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Cowboys offense vs. penalties (Miles Austin effect)

After watching this team for 8 games, I had come to the conclusion that when this team doesn't beat themselves through offensive penalties, they have a lethal offensive unit. I set out to see if the statistics back this up. In each game I looked through the drive logs. I calculated the penalty yards by taking the yards gained on the play that was called back + the penalty yardage. For offensive PI I just counted the penalty yardage. I realize this isn't the best way to account for penalty yardage, but I think its important to take into account the hidden yardage in plays that were called back. I also didn't include some of the game ending drives we didn't score on.

To be fair, its tough to take the Giants and Broncos games into account - they are the "Bad Romo Games" - where he pretty much stunk so that I think it doesn't seem like the stats would follow. Specifically the Broncos game, cause the offense just crumbled.

Here are the game by game drive logs, penalty yards on that drive, yards gained per drive and turnover. The last column gives the scores in our non penalty drives and penalty drives.

 

game drives penalty yards yards per drive turnovers scores
TB 9 0 43 4tds, 2fgs
1 15 26 0
NYG 11 0 32 2 INT 4 tds 1 fg
1 28 12 1 INT 0
CAR 5 0 39 1 td 1 fg
1 5 74 1 fg
1 10 42
1 29 33
DEN 8 0 25 INT 1 td
1 5 14 1 fg
1 10 58
1 11 9 fumble
KC 6 0 38 fumble 2 tds 1 fg
1 5 66 1 td 1 fg
1 10 7
1 12 32
1 14 79
1 17 46 missed fg
ATL 5 0 28 1 td 2 fgs
1 5 41 2 tds 1 fg
1 10 7
1 15 63
1 24 80
SEA 8 0 37 fumble 3tds 1 fg
1 10 62 missed fg 0
1 15 37
PHL 6 0 25 INT 1fg
1 5 27 2 tds 1 fg
1 10 30
1 10 55
1 15 37

 

Here are the results for the season so far. I also separated the first four weeks and last four weeks. I included a separate category without the Denver game as well.

 

season
penalties scores drives scoring percentage
0 penalties 16 tds 9 fgs 54 46
0 penalties w/0 Denver game 15 tds 9 fgs 46 52
5 penalty yards 4 fgs 5 80
10+ penalty yards 1 fg 5 tds 18 33

 

 




first four weeks (pre-Austin)


penalties

scores
drives
scoring percentage
0 penalties
9 tds, 4 fgs  30
39
0 penalties w/0 Denver game 8 tds 4 fgs 22
54

5 penalty yards
1 fg
2
50
10+ penalty yards
1 fg
6
18





















last four weeks (Austin's arrived!)


penalties

scores
drives
scoring percentage
0 penalties
6 tds 5 fgs 25
44
5 penalty yards
3 fgs
3
100
10+ penalty yards
5 tds
12
42

 

These stats tell a tale of two seasons - the first four games, penalties pretty much ended our offensive drives. The last 4, penalties had little effect - even the long ones. Whats the difference? I think its gotta be the deep threat that Miles provides. Remember in 2007 that we still had a heavily penalized unit, but could often convert third and longs? Back when TO was a true #1? Well, Miles has opened up the field for the other receivers, and we've had no problem either overcoming big penalties with a quick strike or working our way back 10 yards at a time. Obviously Romo has been much better too, so i guess its hard to determine whose the biggest reason.

Also, this is pretty solid evidence that when we're not killing ourselves with penalties, the offense is very efficient. 52% scoring rate is pretty solid and shows we have a legitimate top flight offense, though I haven't looked at them for other teams. And really, our scoring rate the past 4 weeks when penalized is very good, much better than I thought it would be.

After putting this together, I've gotta say I have even more respect for OCC. Its hard to diligently look through stats for 8 games.I probably made a few mistakes.

Another couple random notes:

This team gets very few 3 and outs. Most of the drives gain 2+ first downs. But that would be the topic of another post.

Our turnovers have happened IMMEDIATELY, right at the start of drives. We really haven't turned the ball over after getting 2 first downs.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Good Work

But I’m not entirely sure about one of your conclusions and you yourself point out why.

You say “Also, this is pretty solid evidence that when we’re not killing ourselves with penalties, the offense is very efficient. 52% scoring rate is pretty solid and shows we have a legitimate top flight offense, though I haven’t looked at them for other teams.”

We all, including myself, when we have some sort of statistical tidbit, I think tend to look at the Cowboys in a vacuum and not put them into context with the rest of the league. I think you’re right, I think those numbers show that the Cowboys are efficient, but primarily because we’re the 6th highest scoring team in the league, not because of your research.

That being said, I think you do have a good point on the importance of Miles Austin, a point that is supported by your research. I’m not actually writing this comment to criticize you, so much as just a statement emphasizing the importance of context in statistics.

by rhodri2112 on Nov 14, 2009 8:50 AM CST reply actions  

I'm not really sure where to find that data

but if you think about it, 52% scoring is solid especially cause we’re doing it consistently (unlike a team like Philly).

Are we elite? No…The Saints, Vikings and COlts are putting up tons of points. We’re probably at a similar level to the Chargers and Steelers, but thats just a guess..

by foyesboys on Nov 14, 2009 2:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Austin good, Penalties bad?

by Musiccitynorm on Nov 14, 2009 9:36 AM CST up reply actions  

haha its not as straightforward as i wanted it to be

I really thought there would be a clear, obvious, ridiculous difference between drives where we are penalized and drives where we aren’t.

Basically, you can separate the stats into weeks 1-4 and weeks 5-9.

In weeks 1-4, our offense wasn’t in sync and we had no big play wr that scared defenses into doubling him.

Week 5 was Miles’ breakthrough game, and you see a blatant improvment in our ability to convert long yardage situations.

In games 5-8, we had 15 drives with penalties and we scored 6tds and 3 fgs on them.Thats totally backwards.

In fact, I should include that in my post

by foyesboys on Nov 14, 2009 3:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Good work FB

One thing that might be worth looking at is our 3rd down conversion rate. It has picked up significantly over the last four games.

For the season so far we are at 41.6%, ranked 14th in the NFL. The last four weeks we’ve converted 47.2%, which would be good enough for 3rd in the league after IND (51.0) and MIA (50.8).

I would bet that after a lot of the penalty situations you described, we converted the resulting 3rd down – but I’m too lazy (today) to dig through the data to prove it.

by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 14, 2009 12:04 PM CST reply actions  

Games 6-9

Was the time the improvement in defense , penalties and Romo’s confidence seemed to become quite noticable. Things began clicking. Games 1-4 the penalties were killing us.

by oldboysfan on Nov 14, 2009 4:22 PM CST reply actions  

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