Blogging The Boys: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook

Playoff Predictions: Props to Raf

Back in September, Raf offered up his playoff predictions for 09. With all 6 playoff spots in the NFC decided, and 4 of the 6 AFC spots locked up, let's see how he did:

 

The mainstream media carneys are all making fools of themselves with their predictions so I figure it's time for me to do the same.  Here, then are my picks for the NFL playoff field.

Longtime readers know, I'm the advocate of the "Fantastic Four" theory of prognostication.  As I've demonstrated in numerous posts the past five seasons, there are two trends in the Era of Parity. First, the playoff field churns roughly 50% from year to year.  That means that around six of the teams which made the playoffs last year won't repeat. 

The second, and more interesting stat involves the NFL's rebound factor. This decade an average of four teams per season which had losing records the previous year make the playoffs the following year. Thirty four teams have made this jump since 2000.  Look at last year's field.  Miami went from 1-15 to 11-5; Baltimore from 5-11 to 11-5; the Panthers from 7-9 to 12-4 and the Falcons jumped from 4-12 to 11-5.

And this happens every year. Since I've been touting this loser-to-winner streak, I'm going to find at least three more teams to make the jump.  This requires a leap of faith on my part;  how, for example, could anybody last year logically predict that the Dolphins would improve ten games?  Here, then, the picks

Star-divide

Loser to Winner in bold; new playoff team with *

AFC Field

 

  • New England, 1st East*
  • Baltimore, 1st North
  • Pittsburgh, 2nd North
  • Cincinnati, 3rd North*
  • Tennessee, 1st South
  • San Diego, 1st West

 

NFC Field

 

  • Philadelphia, 1st East
  • Dallas, 2nd East*
  • Green Bay, 1st North*
  • New Orleans, 1st South*
  • Seattle, 1st West*
  • *    Arizona, 2nd West

Star-divide

So far, so good. 5 of the 6 NFC spots, including 3 non-playoff teams from last year. The only miss was Seattle instead of Minnesota, but then again, who could have predicted that Favre would play so well? Seattle turned out to be a dud, but I agreed with his rationale at the time.

On the other side of the ledger, the last two spots for the AFC are still up for grabs, but Raf could go 5 for 6 here as well, with the only miss being Tennessee instead of Indy. And the Cincy pick was inspired, if you ask me.

Good job, Raf. (Of course, we expect nothing less around here.)

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Raf!

You wanna give SB predictions a shot, buddy!?

"What the hell is going on out there?" - Vince Lombardi.

by Nisri on Dec 29, 2009 9:43 PM CST reply actions  

Here are my NFC / AFC Championship + Super Bowl predictions...

I like the Saints. I don’t think they’re ready to fold so easily…

Cowboys over Saints in NFC

I think the Colts are over-rated. And I think this SD team is finally ready to step up…

San Diego over New England in the AFC

Who wins the Super Bowl? You really need to ask?

Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.

by DalaiLuke on Dec 30, 2009 9:10 AM CST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Dallas Cowboys blog for the SB Nation network. We talk Cowboys 24/7/365. Join the discussion but follow the community guidelines.
Start posting about the Cowboys »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Ns_08bstockb-thumb-200x185_small
Dez Bryant agrees to contract
Skipper_small
NFL 2010 Season Predictions
Tashard_small
Points Per Pass Metric, 2009 Season (All QBs)

Recent FanPosts

Small
Dez hurts himself so other teammates dont feel left out
Bitty-p_small
Dez Bryant's ankle injured?!
Christmas__08_small
Proposed Dallas trade: Free and 1st rounder for...
Small
Timothy Tebow's Contract
Miles_austin_small
Quincyyyyy's highly anticipated 53 man roster and 7 man practice squad projection
Small
To Eighteen or Not?
Skipper_small
Jimmy Johnson's Market Penetration
Tom-landry-1-sized_small
Stirring Up the Trade Pot-a Dash of Weaknesses, a Pinch of Strengths
Small
Ticket Packages
Small
How do we get a new CBA?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Latest NFL Headlines from SB Nation

SPONSORS

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Washington Redskins defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth signs autographs during the NFL football team's training camp and fan appreciation day, Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009, at Redskins Park in Ashburn, Va. (AP Photo/Nick Wass) +4 updates

NFL Training Camps News: Albert Haynesworth Fails Conditioning Test For Second Day In A Row

Trainers arrive to assist as Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant reacts while grabbing his right ankle following a play at afternoon practice at Cowboys training camp Friday, July 30, 2010, in San Antonio. Bryant, who was attempting to grab a pass, got tangled up with cornerback Orlando Scandrick. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez) +1 updates

Dez Bryant To Miss 4-6 Weeks With High Ankle Sprain

Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark is tied up be Baltimore Ravens cornerback Domonique Foxworth during the first quarter of NFL divisional football playoff game, Saturday, Jan. 16, 2010 in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Ravens Cornerback Domonique Foxworth Tears ACL, Out For Season With Injury

More from SBNation.com >


Editor

Head_shot1_small Dave Halprin

Lead Writer

Small Rafael Vela

Contributing Writers

Villaronga_small Raul Villaronga

Hotdoglu_small Aaron Novinger

Landry_and_fish_small Mike Fisher

Captain_small One.Cool.Customer