 0.54% | 1.05% |
| Chargers | W | 51.35% | 31.81% | 19.54% |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Cowboys | W Div | 80.94% | 53.29% | 27.65% |
| Giants | L | 36.74% | 17.12% | 19.62% |
| Eagles | L Div | 57.26% | 28.16% | 29.10% |
| Redskins | L Conf | 2.83% | 1.43% | 1.40% |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Bears | L Conf | 24.63% | 9.56% | 15.08% |
| Lions | L Conf | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.16% |
| Packers | L Conf | 26.75% | 3.29% | 23.46% |
| Vikings | Bye | 94.19% | 87.13% | 7.07% |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Falcons | W Conf | 56.03% | 10.03% | 46.00% |
| Panthers | L Div | 9.89% | 0.75% | 9.14% |
| Saints | W Div | 97.90% | 89.17% | 8.73% |
| Buccaneers | W Conf | 0.49% | 0.05% | 0.44% |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Cardinals | W Conf | 69.36% | 65.88% | 3.48% |
| Rams | Bye | 1.68% | 1.52% | 0.16% |
| 49ers | L | 23.37% | 17.84% | 5.52% |
| Seahawks | W Conf | 17.76% | 14.76% | 3.00% |
As you can see, the Saints and Colts lead with highest percentages in a race to see who can clinch a playoff spot first. While the Browns, Titans, Cheifs, Lions, and Bucs are in a race to see who gets mathematically eliminated first.
I have been running this program all season, waiting for the right time to spring the results on you guys. So I have been taking down the changing percentages all season. This is how each game affected our chances...
| Opponent | Type | Outcome | Overall | Division | Wild Card |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Conference | W | 44.81% | 28.23% | 16.58% |
| New York Giants | Division | L | 33.61% | 18.48% | 15.13% |
| Carolina Panthers | Conference | W | 41.80% | 20.32% | 21.48% |
| Denver Broncos | None | L | 32.59% | 11.96% | 20.63% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | None | W | 37.52% | 12.66% | 24.87% |
| Bye | Bye | Bye | 38.11% | 17.28% | 20.83% |
| Atlanta Falcons | Conference | W | 50.77% | 24.53% | 26.24% |
| Seattle Seahawks | Conference | W | 64.16% | 32.79% | 31.38% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Division | W | 80.94% | 53.29% | 27.65% |
As you can see, by far this week has had the biggest increase on our playoff chances all season. And below, for those of you who like pictures and charts, our playoff chances over the season (in chart form).
Thanks to everyone for reading. I hope to keep this up until the end of the season if you guys enjoy it. Until the last few weeks of the season anyway, when everyone knows exactly what needs to happen to clinch a playoff spot.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
22 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
This is the time for this kind of thing
Later in the season, you’ll have teams that have clinched, but there still may be some “chance” of the team not making the playoffs. For example, the Pats clinched in 2007 after their 11th win but were eliminated in 2008 after their 11th win.
haha
i just realized playoffs is spelled wrong in the image i used… by the way, nice post
by CowboysFan4Life on Nov 10, 2009 5:47 PM CST up reply actions
I think we have a great shot for the playoffs like the data says
but to do so, we are going to have to make sure to get up for each week and beat the teams we should (aka Redskins, Raiders, etc.). This week’s game in GB will show a good amount about this team’s focus because it is a game that could easily trap a team that is sitting on its laurels after a great division road win.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
Thanks for the post
I know it’s any given Sunday in the NFL, but it’s interesting to see a well constructed breakdown on the post season probabilities. It adds to the fun of the season. IMO
You can't stop Patrick Crayton, you can only hope to contain him.
those %s look about right to me
due to the fact we’re doing well with tiebrakers right now and have 3 very winnable games left.
Of course, if we lose the green bay game and philly beats sandiego, things change considerably. If the opposite happens, we’re a runaway favorite for the division.
Another good site with similar information
is NFL Playoff status. This may even be your site, ender. Here is what they say about the Cowboys.
This is actually pretty interesting
Anything can happen, of course! The Redskins were 5-2 last year.
You sit atop the division, but you don’t have the best division record. With that said, the Redskins are in a tailspin, the Giants have some major questions with a 4 game losing streak, and you just beat us. I’d be feeling pretty good if I was a Cowboy fan!
"What did it feel like? That collision, I didn't feel nothing, because he was pretty much defenseless. It was like running through a cardboard box. Seriously. Cardboard box."- Sheldon Brown on his pounding of Reggie Bush in the '06 Playoffs
Absolutely
And I don’t count the Eagles out. They get better as the season goes on. The biggest concern they must have is the secondary because of injuries and the suspension. But that’s a dangerous team.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
Awesome stats.
Reminds me of betting line logic…I’m in.
But the basic facts are thus:
- Boys have a 3-game lead on Wild Card Pretenders
- Our ‘Boys have a great team…not good, great.
- You really want Brett Fraud or NO’s D? Over our potential?
We’re just touching on the greatness of this team.
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
No...
but New Orleans actually has a pretty good defense.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Nov 13, 2009 8:44 AM CST up reply actions
The last 4 weeks have been unbelievably good for the Cowboys
including the bye, when we gained on the division for the first time in the season despite not playing a game.
Starting with week 6, the rest of the NFC East teams are 2-9, with those 2 wins being the Eagles wins over the other 2 teams in the division. The rest of the division has not won a game outside the division since week 5. During that time the top 3 teams have flipped places, with the Cowboys going from 2 games down and looking like a long shot for the wild card, to being 1 game up and looking like a strong chance to win the division.
The last 4 weeks could not have gone better for the Cowboys (except if the Redskins had beat the Eagles lol).
not to mention
the Bears, Packers and 9ers have tanked as much as possible.
Its really been crazy. The last 4 sundays, aside from the Eagles win over Washington, have 100% gone our way
good point, and the Falcons too
went 2-2 during this stretch including a win against the Redskins.
Not only is a division title looking very promising, but if we somehow managed to blow that we’d still be in great position for a wildcard the way the rest of the NFC is going.
and i guess
for NO, MIN as well
those teams have practically locked up playoff spot.
I’m honestly surprised. I thought the nfc was better than this. I thought the Bears or packers or both would be more competent than they are.
In the East, I guess I predicted this would happen somewhat (but i thought washington would actually win the division so…yea). I said all offseason they’d miss their DCs (true of the giants), but i didn’t see the Giants’ average OL play holding them back. Philly, I’m sorry, it comes down to McNabb. Hes now turned in three crappy performances by my count – Raiders, Redskins, Cowboys games – and its hurting them. An innacurate qb can make a solid fooball team look average,and mcnabbs been doing it for a while now imo.
Only 4 teams in this conference seem legit right now, but i bet philly will jump back up there. The Giants? I’m not so sure. The Kenny Phillips injury killed them.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
