The case for Jason Garrett as Head Coach (and against Wade)
by ScarletO on Dec 15, 2009 2:51 PM CST
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The Cowboys offense is currently 3rd in total offense (7th in rushing and 6th in passing) in the NFL. The Giants (10th in rushing and 8th in passing) and the Saints (5th in rushing and 3rd in passing) are the only other teams that rank in the top ten in both rushing and passing offense this season.
Garrett was the offensive coordinator in 2007, when the Cowboys finished the season 3rd in total offense. That season, the Cowboys were ranked 17th in rushing and 4th in passing. Jason has guided this rushing offense from 17th in 2007, 21st in 2008, to 7th in rushing at this time.
Garrett has accomplished this with an offensive line in rapid decline. The line surrendered 25 sacks in 2007, 31 in 2008, and is on pace to yield about 35 this season. The inconsistency of the line led to a 2007 heartbreaking playoff loss, a season-ending collapse in 2008, and is in the process of repeating history.
For all of the talk of how Sparano was really the brains behind Jason’s success in 2007, this edition of the Cowboys’ offense has looked better in many ways.
Turnovers in 2007: 24. In 2009: 21 (projected).
Romo threw 19 interceptions in 2007, and has thrown but 7 so far this season. That is progress, growth, and so forth. Is that not what you want to see from a coach and a player?
Yards per game in 2007: 365.7. In 2009: 391.1, and this is with much greater balance in the offense. Even the time of possession is better this season, 30:34 in 2007, and 31:08 in 2009.
Now look at the defense from 2006 to 2009:
Parcells’ 2006 pass defense permitted opponents’ quarterbacks to amass a 83.2 quarterback rating, while collecting 34 sacks, 18 interceptions, and yielding 219.1 pass yards per week. In 2007, Wade’s defense sacked opposing quarterbacks 46 times while intercepting 19 passes. Opposing quarterbacks only earned a rating of 75.1 while passing for 213.1 yards per game.
Big pass plays dropped from 14 passes of over 40-yards to 7 big pass plays after Wade (and Hamlin) started in 2007. Big running plays of over 20-yards increased from 5 in 2006 to 9 in 2007 (also 0 runs of at least 40-yards in 2006 compared to 2 in 2007).
In 2009, the Cowboys defense (before playing New Orleans) has yielded 8 runs of at least 20-yards. The pass defense is permitting opposing quarterbacks to post a rating of 86.1, which is eerily similar to the 86.2 rating last season. For the second straight season, the pass defense has collected few interceptions: just 9 interceptions through 13 games (8 in 2008). Opposing quarterbacks are now passing for 229.2 yards per game, and have only been sacked 30 times though 13 games.
The offense is improving. The defense has gotten worse or has not improved since 2006, Parcells’ last season. Wade has changed 7 starters (Olshansky, Ratliff, Brooking, Spencer, Hamlin, Sensabaugh, and Jenkins) since 2006, and the defensive numbers are virtually unchanged.
Since Wade has been here, Dallas has drafted two defensive players (Spencer and Jenkins) in the first round. Add those picks to the other four first round picks on defense selected in the first round by the Cowboys, and the lack of defensive improvement is hard to swallow.
Just as Romo, Witten, and Austin are not the problem on offense, Jason Garrett is not the problem on the coaching staff. Garrett is working with an offense that has exactly one player drafted by Dallas in the first round: Felix Jones. Jason is obviously getting the most from his players.
I doubt Jerry was talking about Garrett when he spoke about how this team is under performing. Jason deserves the job.
In three seasons, with Garrett running the show, the Cowboys will be 19-0 and be considered the best team in the league, like New Orleans and former Dallas offensive coordinator Sean Payton is three years into his head coaching experience.
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Points, anyone?
2007: 455
2008: 362
2009: 364 (est.)
Not exactly lighting the scoreboard on fire. And let’s not even get into late-season scoring.
The year previous to Garrett taking over, the offense scored 425 points (most since 1995) and ranked 5th in total yards.
These numbers could be interpreted to show that Garrett inherited a finely-tuned offense, which has subsequently turned into an inconsistent and less productive scoring machine under his tutelege.
Yes, since 1996 the O-line has declined. Yes, there have been some injuries. But in theory having the same offensive coaches and system and many key players in place for nearly 3 seasons (or more) should provide better consistency and production.
before injuies took their toll
the offense was again on great pace last year.
And honestly, the oline and their ablity to single handedly kill drive and take points off the board, in addition to folk’s problems, has made our scoring offense much worse than previous years.
