Seven Statistical Nuggets To Take The Edge Off

Random statistical thoughts and musings as I seek distraction from the Packers game.

1. Does this make me a nerd?

During games I always have a nifty little Excel file open on my PC called 'Passer Rating' into which I faithfully enter the passing stats after every throw for both Romo and the opposing QB. Why do I do that? Well, apart from piping in with passer ratings during the open game threads, I like to keep a close watch on the Passer Rating Differential (Romo's rating - Opposing QB's rating). Here's why:

Dallas Cowboys Passer Rating Differential, 2009

Notice any correlations? Since 2007, with Romo under center, our record with a positive PRD is 26-1. The one loss coming in the fateful Arizona OT game in 08 (Romo: 116.2, Warner: 104.3) in which Romo broke his pinky. With a negative PRD, over the same period, our record is 1-11, the sole win coming in a game that rips a big hole in my statistical space-time-continuum, the 5 interception Buffalo Game in 07 (Romo: 39.5, Edwards 74.1).

Highest positive PRD: +82.1 in the week 9, 07 game against the Eagles (Romo: 146.1, McNabb: 64.0). Highest negative PRD: -84.5 in this year's Giants Game (Romo: 26.1, Manning: 110.6)

2. What exactly constitutes a balanced offense?

More often than not, the term 'balanced offense' is used when talking about the run/pass ratio. I would propose that a balanced offense is less about a run/pass ratio, but more about the ability to use multiple options to gain yards. In Cowboy land, we have started using the term Romo Friedly Offense to describe our game. Here's why:

• Cowboys vs. Falcons: 5 players with more than 30 yards from scrimmage
  
• Cowboys vs. Seahawks: Romo throws completions to 10 different receivers
• Cowboys vs. Eagles: Five different receivers have at least 38 yards
• Cowboys vs. Packers: Uh, lemme think about that a little more.
  

So far this season, 7 different Cowboy players have contributed more than 350 yards from scrimmage. Count 'em:

Cowboy Players with > 350 yards from scrimmage through week 10, 2009

Now this may be impressive, but is it relevant? Wouldn't you rather have a Chris Johnson, Ray Rice or Adrian Peterson on your team? The correct answer is: only if it's your fantasy team.

Through week 10, there are 7 players in the NFL with more than 900 yards from scrimmage C. Johnson (1,353), Steven Jackson (1,146), A. Peterson (1,116), R. Rice (1,113), Maurice Jones-Drew (1,080), DeAngelo Williams (1,075) and Cedric Benson (925). Despite the Vikings' 8-1 record, the combined W-L of these players' respective teams is only 32-30.

In principle, it's good to be Romo-friendly. Here's a look at what a 'balanced' offense can do for your W-L record:

Team W-L record, ranked by number of players with > 300 yards from scrimmage, week 10, 2009

3. Mid-term Team Efficiency Report Card (3 nuggets for the price of one!)

[Caveat: Since it's quite a hassle to find all these numbers, all the stats in this section are through the Philly game only. I've added some stats for the Packers game where appropriate.]

It's just past halftime in the NFL, and we've seen all sorts of half-time reviews, which usually read something like this: "This offense scored an NFL leading number of touchdowns, that receiver had so many yards, this RB ran for even more yards, this team allowed a franchise low amount of points, etc.". So in this special mid term report card, we'll look beyond the absolute numbers of production and look at team efficiency, on both sides of the ball.

Traditionally, efficiency has been judged by yards and points gained or allowed, but those numbers can be misleading.

Yardage alone doesn't mean a lot. The 2008 Steelers' offense finished 22nd in yardage, but ended up 12-4 and won the Superbowl. The Jets rank an impressive No. 3 in yards allowed this season, yet have only managed a  very unimpressive 4-5 record.

Team efficiency can't be judged with just one stat, so here's where we take a deeper dive into the efficiency with the week 9 numbers, and look at three different groups of stats, Field Position, Drive Efficiency and Scoring Efficiency.

A. Field Position

Through 8 games, the Cowboys have held opponents to an average starting position of 26.1 per drive, ranked 4th in the NFL, and only marginally behind the league leading Steelers at 25.7. Our special teams are a big part of this, Raf recently analyzed our kicking/punting game in depth and I've been all over our kickers in these posts, so I'll leave it at that.

Unfortunately our own starting position per drive is 27.7, ranked 24th in the league. Duh. Chicago leads the league at halftime with 34.0. That 6.3 yard difference almost translates into one less 1st down required per drive. More work to do there, Coach Joe D.

