Playoff Chances: Week 13

Apologies again for a late post. The depression from witnessing the Giants game in person lasted longer than expected, so I couldn't bring myself to look at what that loss did to this team in the playoff race. But I am back and ready to show you all how much that game hurt. Here are the playoff chances for the league... Oh and once again, if there is any confusion over what this is or how I got these results, please look back at my previous posts.

So I will start my analysis with the Cowboys and the NFC East. The loss really does throw the division up for grabs again. However, both the Cowboys and the Eagles have a much better shot to win the division than the Giants. The Eagles currently have a higher chance because they have a better conference record, and a better division record. Also, if the division comes down to a three way tie (which is a somewhat likely scenario) we would be at a disadvantage in the three-way head to head tiebreaker because we were swept by the Giants.

The Redskins have now been officially eliminated from playoff contention, so I guess that is one less thing to worry about. In the NFC North, the Vikings lost but are still most likely going to win the division. The Bears are on the brink of elimination, but the Packers are highly favored to get a wild card spot. And our loss to them definitely hurts our chances at getting a wild card spot. Which is probably why the Eagles have a better chance than us for a wild card spot.

In the NFC South, the Saints have clinched the division, leaving the Falcons and the Panthers with very small chances to make the playoffs. It is very sad that our head to head wins against these teams won't help us very much. In the NFC West, the Cardinals get closer to clinching the division, while the Seahawks and 49ers get closer to being eliminated.

In summary, the NFC playoff race has essentially come down to seven highly probably teams. The problem is, out of the Packers, and the two teams in the NFC East that don't win the division, one of them will not get a wild card spot. And looking at our schedule and seeing that we will probably have maybe two more wins, its a little hard to be optimistic right now. Sorry for the pessimism.

Now quickly, the AFC picture. In the AFC East, everything is still up for grabs in a pool of mediocrity. It is the only division to not have a team eliminated from playoff contention yet (although the Bills are close). The Patriots lead the race slightly, but really everything is still possible. But it does not seem likely that any of them will get a wild card spot. In the AFC North, the Bengals continue to romp and the Steelers continue to fall (I know they lost again last night but this simulation was run yesterday so that is not taken into account here). And the Ravens still have a legitimate wild card shot. In the AFC South, the Titans and Texans both closer to elimination and the Jaguars are looking like a real likely wild card contender. In the AFC West, the Broncos and Chargers keep battling, and whoever doesn't win the division will probably get a wild card spot.

Here is how the Cowboys chances have changed over the season...

And the same thing in chart format...

via i576.photobucket.com

As you all can see, our chances to win the division took a significant hit. But in the NFC East, anything can happen. All we can hope for is that a couple more wins will get us where we want to be. This is crunch time, lets see how this team performs in these last four intimidating games.

This weekend, we can hope for the Packers to lose to the Bears, that will help us out a bit. But for the Giants/Eagles game, I have not worked out which scenario would be better for us. Assuming worst case scenario, (we lose) if the Giants win, they come even with us and the can bury us with their tiebreaker. If the Eagles win, they take first in the division. Either way, if we lose we are out of first place. So that only leaves one option... WIN!!