Playoff Chances: Week 10
by ender0887 on Nov 18, 2009 10:15 AM CST
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PrintI am back again to give you all an update on what exactly that loss to Green Bay did to us and our shot at making it to the playoffs. In case you don't know what I'm talking about, take a look back at my post last week which was my first of the season and will explain your questions about what exactly this is. Here is how the playoff chances in the league stands after week 10...
| Team | Outcome | Total | Division | Wild Card |
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Bills | L Conf | 4.92% | 4.24% | 0.68% |
| Dolphins | W | 20.49% | 14.02% | 6.47% |
| Patriots | L Conf | 70.86% | 66.45% | 4.41% |
| Jets | L Conf | 19.91% | 15.29% | 4.62% |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Ravens | W Div | 36.47% | 7.43% | 29.04% |
| Bengals | W Div | 85.45% | 71.82% | 13.63% |
| Browns | L Div | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.05% |
| Steelers | L Div | 59.20% | 20.75% | 38.46% |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Texans | Bye | 32.37% | 2.08% | 30.30% |
| Colts | W Conf | 98.74% | 95.77% | 2.98% |
| Jaguars | W Conf | 38.24% | 2.10% | 36.14% |
| Titans | W Conf | 1.30% | 0.06% | 1.24% |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Broncos | L | 68.74% | 53.45% | 15.30% |
| Cheifs | W Div | 1.15% | 0.55% | 0.60% |
| Raiders | L Div | 0.22% | 0.07% | 0.15% |
| Chargers | W | 61.87% | 45.93% | 15.93% |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Cowboys | L Conf | 72.96% | 48.03% | 24.93% |
| Giants | Bye | 39.99% | 23.45% | 16.54% |
| Eagles | L | 49.31% | 24.92% | 24.40% |
| Redskins | W | 5.73% | 3.60% | 2.13% |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Bears | L Conf | 13.91% | 3.24% | 10.66% |
| Lions | L Div | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.01% |
| Packers | W Conf | 42.11% | 2.72% | 39.39% |
| Vikings | W Div | 98.17% | 94.04% | 4.13% |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Falcons | L Div | 41.97% | 3.34% | 38.63% |
| Panthers | W Div | 17.06% | 0.68% | 16.38% |
| Saints | W Conf | 99.55% | 95.98% | 3.56% |
| Buccaneers | L | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.16% |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Cardinals | W Div | 81.15% | 76.17% | 4.98% |
| Rams | L Conf | 0.34% | 0.31% | 0.02% |
| 49ers | W Conf | 32.21% | 20.64% | 11.57% |
| Seahawks | L Div | 5.38% | 2.87% | 2.51% |
In the AFC, no one is really challenging the Patriots for AFC East supremacy, the Bengals are starting to run away with the AFC North, the Colts have all but locked up the AFC South, and the Chargers have decided to put up a fight against the Broncos for the AFC West.
In the NFC, the Cowboys are the leaders in the East but the Giants and Eagles aren't too far behind. The Vikings have all but locked up the North, just like the Saints in the South. And there really isn't anyone to challenge the Cardinals in the West.
I would expect to see this season's first mathematical elimination this week or next (we could possibly do it to the Raiders on Thanksgiving) and the season's first playoff clinch could be coming soon as well.
And then here are the Cowboys chances over the entire season...
| Opponent | Type | Outcome | Overall | Division | Wild Card |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Conference | W | 44.81% | 28.23% | 16.58% |
| New York Giants | Division | L | 33.61% | 18.48% | 15.13% |
| Carolina Panthers | Conference | W | 41.80% | 20.32% | 21.48% |
| Denver Broncos | None | L | 32.59% | 11.96% | 20.63% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | None | W | 37.52% | 12.66% | 24.87% |
| Bye | Bye | Bye | 38.11% | 17.28% | 20.83% |
| Atlanta Falcons | Conference | W | 50.77% | 24.53% | 26.24% |
| Seattle Seahawks | Conference | W | 64.16% | 32.79% | 31.38% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Division | W | 80.94% | 53.29% | 27.65% |
| Green Bay Packers | Conference | L | 72.96% | 48.03% | 24.93% |
And in chart form..
So in the end, I think we can realize that this loss to Green Bay did not hurt our chances at the playoffs too much. What hurts is that we all know we would be in much better shape with a win. However, with a big division game against Washington this Sunday I can assure you that this time it will help or hurt our chances much more.
In a completely unrelated side note, I am a Cowboys fan that has lived in New Jersey my whole life, right in the middle of Giants and Eagles territory. I have attended a few Cowboys games in Giant's Stadium and even one in the old Veterans stadium (what a nightmare) but I am proud to announce that this Sunday will be my first Cowboys game as a HOME fan. I am flying in to see the behemoth stadium and the Redskins game in person. I am very excited, so they better win for me!
Thanks again to everyone for reading. Like I said, I will do this for a few more weeks if you guys are interested in this information, but once we get to the last couple weeks of the season it is a little pointless because everyone knows what needs to happen to clinch playoff spots.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Do you have any way....
Of showing what the precentage would be had they won this last game?
I figured with Atlanta and Philly losing, it’d have jumped pretty high.
So...
I reran the program with the same outcome to week 10, except the Cowboys beat the Packers. Our overall chances for the playoffs would have risen to 92.25%, with a 66.37% chance at winning the division and 25.87% chance at a wild card spot.
Relateable
As a Dallas fan living in northeastern PA, and after have attended school in central PA, I have dealt with my fair share of Giants and Eagles fans. I also have attended a game at both the Giants Stadium(04, I think) and in Buffalo(07? The Monday Night Miracle game). However, this weekend I will be attended the Dallas/Washington game in the brand new stadium. After only attending the old stadium twice when I was somewhat younger(8 and 16 respectively, and I’m only 22 now so…), both of those occasions were during the off-season. Can’t wait to see that monster stadium in person, and hopefully it results in a Dallas victory.
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