Also, our +-0 Turnover Ratio is not helping us achieve a better field position. -3 on Turnovers against GB doesn't help either.

B. Drive Efficiency

"You have to be able to get first downs to keep the football ", Tony Dungy once said. On Offense, the Cowboys are looking pretty sharp and marching up and down the field seemingly at will. Not only are they moving the ball at a league leading 6.4 yards per play, their 71.4% Drive Success Rate (measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown) is ranked a respectable No. 7 in the league, and their percentage of 3-and-out drives is a league low 13%. Now if only we could improve our 3rd down conversion rate (41.6%, ranked 14th), there would be no stopping us.

3rd down conversion rate vs. Packers: 25% (3/12).

Wade Phillips was overheard summarizing his new job description as DC: "No matter where the other team gets the ball, you have to stop them ". Statistically speaking, Wade has not being doing a bang-up job so far. The Cowboys are allowing 5.3 yards per play (No. 18) and are allowing a 67.2% Drive Success Rate (No. 19). On the brighter side, our 25% 3-and-out percentage is ranked 11th, and Wade's miserly 34.7% 3rd down conversions allowed is ranked fifth in the league.

Packers 3rd down conversion rate: 47% (7/15).

C. Scoring Efficiency

On offense, we're racking up the yards like few other teams, but are we doing it efficiently? 40% of our drives end with a score, that's good enough for 6th place in the NFL. But we have to work hard to get a score: With 14.9 yards required for every point scored we're ranked only 16th in the NFL. And once in the Red Zone, we're finding it hard to score a TD. Only 50% of our Red Zone possessions resulted in a TD, only good enough for 18th in the NFL.

RZ Efficiency vs. Packers: 33% (1/3). Yards required per point vs. Packers: 39.7. Yup, tighten it up Jason.

As much as we have to work on offense to score, on defense we're making our opponents work even harder. Only 29% of our oppenents drives end in a score (Ranked 11th), and they have to move the ball 17.7 yards for every point scored (Tank you, D. Buehler, M. McBriar and Special Teams). "Bend but don't break" is a good description of our Defense - unless our opponent makes it into the Red Zone! 58.8% of opponent Red Zone posessions result in a TD, bad enough for No. 25 in the League. Teams below us: Jaguars (59%), Chargers (59%), Texans (67%), Packers (70%), Bears (74%) and the once mighty and proud Giants (76%).

Packers RZ Efficiency: 100% (2/2)

Dallas Cowboys Team Efficiency Summary week 9, 2009

***

Amy Reese, a very welcome distraction.

via dougorama.net

4. Quick, off the top of your head, how many false start penalties does Flo have?

8? 10? More? The chances are pretty good that you're wrong. This handy little site has the penalties listed for each player. Since this may have been the last game this season that our OL has lined up with all 5 original starters, here's a look at how our O-Line starters look in terms of penalties and (credited) sacks allowed:

Cowboy O-Line starters, Sacks allowed and penalties through week 10, 2009

5. Strange Sightings reported beyond the Line Of Scrimmage

This just in: Opposing players are scared to go beyond the LOS because of what they say is lurking there. They claim strange encounters in the last 9 games have taken place with a previously unseen, pony-tailed creature, and report at least 15 physical confrontations. Irritated fans reported seeing a creature with a similar hairdo on national television recently. Time to bring in the stat police.

Sightings of blond, pony-tailed players during defensive snaps

Looks like the coaching staff have finally found a role for Bobby, and if the coaches trust him, I guess I'll do the same.

6. Is there something wrong with the water supply along the I-95?

Interstate 95 is the main highway on the East Coast, paralleling the Atlantic Ocean from Maine to Florida. 8 NFL teams have their homes along the I-95, the Patriots, Giants, Jets, Eagles, Ravens, Redskins, Jaguars and Dolphins. Through week 4, these teams combined for an impressive .645 winning percentage (20-11). Since week 5 these same teams have a combined winning percentage of .415 (17-24). The only team with a winning record in both periods are the Patriots (3-1, 3-2), and they probably get their water supply from Canada. Somebody better call Jack Bauer.

7. No more Energizer Man

If you're like me when watching a football game, your eyes are always glued to where the action is. I seldom take notice of players who are not directly involved in the action. In 2008 one player was on the field for 1,037 of 1,046 defensive snaps, highest among all defensive players. Through the Philly game, that same player had missed a grand total of one (1!) snap out of the 545 defensive snaps this season. Unfortunately, his batteries ran out with an injury in the Packers game. Seldom seen but always there: Ken Hamlin.