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Seven Statistical Nuggets From The Land Of Sunshine

Random statistical thoughts and musings to celebrate our ascent to the top of the NFC East and quietly gloat over the win against the Eagles.

Star-divide

1. Is it too early to talk playoffs?

Probably. But this little nugget should make us all feel a little better: When we've started 6-2, our record for making the playoffs is 10-1. The exception came in 1986 when Danny White broke his wrist after starting 6-2. The team ended 7-9. Hat tip to Terry for pointing out our playoff record at 5-2 last week.

2. Move the chains, gentlemen

For all the flak Garrett has been getting at times for his run/pass ratio and the over-/under utilisation of one or more of our RBs, here's a stat that should make us all very happy.

NFL leaders, First down percentage, Running backs with >200 rushing yards through week 9, 2009

NFL Rank
Name ATT YDS 1st 1st %
1. Marion Barber 98 447 29 29.6
2. Ricky Williams 85 456 25 29.4
3. Tashard Choice 51 249 15 29.4
4. Felix Jones 41 298 12 29.3

 

3. "911 services have been restored in most areas. Please dial 919 if problems persist."

Nice to see RW having a fairly good game against the Eagles. While the RW discussion has centered mostly on his reception rate, one thing has been consistently overlooked: No pass thrown his way has been intercepted yet. That may have something to do with the quality (or lack thereof) of the passes thrown his way, may have something to do with RWs wild contortionist movements to try to get at the ball or simple pure luck.

While a receiver is usually measured by yards and reception rate, looking at receiver production through the passer rating system can also be enlightening:

Dallas Receivers: "Receiver Ratings" through week 9

Player  Thrown At  Rec  COMP%  Yds
 Y/TA
  TD
 INT  Rec. Rating
Austin 46 27 58.7% 612 13.3 7 1 148.1
Barber 11
9 81.8% 77 7.0 0 0 99.4
Hurd 10 6 60.0% 125 12.5 1 1 95.8
Crayton 43 22 51.2% 365 8.5 3 1 93.7
Choice 19 14 73.7% 123 6.5 0 0 90.5
Witten 56 43 76.8% 391 7.0 1 2 86.2
Williams 45 19 42.2% 324 7.2 2 0 82.1
Bennett 19 9 47.4% 90 4.7 0 0 61.3

 

4. All Hail Joe DeCamillis, King Of Hidden Yardage

Tony Sparano on the importance of hidden yardage: "The rule the way I learned it is 100 yards equals seven points. It isn't exact, it isn't 100 percent, but at the end of it, when you start adding it up, it's pretty close. You can make an argument that give or take a few yards, that's usually where the problem lies."

Football isn't only a game of yardage. Even more, it's a game of field position. That's why hidden yardage is so critical. Special Teams' play often determines who wins the field-position battle. Let's look at where we stand on kicking and returning:

Kicking

  • Punts: Punts pinned inside the 20 are hidden-yardage victories because being pinned back close to the end zone limits the opposing offense's play calls. Dallas leads the league with 57% (20 of 35) of punts landing in the 20. Our Special Teams allow only 6.8 yards per punt return, a respectable 10th in the league.
  • Kickoffs: Touchbacks on kickoffs are ideal, simply because they do not allow opponents to move beyond the 20. Despite not recording a Touchback in Philly, David Buehler still leads the league with 17 Touchbacks. Dallas is 2nd in the NFL in touchback percentage with 36.2, behind only the Panthers, and 4th in the league with a miserly 20.4 avg. return allowed.

Returning

  • Punts: Punt returns of 10+ yards are considered good because they essentially mean one less first down the offense needs to score. Thanks in large part to Crayton's two TD returns, Dallas ranks second in the league with a 14.0 punt return average. Sadly, we also lead the league in another punt return stat, that of fumbles on punt returns, with 4.
  • Kickoffs. At the end of the day, anything past the 20-yard line on kickoffs is gravy. Unfortunately, the Cowboys like their gravy by the teaspoon, where other teams like it by the gallon-jug: With a 21.9 Kickoff return average, we rank a disappointing 22nd in the league.

