Seven Statistical Nuggets To Stew Over

Random statistical thoughts and musings from a zen-like state of calm as I think only positive thoughts about December.

1. 'Tis the season to be jolly.

"The only way to approach next month is 'It’s in the past'. This is a different team, and I hope we are showing people just that. I really don’t give a damn about what happened 10 years ago. I like us right now." - Keith Brooking

No further stats required.

2. What's going on on third and long?

Through eleven games this season, Dallas has allowed a 36.6% 3rd-down conversion rate (53/145), and is ranked an okay-ish 12th in the NFL. But what's puzzling me is the nature of the conversions.

The eye-ball test suggests that we've allowed an overproportional amount of conversions on third and long. Let's look at the facts.

Opponent 3rd down conversions by down and distance, 2009

The conversion averages are about what you would expect and are fairly close to the NFL averages (see the graph below). From the numbers, the 3rd and (very) long conversions allowed don't appear to be a particularly big issue.

Graph courtesy of AdvancedNFLStats.com

So why do we all start holding our breath, muttering silent prayers or simply closing our eyes when our defense faces 3rd and very long? Here's why:

Opponent completion percentages by down and distance, 2009

In third and very long situations, opposing QB's have completed a mind-boggling 25 of 27 passes against us. Fortunately, only 7 of those passes resulted in conversions, which brings to mind the Madden 10 quote "How can you get the 1st down when you complete the pass short of the sticks? What are they thinking?".

In third and very long, our DBs are playing about a mile back in the hopes of keeping the play in front of them, and crucially, in front of the 1st down marker. In the meantime, our D-line is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the OL, but not with much success. 

So the next time we're defending 3rd and very long, hold on tight to your beer, cause you'll need it: It is almost guaranteed that there will be another long completion - just pray that it's short of the sticks. Couple of other random observations:

• In the 113 pass attempts in 3rd down situations, we've had only one interception (Sensabaugh vs. Philly).
  
• Not included in the 53 of 145 completions: 6 Penalties resulting in 1st downs (1x very long, 1 x long, 2x medium, 2x short)
• Total yards given up on 3rd downs: 935, or 6.4 YPA. I don't know whether this number is high or low relative to other teams, but consider that excluding 3rd downs, our defensive YPA is significantly lower at 4.9.
• Not surprisingly, on 3rd and short, run/pass is evenly split at 13/15. Also not surprisingly, on all 3rd downs with 4 or longer to go the run pass is 10/98, with 3 of the runs being QB scrambles.

3. Wake me up before you go go

In the 1st quarter against Oakland, Tony Romo once again started a game slowly, completing only 2 of 8 passes for 43 yards and a passer rating of 45.3. With the beginning of the second quarter, the floodgates opened and he went 16-21 for 266 yards and a passer rating of 149.4.

Somebody wake this man up a little earlier.

Consistently inconsistent: Tony Romo Passer Rating by quarter, 2006-2009

4. Clutch: Exactly what you need, exactly when you need it.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, talk about 'clutch performances' is heating up as playoff spots are on the line for many teams. The 'clutch quarterback' is not a formally defined term, but in common usage it refers to a quarterback who makes important positive plays for his team at key moments and in the tightest situations.

Traditionally, 'clutchness' was defined simply by looking at the raw number of comebacks led by a QB in the fourth quarter or in overtime. DavidH22 points out in his Captain Comeback post that Romo has an impressive 10 such comebacks under his belt already.

But instead of just looking at the number of comebacks, let's look at four different stats that come close to describing clutch situations in a game, and together add up to a pretty good clutch performance overview.

• 4th Quarter QB rating with the score +/- 7 points: Late game, high pressure situations. If not now, when?
• QB Rating last two minutes of the half: Can the QB manage a two minute offense efficiently?
• 3rd and long conversions: It's third-and-long. Your team needs eight yards or more to move the chains. Whatcha gonna do when they come for you?
• Red Zone QB rating: How does a QB perform in the Red Zone throughout the game?