On top of that, a scarlett0 said, we’ve failed to generate many turnovers at all this year, which hurts the offense.
Interesting correlation between points and turnovers...no?
The Dallas offense was scoring more when the Cowboys were producing more takeaways. The unmentioned factor is that improved field position leads to more points. The defense has permitted fewer points this season despite having similar numbers to last season in yards against.
The biggest difference? Opponents are starting further away from the end zone this season. When the Cowboys garnered more takeaways and had better starting field position in 2006 and 2007, the offense scored more points. Last season Dallas lost all but one game against opponents that had better average starting field position than they did.
Perhaps points is a function of more than just how well the offense moves the ball. It is difficult to look at statistics in isolation, but that is why I limited the measureables: in hopes of diminishing the effect of other variables. Points is such a statistic.
We can twist stats to look many ways. Do you think the Dolphins have as much talent from top to bottom as the Cowboys on offense? Chad Henne is not better than Romo….would you rather have their receivers or ours? Same at RB….where they have 2 good RB’s to our 3 good RB? OL….big difference there? Is Tony Sparano’s offense producing more with less talent? Pts/game….DC 22.8…..MIA 22.5….something tells me that Jason Garrett’s playcalling is a big part of the problem.
Here's something interesting...
Former Cowboys Assistants (who are presently the Head Coaches of other NFL teams) Seem To Be Doing Well:
Sean Peyton (former Dallas OC)/Head Coach New Orleans: 13-0
Currently 2-0 in December 2009
Norv Turner (former Dallas OC)/Head Coach San Diego: 9-4
Currently 2-0 in December 2009
Tony Sparano (former Dallas O-line coach/asst OC)/Head Coach Miami: 7-6
Currently 2-0 in December 2009
Is playing smart too much to ask?
We've let other coaches go as well
Todd Haley in KC. Mike Zimmer in Cincy us expected to get a Head coaching job soon. There are more, I just can’t think of them. We’ve obviously had some very coveted coaches on this staff and I will say I think I’d rather have about any of them over Wade Phillips now or when he got here. The biggest loss I felt down about was by far Sean Peyton; alot of people saw him being good, myself included. I really would have made him my coach in waiting and given him “Garrett type money” to try and keep him on Parcells staff. Oh well, maybe Garrett can be that guy.
by tyhall on Dec 15, 2009 5:10 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
good catch
i forgot about Haley.
okay. he’s the exception to da current bunch.
yeah. hindsight is always 20-20.
i gotta admit. i wanted Wade primarily because of the Phillips 34 he ran in San Diego.
haven’t seen much of that this season.
Is playing smart too much to ask?
by silverblue5 on Dec 15, 2009 11:42 PM CST up reply actions
Hey Coaches don't get their teams to win...Just ask Terry or Aussie..
Those players are executing without any help man!
That San Diego game was a the perfect example how not taking care of "the little things" loses games.
On the second and goal play at the one, Leonard Davis misses his block. On third and goal from the one, Free and Phillips do not adequately control their respective blocks. On fourth and goal at the one, Kosier gets caught up on Gurode and cannot get to the linebacker shooting the gap and blowing-up the play.
Then on 3rd and 12 after Ware left the field, Newman fials to jam the receiver to slow his progress downfield so the safety could have time to come over on the two-deep coverage. Newman also played poor technique and got caught looking into the backfield on the 3rd and 11 on San Diego’s first drive.
These types of breakdowns have been happening regularly all season. Successful teams do not permit these mistakes to continue as the season rolls on.
I despise using them as an example, but Belichick constantly expects better execution from his players, as does Tomlin. Norv Turner was known for being a stickler for detail on offense when leading the triplets in Dallas.
These types of breakdowns plague bad teams. Blame it on inferior talent, on dumb players, or laziness. It is the responsibility of the coaches to correct these mistakes and demand that the players improve, or find new players.
For instance, the offensive line is what it is: a collection of big, slow, thirty-year-olds that have seen better days. As Rafael noted in another post, those players are not going to improve much more.
Solution: get new offensive linemen.
The coaches are not getting young talent on the field to push the older players. The players are not improving and nothing is being done to correct the problem after several years.
Solution: get new coaches.
I happen to think that Garrett is the next Payton / Sparano / McDaniels
Dont bring me into that
That’s Terry’s argument not mine
The Knights season may have just ended, but the Cowboys year is just begining!
by aussie_cowboy on Dec 16, 2009 6:18 AM CST up reply actions
Nice post Scarlet
If Jason became the HC, who’d you pick for OC and DC?
by One.Cool.Customer on Dec 15, 2009 4:27 PM CST reply actions
Thank you!