5. Yards After Catch

Yards after catch are a reflection of both the receiver's ability to run and elude tacklers after the catch as well as the QB's ability to deliver an accurate ball that gives the receiver a chance to get upfield.

Since we're celebrating with the good stuff this week, it should come as no suprise that through week 9, the Cowboys lead the league with 7.7 YAC per reception.

Raiders (6.4), Packers (6.4), Chargers (6.3) and the Eagles (6.0) round off the Top 5 in the league. Bottom 5: Saints (4.2), Bengals (4.2), Chiefs (4.2), Browns (4.2) and Jaguars (4.1).

****

The sun is smiling on the Cowboys this week

Tampa_bay_buccaneers_v_dallas_cowboys_ufrptheivkbl_medium

****

6. Love me some shotgun

In 2007, the Patriots became the first NFL team to run the shotgun formation on more than 50 percent of their plays. In theory, the shotgun gives defenses an easy key (especially for d-line and linebackers) to focus on the pass rush and not worry about the run as much. But the Patriots did ride it to a 16-0 record. So much for the theory.

So let's take a look at Gerrett's playbook this year and see how it compares to last year. In 2008, Garrett had the shotgun on the field for 43.9% of the Cowboys offensive plays (excl. knees & spikes). It's slightly down to 39.9% this year.

In 2008, 79.8% of all shotgun plays were pass plays. No significant change this year, as the number edges up slightly to 81.4%. The shotgun, or absence of it, should be an easy telegraph for defenses of which play to expect, particularly with the blatant obviousness that Garret runs pass plays from it. So I would expect the number of sacks to increase in the shotgun situations as our opponents bring heavy pressure with the pass rush.

In both years the sack rate on shotgun plays is higher. Interestingly, while it has fallen to 4.1% this year on shotgun plays, it has actually increased on non-shotgun plays (1.5% to 3.1%). Detailed numbers below:

Playcalling 2008 vs. 2009 (excl. kneels & spikes)


2008 2009 (through week 9)
Shotgun Non-Shotgun Shotgun Non-Shotgun

Total Percent Total Percent Total Percent Total Percent
Total Plays 422 43.9 540 56.1 194 39.9 292 60.1
Pass Plays 337 79.8 209 38.7 158 81.4 105 36.0
Sacks 22 5.2 8 1.5 8 4.1 9 3.1

 

7. There's a first time for everything

  • Tony Romo recorded his 20th 300+ passing game. Especially memorable as it came against the Eagles.
  • After recording his first NFL ST tackle against Seattle, David Buehler recorded his first two-tackle game on ST yesterday - on his own kickoffs no less. It's now official, I have a man-crush on Buehler and it's not just because of his porn-stache :-)

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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First!!

OCC you rock! This thread is anticipated as any on here and I figured I would christen it with a 1st.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Nov 9, 2009 7:26 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Dude, I'm so hyped from last night I just had to get this one out immediately!

I watched the game from 2:00 am to 6:00 am here, 90 minutes of sleep and then off to work where I squandered the whole morning writing this post.

by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 9, 2009 7:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too

Yeah I was up to watch the game at 2 in the AM as well and I am watching it again right now!!!

by djones3448 on Nov 9, 2009 8:18 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Needs more cleavage

Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey

by Seanrude on Nov 9, 2009 8:06 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Romo is moving closer to his 100th TD pass of his career

Boy am I hoping he reaches that milestone on Thanksgiving so I can say I saw his first TD pass and his 100th TD pass in person.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Nov 9, 2009 9:54 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Is there a more meaningless stat?

1st down percentage???

And the receiver rating is extremely misleading. Let me ask you a question. When we absolutely have to get a first down, who is Tony/Redball gonna go to? The third lowest receiver rating guy is who. And in this game, the 2nd lowest was money as well.

