Playoff Chances: Week 12
by ender0887 on Dec 3, 2009 3:47 PM CST
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Because of the short week last week I was not able to get a post up. But I am back now, and here are the team's chances to make the playoffs after week 12. If you want an explanation on how my program works and how I came up with these numbers, look back at my previous posts.
For each team, their overall chance to make the playoffs, their chance to win their division, and their chance at a wild card spot.
| Team | Outcome | Total | Division | Wild Card |
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Bills | W Div | 3.1244% | 2.8183% | 0.3062% |
| Dolphins | L Div | 17.9475% | 12.7994% | 5.1481% |
| Patriots | L | 81.0308% | 77.3984% | 3.6324% |
| Jets | W | 12.5351% | 6.9839% | 5.5512% |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Ravens | W Div | 39.4527% | 5.2574% | 34.1952% |
| Bengals | W Div | 93.7209% | 88.9320% | 4.7889% |
| Browns | L Div | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | 0.0000% |
| Steelers | L Div | 30.5489% | 5.8106% | 24.7383% |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Texans | L Div | 8.7519% | 0.0000% | 8.7519% |
| Colts | W Div | 100.0000% | 100.0000% | 0.0000% |
| Jaguars | L | 48.0102% | 0.0000% | 48.0102% |
| Titans | W | 4.8838% | 0.0000% | 4.8838% |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Broncos | W | 66.3328% | 20.6187% | 45.7141% |
| Chiefs | L Div | 0.3072% | 0.0000% | 0.3072% |
| Raiders | L | 0.0671% | 0.0000% | 0.0671% |
| Chargers | W Div | 93.2868% | 79.3813% | 13.9055% |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Cowboys | W | 87.5120% | 60.0460% | 27.4661% |
| Giants | L | 30.7051% | 9.8236% | 20.8815% |
| Eagles | W Div | 72.1091% | 30.1276% | 41.9815% |
| Redskins | L Div | 0.0042% | 0.0029% | 0.0014% |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Bears | L Div | 0.4216% | 0.0000% | 0.4216% |
| Lions | L Div | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | 0.0000% |
| Packers | W Div | 69.5882% | 1.0687% | 68.5195% |
| Vikings | W Div | 99.9777% | 98.9313% | 1.0464% |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Falcons | W Div | 27.9587% | 0.1940% | 27.7647% |
| Panthers | L | 2.7389% | 0.0000% | 2.7389% |
| Saints | W | 99.9983% | 99.8060% | 0.1923% |
| Buccaneers | L Div | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | 0.0000% |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Cardinals | L | 83.0582% | 80.2714% | 2.7868% |
| Rams | L Div | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | 0.0000% |
| 49ers | W | 23.8033% | 18.0609% | 5.7424% |
| Seahawks | W Div | 2.1247% | 1.6677% | 0.4570% |
In the AFC:
Even with a loss, the Patriots are still the heavy favorites in the East with no one else challenging them right now. In the North, the Browns have been officially eliminated, and the Bengals are very likely going to win that division. In the South, the Colts have become the first team to clinch a playoff spot and their division, however the Jaguars make a strong candidate for the wild card. In the West, the Chiefs and Raiders have been eliminated from their division race, but have a very small shot at a wild card spot. Right now the Chargers are strongly favored to win that division, with the Broncos being a good wild card candidate.
In the NFC:
Our Dallas Cowboys are definitely favored to win the East, but the Eagles are still putting up a strong fight and the Giants still have a small chance (which we plan to change this weekend by putting them out of their misery). And the Redskins are obviously just about eliminated from playoff contention. In the North, the Lions have been completely eliminated from the playoffs, and the Bears have been eliminated from their division race which is very likely going to go to the Vikings. The Packers have a huge shot at the wild card though. Similar situation in the South, with the Buccaneers being completely eliminated and the Panthers being eliminated from the division race. The Saints are almost definitely going to win that division, with the Falcons being a legitimate wild card contender. In the West, the Rams have been completely eliminated and the Cardinals are favored to win that division. But the 49ers are still putting up a decent fight.
And here is how the Cowboys chances have fluctuated throughout the season:
| Opponent | Type | Outcome | Overall | Division | Wild Card |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Conference | W | 44.81% | 28.23% | 16.58% |
| New York Giants | Division | L | 33.61% | 18.48% | 15.13% |
| Carolina Panthers | Conference | W | 41.80% | 20.32% | 21.48% |
| Denver Broncos | None | L | 32.59% | 11.96% | 20.63% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | None | W | 37.52% | 12.66% | 24.87% |
| Bye | Bye | Bye | 38.11% | 17.28% | 20.83% |
| Atlanta Falcons | Conference | W | 50.77% | 24.53% | 26.24% |
| Seattle Seahawks | Conference | W | 64.16% | 32.79% | 31.38% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Division | W | 80.94% | 53.29% | 27.65% |
| Green Bay Packers | Conference | L | 72.96% | 48.03% | 24.93% |
| Washington Redskins | Division | W | 84.48% | 51.28% | 33.20% |
| Oakland Raiders | None | W | 87.51% | 60.05% | 27.47% |
As you can see, the win over a non-conference opponent did not help our chances too much, especially with the Eagles winning over a conference opponent. But I can tell you, a win over a division opponent this weekend will definitely make a difference. And we can hope that the Eagles lose to the Falcons and that the Redskins lose and get officially eliminated.
Here is the same table in chart format...
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Hello from my New Orleans Saints
Looks as though ya’ll are trying hard to add all the numbers to see where you fall out but. No matter how you shake it the Giants will beat your Cowboys this weekend. They have their backs against the wall so expect them to fight hard to dig their way back into contention. Your new found reciever (Austin Miles) has come on strong lately but his success has been against some really weak defences and I think NYG will cover him and stop ya’lls passing game and their front four will shut down the running game. I see this as a close game with NYG winning by three late.