I was hoping that someone would ask because I really do not have any idea who Jason would pick to be a defensive coordinator. I remember when Dom Capers was supposed to help Brian Stewart, but Brian was too insecure to accept the help. Imagine how nice it would be to have Dom and his top rated turnover generating defense prowling the new Cowboys Stadium right now…
OC
Brian Billick-OC of the killer Vikking teams.
DC
Keith Butler-OC for the Steelers. He has been around Dick Lebeau for 5 yrs. His LB’s play well year in and year out.
"No matter where you go, you are what you are playa"-Jay Z
Twitter Account
If Garrett got the job...
…I’d be looking for someone fresh to take over as DC… Perhaps a young Steelers assistant that’s ready to step out of LeBeau’s shadow…
The 2009 Dallas Cowboys: Talk to me in December.
The NFC East has won 11 Super Bowls; oddly none of those have come courtesy of the Eagles.
Garrett as head coach
fits most with Jerry’s MO of wanting to look like a football genius. If the team tanks to end the season, the lure will be to go get a big name coach, but I think Jerry’s desire to be “right” about Garrett being the next great thing will win out.
Do not underestimate that Jerry wants a coach that knows how things work at Valley Ranch.
Jones wants a coach that is enjoyable to work along side. Jerry has enjoyed the last three years with Wade, and the memory of the caustic Parcells is still fresh in his mind.
Makes sense for Jerry to hire a coach that acknowledges him as a GM and permits him to be somewhat hands-on. Shanahan does not fit this part of the coaching requirements, as Mike demands to be in control of every detail.
I'm not so sure he has "enjoyed" the last three years.
Unless you feel total incompetence is a good thing.
"Help, it's hot and dark in here and someone is laughing." Taco Bell
I really hope JG's our guy
Raf did a good job pointing out how Payton and Haley weren’t exactly lighting it up over here before they went on to successful careers elsewhere. Hopefully he doesn’t make the same mistake again.
D.C. is another issue altogether. I’m more willing to let Wade go the way our D has underachieved this year(certainly haven’t been terrible, but they’re not the play making, game changing D we expected), but I’m not certain we have a good D.C. already on the coaching staff. Maybe Jerry or JG have somebody in mind.
Epic Fail since 1985
jury still out on garrett
what game has the offense stepped up big in a pressure situation. its about scoring points, and when it matters, we can only muster 10 points against san diego. i would be curious to know how many of those points and yards come in garbage time.
it’s about scoring points in this league, and garrett in my opinion, has failed miserably. one can argue that garrett has also over the last 3 years had more weapons to work with than most of the league.
if he’s such a genius, than why does this offense keep making the same undisciplined mental mistakes over and over , isn’t that coaching?
if he’s such a genius, than why did it take so long for him to get felix involved in the offense last season, and more importantly, lets not forget that he wanted brad johnson.
the defense has kept this team in the hunt this season, and granted they have stunk it up in the last couple of games, but our offense has never come up big against a top tier team.
Based on our limited success, does Garrett really have the respect of his team?
The Cowboys offense won the game against the Eagles this season in Philadelphia.
Remember the Austin long touchdown pass that was the winning touchdown. Also remember that the offense ran out the clock with 4:27 to play.
Im sure JG has the ability to be an excellent coach. Heck i think thats true with most coaches that get fired. The main thing about a ciaching change is that its just that… a change.
A change in culture, methods, approaches. Would be hiring JG be enough to change the attitude of this team. It happens in the business world all the time, there is a reason the ceo’s usually come from other companies.
With that being said, i think JG is the best option this year. But i really dont see it making much of a difference unless they do well in the draft/FA period.
"On a journey to anywhere you can draw your own map."
i disagree
the cowboys defense held philly to 16 points at their place. The reason why we are struggling is because we do not score enough points. Is jason garrett not responsible for this?
Garrett is in total control of this offense, he’s got no head coach breathing down his throat, so his prints are all over this offensive. Payton had to wear a collar and leash with Parcells,
This offensive has been a disappointment, granted they put up great numbers, but don’t score enough points to take the pressure off the defense. How many times has this offensive put the defense under the gun with turnovers or dumb mental mistakes.
I think RedBall is going to be a great head coach somewhere...
and I just hope it is in Dallas.
