Seven Statistical Nuggets To Keep Hope Alive

Random statistical thoughts and musings as I pop those antidepressants at an alarming rate.

On a more personal note, while I slowly succumb to my annual December depression, I find these posts harder and harder to write as our playoff chances slowly dwindle. Let me know how you feel about these posts in the poll below.

1. History in the making.

Never in the Superbowl Era have there been more 300+ yards passers in a season than this year (includes adjustments for number of teams and strike shortened seasons), and the season isn't even over yet. But what's even more astounding this year, is that the winning percentage in 300+ passing yard games is an unprecedented .671. Never in the Superbowl Era has that percentage been higher, in fact 300+ passing games in the past were largely a hit and miss affair: seldom has the winning percentage strayed far from the .500 mark.

300+ passing yards games per NFL regular season, Superbowl Era, min. 26 teams

The period in NFL history through 1977 is occasionally referred to as the Dead Ball Era, as it was ruled by low scores and stifling defensive play. Many of the most famous defenses of modern NFL history – Pittsburgh's Steel Curtain, our very own Doomsday Defense, Minnesota's Purple People Eaters and the Rams' Fearsome Foursome – all played during that time.

In 1978 the NFL instituted sweeping rule changes to increase the pace of scoring which resulted in significantly higher offensive statistics, particularly in the passing game. Some examples: the league made it illegal for defenders to contact receivers more than five yards off the line, penalties for intentional grounding were reduced, offensive linemen were allowed to open their hands and extend their arms while pass-blocking (read: hold), a seventh official was added to monitor pass interference downfield, and referees were instructed to stop the play when a QB was in the grasp of an opponent.

More recent rule changes have put more emphasis on protecting the quarterback, but also calling contact down the field on defensive backs, making the passing game easier than ever before.

League Leaders 300+ passing games by QB through week 14, 2009

2. The resurrection of Roy Williams. Too little, too late?

Roy Williams appears to be back from his extended sabbatical. Since the Philly game in week 8 (exactly 1 year after his first game for the Cowboys), he has scored 4 TDs and improved his completion rate to 53.7%.

Roy Williams Receiver Ratings 2009

3. When even stats don't make sense anymore.

Regular readers of this series know that Passer Rating Differential (Romo's rating minus Opposing QB's rating) was a highly accurate predictor of game outcomes.

Since 2007, with Romo under center, the PRD was accurate 37 times out of 39. The only two games where PRD did not accurately reflect the game outcome were the loss to Arizona in OT in 08 (Romo: 116.2, Warner: 104.3) and the  win against Buffalo in 07 in a 5-Romo-interceptions game. (Romo: 39.5, Edwards 74.1). Over the last 4 games, the PRD predictor is 1-3. Looking at the NYG and SD games, one thing is for sure: The Cowboys have lost two in a row, and the passing game is the least of the team's worries right now.

Dallas Cowboys Passer Rating Differential, 2009

4. Bombs Away!

7 of Miles Austin's 9 touchdowns this season have come on receptions of more than 20 yards, and he shares the league lead in this stat with Desean Jackson. It is no coincidence then, that Dallas ranks as one of the top teams when it comes to scoring TD's from outside the Red Zone. Gunnery Sergeant Romo: Bombs Away!

20+yards offensive TDs, 2009

The Philly and Dallas 'quick-hit' offenses rely heavily on the long strike. In terms of percentage of all offensive TD's, they rank No. 2 and No. 3 in the NFL, behind only the Buffalo Bills, whose offense might better be described as a 'quick-hit-and-miss' offense, scoring 9 of a miserly 19 offensive TDs from beyond the 20.

Special mention needs to go to Chris Johnson from the Titans, who has seven (!!!) 20+ rushing TDs this year, as well as two 20+ yard receiving TDs. Only once in the Superbowl Era has a player scored more 20+ rushing TDs in one season, Denver's Terrell Davis in 1998 with 10.

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Abigail Klein, ever the optimist, is excited that we're still in the playoff hunt

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5. Target Distribution

Romo is completing only 54.3% of his passes to the top three wide receivers (Austin, Williams and Crayton), but is averaging a robust 9.0 yards per attempt to those receivers. Romo has a 108.2 passer rating throwing to the top three wide receivers this season, despite RW's shaky start.

Surprisingly, Romo only has a 87.6 passer rating when targeting Jason Witten, largely because 3 passes to Witten were picked. Romo does complete 74.8% of his passes to Witten, which is the third highest completion percentage (behind Jones and Barber) to any of Romo’s targets that have more than 10 receptions. Romo’s passer rating to TE's drops to 83.9 when Bennett and Phillips are thrown into the mix.

Romo may want to target his running backs more, as he has a 90.7 passer rating throwing the ball to them, and perhaps more importantly, he completes 75.4% of his passes to the running backs while averageing 6.2 yards per pass attempt. (Hat tip to ScarletO for the commentary, I just updated the numbers).

Here's how the Cowboys receivers stack up so far this season.

Receiver Ratings through week 14, 2009 (min. 10 Cmp)

6. The lost art of tackling?

What a difference a few missed tackles can make. Think about the missed tackles on Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw and Domenik Hixon in the Giants game and how they hurt us. In fact, if you review the game highlights of the Giants game, you'll see that the Dallas Defense appears to have missed tackles on all four touchdowns. Conversely, think about the missed tackles on Austin over the season, and how they've helped us.

Make contact, wrap up your opponent (use of arms is encouraged), take him down. How hard can that be? Our secondary, particularly Terrence Newman, has been getting some flak here and elsewhere for going for the highlight reel takedown or interception, only to watch the ball carrier spin out of the tackle and carry on. Many a troll has derided our team for not tackling in pre-season.

So what do the stats say? Missed tackles are not an official NFL statistic but Pro Football Focus has been tracking them for two seasons. Here's how our Secondary stacks up in missed tackles:

Missed tackles by CB's and Safeties through week 13, 2009

Missed tackles are spread fairly evenly across our secondary. Sensabaugh (6), Jenkins (6), Scandrick (5), Ball (4) and Newman (4), Hamlin (2) and Watkins (1) have all missed their share of tackles, but overall, we're not that far off some of the leading teams in the league.

League leader in missed tackles? Philly's very own Asante Samuel with 15. To quote Bye Dawk : "I hate… H-A-T-E… HATE Asante’s lack of tackling ability". I kinda like it though ...

7. Ouch!

Romo has been sacked more often this year than in any previous season and is also on track to get hit more than ever before. This cannot be good. quincyyyyy, draft us some OL-men!

Quarterback Sacks and Hits allowed on Tony Romo, 2006-2009

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Sources: 1. Pro Football Reference 2,3,5,7. NFL Gamebooks 4. Pro Football Reference 6. Pro Football Focus