And lastly, YAC has always made me yak! Throughout the ’90’s, SF was lauded as the example and their receivers always got the YAC argument thrown against Irvin & Co. But no WR was better at the clutch catch than Irvin. Just ‘cause Aikman (and now Brees) can actually throw the deep ball rather than depend on short throws doesn’t make them lesser QBs or play with lesser WRs. A very system-dependent stat.

Still, I love the column…just keeping the stats in perspective.

He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson

by Fighter15 on Nov 9, 2009 10:29 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

YAC

true – depends on what kind of system you run, but i think there’s still some players that are a lot more dangerous with the ball in their hands so you adapt your system to try to get them the ball in situations they can do something with it. In terms of great WR’s YAC is just another stat to consider – not the most important but a stat that will probably give some clue as to a WR’s abilities. still i think anyone would love to have Irvin as a receiver even if he’s not one of the best at YAC.

by Scoobay on Nov 9, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Of course there are more meaningless stats

One that I particularly enjoyed dreaming up was the girlfriend jinx where I correlated Tony Romo’s girlfriends and their appearance at games with the game outcomes. Relevance: zero, but I thought it was fun.

But as stats go, you are right, some of the stats on these posts are fairly meaningless and trivial (“Receiver Rating”? pleeaaase) – others aren’t.

I find it amusing to look at some of the stats that are off the beaten path, in the hope that you guys will find them either entertaining or enlightening and ideally a combination of both. I also simply like any stat that has the Cowboys at the top, but simply posting the division standings seven times in this post may have been daring, but not very original.

by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 9, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you and enjoy your column immensely

More “stats” like #1 and #3, and definitely more cheesecake.

He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson

by Fighter15 on Nov 9, 2009 1:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

She looks like a classic DCC.

I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles...
http://twitter.com/BloggingTheBoys

by Aaron Novinger on Nov 9, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why would that be so meaningless?

I may be a sucker for 1st down percentage stats, but first downs can win you the game. It showed last night. A huge thing that makes Witten Witten, is that he always leans over the first down marker when being tackled. And, I’m pretty sure all of RW’s catches went for first downs.

And YAC does much more than show that it is a system-dependent stat. Often, it shows the athletic ability and, sometimes, the toughness of the runner.

I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles...
http://twitter.com/BloggingTheBoys

by Aaron Novinger on Nov 9, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe the 1986 team that started off 6-2

finished 7-9 (not 9-7) after White’s wrist injury. That was a painful second half of the season.

But I love the receiver rating chart. Remember one of the int’s to Witten was off his ankle!

Felix is looking dismal on KO returns (I notice no one is complaining that Jones only touched the ball 4 times, I guess winning is a great deoderant). Will they start giving Ogletree more opportunities to return KOs?

by DavidH22 on Nov 9, 2009 10:50 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

You Sir are correct of course. I must have switched the numbers, but have now corrected them. ty

by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 9, 2009 11:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

some really interesting stats there

those 1st down percentages are crazy….I’m not sure what to make of them – i don’t feel like we’ve straight up run the ball well since week 3 or so. But Choice has been a first down machine, Felix has been good for multiple long runs, and barber sees a lot of short yardage, so maybe it makes sense.

Great analysis on the special teams.

There is a little bit of cause-effect with the shotgun though. We have sooooo many long yardage situations due to penalties, those stats are going to be high, especially with it allowing a smaller qb in romo to see the field and the blitz. But the fact that we run so much outside of shotgun is kinda surprising – it looks like a blatant tel based on those statistics what we’re doing.

by foyesboys on Nov 9, 2009 1:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Good points FB

on 1st down percentages, Aaron makes the point above about Witten and his ‘leaning into the marker’: 22 of Witten’s 44 receptions have been for 1st downs. How the Eagles could not cover him on that last drive on 3rd and 3 is completely beyond me.