I really don’t think there is anything wrong with the offensive scheme this year, it’s about the execution, primarily that of the offensive line. From missed blocks/bad reads (broken down by Mayock on the front page) to stupid penalties, it is the offensive line that is holding this team back. Scheme you can blame on the playcaller, but execution is up to the players. How may drivekilling penalties do we see every week?
Unfortunately, I don’t see it improving all that much all that fast. We have been horrible in drafting O-lineman, and we can’t rebuild an entire line through FA. Flo is on his last legs, Colombo may be done, and neither Kosier or Bigg are getting any younger. Gurode is solid for the most part, but he misses reads too. We may have a potential replacement at OT in Free, who has played fairly well for the most part in his limited time on the field over the past 3 games, but we stil don’t know.
I think you hit the nail on the head.
Dallas has struggled with long yardage situations because of penalties and sacks. Despite the inconsistent offensive line play, Romo has had his best season, Austin will likely become a 1,000 yard receiver, Witten still has his receptions and is a great third down target.
When Dallas drafts some better offensive linemen, this offense will reach its true potential. As long as it happens within the next few years.
likely 1000 yard season?
He’s got 3 games to make 1 yard. I sure hope with all my being he has 1000 yard season
Nice post ScarletO
I agree with you, I think Garrett will make a good head coach. The only reason I think he stayed after the 2007 season was Jerry and him must have some agreement that he will be taking over when Wade leaves, and it must be sometime soon.
You can't stop Patrick Crayton, you can only hope to contain him.
Garrett?
Did you see the four identical goal line runs to Barber last week? Yeah, he is a pretty awesome play-caller.
I'm not sure Garrett...
…would be looking to call plays anymore if he becomes head coach. I read somewhere that he had Cameron in mind as an OC and Cappers in mind as a DC and he gotten the Head job a few years ago. Not a bad staff of OC’s there.
Jimmy for example never called his own plays, he had Norv Turner, Dave Wannstedt, & Butch Davis to do that.
Garrett might excel in a similair role.
The 2009 Dallas Cowboys: Talk to me in December.
The NFC East has won 11 Super Bowls; oddly none of those have come courtesy of the Eagles.
Those plays were not identical
and if you run the ball four times and cant pick up a yard there is a problem in execution more so than playcalling.
The Knights season may have just ended, but the Cowboys year is just begining!
by aussie_cowboy on Dec 17, 2009 5:42 PM CST up reply actions
Whatever
Blame it on the players that’s fine. They deserve blame. But that was atrocious play calling plain and simple. And I blame the overabundance of offensive penalties on coaching as well. Well coached offenses aren’t penalized constantly (e.g. the Patriots).
Make excuses all day long but Garrett’s offense isn’t winning games. Period.
PS
Watch the video under the FISH post on the main page if you want to see a breakdown of why our offensive scheme sucks.
I interpreted that as more a criticism of our players on the line
and an explanation on why Garrett has to be unconventional in his run game to hide their weaknesses.
The Knights season may have just ended, but the Cowboys year is just begining!
by aussie_cowboy on Dec 17, 2009 9:51 PM CST up reply actions
That's what I took from the breakdown as well
I think Garrett had to just go with what the O-line does best, and it’s not the straight ahead, hat on hat, smashmouth style you would expect from a big line.
You can't stop Patrick Crayton, you can only hope to contain him.
by APerfectStar on Dec 18, 2009 12:31 AM CST up reply actions
Me too...
You have an opinion Taoboy, you are entitled to that. But I am as well. I repeat this now as I have been I am NOT a garret fan but I blame it on a bad goal line call, worse execution.
Marine by trade, Cowboys fan by birth.
I'm Just Saying
Spread 5 wide at least one of those attempts. Change it up. Maybe run from the shotgun on a draw or boot leg it with Romo. This is basic stuff.
That's right! Belichick's teams are well coached.
That is why the Patriots are 8-5, just like the Cowboys.
That is why the Patriots are second in total offense, while the Cowboys are just third.
Make excuses all day long, but Belichick’s offense isn’t winning games. Period.
Well coached
to let the Colts come back ALL because of arrogant playcalling. Not mistakes PLAYCALLING
Marine by trade, Cowboys fan by birth.
Er, right, I agree with some of your observations of what ails us, but
Make excuses all day long but Garrett’s offense isn’t winning games. Period.
That’’s because the other team gets the ball, too. So sometimes our defense is on the field. Sometimes the offense plays well enough to win, but we don’t anyway.
