Playoff Chances: Week 15

Another week has passed, and the playoff picture (for the NFC at least) has become much more clear. Here is how each team's chances of making the playoffs stack up...

As always, lets start the analysis with the NFC East. The most important change this week is that the Eagles are now guaranteed a playoff spot, and they are much more likely to win the division than to get a wild card spot. Another change, the Giants no longer have the ability to win the division, they are fighting only for a possible wild card spot. The division race is down to the Eagles and Cowboys, with the Eagles being favored obviously because they are a game ahead of us. No matter what, the division race should come down to the January 3rd game against the Eagles.

Elsewhere in the NFC, things have certainly calmed down and we are now in the situation that I predicted a few weeks back. Seven teams, fighting for six playoff spots. In the North, the Vikings have the division and the Packers have a huge chance at a wild card spot. The South is owned by the Saints, with everyone else eliminated. And the West is owned by the Cardinals, with everyone else eliminated.

As a side note, wouldn't it be nice to be in a division where a 9-5 record will guarantee you a division title and a top four playoff seed? Damn those lucky Cardinals...

In the AFC things are still much more cloudy, with an unusual abundance of teams with a 7-7 record. In the East, the Bills have been eliminated and the Patriots have nearly clinched the division. The Dolphins and Jets still cling to shrinking wild card chances. In the North, the Bengals still are the division favorite, while the Ravens have a great chance at a wild card spot, and the Steelers are still alive for the wild card. In the South, Colts clinched but everyone else is still (barely) in the wild card race. And in the West, the Chargers have clinched and the Broncos still look like a probable wild card contender.

Here is how the Cowboy's chances have fluctuated throughout the season...

And here is the same table in graph format...

via i576.photobucket.com

Overall things are what we expected them to be. 11 wins for the season gets us a division title, and 10 wins is iffy. 9 wins this season will probably mean sitting out of the playoffs. This is pretty much what everyone expected a while ago.

In terms of who we should root for this week: Seattle beating Green Bay will definitely be a nice surprise. It will give us a better chance to finish with a better record than Green Bay which could help with playoff seeding. Carolina beating the Giants would be a big help to us also. It would give the Cowboys a little wiggle room in case they lose one of these last games. And if Denver beats the Eagles, it would help us a little too in case we lose to the Redskins. But in all probability, the division race will be decided in a head to head clash on January 3rd.

So in closing, I will throw out a couple clinching scenarios. If the Eagles win and Cowboys lose, the Eagles get the division no matter what. If the Cowboys win and the Giants lose, the Cowboys clinch a playoff spot.

This may be the last week of the season that I will be bringing this report to you, because I am not sure if there is a point to it next week. Thank you all for reading, and I will be back about halfway through next season...