The Shotgun numbers are largely situational stats and are heavily skewed by the fact that our offense’s default mode when time is running out is the shotgun. Examples:

vs. Eagles, starting at 1:32 left in the 2.Q: 8 successive shotgun plays. Result: Field Goal
vs. Seahawks, starting at 2:36 left in 2.Q: 7 successive shotgun plays. Result: RW TD
vs. Falcons, starting at 2:48 left in 2.Q: 8 successive shotgun plays. Result: PC TD

By quarter over the 8 games so far, the percentage of Shotgun plays looks as follows: Q1: 34%, Q2: 55%, Q3: 28%, Q4: 39%

by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 9, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

huh

i’m a little surprised that the Q2 numbers are so high, but maybe thats just because there are only 8 games so far and not a ton of data. Maybe we’ve just allowed some long drives defensively that quarter so the 2 minute drill has a bigger impact on the stats.

I feel a little more comfortable now that I’ve seen that though, it does show that the shotgun is more of a situational thing. And when you consider how many long yardage stuations we have, I’d bet 80% of our shotgun plays come when the defense knows we’re passing anyway.

by foyesboys on Nov 9, 2009 3:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and also

we have a really good 2 minute offense that generally gets a lot of play in so thats a factor too.

by foyesboys on Nov 9, 2009 3:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Great stats and I really think that the ST plan was

for David Buehler to kick the ball higher than longer to give coverage time to get down the field and swarm the returner. There’s no way that the league leader doesn’t put the ball in the endzone with 5 chances if he’s trying to.

by ImpactNate on Nov 9, 2009 4:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

probably

but that being said it didn’t seem to work for us. May want to rethink that one next time around

by foyesboys on Nov 9, 2009 9:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Could have been the field too

I saw some guys slipping and sliding-hard, almost frozen natural (I think) turf might be tougher to kick strongly off

by Realist Larry on Nov 10, 2009 1:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah BUDDY...

Man I love this game when the Cowboys win…I hate that little skin-headed Emmitt Smith, even though he was a Cowboy…He needs to keep his traitor ass pie-hole shut if he dont want the Cowboys bringing the smack back on him…Him and Aikman both ought to just STFU and analyze the game instead of giving their “opinions” on the this and thats…I just want to say this, and I know a lot of yall are gonna think me wrong, but shrugs if anex- player is going to start bringing his smack towards the Cowboys he needs to expect to get smacked back…The only one of the triplets(and i may be wrong???) who hasnt trashed the Cowboys this year was Irvin…I read something about how Aikman was seriously considering going to play for the She-Gals…Truth to tell, if thats true, then I 1). Am glad he didnt go and do something that stupid after winning 3 SB rings with the Cowboys(reminds you of the sad thing that SF did to Montana)…and 2). If he had done that, I would have still considered him a Cowboy in my memory, but I would have cursed his traitor ass like a rented mule, at stump pulling time…I mean where the hell does Emmitt Smith get off talking trash about the Team that MADE him the HOF player that he was…I think its a fuggin shame that he couldnt have been content to retire as a Cowboy, and thus be entered into the HOF as one…No, he had to go and join a silly little franchise of Arizona, just to show his stupidity, and to get back at Jerry Jones…His little bitter has-been self didnt accomplish much, except for the fact that he got a busted shoulder playing against(sad to say) his old team…But the game!!!…all for the sake of watching the Cowboys tear up that She_gal ass…damn it was sweet…git er done, Boys…There was probably 6 or 7 thousand Cowboys fans watching the Jerrytron, and when Barber and Witten lit up the offense with their running and catching, you would have thought there was like 50,000 in that place(CowBoy Stadium)…Anyways, now we are where we havent been for quite some time now…ALONE at the top of the NFC East…a full game ahead of the Eagles, and a Game and a game and a half ahead of the Gnats…They said we couldnt do it, but we did…They said we couldnt slow down Jackson, but we did…They said our chances of making the playoffs was slim…Well they just improved them quite a bit this week, didnt they?…Last night, watching the game, I was reminded of where I watched the First of Dallas Cowboys SB…I was sitting in a church lobby, watching the Cowboys destroy Buffalo 52-17…I only went because I liked this cute little girl(since then she has become my wife, and I want to say I LOVE YOU Tiffany)…Since then I have been a very vocl fan of the Cowboys…and win, loose, or draw, I am a Cowboys fan…I dont care if we played the NO "Aints right now, in NO I would bet a $1000 on the Boys anyday…I AM A HOMER…But honestly peeps can it get any better than this?…can it honestly?…Cmon dawgs, now that we are on top by ourselves lets shout out a big “HELL YEAH” for the Boys…FEAR THE STAR

by Hawgz, Bugz, and FilthyFowl Hater on Nov 9, 2009 5:03 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yes I Will Yes

That was James Joyce who posted, right?

Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey

by Seanrude on Nov 10, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Or William Faulkner

But who has time to figure it out???

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Nov 11, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"I prefer not to."

-Bartelby the Scrivener.

I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles...
http://twitter.com/BloggingTheBoys

by Aaron Novinger on Nov 12, 2009 12:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OCC!!

Great post.. ’Nuff said.

It was pretty clear before..but I’m willing to stamp it now.

 You are the most valuable and hopefully appreciated poster on BTB not named Raf, Aaron, Mike, Raul or Dave.

You are the king of the fanpost and we are lucky to have you here providing good insight and a lot of your own valuable time.

Thank you!!!

by SDTrueblue on Nov 9, 2009 7:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed Occ. Great Stuff

Alway a fun read. I’m surprised to didn’t point out the number of receivers involved in this years success compared to past years.

Always a fun read. I’m surprised you didn’t mention the number of receivers involved in this years success. The way Romo is spreading the ball around, the defenses have no idea where they are going to hit next. Thanks again.

t

by oldboysfan on Nov 9, 2009 8:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Awesome.

Are the power rankings out yet though? :]
Those (plus these posts) are my favorite reads. :D

by xailin on Nov 9, 2009 9:25 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Dude - you rock!

Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - John Wooden

by BishopWest on Nov 9, 2009 11:50 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

These are always awesome

And I will continue to say this after every week. Too good not to.

I do think folks may want to look at what Jason Garrett’s done this year before we start throwing him under the bus. It’s nice to see some of the good things he’s doing acknowledged. I think he’s starting to regain his RHG status.

And I too have a man crush on Buehler for both his performance on the field and his excellent 70’s porn stache.

Epic Fail since 1985

by the red scare on Nov 10, 2009 1:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

One Cool Stats Post

Not surprised by anything really, except maybe the sacks when under center being more this year.

McBriar is quietly having another ProBowl season, he has the highest % of punts inside the 20 and only one touchback.

The 4 punt fumbles have only resulted in 1 lost I think. So it’s not as bad as it looks.

Whatever award they give to the top ST coach (since they have awards for everything) DeCamillis should win it considering what a mess the unit was last season.

You can't stop Patrick Crayton, you can only hope to contain him.

by APerfectStar on Nov 10, 2009 1:44 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Point One:Playoffs

You probably expect me to say it’s early, back off….well, that’s true-

But the big news for the Boys is the step back taken by other NFC teams, in case we lose a few and are forced into a Wild Card race.
The Bears and Packers have struggled, remember when San Fran was 3-1?
Seattle and Carolina have never figured it out and probably won’t come racing back.

What was looking like a tougher NFC this year is sinking back to mediocrity, and all the Boys need to do is get in the playoffs, then anything can happen.

by Realist Larry on Nov 10, 2009 1:45 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting sack stats:

I was listening to Sirius NFL Radio today, and they pointed out that when a team takes a sack on a drive, they only score a TD 7% of the time. The normal rate is 22%, and I think that includes drives with sacks in it, so it is probably slightly higher without a sack.

Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 37 times already this year, which is just insane. This past Sunday was the first time this year they have scored a TD on a drive when he was sacked.

by Baked Potato Soup on Nov 10, 2009 3:50 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

even his HC has said that.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Nov 11, 2009 7:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I love the title, it made me LOL.

Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!

by cowboy78 on Nov 11, 2009 11:19 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Great post

Love numbers 1 and 2 and the intermission between 5 and 6.

by illcowboy on Nov 11, 2009 6:37 PM CST reply actions   0 recs


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