I do agree with your critique of the goal line plays to this extent—although they were not “identical”, they were way too similar, in formation and execution. I don’t have a problem with four running plays per se, but the last three of them looked alike. Seems like some machismo got involved there.
"We'll see." --Bill Parcells
Correct. Belichick is a good coach.
And yet Belichick’s team, despite having the second rated offense in the NFL is 8-5: just like the Cowboys. You compared Garrett’s coaching ability to that of Belichick’s, and closed with the line:
“Make excuses all day long but Garrett’s offense isn’t winning games. Period.”
Well, the same can be said about the Patriots this season. If Belichick is a good coach, but is 8-5, why are you slamming Garrett and questioning Jason’s coaching ability. An argument could be made that the New England offense has more talent than the Dallas offense (Brady v Romo, Moss v Williams, Welker v Austin, and so forth), and yet Belichick’s well-coached, highly talented team is 8-5…just like the Cowboys.
So if Belichick is a good coach at 8-5 in 2009, why is Garrett not a good coach at 8-5? By the way, go to:
http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2009/12/football-301-decoding-garrett-week-14.html
In order to get an in-depth analysis as to why Garrett did NOT call the same play repeatedly at the goal line against San Diego. It may also lend insight as to why I have mentioned the offensive line as a weakness that is limiting this team. Of course I guess that means Hudson Houck must be a bad coach all of a sudden.
The Best Way Measure an Offense Is by Points Scored
Total yardage isn’t a particularly strong indicator of offensive success. The Patriots are sixth in the league in points scored. We’re 13th. They’ve scored more than four more points a game than us. At 22.5 points a game, we’re barely above league average.
The Patriots are also a team in slow decline. They were a lot better back in say 2004, when they were marching towards their third Super Bowl. Comparing Garrett to Belichick is plain silly.
what if your defense and ST score points??
why does the offense get the benefit from that?? I disagree, I think total yardage is a very strong indicator of offensive success.
In Romo we Trust
When Adjusted for Turnovers, Yes
By itself, no. I found that out through statistical regression studies back in the 1980’s, which I’ve mentioned here on many occasions.
As for non-offensive touchdowns. Dallas has had three (two returns, one defensive), while the Patriots have had two (both defensive). When taking that into account, the margin between New England’s offense and our’s just gets worse.
What about field position...?
There are a million things u have to account for
Marine by trade, Cowboys fan by birth.
Not True
It’s not a million. It’s two. Yards from scrimmage and turnovers. Those two account for almost all of a team’s offense. As I mentioned, I researched that through linear regressions 25+ years ago, and it still holds true today.
My Regressions
Looked at every combination of statistics you can think of. Penalties, net punting, net punting differential, time of possession, kickoff return average, kickoff return gross, you name it, I looked at it. All that stuff is basically a wash. What matters is yards and turnovers.
but in your original post
you failed to even bring those up because they didn’t help your point. Which proves if anything stats can be manipulated to show whatever the individual wants if the have a personal/bias opinion on the situation. Hence trying to prove a point.
Marine by trade, Cowboys fan by birth.
Seriously...
So if Belichick is a good coach at 8-5 in 2009, why is Garrett not a good coach at 8-5?
Because he has won 3 superbowls this decade. That’s why.
PS
Scarlet— I liked that blog you pointed me to. That was an awesome breakdown (I will be reading it more often). But here is the author’s conclusion:
I also have to wonder the logic of asking the Right side of your line to win when Colombo is out. They never seemed to consider the left side. In goal-line plays, I know LBs are not always fully accounted for, because you don’t have a chance to get 2nd level blocks, but you obviously cannot have them slicing your gaps up and meeting your ball carrier in the backfield. This was a very poor result.
That’s what I’m trying to say. WTF was Garrett thinking?
What Bob Sturm did not mention was that the third down play was to go left.
Barber III was supposed to go left on the third play, but Gurode was beaten so badly that Marion had no opportunity to make the cut. Spagnola spoke of it on his radio show (12/16 Talkin’ Cowboys, I believe).
More later
Fine
No doubt the running plays were slightly different, but big deal. That was the same damn play four times (slightly tweaked). Here is what NYT had to say about the four goal line runs:
The times wouldn’t be as hard in Dallas had Jones retained Sean Payton, the former Cowboys assistant who turned the Saints around. Payton probably doesn’t call the same play four times in a season.
Exactly.
One more point: Why did Garrett go for the TD with 26 seconds left against the Chargers? Kick the field goal and you have time to recover an onside kick and maybe get back to the endzone. Instead he goes for the TD and leaves us with no time to do anything. Just saying…
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