Oh, by the way……………..We cant wait for Dallas to come into our house. We have a Perfect Storm waiting for you so hide the women and children cause it aint gonna be pretty.
A Saints fan talking trash
I never thought I’d see the day as I still remember the days when you guys would wear bags on your heads to all the games.
Funny, huh?
BTW, the Raiders defense has been playing much better than the GMen lately…just saying.
In Romo we Trust
I saw a dog today. Have you seen a dog? You probably have. How was school? Was it fun? Did you get a lot of homework? Huh? Do you have any friends? Do you have a best friend? Does he have a big coat, too?
by Aaron Novinger on Dec 4, 2009 11:54 AM CST up reply actions
Well, he must be worried about the Cowboys' chances if he's starting the trolling 3 weeks in advance.
Just cuz they beat the Pats doesn’t mean they’ll still be flying as high when the Dallas D rolls into the Big Easy.
I saw a dog today. Have you seen a dog? You probably have. How was school? Was it fun? Did you get a lot of homework? Huh? Do you have any friends? Do you have a best friend? Does he have a big coat, too?
by Aaron Novinger on Dec 5, 2009 8:00 PM CST up reply actions
I think ya'll need to
worry about the NYG right now………………..MYG 14……Dallas 10 at the half.. You got plenty of time to think about us. Nightmares more like it…………….
shoo fly
go back to putting a bag over your head, you can hide your in-bred stupidity better
"What we've got here is failure to communicate"
I hope
I hope U guys r not high on your self 4 beating up on a weak PAT D. I notice the panthers and dolphins play ya hard and close. The saints have a problem playing teams that can apply pressure and a have nicely built secondary. But off course you guys will c
Don't forget
The now 1-11 Rams. A little better clock management in the 4th, and St. Louis pulls off a nice upset.
Dallas is obviously far from perfect, esp. given tonight’s meltdown at the Meadowlands, but it’s not too late to salvage the month of December. Of course, the media will use this loss as fodder all week long.
You bet cha
Just cant wait. Drop kicked ya’ll last year in your house. This time ya’ll come to ours and you aint gonna like it. Maybe you should concentrate on NYG this week and we WILL see soon enuff.
+the real #9
I saw a dog today. Have you seen a dog? You probably have. How was school? Was it fun? Did you get a lot of homework? Huh? Do you have any friends? Do you have a best friend? Does he have a big coat, too?
by Aaron Novinger on Dec 4, 2009 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
Yep, you right
that game is still fresh in my memory and seems like yesterday. Damn, what a beat down. Cant wait to see it done again. I’m just tellin ya.
As fans...
…we don’t have to concentrate on the Giants this week. We are allowed to say, what if, about the next few games. I am sure this is not the attitude of the Dallas Cowboys, they are focused on this Sunday.
And for the record, I believe the Cowboys have a legitimate shot at ending the Saint’s perfect season. I’m not saying it is going to happen for sure, but we will put up a fight.
Please promise me
that the Cowboys will atleast play the whole game !!!!!!!!!! We really want to beat on ya’ll for 60 full minutes.
Please name one NFL game where a team did not do that.
As far as I know, NFL games are all at least 60 minutes. When I was in high school, one of the teams we played forfeited at half time, but I have never seen that in the pros.
It’s obvious you’re a Saints fan, because you don’t even know how to talk smack. Maybe when you win a second playoff game or are good for more than one season at a time, you’ll pick it up.
by Baked Potato Soup on Dec 4, 2009 4:21 PM CST up reply actions
New Engalnd Pats last Monday nite
They pulled the whole offensive and defensive starters with over five minutes left in the game. They conceded defeat so Payton called off the dogs and went to the run game only to finish running out the clock. The Pats still had two time outs left and never used them, They just wanted the beat down to stop.
The game still lasted 60 minutes, though, right?
It sounds like they were smart enough to not risk having their starters injured when there wasn’t enough time to come back, to me.
It’s all good. I know that you have never had a good football team to cheer about before, so you are very excited and want to flaunt your wealth like the newly rich. That area has gone through a lot with Katrina, the poverty, the filth, and everything else, so if it’s not the Cowboys in the end, I will actually be rooting for the Saints too.
by Baked Potato Soup on Dec 4, 2009 7:50 PM CST up reply actions
Now you Talkin.............
We have taken crap for fourty three years and now it’s our turn to talk some smack. All in fun. Everyone likes to hand it out but nobody likes to be on the other end.
My Eagles either come out strong
and take the second half off, or come out slow and go gang bangers in the second half.
"What did it feel like? That collision, I didn't feel nothing, because he was pretty much defenseless. It was like running through a cardboard box. Seriously. Cardboard box."- Sheldon Brown on his pounding of Reggie Bush in the '06 Playoffs
You better be concentrating
on the Giants cause they have a legitimate shot at ending ya’lls. Oh, did you read what you just wrote ? SAINTS PERFECT SEASON. You forgot to add……SUPER BOWL CHAMPS
Exuberance is fine to a point..
Until you dance into the middle of the freeway. I don’t think I’d be calling your team SB champs just yet. The Pats tried that a couple years ago..
u guys got Drew Brees
Drew Brees the same guy who playd in San Diego the same Drew Brees who was on his way out before they drafted Philip River. Hey a leopard never change its stripes. Your QB fold in pressure, Sean Payton makes him look good. But the Cowboys will snatch the wig and make up off this guy trust me.
This is great
I love numbers and anyone who adds a graph is worth reading. If I ever need to hirt an analyst for my team at work I’m gonna be hunting down ender0887
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