2009 Regular Season, min 17 pass attempts on 3rd and long

Couple of observations: Good QBs play a good game regardless of situation. Tony Romo's Red Zone woes are closely linked to the overall Cowboys Red Zone disease: Dallas is ranked 22nd in the league in Red Zone TD conversion with 48.8%.

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The remaining season schedule is easy on the eyes

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5. Something is different about Wade's defense this year

Statistically, Wade's defenses have looked fairly similar over the last couple of years, going all the way back to his days as DC in San Diego. In fact, Wade's San Diego and Dallas numbers from 05-08 look way too close to be mere coincidence. Top in the league in Sacks, above average in Yards Allowed and Yards per Play, about average in Points allowed and Defensive Passer Rating, and way below average in Interceptions.

Obviously, getting a boatload of sacks doesn't always mean you're the best defense, but pressuring the QB and flushing him out of the pocket should in principle benefit your defense.

Wade's defensive philosophy is all about pressuring the QB to create defensive plays - blitzing till the lights go out, even on 1st downs, pressure packages from different angles and all sorts of other weird stunts that should get you sacks like they were being offered up at a firesale. This type of play can result in the secondary getting burned for big plays on occasion, and Wade's defenses have traditionally been weaker in the secondary, whether due to scheme or player material I don't know.

Yet this year, the defensive numbers look markedly different. Granted, the season is far from over, but the perhaps most important defensive stat has changed dramatically: On Points Allowed we are currently ranked 3rd in the league.

Wade Phillips Defensive Stats San Diego 05-06 & DAL 07-09

At the current pace (since week 3) we'll end up in the mid forties on Sacks, so that would still be good. Our lowly YA, YPA, DPR and INT's make our outstanding Points Allowed all the more astonishing. Look to Raf's most excellent front page article for more details on Wade's Defense.

6. Immovable Object, meet Stoppable Force.

The Dallas Defense makes oppenents work very hard to score points. With 19.8 yards required for every point allowed, Dallas ranks 2nd in the NFL (just below the Colts at 19.9). The Giants on the other hand are giving it up like it's spring break. Their 12.2 yards for every point allowed ranks dead last in the NFL. Should make for an interesting game on Sunday.

Bend but don't break: Leading Defenses 2009

7. Lady Luck is smiling on these teams

This year, the Colts have won six of their 10 games by four or fewer points — including three straight escapes in the last four games. Houston’s Kris Brown missed a potentially tying 42-yard field goal as time expired, Bill Belichick lost his much-discussed fourth-down gamble and Baltimore’s Joe Flacco threw an interception on the Indy 14 with 2:49 left in the game, thwarting any chance at a possible go-ahead field goal a week ago. Also, in every single one of their last 5 games the Colts have trailed at one point in the 4th quarter.

For the season, the Colts are 6-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. Including last season, they are an incredible 14-1 in games decided by 7 points or less. I guess that's one way to get to a 20-game regular-season winning streak.

Other teams kissed by Lady Luck: Miami, 4-1 this season (and 11-3 over the last two) in close games. Cincinnati, Raf's pre-season pick, is 5-2, Jacksonville is 5-1.

Lucky? Perhaps. Or as Thomas Jefferson said: "I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it."

The Steelers and Ravens have drawn the short end of the stick, both going 1-4 this season prior to their matchup last night. No surprise that that game ended up being decided in OT. Ravens improve to 2-4, Steelers drop to 1-5 in close games. All the Steelers' losses this season have been close, losing 1 by six points and 4 by three points. That must suck big time.

The Cowboys and Giants are both 3-2 this season, the Eagles are 2-2 (and were 1-5 last year), the Redskins are 2-5 after yet another close loss.

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Sources:

1. Randy Galloway, star-telegram.com; 2. NFL Gamebooks, AdvancedNFLstats.com; 3. ESPN.com; 4. NFL.com, 3rd and long: Stats LLC, Red Zone: USAToday.com; 5. ProFootballReference.com; 6. NFL.com; 7. Sportsnetwork.com