Seven Statistical Nuggets (featuring Twins!)

Random statistical thoughts and musings as I take time out from building a shrine to Antonio Ramiro Romo in my back yard.

1. Tony Romo rocks. Hard.

Even the most ardent critics will agree that Romo's performance over the last 4 games has been outstanding. 111.9 Passer rating, 8 TDs, 0 INTs. But it's not like he hasn't strung together 4 good games before (except in December, of course). Luke. has a nice fanpost in which he digs into the numbers a little more.

What's really amazing to me though, is that he has now gone 4 successive games without an interception. Only one QB in the NFL holds an active streak of successive no-interception quarters (17) that's longer than Romo's (16) and that is, as improbable as that may sound, Brady Quinn. Nevertheless, 4 successive INT-free games is not something we've seen often in our franchise history.

Troy Aikman did it twice, in 1995 (5 succesive INT-free games) and 1993 (6). Roger Staubach once in 1977 (5), Craig Morton twice, in 1970 (4) and 1969 (4) and Don Meredith in 1966 (4). Lofty company indeed.

For those of you who believe in portentous omens, note that we won the division in each one of those years, made the Superbowl four times and won it 3 times.

Oh, and by the way, Romo is perfect in December against undefeated teams (hat tip to NerdVernacular), and rumor has it that he's been asked to join Free Reign, because apparently they're not rocking hard enough...

2. Shotgun Blues.

A lot of the criticism brought against Garrett and his alleged predictable playcalling centers around his apparent preference for the shotgun, and the numbers seem to bear it out.

Playcalling 2009 (excl. kneels & spikes)

With an 83% pass ratio when lined up in the shotgun, that is a pretty good indicator for opposing defenses what's about to happen. Similarly, when we're lined up under center, we run the ball 67% of the time. I had initially assumed that lining up in the shotgun had something to do with protecting Romo better, but he's actually being sacked more in the shotgun formation than when lined up under center.

Against the Saints, the Cowboys passed a season-high 16 times while lined up under center, a number equaled only in the Carolina game. In Garrett's playbook, lining up under center apparently is something you use when you're either ahead or playing it methodically, while the shotgun seems to be used more when we're behind and in desperation mode. This may not always be the wisest thing to do, as the following nugget will illustrate.

3. "Shotgun" vs. "Under Center"

Playcalling is obviously highly situational, and something that no amount of stats can adequately reflect. But I found it interesting to look at the Shotgun/Under Center splits by downs and pass vs. run.

Passing Splits "Shotgun" vs. "Under Center", through week 15, 2009

Looking at these numbers, there is no reason why we shouldn't pass more from under center. In fact, the best passing situation, with an astonishing 9.9 YPA is on first down from under center (ignore the passer rating, it is heavily skewed by TD/INT). Also, the overall completion rate from under center is 66%, but 'only' 60% from the shotgun, and our passing game is averaging one whole yard per attempt more (8.8) from under center than from the shotgun (7.8). And, last but not least, passing more from under center would add an extra element of surprise to our offense more often.

A key reason for why our numbers look better from under center is the stronger involvement of the TEs and RBs in our passing game.

Passing Splits by receiver, "Shotgun" vs. "Under Center", through week 15, 2009

Under Center, RBs and TEs are targeted on 54% of all passes (vs. only 40% out of the shotgun). And these guys are repaying that confidence nicely, with very high completion percentages and a YPA that is not too far behind that of Miles and Company. Oh, and passing more to the TEs and RBs would add an extra element of surprise to our offense more often.

And now for our running game. Excluding kneels and sacks, the Cowboys have run the ball 48 times out of 369 times they've lined up in the shotgun. That is a ridiculously low 13%. Is that because the formation is inherently unsuited for the run? Or because we're not getting the results we want? Here are the numbers:

Rushing stats by down and formation, through week 15, 2009

Lo and behold, our running game is actually generating better numbers under the shotgun. The average rushing YPA under shotgun is 5.9, while 'only' 5.1 under center. Obviously the runs from the shotgun are a small base, but with the type of running attack we have, mixing in a little more runs from the shotgun formation might not be the worst strategy. And by the way, running a little bit more out of the shotgun would add an extra element of surprise to our offense more often.

(Hat tip to Bob Sturm for pointing me in the direction of this nugget)

4. TD Drive Killers

For those of you who think about Roy Williams when you hear 'drive killer', think happy thoughts, as this is not about RW. 

So far, we have had 35 offensive touchdown drives. A closer look at those drives reveals some startling facts. Almost half (14) of our TD drives did not have a single 3rd down in the whole drive. Of the 236 plays on the 35 TD drives, only 30 were 3rd down plays. Needless to say, we converted all of them :-)

Also, out of those 35 TD drives, only once (!!!) did we score a TD when Tony Romo had been sacked during the drive. To round out the fearsome threesome, 25 of our TD drives did not have a single penalty against us. Here's how the numbers break down.

TD drives and the fearsome threesome through week 15, 2009

Surprisingly, we did have 9 TD drives where we converted on 3rd down twice during the drive. Of note, we had two successful TD drives against the Saint with two 3rd down conversions each. That is the first time this season that we've had two such drives in the same game.

5. TWINS!

The Texans are happy that at least one team from Texas managed to knock off an undefeated team.

6. Who needs 3rd down conversions when you convert on 2nd down?

With our 8 for 15 3rd down conversions against the Saints, our season average moves up to 39.8% which ranks us a middling 15th in the NFL. Somewhat surprisingly, we rank 6th (before the games today) in first downs per game with 20.9. So what gives?

DavidH22 has an excellent post in which he shows that in the last 22 second and 5+ situations (prior to the NO game) "the team has run the ball on those second downs a grand total of ZERO times. That's right...0-22." I jokingly said that that might be because Garrett is so afraid of third down situations, he’s going for conversions on second down. With a little urging from Mac_24, I went and looked up the numbers.

This season, The Cowboys have converted 36.0% of their 2nd downs into 1st downs. This is not a stat you can find anywhere except by going play by play through the playbooks, so I don't know how this compares to other teams, but I think this number is astonishingly high. If there was ever a stat that defined a quick strike offense, this is probably it.

7. Odd Man Out

In the last 5 games, Patrick Clayton was targeted just 9 times. Over the first 9 games, he was targeted 49 times. That is a significant drop. Who's picking up the slack?

Passing Target Distribution through week 15, 2009

Over the last 5 weeks, Romo has been targeting the TEs and RBs more during the first 9 weeks, while the numbers for the WRs have remained pretty constant. Spreading the ball around is always a good, so I can't say I feel too sorry for Crayton. And I guess if Crayton continues to find the endzone when needed, that's just fine with me.