Cowboy / Eagle game analysis - using Drives instead of pure stats

by mgsmith100 on Nov 3, 2009 2:14 PM CST Comment 12 comments

Below is a "different approach" to analyzing the games with the Eagles, using drive analysis instead of just pure stats.

I went back and looked at the drive charts for each game this year, looking at the Eagles and their opponents and the Cowboys and their opponents. I broke the scoring drives into categories: Long Drive (drive starting from the 39 or longer with no play over 35 yards), Short Drive (drive starting at 40 or long with no play over 35 yards), Turnovers (those drives that started with a turnover without a direct TD, regardless of length of drive), Big Play Offense (all drives that had a play over 35 yards, regardless of where it started), Big Play Defense (defensive touchdowns on Turnovers) and Big Play Special Teams (touchdown from returns). If a play was designated a Big Plays (BPO, BPD, BPS, Turnovers), I classified it as such and did not fall into Long or Short Drives

For the Eagles on offense, they scored on 35 out of 88 drives. The amazing fact is only 6 of the 37 scoring drives came on long plays and only 5 of the 37 scoring drives came on short drives! 26 out of 37 scoring drives came on Big Plays / Turnovers! Of the 26 scoring drives coming from Big Plays, 1 came from BPST, 3 came from BPD, 10 came from Turnovers and 12 came from BPO. Of the 12 from BPO, 5 came from Jackson, 3 from Celek and 3 from Maclin. I think the takeaway from here are the Big Plays to Jackson and the fact only 6 out of 88 drives came from a long field!

For the Eagles on Defense, they allowed 23 scoring drives out of 94 drives. 7 scoring drives came from Long Drives, 8 from Short Drives, 5 from TO, 2 from BPO and 1 from BPD. Bad news is the Eagles are not beating themselves, good news is it seems like you can mount a long / short drive on them.

For the Cowboys on offense, the tale of the tape is different when compared to the Eagle offense. Cowboys had 85 total drives, scoring on 35. They had a whopping 20 Long Drives, 3 Short Drives, 2 score off of TO, 8 drives from BPO, one play BPD and 2 from BPST (Crayton of course). What is encouraging from this is the ability for Dallas to make long drives and keep the Eagles off the field or, if they do not score on either long or short drives, to punt it and pin the Eagles back. It does not seem like the Eagles can score on a long field except for Jackson.The discouraging is the scores resulting from TO’s (this maybe due some of the BPO’s scores after a turnover).

For the Dallas on Defense, they were also stingy on defensive scoring. The other team scored on 24 of 85 drives. 14 on Long Drives, 2 on Short Drives, 6 on TO’s, one on BPO and one on BPD. The number of long drives are discouraging but when compared to the BPO it says this defense is bend but do not break.

One other note, I went back through the 2008 / 2009 season looking at the Eagles losses. What I saw was the Eagles seemed to always lose when the number of passes were doubled compared to the number of runs. In those situation, it seemed like either the Eagles running was anemic, Eagles got behind early or in some cases Reid just got pass happy. Donovan McNabb is not good in these situations as he is not very accurate with his shorter passes.

Just to summarize, the Eagles tendencies on offense is the Cowboys strength on defense (Eagles BPO and anemic Long Drive Capability vs. the Cowboys bend but do not break defense). The Cowboys offense can be a problem for the Eagles defense if they can sustain a couple of first downs and punt it for a long field or just drive it for a few field goals (of course taking a few long shots when they are near mid field). The Cowboys should play bend but do not break and double up on Jackson with the corner they want to protect, and put their best corner on Macklin. Cowboys need to play the run first (while doubling Jackson) to turn them into a one dimensional team and make McNabb beat them on short passing. The Eagles seem to make more hay with turnovers than the Cowboys, and obviously this is biggest key because of the Eagles noise / crowd and the Cowboys psyche.

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Nice work

I really enjoyed this.

by gaz0425 on Nov 3, 2009 2:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff.

I can’t wait until Sunday night.

by Baked Potato Soup on Nov 3, 2009 3:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Although it reminded me of some of my calculus classes,

I enjoyed the read non the less. The conclusion at the end is good stuff. Stop the run and double team DJ on defense, hold on to the ball on offense. If we can do this I like our chances.

by thepainster on Nov 3, 2009 3:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Very insightful

This is the kind of stuff that the soundbite mediots just don’t bother to look up. There is so much more than just the “surface” stats like yardage, points, etc.

by mrbelk on Nov 3, 2009 3:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Should be a good game

An Eagles offense that struggles to sustain long drives but relies on the big play, against a Dallas Defense that is prone to allowing long drives but doesn’t allow many big plays. Something has to give.

The Knights season may have just ended, but the Cowboys year is just begining!

by aussie_cowboy on Nov 3, 2009 4:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

hope this methodology is accurate

if it is (assuming a wash on turnovers) then we will be happy Sunday night.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate"

by angie'sdad on Nov 3, 2009 5:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well done

I have also been impressed with Dallas sustaining drives this year. That was not a hallmark in the past. It seemed to be “boom or bust”. Very good stuff.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Nov 3, 2009 8:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Turnovers

This is the one, and maybe the only, key to the game. Philly is nearly tops in the league in generating turnovers. Romo has 3 pick-free games in a row (though the fumble this last week was clearly his fault).

If the Cowboys can take care of the football, they should win the game. The Eagles cannot win in a game where they have to march up the field.

The only other factor I would mention is that Garrett must run the ball regularly, and with authority. One way to slow the rush is to pound the Eagles undersized D. Cowboys are the more physical team, but Garrett must establish it. We should pick our spots with Romo rather than have him throwing from the shotgun all the time. That would play into the Eagles hands.

by VAfan on Nov 3, 2009 8:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs