DREAMING BIG THINGS

OK Optimists, it’s time we take back over our piece of the blogosphere. We get drowned out amongst the pessimists (claiming to be realists) that saturate themselves in the filth that the national media spews. I don’t blame them, it’s easy to go with public opinion when your team disappoints you the way only this team is capable of. High expectations yield high remorse when unachieved. But us optimists, we bounce back easier then the rest. We are always one play away from immortality, and I post as much in the gameday threads lol. In between being the first to predict we were going to sign Suisham, and ranting about how three kicks almost killed us (McBriar’s last two punts cost us horribly in hidden yardage), I mentioned that I thought the completion of the Saints victory would be the landmark game of our next dynasty..

I feel like playing KDPdamus and see if I can predict how this thing is going to breakdown. If I’m wrong, this post drifts into oblivion… but if I’m right, I’m legendary J

Here’s the schedule over the next two weeks, with the playoff contenders in the NFC:

Saints – clinched #1 seed for all purposes in this argument

Minny, 11-3. @CHI Monday 12/28, NY Sunday 1/3 1pm

PHI, 10-4,  DEN Sunday 12/27 4pm, @DAL Sunday 1/3 1pm

ARI,  9-5. STL Sun 12/27 4pm, GB Sunday 1/3 4pm

GB, 9-5. SEA Sunday 12/27 1pm, @ARI Sunday 1/3 4:15pm

DAL, 9-5 @WAS Sunday 12/27 8pm, PHI Sunday 1/3 1pm

NY, 8-6  CAR Sunday 12/27 1pm, @MIN Sunday 1/3 1pm

We all know Dallas is winning the next two games, starting with Washington, putting us at 10-5. Is it plausible, possible or unlikely Denver beats Philly this Sunday? I’ll put it at possible because Philly is so hit or miss. We’ll put this down as a ‘swing game’ for our argument and return here later.

Arizona is beating St Louis Sunday, so that’s 10-5. Green Bay is beating Seattle Sunday, so they’re 10-5. New York will have a LOT tougher game than the mediots are saying (Carolina is a tough team to beat, but being at home should swing things) and will stay in the hunt at 9-6. But what about Minnesota? They are getting the Cowbooy treatment by the media right now. This whole Favre Audible-Childress Beard thing is gaining steam by the SportsCenter. I’ve always been a card-carrying member of the I Hate Favre club, so I am going to enjoy this downward spiral. Something is wrong with ADP (close to KDP, but not as much swagger). The quarterback is 40 years old. He’s beefing with his head coach. He folds down the stretch the last 5 seasons. You’re telling me that you are going to bet on him on a Monday night in Chicago after Christmas?? No. Chicago over Minny is my Underdog Lock of the week and Minny drops to 11-4… things are now officially interesting.

So that leaves us with Philly at home against Denver. Being that if we beat the Eagles we win the division, for the sake of argument let’s just assume they win and go to 11-4.

So with my predictions, we go into week 17 with the following rankings

1-Saints 14-1

2- Philly 11-4 (wins tiebreaker based on Conf Rec)

3- Minny 11-4

4- Arizona 10-5

5- Green Bay 10-5 (wins tiebreaker based on head to head win)

6- Dallas 10-5

OK, so we are still basically in the same position, final wild card spot, must win or Giants lose to hold onto the spot.

But when you look deeper, we are on the precipice of a bye.

Giants vs Minny and Dallas/Philly both kick off at 1pm.  Everyone has something to play for here. If the Giants can pull out the victory, because they think they are still playing for a spot in the tourney, Minny and Dallas are now tied at 11-5, but Dallas has a 9-3 Conference Record to Minnesota’s 8-4… That leaves Arizona hosting Green Bay at 4pm. If Green Bay wins, and they are still playing for the #5 or #6 wild card spot- who knows if that means they rest or fight, then Dallas finishes with a better record than Zona. If Arizona wins, they would move to 11-5 and have a Conference Record of  9-3 as well.

Here are the tiebreaker scenarios:

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

There aren’t enough common opponents, so the bye week and a divisional home game now rest on strength of victory. This means that they weigh the records of the teams that you have defeated.

Arizona has defeated:

Jacksonville 7-7

Houston 7-7

Seattle 5-9

Giants 8-6

Chicago 5-9

Seattle 5-9

St Louis 1-13

Minny 10-4

Detroit 2-12

(St Louis 1-13)

(GB 9-5)

60 and 94 strength of victory

Dallas has defeated:

Tampa 2-12

Carolina 6-8

KC 3-11

Atlanta 7-7

Seattle 5-9

Philly 10-4

Washington 4-10

Oakland 5-9

New Orleans 13-1

(wash 4-10)

(philly 10-4)

69 and 85 strength of victory.

That’s right folks. Dallas earns the #2 seed and a bye week, with a scenario that may not be the most likely, but is more than in the realm of possibility.

Your welcome. KDPdamus out.